NASCAR Changes and Duels
By Micah Roberts
NASCAR has made a few changes in the requirements to cars since Saturday after first witnessing speeds of two-car tandems hitting 206 mph. After tweaking changes geared towards making the car overheat quicker should a car stay in the two-car caravan for very long, Wednesday they announced a reduction in the size of the restrictor-plate of 1/64 of an inch which will reduce the speeds by at least 10 mph and cut RPM’s by 100.
On Saturday night these cars were hitting 9,700 PRM’s and it surprising that we didn’t see more failures. The reason we didn’t may have been because it was a short race with an interval after the first 25 laps before the final 50 laps. Sunday’s Daytona 500 will be 200 laps with no interval. Even with the plate reduction, you better believe that there will be a few engine failures over the longer distance.
By closing the front grille opening a little more and installing a pressure-relief valve on the water system at 33 psi, there is going to be even more strain on the car and it will bring down the operating limits of the car.
For safety reasons, the changes were necessary and had to be made, but I don’t like the timing of it all. These teams spent all off-season maximizing their potential under the given NASCAR rules to win NASCAR’s Super Bowl and now they have to go back to the drawing board with some major changes, given only a few days before their biggest race of the season. All the time, money, strategy and effort spent has been thrown out the window.
It’s insane to assume that the drivers can stay away from each other in a restrictor-plate race. There is no clean air unless being up front. Even if they try to run alone, they can’t, which is going to end quite a few cars day before the race ends due to overheating.
Plate racing is volatile enough as it is with cars taking each other out at high speeds going three-wide, but now we have NASCAR rules in place which should take care of a few them.
Because of these changes, I’m feeling less and less comfortable about wagering too much on this race. It was already hard enough to pick a winner in a plate race and with so much shuffling of positions during each, betting driver matchups is almost impossible or perhaps the better word, unbettable. With these changes, it makes every car vulnerable to a DNF like never before.
Of course I’m going to watch it, are you kidding? It’s still the Daytona 500, but as a bettor, a top rule is always money management and betting on this type of racing with so many unknown variables, it’s a poor investment.
On a normal weekend of racing, the player can have a real edge in matchups and odds to win by narrowing down the top five cars after the final practices making the profit margin higher for the player than any casino game. This year’s Daytona 500 is a huge house advantage, making betting on which dollar bill will land on the casino’s big money wheel seem like a better edge to the player.
Still, I've already bet and will bet a few more because my strategy is already underway with having already taken five drivers and at least five more to come, but my unit plays will be less than the 32 other non-plate races.
Gatorade Duel Top 5 Finish Prediction - Race 1
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
2) #5 Mark Martin (20/1)
3) #29 Kevin Harvick (3/1)
4) #39 Ryan Newman (15/1)
5) #27 Paul Menard (30/1)
Gatorade Duel Top 5 Finish Prediction - Race 2
1) #31 Jeff Burton (10/1)
2) #56 Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (30/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (3/1)
5) #1 Jamie McMurray (7/1)
VegasInsider.com
Gatorade Duels Preview
By Keith Fredrick
The Great American Race is getting closer and closer, and the Qualifying Grid will be finalized with the Gatorade Duels. As a devoted fan of NASCAR, I’m glad to see the cars back on the track, and of course as a handicapper I am looking to make some money as well! I started out the season pretty well and while I did not have the winner of the Bud Shootout (was close with McMurray) I did go 3-0 to start the season on matchup plays.
Before getting to some observations on the Duels, I wanted to share a chart I made concerning results of the previous five years of Gatorade Duels. There are two Duels per season, so that is why there are two winners listed each season, as is the case for the rest of the finish spots. This chart does show some strong trends - both positive and negative - for some of the top teams out there. The results show that some are very ready to go while the others seem to be more concerned with testing and getting ready for Sunday. Ninety-six drivers have started the Duels the last five years. Here is the chart:
The first name that jumps off the page is that of Joey Logano. Those that have followed my NASCAR analysis the last few years know that I not one of the kid's biggest fans, but hard to ignore back-to-back Top 7's in the Duels, so if he comes with a nice price I will be on him for sure, in both the index and the matchups.
Speaking of the No. 20 car, the former driver of that Home Depot machine certainly knows his way around a Duel as well, as Smoke has not missed the TOP TWO of his Duel since 2006, and that finish was "all the way back" in eighth. With history like that Tony Stewart does have to be a big part of the equation.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has, with the exception of last year, done well in the Duels, and the early returns on his move to the 48 garage certainly seem positive. He will be the pole-sitter for the Great American Race and thus will not have much value in the Duels, especially if he decides to try some things out for the big race.
Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne won the Duels last year, and that continues a trend of three Top 5 Duel showings of late for the 48, and Kahne has been in the Top 7 in three straight seasons. It will be interesting to see how he does in a Red Bull car for this race.
Although 18th in overall Duel ranking, Juan Pablo Montoya deserves a look, as he has been 7th, 4th, and 3rd the last three years, with the relatively low overall ranking really a byproduct of his poor showing in his rookie season.
Daytona is a restrictor plate track, so even though Jamie McMurray ranks 19th on this chart he absolutely must be considered, as while some may be equal, no one is better at plate tracks than McMurray.
As for the drivers with big names that do not figure to be big factors in their Duel, note that Matt Kenseth has not been in the Top 10 in the his last three Duels, Greg Biffle's best finish of late is eighth, Jeff Burton has been 14th or worse each of the last three seasons, and Kevin Harvick has been feast or famine in this spot, with a second place finish last year but three finishes of 16th or worse the four seasons before that. These are drivers I will likely be fading once the matchups roll around.
Gatorade Duels: NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle
It’s the only event in the top-tier series of NASCAR that is scheduled on a Thursday.
The Duel Qualifying races at Daytona International Speedway are part of the quirky system used only for the season opening Daytona 500. In combination with single-car qualifying from the Sunday prior, the 60-lap, 150-mile races set the field for the Great American Race. They also provide some of the best racing of Speedweek.
Despite the fact that only five drivers out of the 48 entries for the 53rd running of the Daytona 500 will be going home after the Duels, the fact remains that racers are racers and no matter the circumstances every driver will still have one singular goal in mind Thursday - win.
There is also another motivation as well. The top two starting spots for the 500 are determined by the single car qualifying. Those spots are locked in. The finishing order in the Duels, however, determines the starting order for the rest of the field, so in addition to wanting to win, a good finish will earn a driver a better starting position for the 500.
In each of the races there will be favorites. Many have already shown their hands and will be looking to continue to run up front hoping for a better starting spot for Sunday’s Daytona 500.
After securing his first Daytona 500 pole, Dale Earnhardt Jr. suffered a crash during practice Wednesday. Hendrick Motorsports was forced to give Earnhardt a backup car, meaning he must forfeit the pole he won in qualifying Sunday and start at the rear of the 43-car field in Sunday's race as well as the Gatorade Duel.
“We were coming around (Turns) 3 and 4 and some guys on the inside moved up toward the top lane and me and Jimmie (Johnson) checked up cause we didn’t know if they were coming into our lane and we got run over from behind,” Earnhardt explained to reporters. “Same old stuff that always happens here.”
Taking Earnhardt out of the equation, three other drivers starting in the first race have looked strong so far. Mark Martin led both practice sessions last Friday. Jimmie Johnson, Martin’s teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, has also been consistently at the front. Kevin Harvick, however, has shown a great deal of muscle and has led the charge for Richard Childress Racing. Saturday night during the Budweiser Shootout, a 75-lap exhibition race, Harvick led laps and proved himself as a threat.
The spoiler in the first race could easily be Kurt Busch. He won the Bud Shootout - his first win at a restrictor plate track.
Jeff Gordon, having secured the second-place starting spot for the Daytona 500, will lead the field for the second Duel. The favorites for the second race won’t include Gordon, however. Gordon knows he will start on the front row for the 500, so may simply try and survive intact. Richard Childress Racing teammates Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton, on the other hand, were consistently at the front during Saturday night’s Shootout and can’t be ignored. The same goes for Jamie McMurray. McMurray finished second Saturday night and is the defending Daytona 500 winner.
The spoiler for race No. 2 could be Kyle Busch who is always a threat to win at Daytona.
First Duel
Mark Martin +2000
Jimmie Johnson +800
Kevin Harvick +300
Spoiler: Kurt Busch +700
Second Duel
Clint Bowyer +800
Jeff Burton +1000
Jamie McMurray +700
Spoiler: Kyle Busch +300