Food City 500 preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Last weekend there wasn’t any kind of racing in the three major NASCAR series. Can’t remember the last time where NASCAR didn’t have one race on a weekend, but that just makes the upcoming race more intensified. And what a beauty it is! We get to start the short track season at Bristol Motor Speedway’s one half mile, high banked, concrete surface.
Every season, twice a year at Bristol, we get to witness the most aggressive racing of the season. Drivers get angry during and after the race because the racing is so tough. Sometimes they take their aggressions out on the track whether it’s fast-balling their helmet at an offending driver’s car, or actually chasing a driver with their car with the only intention of slamming them into the wall. Other times the drivers wait until after the race to blow their steam, whether it’s chasing someone down on pit road or using the live TV cameras as their way to voice their displeasure with someone.
It’s all quite comical, but oh so entertaining, and what separates NASCAR from all the other sports.
This Sunday’s race at Thunder Valley has several legitimate candidates to win this week. The favorites this week begin with the usual of Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards at 6/1, but unlike most other races, a bettor has a great chance of hitting a nice payday above 10/1 odds. In this race last season Jeff Burton cashed in at 30/1 odds with his teammates Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer in tow making a nice Childress tri-fecta.
Traditionally, Bristol has always been a track where the favorites had always won, that was until the new surface was unveiled for the fall race in 2007. In that race, Carl Edwards won at 20/1 odds in what was only his 2nd win in two seasons. The main difference in the last three races with the new surface is that an outside groove has made it possible for drivers to legitimately pass, which in turn has had a huge decrease in cautions. In years prior, if a driver was slower, but wouldn’t get out of the way, then the faster driver had to push him out of the way because you could only pass on the inside.
Less cautions? Don’t worry though, tempers still flare even with an outside grove. Each of the last three Bristol races has seen just as much action off the track as years past, despite less cautions. Last season Carl Edwards won the fall race, but had to bump Kyle Busch late in the race to do it. Needless to say, Kyle didn’t have many nice things to say about Edwards in the post race interview.
This week’s top candidates to win that could pay handsomely again begin with the Childress drivers, or at least the three good ones. Harvick comes in at 12/1, followed by Burton and Bowyer both in the 20/1 range. At all stages on Harvick’s career in the No. 29 Chevy, the one constant for him has been finishing well at Bristol. However, Harvick only has one trophy after falling just short a few other times. Since 2001 when Harvick began, no one has been consistently at Bristol than him with a 9.6 average finish.
Clint Bowyer has also taken a liking to Bristol in the last two seasons that has seen him finish 3rd twice, 7th, and 8th. In the last two spring Bristol races, Burton has done better than anyone with a 2nd place in 2007 and winning in overtime last season. Those three Childress drivers are the ones that should be looked at with strong consideration to win this week.
The Kurt Busch long shot payday odds of 25/1 are long gone and he is now considered a favorite again at around 8/ 1 odds. He hasn’t run well on the new surface, but he really didn’t run well on any surface the last year and half. On the old surface, Busch was King of Thunder Valley. In a short time span, Kurt won 5 of 9 Bristol races, including three in a row at one juncture. Because of the new Penske engine that appears to have solved all their issues from last season, it is very conceivable that Kurt could start another streak and at the same time become the active leader in Bristol wins all by himself.
Denny Hamlin is at his best on short tracks and will be someone to definitely put in anyone’s odds to win wagering scheme in the 12/1 range or higher. Last season he finished 6th in the spring and 3rd in the fall. In that spring race, Hamlin was leading when a late caution came out setting up for extra laps where he got passed by all three Childress cars. Hamlin’s time is coming at Bristol, just not sure when it’ll be. It’s kind of reminiscent of Harvick who kept knocking on the door every Bristol race until finally winning in 2005. It took Harvick’s 9th attempt until he won, this will be Hamlin’s 7th start.
The top Roush entries after Edwards are Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. Both have great value in odds considering how consistent they have been at Bristol. Biffle has finished every race he’s started at Bristol, not an easy thing to do and has an average finish of 9.8 there. Kenseth is a two time winner on the track, however, both of those were at night in the fall and he’s had his worst outing ever at Bristol on the new surface. New season and new results though, especially for Kenseth, who could be live at 12/1.
Let’s take our chances and throw out Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards, and take our lumps if they win which is very probable considering Edwards has won two of the last three there, but it’s no fun that way. Let’s go with the theory that Edwards’ team isn’t the same as they were last year as evident of how they haven’t dominated their normal blend of cookie-cutter tracks. Then we’ll have to hope that Kyle finds trouble on the track, and then hope that the new Penske engine program is good only on larger horsepower tracks. After that you have the Childress drivers, Hamlin, Biffle, and Kenseth. That’s a lot to wish for, but it’ll make it fun. Those guys are favored for a reason.
1) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (18/1)
4) #31 Jeff Burton (18/1)
5) #33 Clint Bowyer 18/1)
Top 35: After Bristol, Current Points Determine Automatic Starts
Four races are down, meaning it's one to go before this season's car owner points determine the top 35 automatic starting spots on a weekly basis. For the first five races of each season, the previous season's final owner points determine the guarantees. This makes always-precarious Bristol seem even more so for those teams occupying space “on the bubble” heading into the half-mile oval next week. If they find themselves on the wrong side of the top-35 bubble post-Bristol, they'll be forced to rely on qualifying speeds to make the field.
As in recent weeks, three teams in trouble literally leap off the stats sheet, at first glance:
# The No. 5 Chevrolet driven by Mark Martin (owned by Rick Hendrick) is 35th.
# The No. 39 Chevrolet driven by Ryan Newman (owned by Tony Stewart) is 32nd.
# The No. 20 Toyota driven by Joey Logano (owned by Joe Gibbs) is 33rd.
Surprise X 2 = Reutimann In 12th, Earnhardt in 24th
After four races, there are a number of interesting developments in the points. Two come to mind immediately:
David Reutimann is 12th in the standings;
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 24th.
Driver to win the Food City 500
Carl Edwards +600
Jeff Gordon +600
Kyle Busch +600
Kurt Busch +700
Denny Hamlin +1000
Kevin Harvick +1200
Matt Kenseth +1200
Jeff Burton +1200
Greg Biffle +1500
Jimmie Johnson +1800
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1800
Tony Stewart +1800
Clint Bowyer +2000
Kasey Kahne +2000
Mark Martin +2500
Jamie McMurray +2500
David Ragan +3500
Brian Vickers +3500
Field +1200
Food City 500 PreQ
After a week layoff the NASCAR Sprint series will start back up at one of the toughest tracks on the circuit – Bristol Motor Speedway. That is fine with Carl Edwards, who rates as the No. 1 driver on our PreQ forecast. Edwards has just four top 10s in nine starts but two of those are 1st place finishes, which have come in the last three starts at the track. He has been strong on the short tracks over his last six starts averaging an 8th place finish with four top 10s and finishing every race in the top 20. He is looking to backup his 3rd place finish from Atlanta and has the skills to get the #99 Aflac Ford to victory lane in the Food City 500.
Clint Bowyer has been quietly keeping pace with Jeff Gordon this season. He has posted three top 10s in the first four races sitting in the 2nd position in the point standings. Bowyer also runs well at Bristol posting four consecutive top 10 finishes at the track with an average finish of 15th place in six career starts. It would be much higher if not for a couple of poor runs to start his career in which he failed to finish in the top 25 in either of his starts in his rookie season. Bowyer has run much better ever since then and is a contender for the win. Don’t count out the #33 BB&T Chevrolet for its first ever win.
It has been 45 races now since Jeff Gordon has been to victory lane – and you can tell it is bothering the team. Gordon has had a stellar start to the season posting a pair of 2nd place finishes and currently leads the point standings. Gordon, however, would like to end that winless streak and heads to a track where he has done well with five career wins at Bristol. Unfortunately, he has not been to victory lane since the 2002 season at the track. Gordon has to be one of the hungriest drivers to get a win under his belt and has looked to be the best driver to start the season. It is only a matter of time before he brings the #24 DuPont Chevrolet to victory lane. The question is will it be this weekend?
It has not been the best of starts for Casey Mears career with his new team in the Richard Childress Racing’s #07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet. He has a top finish of 15th place and has a pair of finishes outside the top 20 while sitting just 25th in the point standings. This after replacing the man in the car (although with the same team) that is in the 2nd position in the point standings. Mears desperately needs to pick it up or his time could be short with RCR. That may be difficult for him as he has not run well at Bristol in his career. In 12 career starts he has just one top 10 with just one other finish in the top 20 while averaging a 29th place finish. He finished both races outside the top 40 last season which does not bode well for him this weekend in the Food City 500. We recommend staying away from him for this race.
After a strong start to the season it has gone downhill for A.J. Allmendinger. Allmendinger took home a 3rd place finish in the season opening Daytona 500 but followed it up with a pair of finishes outside the top 25 before rebounding some at Atlanta last time out finishing in the 17th position. He has fallen to 20th in the point standings and for a team that may not compete for the full season desperately needs to run well week in and week out. That may not be the case at Bristol where he is averaging a lowly 36th place finish in three career starts without a finish in the top 30. Allmendinger may not run that poorly but can you afford to have him in your lineup if he does? Look elsewhere.
profantasysports.com
Food City 500 Driver Rating
For competitors and fans alike, short tracks are the sparks that ignite a deep passion for racing. Whether behind the wheel, or in the stands, for many the love of racing was bred on local short tracks across America. Which makes the next two weekends special. For the fifth consecutive season, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will travel to both half-mile tracks on the circuit – Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway – in back-to-back weeks. The excitement and high-charged emotions that come with short-track races energize all who watch. “The upcoming two-race short track stretch of the schedule offers the drivers a greater set of challenges, both from a mental and physical standpoint,” said NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Director John Darby. “If the average lap time for a speedway is around 30 seconds and the average lap time at Bristol is let’s say 15 seconds, then the driver has half the time to think and react on the race track. They are seeing the corners twice as fast as they’ve seen them so far this season. Things happen quicker and the drivers must react quicker. That reduction of reaction time lends itself to creating a new element of excitement for our fans and for our race teams.”
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Matt Kenseth. The 2003 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion began the year with his – and team owner Jack Roush’s – first Daytona 500 victory. That week, Kenseth embarked on a whirlwind media tour that might have induced a hangover in the following race at Auto Club Speedway. But all he did there was win, impressively.Kenseth led 84 laps and scored a Driver Rating of 131.4 at Auto Club Speedway, becoming the first driver since Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) in 1997 to win the first two races of the season. Over the first two races, Kenseth had a series-high Driver Rating of 122.7, a series-high 91 Laps Led and a series high Pass Differential (passes minus times passed) of plus-57. Additionally, he had solid numbers in Average Running Position (7.1), Fastest Laps Run (33) and Laps in the Top 15 percentage (87.3%).But then all the success ended as quickly as it started. It took six laps for his luck to end. On lap six at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kenseth’s engine blew, ending his bid for three wins in a row. A week later, at Atlanta, Kenseth again finished outside the top 10. He finished 12th at Atlanta and failed to lead a lap. Over the last two races, Kenseth has a Driver Rating of 55.3, an Average Running Position of 28.0, a Pass Differential of plus-8 and three Fastest Laps Run. Expect yet another Kenseth turnaround this weekend – at least that’s what the statistics suggest. Kenseth is solid at Bristol, winning twice and scoring top 10s in each of the last two races. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Kenseth has a series-best Driver Rating of 105.5, a second-best Average Running Position of 8.4, a second-most Fastest Laps Run of 223 and a series-best Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 88.1%.
profantasysports.com
Food City 500 HOT! Sheet
As you complete filling out your basketball brackets, don’t forget that racing returns this weekend and you need to fill out your fantasy racing lineup, too. One guy you may want to keep an eye on is Jamie McMurray. He started the season by leading several laps in both the shootout and his duel. Then, as you can see on the chart below, he has an average finish of about 13th in the last three events. Last August he came from 41st to 12th here. If you can get him for a decent price, go ahead and do it.
For the first of what will probably be many times this season, let’s talk about Jimmie Johnson. The three-time defending Cup champion hasn’t had an easy start to the season, but has shown signs of his winning ways. At California he led 74 laps and finished 9th. Then he led the most laps at Vegas, before finishing 9th again at Atlanta. He has qualified 7th or better in each of the first four races. If he does that at Bristol, another strong performance is looming.
If you’re looking for our lock of the week, take Carl Edwards. He, too, has racked up extra bonus points in each of the last three races by leading at least one lap. In fact, the #99 car is one of the only ones to finish on the lead lap in every race so far. The team is coming off their best showing of the year as they went from 29th to 3rd at Atlanta. He has done the back flip after two of the last three races here. Do what you have to do to get him in your lineup on Sunday.
Among those at the other end of the spectrum this week you’ll find Elliott Sadler. After nearly winning the Daytona 500, things have gone sour. The #19 car finished a lap down in 25th the next week. At Vegas it was two laps down in 29th. Then in Atlanta it crossed the finish line in 20th. Hopes are still high considering the Spring race at Bristol has been a better one for him. He is a former winner of this event, but we’d stay away for now.
Another guy who has had a similar start to the season is Michael Waltrip. He was doing a rain dance at Daytona when he was scored in 7th. But as the chart below shows, his average finish ever since is about 22nd. That includes the race at Vegas when he wound up two laps down in 27th, and also in Atlanta when he started 24th and finished 25th. He has finished inside the top 20 only four times in his last 15 trips to Bristol, so he would not be a good fit for your roster.
profantasysports.com
Food City 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
After one week off after his win at Atlanta Kurt Busch (and the "Blue Deuce") looks to continue his Sprint Cup domination as NASCAR heads to Thunder Valley, Busch's favorite track, this Sunday for the first of two races at Bristol Motor Speedway at 2 p.m. EST.
100% Win Bonus at Sportsbook.com
Bristol is racing's equivalent of the 12th man as the track itself is as much a story as the cars racing on it. BMS features two pit roads, which makes every pit stop an adventure for fans, drivers and pit crews. Qualifying is everything at Bristol so keep that in mind when investing on Sunday's race. This should give you a great indication who will likely race well and who will not.
BMS boasts 15-second laps and 30-degree banked turns. When the 0.5333-mile track was resurfaced in summer of 2007 they also added three extra feet so there are two grooves rather than one. However, now fans can experience more side-to-side racing rather than the colossal multi-car wipeouts that everyone loves at Bristol. At last year's Food City 500 42 of 43 cars finished on the lead lap.
How drivers fare at the Food City 500 is very important because the Top-35 teams in owners' points after the first five races of the season are guaranteed starting spots in the rest of the races for the season. If a driver is out of the Top 35 they'll need to get into each race on speed -- a shaky position for Mark Martin, who is currently on the bubble at No. 35. I look for drivers like Ryan Newman (32nd), Joey Logano (33rd) Scott Speed (37th) and Martin to really push is this Sunday to make sure they are in the Top 35 by the end of Sunday's race.
Who will win the Food City 500?
This is the first short-track race of the season and Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch go into this race with a decided advantage. Not only are they first and third, respectively, in the Sprint Cup points standings, they are also both tied with five wins each at BMS.
Kurt Busch won five spring races at Bristol in '02, '03, '04 and two August races in '03 and '04. Gordon has won spring races at Bristol in '95, '96, '97 and '98 while winning one August race in '02. But since the resurfacing neither of these two drivers has won.
"Concrete" Carl Edwards has dominated Bristol ever since the half-mile track was resurfaced. This Sunday Edwards will drive the car he used, and won, at Bristol last August. In his car "RK-596" Edwards started from the pole and ended up winning the race after leading for 84 laps.
If there is a downside for Edwards is that he is better racing at night than during the day at Bristol. Despite winning two of the last three races at Bristol he has never won the day race in spring. Last year Edwards finished 16th in this race, however, and I think this Sunday we will see the first back flip of the season.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (6/1)
2009 Food City 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
How dominant has Kurt Busch been this season? Busch won his first race of the season at Atlanta two weeks ago and looks to continue the trend in "PRS-594" which he named "Hot Rod" after the win at AMS. "Hot Rod" debuted with a fifth-place finish at California and after winning two weeks ago the car's average finish is second. The No. 2 car has finished in the Top 10 five out of six races run this year. In his last three races Busch has started no worse than fourth on the grid and has put Penske Championship Racing back on the map. Busch is in third place in the standings, 46-points behind leader Jeff Gordon, but is in great position to use Bristol to take over the points lead with another strong short track finish. While Busch might not win this week it is a good bet that he finishes in the Top 3.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (2/1)
2009 Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
I actually don't like any of the long odds drivers on Sunday. I am looking to back a driver that will race competitively and perhaps take the lead for a few laps. I don't want my long-odds driver to flame out in the first 50 laps. I'm looking for some longevity as well as return for my investment. BMS is where Elliot Sadler won his first Sprint Cup race in 2001. If there was ever a track built to suit the No. 19 Best Buy Dodge it's Bristol. Although Sadler's finishes have not been great since the resurface (27th in '07 and 19th in '08), he started third on the grid in 2007 and finished second in 2005. Earlier this year at Daytona Sadler led for 24 laps, which eclipsed his 21-lap lead for the entire 2008 season. If Sadler can qualify well at Bristol don't count him out.
Pick! Elliot Sadler, No. 19, (30/1)
Docsports.com
Anyone pitting on the backstretch is doomed.
Happy Hour practice for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway is over, the top five
#11-Hamlin 123.372
#39-Newman 123.245
#24-Gordon 122.953
#18-Busch 122.795
#00-Reutimann 122.756
Slowest: #64-Bodine 118.782 and #09-Marlin 119.417
Jayski.com
Food City 500 PostQ
Will this finally be the week that Jeff Gordon ends his winless drought? It has been almost 50 races since the #24 DuPont Chevrolet driver has been to victory lane and he is desperate for a win. Gordon could make that left hand turn into victory circle if our PostQ forecast holds to be true. Gordon does run well at this track ranking in the 3rd position in NASCAR’s Driver Rating category at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has held true to form this weekend qualifying in the 10th position while ranking as the 13th quickest on our Speed chart. Gordon should at least be able to maintain the points lead even if he doesn’t get the win but we except there will be plenty to celebrate for the veteran driver after the Food City 500.
Greg Biffle struggled mightily last time out in Atlanta posting a 34th place finish – his worst of the season dropping six spots in the point standings. He is determined to run better this weekend and looks to have one of the cars to beat. Biffle has posted six top 10s in the last eight starts at Bristol with zero finishes outside the top 20. He has once again looked strong qualifying in the 4th position while ranking 16th on our Speed chart. Biffle has the ability to contend for a championship but can ill afford a finish like he had in Atlanta. Expect a much better performance out of the #16 3M Ford this weekend.
The driver that ranked as the No. 1 driver on our PreQ forecast, Carl Edwards, made a huge drop on the PostQ forecast. Edwards will be starting from the back of the pack in the 38th position. That virtually guarantees he will be a lap down after about 25-30 laps on the .533-mile short track of Bristol. He has not looked any better in the practice sessions either ranking the slowest of all cars in the second practice session. He followed that up posting the 30th quickest time during Happy Hour. It has certainly not been what Edwards was expecting when the team unloaded the car at the track. He can still record a decent finish but it will be extremely difficult as he will have to battle from the start. We would look elsewhere for a top tier driver for this race.
profantasysports.com