Ford EcoBoost 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Could this really be the last race of what seems like a never ending season? We’ve got 35 races in the books with four drivers remaining. Who will be the 2015 Sprint Cup Champion? We’ve got two drivers that have won championships before and we’ve got two that are trying for their first titles.
I can make a case for either of the drivers to win, and I think I’d be happy for any of them. From a betting perspective with future tickets waiting to cash, most of us have a driver that we want a little more than the others just because we can bank some money for Christmas shopping. For a lucky few, they’ve got Kyle Busch at 100/1 odds after he had missed several early season races. There were quite a few sports books that thought Kyle Busch was finished, but he’s done the impossible so far to reach the Championship 4 race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Here’s a small capsule on each of the contenders -- kind of like a tale of tape for this NASCAR championship bout. The Sprint Cup odds to win listed next to the drivers name is what the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook re-posted on Monday afternoon.
Jeff Gordon (15/4) has four Cup trophies, but none since 2001 -- before the Chase format while series still called "Winston Cup." This is his final Cup season. He’s saying goodbye. His Swan Song. Can you imagine how thrilling its going to be if he walks into the sunset with his fifth championship? Even the most devoted Dale Earnhardt fans, who jeered and hissed Gordon his entire career, will have a tear budding should Gordon walk away from the sport in such brilliant fashion. Could we really see a walk-off champion? He’s the only driver to have started all 16 Homestead races and won for the first and only time there in 2012. Despite it taking a while to cross off his bucket list, he was always very competitive with a 10.6 average finish.
Kevin Harvick (3/2) comes in as the favorite as the defending Cup champion and Homestead race winner. He won both at Homestead last season, a first for the Bakersfiled, CA native. He is Homestead’s all-time leader with a 7.5 average finish -- 12 top-10 finishes in 14 starts. When looking at the body of work from the No. 4 team on 1.5-mile tracks this season, you’d have to say Harvick has a great shot at duplicating what he did last season. He finished third at Texas two weeks ago and has a win at Las Vegas, three second-place finishes and a fourth among the previous 10 races on 1.5s. He’s been beating these guys all season on these type of tracks. Why should Sunday be any different.
Kyle Busch (11/4) will be the local favorite this week as the Las Vegas native can bring a championship home to the strip. I’ve lived in Las Vegas since 1980, and the city hasn’t had a lot to root for in sports we can call our own. We don‘t have many banners as champions the city can get behind. Sure Las Vegas is the best of many things in the culinary and resort world, but we don’t really get excited for that stuff like the way sports makes us feel. We have UNLV Men’s basketball champions in 1990, some minor league hockey achievements, Floyd Mayweather and Kyle’s brother Kurt Busch’s title in 2004, but then it all goes back to being Elvis, Frank Sinatra or Dean Martin for city pride. Kyle Busch can bring a major sport championship to the city and I’m hoping he does. He’s finished in the top-five of the past two races on 1.5-mile tracks and he won at Kentucky in July. Everyone starts at zero this week. No points. It’s just about beating the other three of the Championship 4.
Martin Truex Jr. (13/4) is the most improbable of the group. His Denver Mattress No. 78 team is an incredible story as they‘re doing the impossible in NASCAR -- a single car team competing for the title. They also are the only Sprint Cup team that doesn’t operate out of the Charlotte area. These guys roll in and out of Denver every weekend. Truex Jr. has a 10th-place average finish at Homestead with a career-best runner-up in 2006. He’s been very good on 1.5s this season including leading the most laps at Charlotte in May and being runner-up at Las Vegas. If you’re looking for the bright-eyed championship feel-good story, Truex Jr. is it.
So while those four are running their little race for a trophy, the main race is still about who will win. I mean, really, that’s what most of us will be betting: Who will win the EcoBoost 400 at Homestead. The Sprint Cup is a nice story, it’s the end of the season and I’ll keep an eye on who is winning that battle, but I’ll have more immediate and pressing action with the race going on between all 43 drivers to win the race.
Homestead’s layout is different from all the other 1.5-mile tracks. Its got a paper-clip shape with 20 degrees of variable banking through the turns. Does it resemble Charlotte, Texas, Chicago, Las Vegas or none of them? All those 1.5-mile tracks have something similar to Homestead that the crew chiefs will apply, but this is still a different world within the 1.5 ranks.
Still, because of the distance and speeds obtained, we’ve seen quite a few drivers that stand out under the same scenarios. Joey Logano won at Charlotte and Kansas and might have won at Texas if not for some poor luck with tires. Harvick is favored to win, but Logano looks like the smartest pick of all, even though his best Homestead finish has only been eighth-place (2013).
In four of the first 10 races on 1.5s this season, Jimmie Johnson has come away with victory. He’s been the best so far on them, or at least in the win category. The problem this week is that he’s never won at Homestead. He’s had 14 starts and has averaged a 14th-place finish. The bulk of his career wins have come on 1.5-mile tracks, but Homestead has denied him. On several of those occasions he was racing for a title and under the old Chase rules, drivers came into the final race with big leads and could coast with no real pressure.
This week we also get Matt Kenseth back in action and he‘ll be a contender to win as well. Kenseth led 153 laps at Kansas before Logano bumped him and started some fireworks. Kenseth paid the price and served the time. Logano learned an expensive lesson. Now it’s over and time to move on. Kenseth won at Homestead in 2007 and has an 8.7 average finish in his past 10 starts there.
Carl Edwards is a two-time winner here and his former Roush teammate Greg Biffle has three wins. Tony Stewart and Biffle each lead the way with three wins at Homestead. Stewart also won the first Cup race ever on the track in 1999, when it was a flat layout modeled after Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Let’s not forget about Denny Hamlin this week. He has two wins (2009, 2013) with a 10.8 average in 10 starts. Hamlin kicked off the Chase with a win at Chicagoland, then finished fourth at Charlotte and second at Kansas. He can win and the price is right at 15/1 odds.
Top-Five Finish Prediction:
1) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1)
5) #20 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
Handicapping the NASCAR Chase championship finalists
By Jordan Bianchi
SBNation.com
After nine, often controversial, races, just one event remains in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, NASCAR's version of playoffs that crowns its series champion. Emerging from the original 16-driver field that was whittled down by four every three races are Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., who will race for the championship Sunday at Miami-Homestead Speedway.
In a nice bit of symmetry, each of the title finalists represents a particular storyline. Harvick, the defending Sprint Cup champion, is the favorite to repeat; Gordon, who is retiring at the end of the season, is the obvious sentimental favorite; Busch, who returned from devastating injuries sustained in a February crash, is the comeback story; while Truex, who drives for a single-car team based in all places, Denver, Col., is the underdog.
But beyond trite clichés, there is more to know about the title contenders. And with that in mind here is an overview at the four title contenders.
Kyle Busch
Car: No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
2015 wins: Four
Homestead wins: Zero
Homestead average finish: 23.1
Best points ranking: Fourth (2013)
Potential impact on legacy: Long regarded as one of NASCAR's top talents, Busch has never translated that prowess to the postseason. More often than not he flames out, not once entering the final race of the year with a shot at the championship. A win Sunday would considerably raise his profile and begin building a case that he may be one of the sport's all-time greats.
Note of interest: Since Busch's 2005 rookie season only Jimmie Johnson owns more victories (61) -- except only one of Busch's 33 wins came in a Chase race, of which he wasn't even playoff eligible.
Case for winning: Neither ability nor speed -- JGR won a series-best 13 times spread among its four drivers -- are in question. Add those elements with the maturity Busch demonstrated in coming back from great adversity -- he missed 11 races with serious leg injuries -- and everything is present for him to capture a first championship.
Why he won't: After winning four out of five races during the summer, Busch hasn't visited Victory Lane since and made it this far more because of consistency, not necessarily sheer brilliance. That coincides with Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports supplanting JGR as NASCAR's premier organization.
Jeff Gordon
Car: No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
2015 wins: One
Homestead wins: One
Homestead average finish: 10.6
Best points ranking: First (1995, '97, '98, 2001)
Potential impact on legacy: With or without a fifth championship Gordon's is well beyond being secured -- he's in discussion as one of NASCAR's greatest ever. To win another title in his final race before retirement would be unprecedented and give him the perfect cap to an illustrious career.
Note of interest: Gordon has never won a championship in the Chase format (2004 to present) -- all four titles came under the old system where the driver who amassed the most points throughout the duration of the season wore the series crown.
Case for winning: Sometimes storybook endings do happen and Gordon earning a title berth via a magical win at Martinsville, then going out in the absolute best way possible, certainly qualifies.
Why he won't: Homestead is a mile-and-a-half around and that size track has confounded the No. 24 team this season -- Gordon's best result is fourth on ovals of that length. And in a race where the champion will likely need to take it outright, he might not possess the car capable of doing so.
Kevin Harvick
Car: No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet
2015 wins: Three
Homestead wins: One
Homestead average finish: 7.6
Best points ranking: First (2014)
Potential impact on legacy: Thirty men have held the Cup Series trophy, but it's winning a second that really elevates a driver to a higher plateau. And if Harvick can again successfully navigate the rigors of the knockout elimination Chase format, it would only enhance the accomplishment.
Note of interest: Harvick could join Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip and Jimmie Johnson as the only modern era drivers (1972 to present) to win a first series championship and follow it with a second the subsequent year.
Case for winning: There are myriad reasons to like Harvick's chances, including the fact he leads the circuit in top-five finishes, laps led and average finish. But beyond just the numbers, it's his innate ability to rise up when he absolutely needs to. Three times he's produced in must-win situations -- twice a year ago and this season in the Round 1 elimination race at Dover.
Why he won't: Considering the abundance of problems -- self-inflicted and otherwise -- that have mired the No. 4 team, it's almost as if Harvick is going for degree of difficulty in his title defense. Eventually the odds of an issue becoming too much to overcome will catch up and it's not inconceivable it transpires Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr.
Car: No. 78 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet
2015 wins: One
Homestead wins: Zero
Homestead average finish: 10.0
Best points ranking: 11th (2007, ‘12)
Potential impact on legacy: Truex prevailing Sunday would make him the unlikeliest premier division champion since Alan Kulwicki in 1992. And though a championship would transform Truex Jr.'s career -- a journeyman driver with all of three wins in 368 starts -- the win has the potential for Furniture Row Racing, a mid-size team with limited resources, to break the stranglehold Hendrick, JGR, SHR and a few others have on the championship.
Note of interest: Furniture Row could become the first single-car team to win the championship since 1994 when Dale Earnhardt won his seventh and final title driving for Richard Childress Racing.
Case for winning: Truex and Furniture Row excel on intermediate speedways, the exact kind of track where Sunday's finale will be staged. Most recently, the No. 78 car was fast two weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway, which shares similar characteristics with Homestead -- including size and the tire compound utilized -- with Truex in contention for the win until a loose wheel relegated him to eighth. If that performance is replicated, the seemingly improbable will become reality.
Why he won't: That Truex and Furniture Row have made it this far is a remarkable accomplishment, but there is a reason why single-car teams are often punchless against multi-car juggernauts.
Driver Handicaps: Homestead-Miami
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
MRN.com's detailed notes and statistics to help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Who's HOT at Homestead-Miami
• Defending race winner Kevin Harvick is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in the last seven races.
• Jeff Gordon, who led 161 laps last year, has one win and a 7.3 average finish in the last three races.
• Denny Hamlin is the only multiple-race winner in the last six races.
• Homestead-Miami Speedway is Martin Truex Jr.'s best track based on his 10.0 average finish.
• Carl Edwards, a two-time winner, leads all drivers with 560 laps led on the current track configuration.
• Matt Kenseth, the 2007 winner, has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Homestead-Miami
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three Homestead-Miami Speedway starts. He also led 121 laps at Chicagoland Speedway with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.
• This weekend's tire combination was also raced at Texas Motor Speedway where Jimmie Johnson swept both races this season.
• Brad Keselowski is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in all 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Joey Logano, who tested at Homestead-Miami, has won two of the last three races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in his last seven starts at 1.5-mile tracks.
• Trevor Bayne, Clint Bowyer, Ty Dillon and Kyle Larson participated in the Goodyear test at Homestead-Miami. Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts at HMS, but has yet to post a top 10 at 1.5-mile track this season.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is coming off his sixth top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season, tested at Homestead-Miami.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Jeff Gordon
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Denny Hamlin
Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Homestead-Miami
Kevin Harvick won last year's race and the championship in his first Homestead-Miami Speedway start with Stewart-Haas Racing. In his previous 13 starts with Richard Childress Racing, Harvick posted 11 top 10s. Last year's win was his seventh consecutive top 10 at the track. Harvick, who tested at HMS in August, ranks third in laps led (475) and is tied for fifth in average finish (8.7) in the 10 races this season at 1.5-mile tracks.
Clint Bowyer finished eighth last season at Homestead-Miami for his fourth consecutive top 10. However, this year Bowyer has yet to finish in the top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks. Sunday's race will mark his last with Michael Waltrip Racing. He participated in the Goodyear and open test at HMS in August.
Matt Kenseth has posted a 4.0 average finish in his two Homestead-Miami Speedway starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth, who returns this weekend after a two-race suspension, won this event in 2007 with Roush Fenway Racing. This year, Kenseth has nine starts at 1.5-mile tracks, posting an average finish of 12.6 with six top 10s.
Martin Truex Jr. finished 17th last season in his first Homestead-Miami Speedway start with Furniture Row Racing to snap a streak of three consecutive top-six finishes at the track. Truex, who tested at Homestead-Miami Speedway in August, has posted seven top 10s in the 10 races this season at 1.5-mile tracks.
Ryan Newman finished second in this event last season for his third top 10 in the last five races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This season, Newman has finished in the top 10 five times in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks, with his last coming at Chicagoland Speedway, in fourth. This weekend, Newman will pilot the same car (chassis No. 528) that he finished 11th with at Kansas Speedway.
Denny Hamlin won this event in 2013 and finished seventh last season and has combined to lead 122 laps in those two events at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hamlin, who tested at HMS in August, finished 38th at Texas Motor Speedway two weeks ago to snap a streak of five consecutive finishes of eighth or better at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Brad Keselowski has posted a 4.5 average finish in his last two starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Keselowski is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in all 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season. He led a race-high 312 laps in his last 1.5-mile outing at Texas Motor Speedway.
Aric Almirola has failed to finish in the top 10 in his last two starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Almirola, who has posted an 11.5 average finish in his last four HMS starts, saw his only top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks come in the Chase races at Chicagoland Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Kasey Kahne finished 12th in this event last season to give him a 15.3 average finish in three Homestead-Miami starts with Hendrick Motorsports. Kahne's last of four top 10s at HMS came in 2011 with Team Red Bull. This season, Kahne has only finished in the top 10 twice in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks with the last coming at Kansas Speedway in the fall, in fourth.
Carl Edwards won the 2008 and 2010 races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Edwards, who will make his first HMS start with Joe Gibbs Racing, has posted six consecutive top 10s with JGR at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Jeff Gordon, winner of the 2012 race, led 161 laps and finished 10th last season for his ninth top 10 since Homestead-Miami Speedway was reconfigured. Gordon is coming off three consecutive top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks this season and has a 13.3 average finish in the 10 races overall.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has posted a 9.0 average finish in his last three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, including a third-place run in 2013. Earnhardt, who tested at HMS in August, is coming off his sixth top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, finishing sixth at Texas Motor Speedway earlier this month.
Kyle Larson has posted a 14.0 average finish in two starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Larson did participate in the Goodyear tire and open test at HMS in August. This season, Larson has only finished in the top 10 twice in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Justin Allgaier finished 15th last season in his first Sprint Cup start at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Allgaier has yet to finish inside the top 20 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Tony Stewart has three wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but his 2011 win is the only since the track was reconfigured. Last year, Stewart finished 43rd after an accident to give him an average finish of 17.2 in his last four starts. This season, Stewart has yet to finish in the top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Jimmie Johnson has finished ninth in the last two races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Johnson is coming off his fourth win - and second consecutive top five - in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Paul Menard finished fourth for his first top 10 in nine starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Menard, who has yet to finish in the top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, will debut a new car in the Ford EcoBoost 400.
Jamie McMurray finished fifth last season for his first top 10 in the last six races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. McMurray is coming off his second top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season with his 10th-place run at Texas Motor Speedway earlier this month.
Kurt Busch finished 11th last season in his first Homestead-Miami Speedway start with Stewart-Haas Racing. His only win came on the old track configuration in 2002 with Roush Fenway Racing. Busch is coming off his seventh consecutive top 10 in his eight starts at 1.5-mile tracks this season, finishing seventh at Texas Motor Speedway earlier this month.
Danica Patrick has posted a 19.0 average finish in two starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Earlier this month at Texas Motor Speedway, Patrick equaled her best finish (16th) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Drivers to Watch - Homestead
By Sportsbook.ag
The Sprint Cup drivers head to Homestead, Florida for the championship race on Sunday. This season has been extremely exciting and four drivers have a chance to win the 2015 Sprint Cup Series driver championship at this event.
The first driver to cross the finish line amongst Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. will be this year’s champion and it will make for some seriously exciting stuff this weekend.
Harvick was last year’s winner at this race, but Gordon won back in 2012. Three drivers in this year’s field have won multiple times at this event, with Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart both winning three times and Carl Edwards winning twice. The oval track runs 1.5 miles long and has progressive turns of 18-20 degrees with three-degree straights.
Drivers to Watch
With all of that information out of the way, let’s now take a look at who could be entering victory lane in the final race of the year:
Kevin Harvick (7/2) - Kevin Harvick has a chance to be crowned the champion on Sunday and fortunately for him, he’s racing at a track that he has been very good at in his career. Harvick won this race and championship a year ago and is the favorite to win it again this weekend. He comes into this race after having finished in third two events ago at Texas and second in Phoenix last weekend. He has, however, been winless since racing in Dover seven weekends ago. Harvick is a good pick to snap that streak on Sunday and win his second straight championship.
Jimmie Johnson (7/1) - Jimmie Johnson claimed the pole for this event and while he waited way too long to turn it on this season, he does enter this race on a hot streak. Johnson won the race in Texas two weeks ago and followed it up with a fifth place finish last weekend. He does not have a championship to win, but he is embracing the role of spoiler and is a great pick to win at 7/1. He would love to enter next season on a high note and is happy to make people look foolish for talking about his retirement too early.
Jeff Gordon (10/1) - Like Harvick, Gordon is also in the running for a championship and just needs to finish before Harvick and two others in order to be crowned the champion. Gordon has won at Homestead in his career and has finished in the top 10 at six straight races entering this one. This is Gordon’s last race in his final season as a full-time driver in the Sprint Cup and he will have all of the motivation in the world to come away with a victory. Backing him at 10/1 could end up paying off huge.
Greg Biffle (300/1) - Biffle has had a season to forget in 2015, but he is receiving 300/1 odds and his history at this racetrack speaks for itself. Biffle is a three-time winner at Homestead and will be looking to earn his fourth victory on Sunday. With the odds he’s receiving, one unit may make you a very happy person come Sunday evening.