Food City 500 preview
By Micah Roberts
The first four weeks of NASCAR Sprint Cup racing brought us to some of the tours fastest tracks beginning with the restrictor plates at Daytona and the last three weeks at high speed down force tracks. This week at Bristol is the beginning of the short track season where we’ll see cars bumping at banging at much lower speeds, which often springboards into some heated confrontations among the drivers.
We saw NASCAR open “Pandora’s Box” last week with their lack of punishment on Carl Edwards for punting Brad Keselowski in Atlanta. It was good a decision on NASCAR’s part to hold true to their statements made before the season started that NASCAR would loosen things up and let the drivers show more personality and emotion on the track.
The faster tracks aren’t typically the type of places where drivers send a message at, but even with looming fines and penalties, the short tracks have always been somewhat of a drivers’ kangaroo court. With seemingly no repercussions other than probation, like Edwards received for his admitted punt, there looks to be a lot of loose cannons on the track just waiting to show off how bad they can be with their form of justice.
Bristol used to be one of the more volatile tracks on tour where multiple drivers were bumped out of the way as they all fought for the all important low line of position. Since the re-paving for the fall race in 2007, things haven't been as wild as they used to be because drivers can race equally fast high or low.
Now, if a driver won’t move for a faster car behind him, the faster car can just move up high for the pass and not lose much speed in the process. It has eliminated the so-called ”love taps” and has also shrunk the amount of bouts following the race, which many times were just as entertaining as the race itself.
Instead of being the unique track it was, Bristol now runs similar to Dover. The track is still the fastest half-mile track in the world and it still has the largest fan base of all tracks, making it still unique, but it will never offer the same type of racing as most of us remember it.
One of the drivers who should flourish under the new proven policy of NASCAR is Las Vegan Kyle Busch. For the last two seasons he’s been NASCAR’s whipping boy with multiple trips to the trailer, which is like being sent to the principal’s office in grade school. Busch has had a tangle with just about everyone on the track during his short career, including his own brother during an All-Star race.
The combination of not running as well as he’d like and also the multiple tongue-lashings from NASCAR has quieted him down somewhat, but you have to believe that he is just waiting for his chance to shine in the new NASCAR.
For the last two seasons, Busch has been one of the only drivers to liven things up. He’s played that villain that every era of NASCAR needs and he somewhat relishes in it. But it’s hard to play that role lately because he isn’t winning, nor is he coming close.
Thus far into the season, Busch doesn’t have one top-10 finish on tracks that he typically does well at. He still sits No. 15 in points, but that isn’t good enough or acceptable for Busch. In his last two seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing he’s had a win by this juncture as well as multiple top-5 finishes.
All that early season momentum has usually translated well coming into Bristol. Last year he won both Bristol races, sweeping the season for the first time since his brother did it in 2003. He is Bristol’s active leader in career average finish at 10.2 among all drivers with at least three races on the track.
Busch was even good on the old configuration winning the first race ever in the new COT in the spring of 2007, the last race under the old format. Could this be the week that he finally gets back on track with a good win? It sure looks like it, but it’s tough to pull the trigger just because of the lull he’s in right now.
The driver who has been almost as consistent as Busch since the changes to the track has been Denny Hamlin who has a streak of three straight top-5 finishes along with a sixth-place finish in his last four starts. But Hamlin is in the same boat as Busch coming in; no top-10 finishes in any of the four races thus far.
Carl Edwards has been the talk of NASCAR world over the last week. He won the first race on the new surface in 2007 and followed that night race with another in 2008. However, as the changes to his team sent Edwards from being close to winning every week in 2008 to not winning at all in 2009. Last season Edwards was very average at Bristol and based on the way things have gone thus far, it doesn’t look to change.
Because the track runs somewhat like a mini-Dover, and because he’s started so uncharacteristically fast, we have to look at Jimmie Johnson as a candidate to have maybe his best run ever at Bristol. It’s one of the few tracks Johnson has yet to win on among his 49 career wins. He swept Dover last season and finished eighth and third last season at Bristol.
During Mark Martin’s part time schedule as was easing into retirement, he had skipped Bristol for two seasons. When he rolled up last year he came strong with a sixth and second. Look for Martin to be a strong contender Sunday.
Teammates Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman haven’t made any noise this season yet, but that should change this week as they’ll contend and likely have their best combined performance of the year. Newman finished sixth and seventh in both races last season.
The Childress group figures to be just as good as ever at Bristol and continue their strong run through the standings. Jeff Burton won this race in 2008 and his two side kicks, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer, were almost as good the same year. It was an off year for the entire organization last year, but they all look good to go based on the first four races. They should all have good cars this week with each capable of winning.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #33 Clint Bowyer (18/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
4) #29 Kevin Harvick (14/1)
5) #5 Mark Martin (10/1)
Driver Highlights - Bristol
Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Kingsford/Scott Branded Products Toyota)
# One top five, two top 10s
# Average finish of 6.5
# Series-best Average Running Position of 7.5
# Series-best Driver Rating of 108.2
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.396 mph
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Five top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 11.5
# Average Running Position of 11.6, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 99.3, fourth-best
# 216 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.255 mph, fourth-fastest
# 3,956 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), third-most
# 205 Quality Passes, second-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
# Five wins, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.8
# Average Running Position of 13.9, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 91.7, ninth-best
# 146 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# 382 Green Flag Passes, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.096 mph, ninth-fastest
# 3,241 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), seventh-most
# 174 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
# Three wins, five top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 10.2
# Average Running Position of 12.6, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 105.6, second-best
# Series-high 397 Fastest Laps Run
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.338 mph, third-fastest
# 3,394 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7%), fourth-most
# 202 Quality Passes, third-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
# One win, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 11.7
# Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
# Driver Rating of 89.0, 11th-best
# Series-high 456 Green Flag Passes
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.048 mph, 10th-fastest
# 2,970 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), 10th-most
# 180 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# Two wins, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.1
# Average Running Position of 14.7, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 88.2, 12th-best
# 220 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 113.984 mph, 13th-fastest
# 3,196 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8%), eighth-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
# Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
# Average finish of 11.6
# Average Running Position of 9.3, second-best
# Driver Rating of 100.1, third-best
# 166 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.202 mph, seventh-fastest
# Series-high 4,076 Laps in the Top 15 (81.3%)
# 194 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# Three top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 11.6
# Average Running Position of 13.3, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 98.9, fifth-best
# 238 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# 359 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.367 mph, second-fastest
# 2,815 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), 13th-most
# 162 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
# One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.3
# Average Running Position of 12.7, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.5, eighth-best
# 179 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 373 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.204 mph, sixth-fastest
# 3,317 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), fifth-most
# 166 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
# Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 20.0
# Driver Rating of 87.5, 13th-best
# 152 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 325 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
# Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.1
# Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
# Driver Rating of 97.5, sixth-best
# 228 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.143 mph, eighth-fastest
# 4,020 Laps in the Top 15 (80.2%), second-most
# 190 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
# Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
# Average finish of 12.4
# Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 89.5, 10th-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.002 mph, 11th-fastest
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
# One win, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 17.1
# Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 94.7, seventh-best
# 226 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.240 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,852 Laps in the Top 15 (56.9%), 12th-most
# 159 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Bristol Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 5 of 36 (3-21-10)
Track Size: .533 miles
Race Length: 500 laps/266.5 miles
Banking/Corners: 26 to 30 degrees
Banking/Straights: 4 to 9 degrees
Driver Rating at Bristol
Marcos Ambrose 108.2
Kyle Busch 105.6
Jeff Gordon 100.1
Greg Biffle 99.3
Denny Hamlin 98.9
Matt Kenseth 97.5
Tony Stewart 94.7
Kevin Harvick 93.5
Kurt Busch 91.7
Mark Martin 89.5
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Bristol.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Mark Martin, 125.773 mph, 15.256 seconds
2009 race winner: Kyle Busch, 92.139 mph, 3-22-09)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (128.709 mph, 14.908 seconds, 3-21-03)
Track race record: Charlie Glotzbach (101.074 mph, 7-11-71)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 120-130 laps, based on fuel mileage.
Driver Handicaps: Bristol
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns after an off-weekend to race on the first short track of the season in Sunday's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 500-lap event.
Who's HOT at Bristol
• Kyle Busch has three wins and has led 900 laps with the COT.
• Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch each are five-time winners.
• Mark Martin posted an overall average finish of 4.0 in both races last season.
• Marcos Ambrose finished in the top 10 in his first two starts.
• Clint Bowyer and Dale Earnhardt Jr. each have finishing averages of 10.0 or better with the COT.
• Denny Hamlin was the only other driver besides Busch to finish in the top five in both races in 2009.
• Jimmie Johnson combined to lead 195 en route to two top 10s last season.
• Carl Edwards has two wins and a 10.2 average finish with the COT.
Keep an Eye on at Bristol
• Bristol is Kevin Harvick's best track on the circuit with 10 or more starts based on average finish of 12.3.
• Tony Stewart has led 524 laps with the COT at Bristol.
• Ryan Newman is driving the same car that earned top-10 finishes in four events on concrete in 2009.
• Greg Biffle has a top five driver rating over the past 10 races.
• Jeff Burton has recorded one win and six top 10s with Richard Childress Racing at Bristol.
• Kasey Kahne scored his fourth Bristol top five in this event last year.
COT Performers
Kyle Busch leads all drivers in just about every stat with the new car at Bristol Motor Speedway. His finishing average (5.2) tops all drivers that have competed in all six races with the car. Busch has led 900 laps with the COT with his closest competitor Tony Stewart second with 524. Mark Martin (2 races), Marcos Ambrose (2 races), Clint Bowyer and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are the only drivers with average finishes of 10.0 or better with the COT. Last year, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson posted average finishes of 3.5 and 5.5, respectively.
MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Denny Hamlin
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Rachael West: Kyle Busch
Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Bristol Motor Speedway unless noted)
1. Kevin Harvick: Best track on the circuit with 10 or more starts based on average finish of 12.3; Winner of the 2005 spring race; Finished 30th and 38th, respectively in 2009; 15.7 average finish in six starts with the new car; Will race the same car (chassis No. 281) that finished second at Atlanta last September.
2. Matt Kenseth: Winner of the 2005 and 2006 summer races; Coming off 12th top 10 in 20 starts; 18.7 average finish in six starts with the new car.
3. Greg Biffle: Coming off fifth top five in 14 starts; Qualified fourth and finished 39th in this event last year after the engine expired; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 608) that finished 10th at Las Vegas last month.
4. Jimmie Johnson: Has finished in the top 10 and led 195 laps in last two starts; Equaled best finish (third) in this event last year; 16.5 average finish in six starts with the new car; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 480) that finished eighth last summer at Bristol.
5. Clint Bowyer: Second-best average finish (9.2) among all drivers that have competed in all six races with the new car; Best finish is third, where he has finished twice (August 2007 and March 2008); Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 268) that finished 10th at Dover last June and third at Pocono last August.
6. Jeff Burton: Winner of the 2008 spring race; Has recorded six top 10s with Richard Childress Racing; Finished eighth in this event last year; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 293) that finished 11th at Las Vegas last month.
7. Mark Martin: Won both poles and posted an average finish of 4.0 in first two starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Previous 21 top 10s came with Roush Racing; Last of two victories came in 1998.
8. Tony Stewart: Winner of the 2001 summer race; Posted a 25.0 average finish in first two starts with Stewart-Haas; 18.5 average finish in six starts with the new car; Scored seven top 10s in 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 530) that posted three top 10s in 2009, most recently Martinsville in the fall.
9. Paul Menard: 24.2 average finish in five starts; Best finish (16th) came in the 2008 night race; Will be behind the wheel of a car (chassis No. 556) that raced on many occasions in 2009, but has been rebuilt for this season.
10. Kurt Busch: Five-time winner; Has posted one win and three top 10s in eight starts with Penske Racing; Four other wins came with Roush Racing; 13.3 average finish in six starts with the new car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 709) in the Food City 500.
11. Jeff Gordon: Five-time winner; 10.8 average finish in six starts with the new car; Finished in the top five in two of his last three starts; Leads all drivers with 2,438 laps led.
12. Scott Speed: 21.5 average finish in two starts; Coming off best finish in 15th after starting third.
13. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 11.5 average finish in four starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Scored one win and nine top 10s with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. in previous 16 starts; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 556) that recently finished 16th at Las Vegas in February.
14. Joey Logano: 36.0 average finish in two starts; Finished 38th in this event last year after the engine expired; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 231) that finished 34th in the 2009 Bristol night race.
15. Kyle Busch: Swept both races in 2009; Has combined to lead 861 laps in last three races; Won the 2007 spring race with Hendrick Motorsports; Will make fifth track start with Joe Gibbs Racing in the same car (chassis No. 254) that most recently finished eighth at Homestead.
16. Brian Vickers: Has yet to post a top-10 finish in 11 starts; Posted an average finish of 23.0 in five starts with Team Red Bull; Equaled best finish last summer in 12th.
17. Kasey Kahne: Recorded fourth top five in this event last year; Led 305 laps en route to a runner-up finish in this event in 2007; 16.8 average finish in six starts with the new car.
18. David Reutimann: 18.5 average finish in four starts; Best finish came in this event last year in 12th.
19. Jamie McMurray: Will make first track start in a Earnhardt-Ganassi Chevrolet; 23.0 average finish in the new car with Roush Fenway; Scored three consecutive top 10s with Ganassi early in his career; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 031) that finished 19th at New Hampshire last season with driver Martin Truex Jr.
20. Carl Edwards: Winner of the 2007 and 2008 summer races; Finished 15th in this event last year; Fourth-best average finish (10.2) among drivers that have competed in all six races with the new car; Has led 266 laps with the new car; Will race the same car (chassis No. 596) that finished 16th at Bristol last fall.
21. Juan Pablo Montoya: One top-10 finish in six starts came in this event last year; Average finish is 19.5; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 903) that finished in the top 10 at Michigan in June and Chicagoland in July in 2009.
22. Denny Hamlin: Came from the back of the field and a lap down to finish fifth last summer; Has finished in the top 15 in each of his eight starts; Top-five finishes in last three races, with a best finish of second last spring; Has led 282 laps in three races; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 259) in the Food City 500.
23. AJ Allmendinger: Best 16th-place finish last year in this race; 32.4 average finish in five starts; Piloting chassis No. 288, which was last run as the No. 44 last September to a seventh-place finish at Dover.
24. Martin Truex Jr: Yet to score a top-10 finish in eight starts; Best finish of 11th came in August of 2007; Average finish is 25.0; Tied with Kyle Busch for passing the most cars (426) under green while running in the top 15; Site of first career NASCAR Nationwide race in 2004.
25. Elliott Sadler: Scored his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup victory in this race in 2001 while driving a Ford; Three top fives and four top 10s with an average finish of 22.9 in 23 starts; Last top-10 finish was in this race in 2005; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 278) in the Food City 500.
26. Regan Smith: Average finish of 23.0 in four starts; Best finish of 14th came in summer event of 2008.
27. David Ragan: Best finish in six starts was 10th in fall of 2008, which is his only top 10; Won the 2009 summer NASCAR Nationwide Series race; Will be behind the wheel of the same car (chassis RK-670) that last raced to 18th-place finish at Homestead-Miami in 2009.
28. Marcos Ambrose: Two top-10 finishes in both career starts; Finished third last summer; Has best average finish (6.5) of all active drivers.
29. Ryan Newman: One top-five finish in 16 starts came in second 2004 race; Finished seventh and sixth in two track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009; Nine total top-10 finishes; Holds the current qualifying record of 128.709 mph from this race in 2003; Piloting the same car (chassis No. 516) that earned top-10 finishes in four events on concrete in 2009.
30. Bobby Labonte: Making 35th career track start; Three top fives and 10 top-10s with an average finish of 19.9; Last top 10 was an eighth-place result in summer of 2007 with Petty Enterprises; Will debut a new chassis (No. 248) in the Food City 500.
NASCAR Betting Preview
By Greg Engle
After a rare week off, the NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to the world's fastest half-mile this weekend Bristol Motor Speedway, for a short track edge of your seat battle where the outcome is always far from certain.
Favorites
Kurt Busch (+1,200)
Busch is the latest winner at Atlanta two weeks ago. He's also one of two active drivers who are tied for the most wins at Bristol (5). In addition to his five wins, he has top five and 10 Top 10s along with a pole. The entire team has stepped up their game this season and that showed in Atlanta. There's no reason Busch can't continue his winning ways this weekend.
Jeff Gordon (+1,000)
Gordon shares the record for most wins by an active driver at Bristol with Busch. He also has 14 Top 5s, 20 Top 10s and five poles. Just looking at numbers you'd think Gordon would be a clear favorite over Busch, he even has a better average finishing position, 11.6 to Busch's 13.8. But Gordon and his Hendrick crew seemed to have yet found the spark that will light them up. He's still a threat and a favorite every week - just not the favorite this week.
Matt Kenseth (+2,000)
Kenseth was absolutely giddy after finishing second at Atlanta. And why shouldn't he be? After a year he'd rather forget, Kenseth is starting this season with some strong runs. In the first four races of the season, he has not finished outside the Top 10 and has progressively improved his finishes from eighth in the Daytona 500 to second at Atlanta. At Bristol Kenseth has two wins, seven Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and one pole. He's hot and could get hotter this weekend.
Others to watch
Kyle Busch (+700)
The younger Busch brother finished 25th in Atlanta after being swept up in an accident not of his own doing. Before that though, the team just couldn't find the handle on the car which seems to be the story of their season. He does have three wins, five Top 5s and seven Top 10s here. And since Bristol relies more on power than handling, Busch could be a factor Sunday.
Kevin Harvick (+1,200)
Harvick began the season hot but seems to have cooled a bit in the ensuing weeks. His ninth-place finish in Atlanta came off two consecutive second place finishes. Harvick has won here before and has nine Top 5s and 11 Top 10s. If he and the RCR crew can find a little of their early season magic they could be a threat.
Jimmie Johnson (+1,000)
This is one of six tracks on the Sprint Cup series circuit where Johnson has never scored a victory. He does have three Top 5s and eight Top 10 finishes here. Johnson has to be considered a threat anywhere NASCAR races and Bristol is - no exception.
Head to head
Tony Stewart vs. Greg Biffle
Both Stewart and Biffle have admirable records at Bristol. Biffle has five Top 5s and eight Top 10 finishes while Stewart has one win, five Top 5s, seven Top 10s and one pole. Stewart may seem to have the edge, but his win came in 2001 and Biffle seems to be a little more on his game. Biffle finished ahead of Stewart at Atlanta and should do so this week.
Jeff Burton vs. Mark Martin
Burton has one win at Bristol along with eight Top 5s and 13 Top 10s. Martin has two wins, 16 Top 5s, 23 Top 10s along with nine poles. In Atlanta, Martin finished 33rd while Burton came home 20th. The real tale, though, is that Martin was caught up in a crash while Burton struggled. That's the story for Burton, who as the team has yet to find the right combination while Martin has suffered from just plain bad luck. Martin will get the edge this week, as long as he keeps his nose clean.
Carl Edwards vs. Brad Keselowski
Edwards tapped Keselowski's Dodge at Atlanta sending him tumbling. The controversy continues into this week. Keselowski will be making his first Sprint Cup Series start here, although he did win the Nationwide Series race in the fall of 2008. Edwards has two wins at Bristol along with three Top 5s, four Top 10s and one pole. Keselowski may have the talent, but Edwards has the experience. Look for Edwards to come out on top, that is if they are both around at the end.