Homestead weekend includes a long list of lasts for drivers, cars, crew chiefs and sponsors
November 17, 2007
HOMESTEAD, Fla. (AP) -While the main focus this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway has been on the NASCAR Nextel Cup championship duel between Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, there's an underlying current of nostalgia, thanks to a long list of lasts at the season finale.
It began Friday with the last Busch Pole Award and continued Saturday with the final Busch Series race, with beer-maker Anheuser-Busch ending its longtime sponsorship of those events.
The pole award will switch brews, with Coors coming on board, and, after a 26-year run as the Busch Series, NASCAR's top development series will be sponsored next year by Nationwide Insurance.
But that's only the beginning of the lasts.
Sunday's Ford 400 will be the final Nextel Cup race, with sponsor Sprint Nextel changing the name to the Sprint Cup in 2008.
It will also be the final time Dale Earnhardt Jr. with race for the team founded by his late father. He will leave Dale Earnhardt Inc.'s No. 8 to drive a new No. 88 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports in 2008.
Junior's longtime association with sponsor Budweiser will also end, with Bud moving to Kasey Kahne's No. 9 Gillett Evernham Motorsports entry. Earnhardt will be sponsored by Pepsi's Mountain Dew and Amp Energy drink, along with the National Guard.
There will be more changes at Hendrick, too, following the race.
Kyle Busch will make room for Earnhardt on the four-car team by leaving for Joe Gibbs Racing, and team owner Rick Hendrick has decided to retire his traditional No. 25 that was driven this season by Casey Mears. Mears will replace Busch in the No. 5 next season.
``We're all excited to have Dale Jr. coming to the team and I kind of hate to see the 25 go, but change is inevitable in this sport,'' said Hendrick, who will celebrate his team's seventh Cup title Sunday, no matter whether Johnson or Gordon wins.
The race will also end the 32-year Cup career of Ricky Rudd.
``I've had an incredible career, but it's time for me to find a rocking chair somewhere,'' said Rudd, who came back from a one-year sabbatical to run one last season with Robert Yates Racing at the age of 50.
But that's not all.
The Cup race will also be the curtain-closer for the cars that have been run in NASCAR's top series for more than two generations of competition. They will be replaced full-time in 2008 by the so-called Car of Tomorrow, a bigger, boxier vehicle developed over a seven-year period by NASCAR as a safer, less expensive and, hopefully, more competitive alternative.
The CoT competed in 16 of this year's 36 Cup races and had mixed reviews.
``I don't think people are going to completely accept the CoT and stop talking about all the reasons it's not as good as the old car until we're not driving the old car any more,'' said Jeff Burton.
``Once we get to Daytona (for the season-opening Daytona 500) next year, you'll probably hear a lot less of the negative talk because the CoT will be what we're racing, period.''
Another farewell on Sunday will be the Gibbs team bidding adieu to General Motors. After competing for years with Pontiacs and then Chevrolets, Gibbs will switch next season to Toyota.
JGR, which has won three Cup championships in the past eight years, will give the Japanese auto manufacturer a new flagship team for its second year in Cup.
``It's exciting to be adding a team with the kind of history and the amount of resources that Joe Gibbs Racing has,'' said Toyota motorsports boss Jim Aust. ``We think adding Gibbs to our other teams is going to help lift everybody to a higher level.''
Hall of Fame Racing, which gets engines and technical help from Gibbs, will also switch to Toyota in 2008, with J.J. Yeley switching teams to make room for Busch. Sunday will be the final ride in the No. 96 Hall of Fame entry for Tony Raines, who is looking for a new ride.
Sunday's race will also be the end of the driver-crew chief relationship between 2003 Cup champion Matt Kenseth and Robbie Reiser. Reiser will take over as general manager of Roush Fenway Racing, leaving the crew job to longtime crewman Chip Bolin.
``It just seems to be a big time of change,'' said Kenseth, who came to Cup with Reiser in 1999. ``It's good for Robbie and I think everybody will be excited about all the other (changes) when we get to Daytona.''
Ford 400: Johnson Wraps It Up
Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: For the Phoenix event, I said we'd specifically stay away from Jimmie Johnson because (a) his odds stunk, and (b) I didn't like his chances of winning a fourth straight Nextel Cup race. Oops. Johnson did come through at +450, but we didn't have a piece of him. However, we did have Kyle Busch topping his big brother Kurt in a head-to-head match-up; Kyle finished eighth while Kurt finished 12th. That victory (at -175) gave us a weekly win, if only by the skin of our teeth. For the week, we netted a positive .07 units on 1.5 units wagered (a 4.7% return), and for the season, we've profited a net 10.42 units on 52.5 units wagered (a 19.8% return). (Note that if you eschewed the conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply wagered one unit on every recommendation we give, you'd have lost 2.43 units for the week on four units wagered, but for the season you'd still be up 31.63 units on 140 units wagered (a 22.6% return). Of course, such a betting pattern is riskier on a week-to-week basis.)
Take Jimmie Johnson (+525), 1/6th unit. I relent. As the Nextel Cup series heads to its final race, in Homestead, Florida, J.J. has pretty much locked up his second consecutive points championship. All he has to do is finish 18th or better, and there's nothing that Jeff Gordon (+400) can do to catch him. But Johnson doesn't seem satisfied with merely winning the points title...he seems to want to make history. If he wins at the high-banked oval in Miami this Sunday, he'll set a NASCAR record by winning a fifth straight race, something that hasn't been done in the modern era (dating well back into the 1970s). The Homestead track bears some similarities to the recently resurfaced Las Vegas Motor Speedway; they each are banked 20 degrees in the turns, and while LVMS is a bit steeper-banked in the straightaways, there are enough setup similarities that I believe this year's LVMS results are relevant. Guess who won Vegas in March?
Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit. You have to love the way Kenseth has run over the last month. He finished fourth in Atlanta, second at Texas and third last week in Phoenix; finally, after a season of mediocrity, the No. 17 has it dialed in. It won't do him any good in terms of yielding him a second points title, but he could very well win this race. He was fourth at the reconfigured Vegas this spring, and has finished third and sixth at Homestead the last two seasons.
Take Greg Biffle (+1220), 1/6th unit. The Biff is the three-time defending champion in Cup races at Homestead, and these odds would indicate that the Wise Guys don't think he can make it four in a row. While I understand that logic (it's a task on which very few have delivered), recall that Biffle probably had the best car late in Phoenix last week, and has improved his fortunes over the last couple months (although you can't really count Biffle's Kansas win as a great run, considering it was such a mess because of weather and vanishing daylight). Roush Racing may not have the same downforce advantages it's had in previous years, but you can't make the argument that Biffle doesn't know how to get around this joint.
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Ford 400 PostQ
If there was anyone out there that feels Jeff Gordon still has a chance to overcome the 86 point deficit in the point standings to overtake teammate Jimmie Johnson for the title those hopes should come to an end. Of course the race still has to be run anything can happen once the green flags drops but the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet is putting on a clinic once again. Johnson came to Homestead-Miami Speedway needing a 19th place finish or better – he is expecting better. Johnson won the pole and then came out on Saturday afternoon to post the fastest time in Happy Hour as he is the top ranked driver on the Speed chart as well. Don’t expect Johnson to lay down once he gets into the top 20. He has a car that can will and could very well get into victory lane for the fifth consecutive race.
For the first time in many weeks Johnson and Gordon do not rank 1-2 on the PostQ forecast. This week Carl Edwards jumps up a handful of spots from the PreQ report due to a top 10 qualifying spot as well as ranking in the top 10 on the Speed chart. Edwards would love nothing more than to end the season with a win as he expects to contend for the title in 2008. The #99 Office Depot Ford has a strong car and runs well on the 1.5-mile tracks. With an average finish of 9th place in three career starts Edwards will be a contender in the Ford 400.
The driver that has generated a little publicity this weekend although he is not a championship contender has been Greg Biffle. There are plenty of reasons why people should be talking about Biffle as he has won the last three races at Homestead-Miami. Biffle loves this track and has a chance to take the top spot on the non-Chase drivers as he sits just 65 points back of Ryan Newman. Biffle and his Roush Racing teammates have all run well here. Look for a big day out of the entire team as the season comes to an end.
As always during the Chase for the Championship we look at one championship driver that we feel will struggle. For the last few races it has been Kyle Busch and he has proven us wrong time and time again. This weekend, however, we feel much better about Busch struggling as it is his last ride in the #5 Kellogg’s Chevrolet. Busch will be leaving Hendricks Motorsports after this race and with his teammates battling for the championship you can beat that he will get little help from anyone on the team. Busch has not finished in the top 35 in two career starts at Homestead-Miami. He should run better this weekend after qualifying 18th and ranking 16th on the Speed chart but there are better drivers out there than Busch for the season finale.
For the second time in the last three years Ricky Rudd will retire from racing on a full-time basis. Rudd stepped down after the 2005 season but came back to pilot the Robert Yates Racing #88 Ford for the 2007 season. He has had an unspectacular season recording just one top 10 although he has kept the car in the top 35 in the point standings all season. Just as his season has gone Rudd will likely go out on a ho-hum note. He qualified in the 38th position while ranking just two spots better on the Speed chart. The ‘Iron Man’ of the sport over the last 32 years is finally ready to hang it up – too bad it will not be on a high note.
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Green Flag: Ford 400
Greg Biffle is gunning for his fifth consecutive Homestead win.
As the season comes to a close this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the Chase is finally officially what many have known for weeks—a two man race between Jimmie Johnson and his car owner Jeff Gordon. They have clearly been the best two drivers all season long and it is only fitting that they are atop the leaderboard entering Homestead.
For readers who believe having only two drivers battling for the championship in the final race makes the Chase a failure, consider that in many other seasons the championship was already decided heading into the season finale. Heck, in 1975 Richard Petty clinched the title with four races remaining. Without the Chase, Gordon would have had the championship all but wrapped up in September. Now there is still a chance for a dramatic finish at Homestead.
Should Gordon finish near the front this week? It turns out the answer is yes.
Statistically, races at Homestead have historically been hard to predict. Reviewing the past five years of races using regression analysis has yielded only a few factors that are predictive of success this week.
Specifically, drivers who have led laps in past races at Homestead have been able to finish near the front this week. In addition, leading laps in the recent races at Phoenix International Raceway, Martinsville Speedway, and Atlanta Motor Speedway has also been strongly correlated with success.
Using these factors as a framework, below are this week's selections.
Tier One
Despite his concession to Johnson last weekend in victory lane, expect to see Gordon near the front applying pressure to the No. 48 team. With four top-10 finishes and laps led in the last five races at Homestead, Gordon typically does well in the season finale. Additionally, he led more than 30 percent of the laps at Martinsville, reinforcing that he is sharp and able to maneuver through traffic to get his car to the front. More importantly, with the championship still a possibility, Gordon will be using every option in his deep bag of tricks to get to the lead, and one of the things that makes him so dangerous is the variety of ways he can win.
Expect Kyle Busch to end his career at Hendrick Motorsports with a finish near the front of the field. While Busch has had terrible finishes (38th and 41st) in his only two Cup starts at Homestead, both of those were due to bad luck. Moreover, Busch actually led 28 laps in last year's race before running into misfortune. Recently, Busch has been in top form, leading more than 20 percent of the laps at both Martinsville and Atlanta. Combine these factors with Busch's undeniable talent and nothing to lose attitude, and he is a serious threat to end up in victory lane. The only caution is that he is throwing caution to the wind, which could make him a danger for a third straight year.
In contrast, the driver who is replacing him, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is not a good choice for a strong finish this weekend. Junior never runs well at Homestead; in fact, he has never had a top-10 finish in his Cup career there. Furthermore, with six straight finishes outside the top 10 and very few laps led at the key recent races, Junior does not appear poised to break out of his Homestead slump this weekend.
Tier Two
Greg Biffle has won the past three races at Homestead, and he has not just been winning the races, he has been dominating them. During those three races, Biffle led 173 laps, almost twice as much as any other driver. Put him in your lineup. It really is that simple. Last year he overcame a 22nd-place qualification run to win and this year he will have to come from further back in 37th, but he can still find the lead.
Martin Truex Jr. should close out the season in a similar fashion as last year, with a high finish. Truex led more than 23 percent of the laps at Atlanta and Phoenix, two of the three races where leading laps is strongly correlated to success this week. Furthermore, Truex has done well at Homestead, finishing second here last year in only his second career Cup start.
Since his surprise and feel good win at the Pepsi 400, Roush-Fenway Racing driver Jamie McMurray has been mired in a terrible slump. Since his victory, McMurray has only recorded two top-10 finishes. His record at Homestead is poor as well, with him never having led a lap in a Homestead race and not having a top-10 finish since 2004. Given this performance history, expect McMurray to be more interested in getting to the finish and getting this disappointing season behind him rather than finishing near the front.
Tier Three
Old timer Bill Elliott makes a fantastic value play for fantasy owners this week. Homestead is one of Elliott's best tracks; he has recorded three top-10 finishes in his last four races at Homestead, including taking home the checkers in 2001. Just as importantly statistically, Elliott has led a large number of laps in Homestead races. In fact, only Biffle has led more laps than Elliott in each of their last five races at Homestead. Given these factors, compared to other drivers at this tier, Elliott certainly has the most potential to surprise with a top-15, or even a top-10, finish.
With two top-20 finishes in the last three races at Homestead, Tony Raines is the other attractive option at this tier. In addition to his steady performance history at Homestead, Raines has been running well of late, with five top-25 finishes in his last seven races. Fantasy owners should have confidence that Raines and the No. 96 team are running on all cylinders and will perform well at one of their best tracks.
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