Forecasting the Future
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The NASCAR circuit takes a one-week hiatus as teams will take in the holiday weekend. Seven races are in the books and no better time than now to forecast the future.
Jeff Gordon won at Texas last week for his first win the 2009 season. Not only did the win increase his large points lead in the Cup series, but it also gave him his first career win at Texas and halted his 47-race losing streak. It’s hard to believe that Gordon hasn’t won since October 2007. It one sweeping win, he took a couple monkeys off his back. The winless drought was the longest of the four-time champions’ career. Two seasons ago he checked off Phoenix on his “tracks to win at list” leaving only Homestead and Texas. In his 17th try, Texas can now be crossed off. Congrats Jeff, good luck in Miami at the end of the season!
Currently Jeff Gordon can be found at 4/1 in the odds to win the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Series Championship. The favorite despite Gordon’s large lead right now is Jimmie Johnson at 3/1. As good as Gordon has been, Johnson, the defending 3-time Cup champion, has amassed more wins in the chase than anyone else. Those are the wins that really count. It should be good battle between the two Hendrick teammates down the stretch.
This week the Cup and Truck series are off while the Nationwide series goes to Nashville. Look for Carl Edwards to continue his domination on the concrete track. With the Cup series almost one-fifth of the way completed, futures can now be seriously looked at as an investment. We have seen a good mix of races on all different types of tracks. Gordon and Johnson are of course the favorites and have earned it dominating on all different types of tracks. Are there any other viable candidates? Taking odds of 3 and 4/1 is no fun at all, so let’s take a look at a few candidates to win the title this year other than the favorites.
Tony Stewart (15/1) - I thought Stewart would have a tough time this year with his new car. I thought he would struggle on all the 1.5 mile high banked tracks. I didn’t think he would be able to compete with the top teams in the league and make a legitimate run for the Chase. Well, I was wrong, wrong, and wrong. Stewart has been very impressive on all the tracks. He currently sits 5th in points and is above the likes of Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards. It is likely that Stewart gets better before he gets worse making him a good candidate to bet on. I also like his demeanor this year. He appears more mature and business like rather than the driver who flew off the handle at any given moment like when he drove for Joe Gibbs.
Kurt Busch (12/1) - He currently sits 3rd in points and has run well on each of the tracks. I thought his Atlanta win would carry over to Texas. He ran well there, but not as dominant as in Atlanta. He has been consistent, which is the key to making the Chase. At 12 to 1, he presents nice value and could give the Jimmie and Jeff show a run.
Matt Kenseth (15/1) - It seems like it was so long ago when Kenseth won at Daytona and then followed it up with a California win. He started out with a bang and then something happened to Kenseth and the entire Roush team. He had a four-race streak where he finished better than 23rd only once, but all seems to be well again after a great 5th place finish in Texas. If they can build off their Texas success, they’ll be in the running to make a run at the title and give Kenseth his 2nd Cup title. Of all the drivers out there, Kenseth probably has the most upside and value to win it all.
David Reutimann (50/1) - A real long shot, but definitely worth mentioning because of what he’s accomplished at this point. He’s currently 11th in points. Each week I keep thinking that’ll be the week where Reutimann goes bye-bye, but he keeps sticking around. I keep thinking of how terrible Michael Waltrip is and Reutimann’s affiliation, but the two are definitely using different equipment. Things may still unravel for the team, but it is a great accomplishment to see a new driver with a new team mix it up with the heavyweights.
It’s off to Phoenix next week for some racing in the desert. This will be the first of six races where teams use similar set-ups for their races that include Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond. We’ll have a full report on the race next week.
Enjoy the week off and Happy Easter!