Food City 500 Betting News and Notes

Bristol - Driver Tale of the Tape

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Five wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.261, third-best
· Average Running Position of 13.750, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.5, second-best
· 750 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.266, fifth-fastest
· 7316 Laps in the Top 15 (63.5), seventh-most
· 563 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Five wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.250, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.296, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.1, fifth-best
· 438 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.184, sixth-fastest
· 8032 Laps in the Top 15 (66.8 ), fourth-most
· 796 Quality Passes, series-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, eight top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.522, second-best
· Average Running Position of 15.131, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.4, ninth-best
· 272 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.102, ninth-fastest
· 6615 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4), 10th-most
· 588 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Chase Elliott (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 9.500, series-best
· Average Running Position of 12.854, third-best
· Driver Rating of 94.9, fourth-best
· 36 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.387, second-fastest
· 685 Laps in the Top 15 (68.5), second-most
· 112 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, six top fives, ten top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 16.182, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.083, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.2, eighth-best
· 483 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.106, eighth-fastest
· 6512 Laps in the Top 15 (59.1), ninth-most
· 565 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.417, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.179, second-best
· Driver Rating of 95.7, third-best
· 650 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.367, third-fastest
· 8135 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6), third-most
· 689 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, ten top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.667, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.480, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.6, sixth-best
· 596 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.037, 11th-fastest
· 8012 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6), fifth-most
· 613 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, five top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.208, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.322, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.0, 11th-best
· 494 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.998, 12th-fastest
· 6751 Laps in the Top 15 (56.1), 12th-most
· 770 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Four wins, 13 top fives, 20 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.708, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.401, series-best
· Driver Rating of 100.9, series-best
· 628 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.347, fourth-fastest
· 9347 Laps in the Top 15 (77.7), series-most
· 763 Quality Passes, third-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion

· Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 15.929, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.042, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 91.5, seventh-best
· 242 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.102, 10th-fastest
· 4419 Laps in the Top 15 (63.0), eighth-most
· 543 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top 10s
· Average finish of 21.500, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.311, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.4, 10th-best
· 135 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.416, series-fastest
· 1731 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4), 11th-most
· 253 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.563, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.800, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.8, 12th-best
· 250 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.133, seventh-fastest
· 4066 Laps in the Top 15 (50.7), 13th-most
· 487 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 15.875, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 15.078, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 85.6, 13th-best
· 171 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.912, 13th-fastest
· 7764 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6), sixth-most
· 689 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Food City 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Alright NASCAR, enough of this weekend off stuff. I realize it was Easter and your season runs from February through November with little time off, but it feels like there's an imbalance in my universe when a weekend comes and goes without a Cup race. I'm looking for more pieces of the puzzle in this frustrating season as a bettor and then you guys go and leave me hanging to stew.

But then NASCAR, you redeem yourself with a race on the high-banks of Bristol's half-mile bullring where drama always unfolds with lots of tempers flaring. I love NASCAR drama. Come on driver, how about a few paybacks for some issues unresolved?

Way to come back strong NASCAR! And thank you for not having this anticipated race coming off a bye not be on another 1.5-mile track. By the time Mother's Day comes around in May, I'll be ready for a race at cookie-cutter Kansas. But Bristol is a great break in between, then next week it's Richmond and then right after that it's Talladega. What an outstanding lineup for the next three weeks.

Although there has been seven races on the season, none of the data gained can be applied to Bristol's unique configuration. Martinsville is a half-mile also and we saw Brad Keselowski win there three weeks ago making him the season leader with two wins. But the big difference with Bristol is the high banking making to set-up requirements completely different from Martinsville. They are as different as two half-mile tracks can be.

Dover is the track I compare the most with Bristol even though it's a 1-mile layout, but the thing that correlates well between the two is the high banking and concrete surface. So when handicapping this weeks race, I don't have a lot to go off of outside of current form and past history at Bristol. Because of the banking, I'll mix in just a dash of what happened at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Texas.

As for past history, the active leaders in wins are Las Vegas' own Busch brothers with five wins each. It's been a while since Kurt Busch won, though. While driving for Jack Roush, he gobbled up wins in bunches to start his career, but the hasn't won there since 2006. Overall, he's led 1.062 laps and has 16 top-10s in 32 starts. While driving for Chevrolet and Dodge, he never won, but he's in a Ford again like he was with all his previous success.

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 1,959 laps led, but he hasn't been his usual self there in the past three seasons.

“I certainly look forward to Bristol and I definitely have over the years, whether it was the old surface or when they repaved it," Busch said. "It’s been kind of frustrating a little bit for me on the Cup side since the (track surface) grind and I haven’t figured that out all the way, yet. We’ve had fast racecars the last several times there, but different things have happened that have kept us from being able to finish those races off and win another one."

Last season the younger Busch was 38th and 39th in the two Bristol races. Since a second-place finish in the spring of 2013 he's gone six straight starts there without a top-5. However, his current form makes him someone to consider this week. After finishing 16th or worse in his first three starts, he's finished third at Phoenix, eighth at Fontana, second at Martinsville and 15th at Texas. At Martinsville he led a race-high 274 laps.

One of the best drivers over the past three Bristol races has been Kevin Harvick, who won the fall race last season, finished seventh in the spring and was runner-up in the fall of 2015. He's a two-time winner at Bristol and comes off his first top-5 finish of the season with fourth-place at Texas.

Point-leader Kyle Larson has been fast everywhere this season with four runner-ups and a win in seven starts. However, his worst finish -- 17th -- was at Martinsville where he wasn't able to flex all his engines muscles in tight quarters with cars slamming at all angles against him. Since coming into the series he's been at his best on tracks with lots of room, most of which are the cookie cutter and 2-mile layouts.

Chase Elliott might be a driver to consider this week based on current form and finishing fourth in his Bristol Cup debut last season. He was 15th in the fall.

The past two seasons of races at Bristol has seen Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have the best average finish with 9th-place. However, neither won during that span and both have just one win there over their careers.

Matt Kenseth is a four-time winner, the last coming in the spring of 2015. He's currently sitting 22nd in points with just one top-5 this season (third at Atlanta). However, his past three Bristol starts have seen him finish 42nd, 36th and 37th. Ouch!

The best long shots this week look to be Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman, especially Bowyer. After being in a car the past few seasons that had no chance of winning, he's finally showing his true skills in a good car taking over for the retired Tony Stewart. Neither Bowyer or Newman have a win at Bristol, but I'm looking for both to be competitive and good bets in driver match-ups.

And of course if we're talking good current form we have to consider Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. These guys are good every week no matter type of track they're at. Keselowski won at Bristol in back-to-back races in 2011-12 and was runner-up in 2014. Logano finished 10th in both races last season, but won in the fall of 2014 and 2015. The main concern about betting Logano this week is that Kyle Busch still has a payback check he's waiting to cash and Bristol is the perfect place to punt someone and make it look like incidental contact.

One other notable mention in the long shot category is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who has three top-5 finishes in eight career starts. It's his best statistical track (10.6 avg. finish) and his Roush-Fenway Ford has been better this season than any of his past four seasons since being in the Cup series.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #20 Joey Logano (10/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (10/1)
5) #24 Chase Elliott (9/1)

Bristol Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Bristol

• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 8.0 average finish in the last five races, which used this weekend's tire combination.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts, including wins in the night race in 2014 and 2015.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 3.3 average finish in his last three starts, including a win last summer.
• Five-time winner Kyle Busch has combined to lead 529 laps in his last five starts.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished sixth or better in three of the last five races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Bristol

• Matt Kenseth has won two of the last seven Bristol races and led 142 laps in this event last year. However, He's finished 36th or worse in his last three starts.
• Series points leader Kyle Larson, who will also compete in the XFINITY Series race, led 90 laps and finished seventh in this event in 2015.
• Chase Elliott has posted a 9.5 average finish in his two starts at Bristol.
• Jamie McMurray (10.8 ), Ryan Newman (13.0), Clint Bowyer (14.6) and Austin Dillon (16.2) each rank in the top eight in average finish among all drivers that have competed in the five Bristol races with the current tire combination.
• Five-time Bristol winner Kurt Busch led 41 laps and finished third in this event last year.
• Denny Hamlin leads the series in average start (3.8 ) in the last eight races, which includes three poles. He led 19 laps and finished third last summer in the rain-delayed race.
• Brad Keselowski, who won the first short track race of the season, is a two-time winner at Bristol.
• Martin Truex Jr. has a top 10 driver rating in the last four races at Bristol.
• Trevor Bayne has posted a 10.7 average finish in his last three Bristol starts.
• Austin Dillon and Chris Buescher, who both finished in the top five last summer at Bristol, each had a good finish in the first short track race of the season earlier this month at Martinsville.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Kyle Busch
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Larson

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Bristol

Jimmie Johnson has finished in the seventh or better in four of the last five races, but has not led a lap in that span. He won this event in 2010.

Chase Elliott finished fourth in this event last season, which marked his first track start in the Cup Series. He led 14 laps and finished sixth in the August race.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has posted a 10.6 average finish in eight Bristol starts, which is his best track based on that stat. He's placed sixth or better in four of the last six races, including two runner-up finishes. Stenhouse has yet to lead a lap at Bristol and has one top 20 start - eighth.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 15 in his last five starts at Bristol. He led 148 laps and scored his first of two eighth-place finishes in that span in the 2014 August race.

Kevin Harvick is coming off his second Bristol win in 32 starts. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, Harvick has led 428 laps at the half-mile track, including 128 last summer. The most laps led with the team came in this event in 2015 when he was up front for 184 circuits.

Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five Bristol starts, including two wins. Both of his victories came in the August race in 2014 and 2015. Last year, Logano combined to lead 42 laps and finished 10th in both races.

Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 on three of his last four starts at Bristol. Newman has a 16.4 average finish in 30 overall starts and a 13.5 in his six starts with Richard Childress Racing.

Clint Bowyer has finished in the top 15 eight times in his last 10 starts at Bristol, including five top 10s. Bowyer scored his first top 10 (seventh) on a short track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing earlier this month at Martinsville.

Trevor Bayne has posted a 10.7 average finish in his last three Bristol starts, including a fifth-place finish in this event last year.

Kurt Busch has posted an 18.3 average finish in his six Bristol starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch, who finished third in this event last year, has combined to lead 167 laps in the spring race with SHR. His last of five wins at the track came in this event in 2006 with Team Penske.

Austin Dillon has finished 13th or better in four of his six starts at Bristol. He finished fourth last summer and scored a 10th-place finish in this event in 2015. Dillon's lone top 10 of the season came at a short track, finishing fifth at Martinsville earlier this month.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished second in this event last year for his second consecutive top 10 at Bristol. Overall, Earnhardt has 16 top 10s in 33 starts, including a win in the 2004 night race.

Chris Buescher finished fifth last summer to lower his average finish to 17.0 in his three Bristol starts. Buescher's best finish of the season with JTG Daugherty Racing came at a short track, finishing 11th at Martinsville Speedway earlier this month.

Paul Menard's last of six top 10s in his 12 Bristol starts with Richard Childress Racing came in 2014 night race - ninth.

Denny Hamlin has finished third in the last two night races at Bristol with his last top 10 in the spring race coming in 2014 - sixth. Hamlin, who won the 2012 night race, has combined to lead 597 laps in his 22 starts. He does lead the series in average start (3.8 ) in the last eight races, which includes three poles.

Food City 500 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

After a weekend off from racing, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series picks back up in Bristol for the Food City 500 on Sunday. Last year’s winner in this race was Carl Edwards. Edwards was not the type of guy that usually won five or more races in a single season, but this happens to be one of the courses where he has really thrived. Not only did he win last year, but he also was victorious in 2014. With him retired and out of the picture, both Kurt and Kyle Busch are the drivers that will have the most confidence this weekend. Kyle Busch won for a third time in Bristol back in 2011, and Kurt Busch is a four-time Food City 500 champion. Both guys will have a real shot of coming away with the win on Sunday. Another guy to keep an eye on is Jimmie Johnson, who won the last race before the break (O’Reilly Auto Parts 500). The active team that has had the most success in this race is Hendrick Motorsports, which has seen its drivers win seven times in this event. Chevrolet is the top manufacturer, as it has helped 22 winners here:

Brad Keselowski - Prior to Jimmie Johnson winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, Brad Keselowski was on fire. While the short break might have slowed his momentum, it’s still hard to go away from backing Keselowski in this one. Keselowski has finished inside the top-six in six consecutive races, and he actually won two of those events as well. He also has a victory at this race (2012), so he knows what it takes to get the job done here.

Denny Hamlin - Denny Hamlin has never won the Food City 500, but he does represent a good value this weekend. Coming off of two horrible finishes in a row, Hamlin is a guy that should really benefit from the short break. It gives him some time to clear his head and refocus his energy. Now Hamlin will look to win his first race of the year, and it’s only a matter of time before he does it. It’s not like he has been miserable here in the past either. He has finished as high as second in this race.

Kyle Busch - As previously mentioned, Kyle Busch has really been dominant in his time at Bristol Motor Speedway. Busch has won this race three times in his career, and it’s not like he’s not capable of doing it again. Busch is still a ridiculously good driver, as evidenced by his four wins in 2016. He has finished inside the top-five on the year in three of the past four seasons. He has also finished inside the top-five in two of the past four races this season. Look for Busch to come out with another strong effort on this track on Sunday, and don’t be afraid to back him.

Jamie McMurray - Jamie McMurray is receiving some very favorable odds to win this tournament, and there’s a pretty good chance he does just that. McMurray is very close to breaking through this season, as he has finished inside the top 10 in four of the past six races heading into this one. McMurray also happens to be improving at Bristol, as he has finished inside the top 15 at each of the past two Food City 500s. Look for him to take the next step on Sunday and don’t be shocked if he wins.

Doesn't look like this is gonna happen today. Radar shows damn near 100% rain for the next 16 hours. Sucks, I hate Monday races.

I hate Monday races but was worth the wait, turned out to be a entertaining race.

Yea, I enjoyed it. And it got me out of some yard work as well. Win Win