Ford EcoBoost 400 Betting News and Notes

Homestead Driver Tale of the Tape

1 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.3

2013 Rundown
· Six wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 10.7
· Led 23 races for 1,985 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· Four top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.3 in 12 races
· Average Running Position of 13.8, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.1, sixth-best
· 62 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· 1,533 Laps in the Top 15 (71.7%), fifth-most
· 339 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

2 - Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.0

2013 Rundown
· Seven wins, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.4
· Led 25 races for 1,639 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One win, three top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 17.6 in 13 races
· Average Running Position of 9.3, third-best
· Driver Rating of 106.0, third-best
· 84 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 162.167 mph, third-fastest
· 1,717 Laps in the Top 15 (80.3%), second-most
· 328 Quality Passes, ninth-most

3 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.0

2013 Rundown
· Four wins, nine top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.2
· Led 11 races for 261 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· Five top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 7.9 in 12 races
· Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.1, fourth-best
· 68 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 561 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 162.022 mph, fourth-fastest
· 1,607 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), third-most
· 339 Quality Passes, fifth-most

4 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 101.7

2013 Rundown
· Four wins, 16 top fives, 21 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 12.9
· Led 20 races for 1,227 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 23.1 in eight races
· Average Running Position of 15.8, 15th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.5, eighth-best
· 104 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 161.869 mph, eighth-fastest
· 1,321 Laps in the Top 15 (61.8%), ninth-most
· 329 Quality Passes, eighth-most

5 - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 97.8

2013 Rundown
· Nine top fives, 21 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.9
· Led 14 races for 314 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One top 10
· Average finish of 22.1 in 13 races
· Average Running Position of 20.8, 22nd-best
· Driver Rating of 71.2, 22nd-best
· 93 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 742 Green Flag Passes, second-most

6 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Axalta Coating Systems Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.2

2013 Rundown
· One win, eight top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.5
· Led 17 races for 434 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One win, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.6 in 14 races
· Average Running Position of 13.0, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 95.8, fifth-best
· 85 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 573 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 161.880 mph, sixth-fastest
· 1,499 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), sixth-most
· 390 Quality Passes, second-most

7 - Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Fan Appreciation Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.3

2013 Rundown
· One win, four top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.1
· Led 7 races for 124 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 14.4 in 11 races
· Average Running Position of 15.2, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.0, ninth-best
· 101 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· 680 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 161.879 mph, seventh-fastest
· 1,223 Laps in the Top 15 (57.2%), 12th-most

8 - Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-hour ENERGY Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.5

2013 Rundown
· Nine top fives, 18 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.1
· Led 11 races for 354 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 12.1 in seven races
· Average Running Position of 12.0, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.2, seventh-best
· 605 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
· 1,346 Laps in the Top 15 (72.0%), eighth-most
· 365 Quality Passes, fourth-most

9 - Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.1

2013 Rundown
· One win, 11 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.3
· Led 15 races for 323 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One pole
· Average finish of 24.0 in four races
· Average Running Position of 22.2, 24th-best
· Driver Rating of 64.3, 27th-best

10 - Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Wonder Bread Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.5

2013 Rundown
· 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.5
· Led 14 races for 444 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One win, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 19.8 in 12 races
· Average Running Position of 23.8, 29th-best
· Driver Rating of 71.7, 21st-best
· 78 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most

11 - Ryan Newman (No. 39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 81.9

2013 Rundown
· One win, six top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.0
· Led 16 races for 128 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, four top 10s
· Average finish of 17.0 in 11 races
· Average Running Position of 13.6, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 85.7, 13th-best
· 581 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· 1,381 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6%), seventh-most
· 373 Quality Passes, third-most

12 - Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.7

2013 Rundown
· Two wins, 11 top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.3
· Led 10 races for 677 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, four top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.4 in nine races
· Average Running Position of 12.5, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.2, 10th-best

13 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 Fastenal Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.7

2013 Rundown
· Two wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.6
· Led 16 races for 524 laps

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, five top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 6.0 in nine races
· Series-best Average Running Position of 7.1
· Series-best Driver Rating of 119.0
· Series-high 264 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 162.674 mph
· Series-high 1,881 Laps in the Top 15 (88.0%)

Ford EcoBoost 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Jimmie Johnson will find himself in another familiar position at Homestead-Miami Speedway this Sunday of not having to race hard while nursing his point lead. He's never won at Homestead over his career because in past situations there, he's just trying to stay out of trouble. On Sunday, all he has to do is finish 23rd or better and he'll win his sixth NASCAR Sprint Cup title in eight seasons.

The likelihood of Johnson winning the title is so great that the LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas has taken their championship odds off the board, citing Johnson's lead too large. Last week with only a seven point lead, he was 1-to-5 (Bet $100 to win $20). What would his odds be with a 28-point lead over Matt Kenseth? Maybe 1-to-25?

However, there is small window of hope if rooting for Kenseth or Kevin Harvick who sits third, 34-points back. Johnson's last two races at Homestead didn't go very well, finishing 32nd there in 2011 and 36th last season while battling Brad Keselowski for the Championship. It's unlikely that Johnson will fare as poorly, but it's still something that has to be dangling around in his head.

Winning the Sprint Championship is inevitable, but winning the race is unlikely, just because he'll be in cruise control mode with no intentions of mixing it up with the leaders. He'll play it safe and keep himself in position to always be out of harm’s way.

The drivers to take a look at this week on Homestead's 1.5-mile high banked layout are the one that have been good at 1.5-mile tracks all season, like Kenseth who has four wins, or Harvick and Kyle Busch who have two wins each. However, Homestead is a little different from all the other because it's shaped more like a paper-clip instead of the tri-oval layout like the others. It's raced on only once a year, so there is a bit of mystery attached to it that makes it an exciting race to watch.

Carl Edwards 6th-place average finish in nine starts is the best among all drivers. He won there in 2008 and 2010. His teammate, Greg Biffle, won three straight at Homstead from 2004-06, but his fifth-place finish last year was his best run there since his last win.

Harvick has never won at Homestead, but his 7.9 average finish in 12 starts is better than everyone but Edwards. He's been runner-up twice and has finished eighth or better in seven of his last eight starts there. The best thing to like about him this week is that he's on a roll and has to run as hard as possible to try and take advantage of any error or misfortune that may fall upon Johnson. For Harvick, it's all about winning and leading the most laps this week, and he's go the team and car to do it.

It's a shame that Harvick will be leaving Richard Childress Racing and joining Stewart-Haas Racing next season. This is his last run in an RCR car, which was the famed No. 3 car he took over following the passing of Dale Earnhardt in 2001, and perhaps he's having his best season. When looking at how poorly the Stewart-Haas car looked this season and how well Harvick ran in a lame duck situation with RCR, you have to believe there is a little regret for Harvick, or at least some doubt about how he'll run in 2014.

Look for a storybook ending to his RCR career with him riding off into the Miami sunset with a win.

Top-5 Homestead Finish Prediction

1) #29 Kevin Harvick (10/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (5/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
5) #78 Kurt Busch (15/1)

Driver Handicaps: Homestead-Miami
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

MRN.com's detailed notes and statistics to help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Who's HOT at Homestead-Miami

• Carl Edwards has finished eighth or better in seven of the last eight races, including two wins.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 4.8 average finish in the last five races.
• Greg Biffle leads all drivers with three victories on the current track - progressive banking - configuration.
• Matt Kenseth, a four-time winner on 1.5-mile tracks with Joe Gibbs Racing this season, is second in laps led (305 - all with Roush Fenway Racing) on the current track configuration.
• Martin Truex Jr. has posted a 6.7 average finish in his last six starts.
• Defending race winner Jeff Gordon has finished sixth or better in five of the last six races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Homestead-Miami

• Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing and Wood Brothers Racing each tested at Homestead-Miami Speedway two weeks ago.
• Kyle Busch, who led 191 laps in this event last year, has posted two wins and has led 373 laps in the 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Kasey Kahne (9.8), Kurt Busch (12.2) and Joey Logano (12.9) each rank in the top seven in average finish on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Jimmie Johnson, who can win the championship with a finish of 23rd or better, will return in the same car that he led 255 laps in en route to the win at Texas Motor Speedway two weeks ago.
• Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman have posted respective average finishes of 6.7 and 7.3 in their last three starts at Homestead-Miami.
• AJ Allmendinger, who will be back behind the wheel of the No. 47 Toyota, has posted a 10.2 average finish in four starts at Homestead-Miami.
• Brad Keselowski has led 95 laps and posted an average finish of 7.8 in the four Chase races held on 1.5-mile tracks.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Jeff Gordon
Dustin Long: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Homestead-Miami Speedway unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: Leads all drivers in laps led (688) and is third in average finish (9.0) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 797) that he led 255 laps with en route to the win at Texas two weeks ago.

Matt Kenseth: Second in laps led (305) in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; Leads all drivers in wins (4) and average finish (6.1) in the 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago; Will make first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing in the same car that he won with at Chicagoland Speedway and last finished fourth in at Texas.

Kevin Harvick: Second among all drivers entered in the race in average finish (6.8) in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; Second among all drivers in average finish (7.2) in the 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 438) in the Ford EcoBoost 400.

Kyle Busch: Led 191 laps and finished fourth last year; Third in laps led (237) in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; 14.1 average finish and 373 laps led in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Coming off first top 10 (10th) in five track starts with Hendrick Motorsports; 23.4 average finish with HMS; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 822) that he finished eighth with at Kansas Speedway.

Jeff Gordon: Defending race winner; Win was second consecutive top five; Third among all drivers entered in the race in average finish (9.8) in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; Also tested at Homestead-Miami Speedway two weeks ago.

Greg Biffle: Leads all drivers with three wins in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; Finished fifth in this event last year for second top 10 in the last three races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 862) that he last finished 16th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Clint Bowyer: 12.1 average finish in seven starts; Finished second last year for second consecutive top 10; Ninth among all drivers in average finish (14.4) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 738) that he last finished third with at Kentucky Speedway.

Joey Logano: 24.0 average finish in four starts; Seventh among all drivers in average finish (12.9) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will make first track start with Penske Racing in the same car (chassis No. 865) that he last finished third with at Dover International Speedway.

Kurt Busch: Finished ninth last season in first track start with Furniture Row Racing; 21.6 average finish on the track's current configuration; Sixth among all drivers in average finish (12.2) in the 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Ryan Newman: 18.1 average finish on the track's current configuration; Finished third last season for second top 10 in four track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 733) that he's raced eight times this season, most recently finishing 10th with at Chicagoland Speedway.

Kasey Kahne: 15.4 average finish in nine starts; Led seven laps and finished 21st last season in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Fourth among all drivers in average finish (9.8) and third in laps led (413) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 820) that he finished 15th with at Kansas Speedway.

Carl Edwards: Leads all drivers in average finish (6.0) and laps led (560) in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; Finished 12th last season, snapping a streak of seven consecutive finishes of eighth or better; Eighth among all drivers in average finish (13.8) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 854) that he last finished 10th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Brad Keselowski: 19.2. average finish in five starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 866) that he last finished 37th with at Dover International Speedway.

Jamie McMurray: 15.9 average finish in the 10 races on the track's current configuration; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago; Has yet to finish in the top 10 in his three starts driving an Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet.

Martin Truex Jr.: Fourth among all drivers entered in the race in average finish (9.9) on the track's current configuration; Finished sixth last season for second consecutive top 10; 6.7 average finish in three starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Fifth among all drivers in average finish (10.6) and laps led (188) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season; Tested at Homestead-Miami two weeks ago.

Paul Menard: 22.0 average finish in seven starts; Best finish came last season in 11th; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 428) that he last finished 24th with at Charlotte.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Finished 39th in first track Cup start last season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 820) that he led 26 laps with at Kansas Speedway in the spring, finishing 11th after getting debris on the grille.

Jeff Burton: 19.9 average finish in 10 starts on the track's current configuration; Has finished in the top 10 in three of his last six starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 426) that he last finished 21st with at Charlotte.

Aric Almirola: 15.3 average finish in three starts; Coming off second consecutive top 10; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 864) that he last finished 23rd with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.