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Talladega Driver Tale of the Tape
Kurt Busch (No. 41 Haas Automation Chevrolet)
· Six top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 17.0
· Average Running Position of 14.6, third-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, fourth-best
· 7,702 Green Flag Passes, second-most
· Series-high 2,431 Laps in the Top 15 (63.9%)
· Series-high 5,288 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Nationwide Chevrolet)
· Five wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.5
· Series-best Average Running Position of 14.5
· Driver Rating of 90.7, second-best
· 80 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 6,981 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.336 mph, ninth-fastest
· 2,313 Laps in the Top 15 (60.8%), third-most
· 4,478 Quality Passes, third-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
· One win, four top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 19.0
· Driver Rating of 82.0, 10th-best
· 80 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 1,572 Laps in the Top 15 (45.9%), 10th-most
· 3,507 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
· Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.5
· Average Running Position of 16.0, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 87.5, fifth-best
· 2,070 Laps in the Top 15 (54.4%), fourth-most
· 3,944 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)
· One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 17.8
· Average Running Position of 14.5, second-best
· Driver Rating of 89.9, third-best
· 6,413 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
· 2,423 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), second-most
· 4,664 Quality Passes, second-most
Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford)
· Three wins, four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 15.1
· Driver Rating of 82.9, eighth-best
· 1,043 Laps in the Top 15 (45.3%), 22nd-most
Kyle Larson (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
· One top 10
· Average finish of 13.0
· Average Running Position of 15.1, fourth-best
· Series-best Driver Rating of 95.6
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.444 mph, second-fastest
Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)
· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 19.9
· Average Running Position of 16.9, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 82.2, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.326 mph, 10th-fastest
Jamie McMurray (No. 1 McDonald’s Chevrolet)
· Two wins, six top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 20.4
· Driver Rating of 79.8, 12th-best
· 6,049 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· 1,736 Laps in the Top 15 (45.6%), seventh-most
· 3,456 Quality Passes, 10th-most
David Ragan (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 16.5
· Driver Rating of 80.9, 11th-best
· 5,952 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.337 mph, eighth-fastest
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 17 Fifth Third Bank Ford)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 8.7
· Average Running Position of 16.0, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 85.0, sixth-best
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 193.454 mph
GEICO 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We just had two consecutive rainy weeks of racing on short tracks, but now we get a power boost of adrenaline as the Sprint Cup series heads to the biggest, baddest track on the planet at Talladega SuperSpeedway where the Alabama weather is expected to absolutely beautiful this weekend.
This beast of a track is 2.66 miles of mean and nasty speeds up to 200 mph that creates edge of your seat viewing because when the ’Big One’ happens, the wrecks are scary spectacular.
What’s most enjoyable about Talladega is that 38 of the 43 drivers have a legitimate shot to win. Last week at Richmond, you could make a case for -- maybe -- 13 drivers.
Restrictor-plate racing levels the field to the point where all cars are pretty much equal which in theory lessens the chance for the power teams to win. Between the two road courses and the four-restrictor-plate races (Daytona also), there are six opportunities for smaller teams to win and get a ticket into the Chase like Aric Almirola (Daytona) and A.J. Allmeninder (Watkins Glen) did in 2014.
The one driver that comes to mind who could make a big splash is Danica Patrick. On a normal race scenario, Patrick is in the 500/1 odds to win range, but this week at Talladega she’ll be around 40/1. She has performed well in plate races -- she’s better at Daytona, but she’s having a career year in what is the final year on her contract with Stewart Haas Racing. She was 25th at Richmond last week, but had averaged a 10th-place finish over her previous three starts.
Patrick’s car has looked very similar to her SHR teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch who seem to lead almost every lap of every race. One race where Harvick was shown to be mortal by not leading a lap was the Daytona 500 in February. Harvick still finished second. Patrick finished 21st and Kurt Busch was suspended, but Regan Smith brought home a 16th-place finish. The boss and teammate, Tony Stewart, was in an early accident and finished 42nd.
I’m not saying to go out and bet Danica to win, I’m merely stating that you can’t count her out. And that goes for David Gilliland , Sam Hornish Jr., Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Casey Mears. Those are all drivers we don’t talk about too much when wagering, but will be expected to run well and compete for top-10 finishes, and the time elapsed from first to 10th-place is about a tenth of a second. Anything can happen on that final turn.
Last season is applicable because the plate cars are basically the same. There were no major suprises as Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski won from power teams. But the year before it was Jamie McMurray at 25/1 odds and David Ragan at 75/1 odds winning.
For Keselowski, he has proven to love Talladega racing as his three wins attest to. He grabbed his first ever win in 2009 for a part-time team and also won for Penske Racing in 2012.
Stenhouse Jr. has three Talladega starts and an average of 8.7 with a best of third-place in 2013. You couldn’t be faulted by taking 50/1 on him.
The team that has really stood out over the past two seasons of plate racing has been Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin has the one win, but they’ve been dominant. They get out to the front and lead laps and then it‘s a gamble on the final few laps. Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Hamlin and Ragan should all be very good on Sunday. For Ragan, the onlytwo wins of his career have come in restrictor plate races.
Jeff Gordon is a six-time winner at Talladega, but doesn’t have any since winning back-to-back events in 2007-08. His farewell season isn’t quite going as planned. Jimmie Johnson has won twice there, the last coming in 2011. Both cars looked outstanding in the Daytona 500 combining to lead 10 times for 126 laps. Gordon started from the pole and led a race high 87 laps. The duo should be good again this week.
The best betting strategy this week is to lay off the matchups because there is no edge, unless a book dangles +115 on some driver, and it doesn't matter who. That's how random and volatile the track is. Take about five to six drivers at varied odds to win from a couple of favorites, to a middle of the pack odds guy and then a longer shot and stagger your wager amounts based on who like the most or would like the most return on overall investment.
There are no bad picks this week until it actually loses. So best of luck throwing darts to choose the winner. Here are my five numbers pulled from a hat:
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (14/1)
4) #15 Clint Bowyer (30/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (12/1)
Driver-By-Driver Breakdown
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn't won at Talladega SuperSpeedway since a span of winning five of seven races from 2001-04, but he's still favored to win Sunday's Geico 500. Yes, it's hard to believe it's been 20 races since Junior last won on the beastly 2.66-mile high-banked layout; because of the volatile nature of the track and the 43 cars being somewhat equal, he gets the favorite label by default and popularity.
There really isn't a favorite from an oddsmaking standpoint at any of the four restrictor-plate races (two each at Talladega and Daytona). The edge power teams have on the other tracks don't apply. Since Daytona, Kevin Harvick's odds have been in the 9-to-2 range, and he's led 952 laps through nine races. He's one of the best plate-racers in the series, but he has still won only once over his career at Talladega (2010) and he's yet to win a plate race in five chances with Stewart Haas Racing. He opens at 12-to-1 odds this week.
As for Junior being the default favorite, it all rests with supply and demand. He is routinely voted as the most popular driver in NASCAR, and that translates to the bet windows in Las Vegas. Even though it's been over a decade since he won at Talladega, his legend precedes him with those five wins. He was strengthened last year when he won the Daytona 500, showing he could still read the air of the draft better than most. Because the books know they're going to have risk on him whether he's 12-to-1 or 8-to-1, they figure they might as well start low and adjust from there.
Based on probabilities, the favorites this week should actually be Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth. Despite leading plenty of laps in plate races since the two became teammates, the Joe Gibbs Racing team has only won once between Daytona and Talladega. They also don't have an expected high volume of betting tickets written on them like Junior does.
The best thing about the equality of each car on restrictor-plate tracks is that you get great odds on drivers you normally wouldn't. Up to 38 drivers have a chance to win, compared to last week at Richmond, for example, where only 13 legitimately had a shot. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has seven popular drivers listed at 12-to-1, following Junior at 8-to-1. They know a long shot can cash at Talladega, just like Jamie McMurray and David Ragan did in 2013.
Here's a look at all the Westgate's odds for this week’s race at Talladega:
DALE EARNHARDT JR 8/1: While Daytona and Talladega run much differently, the speeds and performance with plates on are still relevant to cross reference. In Junior's case, he led 32 laps and finished third in the Daytona 500. In 30 starts at Talladega, he has five wins and 10 top-five finishes with a very respectable 15.5 average finish. He finished second in the fall of 2013, as well as 2009, since his last win in 2004.
KEVIN HARVICK 12/1: He finished second in the Daytona 500, but surprisingly didn't lead a lap. What makes him so good in plate races is that he's got the respect of every driver out there.They want to work with him because they know he's going to pave a way to the front -- Junior has the same appeal. In 29 career starts at Talladega, he's got a 15.6 average finish, which is third best among active drivers with at least four starts.
DENNY HAMLIN 12/1: He won his first career plate race at Talladega last spring and has averaged a fourth-place finish in his past three Daytona starts. While JGR is still figuring things out on the cookie cutter tracks, they may very well be ahead of everyone in plate races with a package that is relatively the same from last year. Expect him to be up front with the lead pack for most of the race, which with two laps to go is about all you can ask for when making an odds to win wager on a driver.
JIMMIE JOHNSON 12/1: The thing that makes Johnson attractive this week is his strong Daytona 500 performance where he led four times for 39 laps and finished fifth. He's a two-time Talladega winner and two-time runner-up with a 17.5 average finish.
MATT KENSETH 12/1: He won for the first time at Talladega in 2012 in his final year with Roush Fenway Racing, but he looked just as strong in his first two years with JGR. He's led lots of laps in the nine plate races with JGR with a best finish of second last fall at Talladega.
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12/1: We should have known Keselowski would be a monster at Talladega when he took an underfunded part time team to victory lane in 2009 for his first career win. He's won two times since for Penske Racing, including last fall. He's got a 15.1 average finish in 12 starts, and it's usually all or nothing for him. He's only had four top-five finishes and three are wins.
KURT BUSCH 12/1: When he first came into the series I was shocked to see how adept he was in plate races. Seeing him run here in Las Vegas at the Bullring in his younger days, it was obvious he was going to be a terror on short tracks, but restrictor-plate racing was thought to be an entirely different story -- an acquired skill over time. All he did in his first Talladega race in 2001 was finish third, and then he finished third and fourth the next two years. At the time I was calling him the best driver to never have won a plate race and 13 years later that's still the case. He certainly could have been selfish in the 2008 Daytona 500 and not pushed teammate Ryan Newman to victory, but here we are in 2015 still with no plate wins. We didn't get to see him in the Daytona 500 this year because of being suspended by NASCAR, but Regan Smith drove his No. 41 to a respectable 16th-place finish. With a win in his back pocket already, look for Busch to go hard after another one.
JOEY LOGANO 12/1: His career best came in 2009 as a rookie with third-place, but he's finished 11th or worse in his past seven starts. He won the Daytona 500 in February, but there's no chance of him using that strong chassis since it's on display at Daytona USA. Most other drivers will be using either the primary or back-up chassis from Daytona.
CARL EDWARDS 15/1: He could give Busch a run for the money as being the best plate racer without a win. On the last lap of the 2009 spring race, he had victory snatched away while leading on the last turn by a hungry Keselowski, and contact made his car look like a kite as it slammed into the catch-fence. Since that race, his only top-five finish was third-place in 2013 in which he had a good run going in the Daytona 500 and led with 33 laps to go. The most attractive thing about him this week is being part of the JGR stable.
JEFF GORDON 15/1: He leads all drivers in plate wins (12) and leads all active drivers with 847 laps led at Talladega, as well as 44 starts. He swept the 2007 season for his sixth and last Talladega win. In that one, the crowd littered the track with beer bottles in disappointment not only because Junior didn't win, but because he passed Dale Earnhardt for most plate wins all-time. The crowd should be much kinder to Gordon on his farewell tour this time around if he wins. Based on leading a race high 87 laps in the Daytona 500, he just might get win No. 7.
MARTIN TRUEX JR 18/1: My favorite memory of him at Talladega isn't even on the track, but rather the story of him and Dale Jr., while teammates at DEI, racing against each other and learning the track better through video games on-line. That's a pretty good partner to learn some tricks of the trade from. His best finish was fifth in 2006 and he had a solid eighth-place finish in the Daytona 500.
CLINT BOWYER 18/1: He is the perfect example of a driver being brought back into the pack of favorites just because of the plates. He loves Talladega and won twice there for Richard Childress. Last season he was third in both races and his 14.4 average finish is best among all active drivers with at least four starts. He may have junk at other tracks, but he'll be just fine on Sunday.
KASEY KAHNE 20/1: No plate wins throughout his career with a 21st-place average finish, which includes a best of second-place in the fall of 2009.
JAMIE McMURRAY 20/1: Plate racing is his bread and butter as four of his seven career wins have come on them; two each at Talladega and Daytona. He's got the knack and also plenty of believers as he's usually the most bet middle-of-the-odds driver because of past memories of 40-to-1 payouts with him.
DAVID RAGAN 20/1: His only two career wins came in plate races and now he gets to drive the No. 18 JGR car. This gives him a great opportunity to mix his skill in with quality equipment. In 2013, with supposedly less equipment, his win in the No. 34 paid out at 100-to-1 odds.
TONY STEWART 20/1: He hasn't had a top-five finish at Talladega since winning his only race there in 2008. He used to have an advantage in plate races, but he doesn't look the old 'Smoke' we've been accustomed to. While not in great form right now, he still matters and is a candidate to win just like at least 37 other drivers.
GREG BIFFLE 25/1: He led the most laps in this race last year and finished second. The RFR cars look weaker than ever, but throw everything you've seen from this year out the window. He'll be very competitive this week.
KYLE LARSON 25/1: A ninth and 17th-place finish in his first two starts last year was great for a rookie. He finished 34th in the Daytona 500.
RYAN NEWMAN 30/1: Fifth last fall and ninth the previous two falls. However, the spring race has been rough on him lately with a 29th-place average in his last five springs.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 30/1: Just like Biffle, throw out all the awful 2015 RFR data. In three starts, he has an 8.7 average finish.
PAUL MENARD 40/1: A 21.4 average finish in 17 starts with two top-fives. He finished 25th in the Daytona 500.
ARIC ALMIROLA 60/1: He got the free Chase ride by winning at Daytona last summer and knows this is probably his best shot to make it again this year. He was 13th in the race last season and 15th in February's Daytona 500
CASEY MEARS 60/1: Just by finishing sixth in the Daytona 500, he should be in consideration for making one of those long shot wagers.
RYAN BLANEY 60/1: He finished 22nd last fall in his first Talladega start driving the No. 12 Penske Ford, but will be in the famed No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford this week. He was 39th in the Daytona while driving the No. 21.
DANICA PATRICK 60/1: It's a contract year and she sure has stepped up her game like most athletes do in the same situation. Plate racing has been where's she's looked the most comfortable, although the better finishes have been at Daytona. She's had only a 26.7 average finish in four starts. A win isn't improbable here.
MICHAEL WALTRIP 60/1: He won in 2003 and his three other career wins came at Daytona -- all as Junior's teammate at DEI. In his part-time duty role, he finished fourth at Talladega in the spring of 2013. He's very aggressive, which makes him a good candidate to start 'The Big One', but at the same, time also makes him a candidate to make that crazy move needed to win at the end.
AUSTIN DILLON 60/1: He's got an 18th-place finish in three Talladega Cup starts and was 14th in the Daytona 500. It sure would be nice to see that black No. 3 in victory lane again at Talladega.
AJ ALLMENDINGER 75/1: In 10 starts, he's averaged a 24th-place finish with a career best fifth-place last spring.
TREVOR BAYNE 75/1: Eight starts with a 27.8 average finish and a best of eighth in 2012.
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 100/1: In two career starts, he's averaged a 25th-place finish and was 37th in the Daytona 500.
SAM HORNISH JR 100/1: The good news is that he finished 12th in the Daytona 500. The bad news is that he's averaged a 28th-place finish in eight Talladega starts.
FIELD 40/1: This is your bundle package and you can't be faulted for making the wager this week. We have seen the field cash in recent plate races, such as Keselowski at Talladega and Trevor Bayne at Daytona in 2011. It's still unlikely, but David Gilliland, who finished second behind teammate Ragan in 2013, is probably your anchor of hope. Gilliland finished 11th in the Daytona 500 and Michael Annett finished 13th.
Chassis Selections
Jayski.com
#3-Austin Dillon will pilot Chassis No. 493 in the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. This Bass Pro Shops / TRACKER Boats Chevy was built new for the 2015 season and was utilized earlier this season at Daytona International Speedway, where Dillon finished 14th in the Daytona 500 and 15th in the Duel at Daytona.
#4-Kevin Harvick: will pilot the #4 Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet SS built on Chassis No. 4-814 in the Geico 500 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race on Sunday at Talladega. Built in 2014, Chassis No. 814 finished fifth in the 2014 Sprint Unlimited and served as the backup for both races at Talladega in 2014. Chassis No. 814 finished second in the 2015 Daytona 500 at Daytona and fifth in the 2015 Budweiser Duel at Daytona.
#5-Kasey Kahne: Crew chief Keith Rodden has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 5-856 for Sunday's race at Talladega. Notably in 2014, Kahne drove the car to finishes of eighth place and 12th place in two races at Talladega. Most recently, Kahne raced the chassis in the Daytona 500 in February, where he finished ninth.
#15-Clint Bowyer: Chassis No. 790 serves as the primary chassis for Clint Bowyer at Talladega. Bowyer drove the chassis at the Sprint Unlimited in February where he finished 20th. Chassis No. 811 serves as the back-up. The chassis served as primary for Bowyer at the season opening Daytona 500 where he finished seventh and last year at Talladega in October where finished third.
#24-Jeff Gordon: Crew chief Alan Gustafson has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 24-916 for this Sunday's race. The chassis has been raced once to a seventh-place finish in this year's Sprint Unlimited at Daytona International Speedway. Gordon will drive the #24 Drive to End Hunger Chevy in this Sunday's race, and AARP's "Real Possibilities" will again be featured on the car. AARP and its Foundation are helping to combat hunger by coordinating with local agencies and food banks and sponsoring innovative teaching programs and more.
#27-Paul Menard will utilize chassis No. 492 this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway. This Quaker State/Menards Chevy was utilized earlier this year at the Sprint Unlimited event in Daytona where Menard started first and finished 21st after being collected in a late-race incident.
#31-Ryan Newman will drive chassis No. 494 on Sunday at Talladega. This Chevy was utilized earlier this season at Daytona International Speedway for the Duels (Start: 12/Finish: 12) and the Daytona 500 (Start: 22/Finish: 38). Thompson Tractor Company, Inc., Puckett Machinery Company and Louisiana Catwill be featured on the #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway.
#33-Brian Scott is scheduled to pilot chassis No. 495 in Sunday's GEICO 500. This is a new chassis that was utilized for the first time during Daytona 500 practice sessions and the Duels at Daytona International Speedway in February.
#41-Kurt Busch will pilot Chassis No. 758 in Sunday's Geico 500 at Talladega. Formerly a #10 chassis for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) teammate Danica Patrick, Chassis No. 758 made its debut during 2013 Budweiser Speedweeks at Daytona, where Patrick qualified the car on the pole for the Daytona 500 with a speed of 196.434 mph. She led five laps in the "Great American Race" before finishing eighth - the best finish ever for a woman in the Daytona 500. Patrick next drove Chassis 758 in May 2013 at Talladega, where she started 23rd and finished 33rd after being involved in a late-race accident. The car was rebuilt and wind-tunnel tested before returning to Talladega in October, when she again finished 33rd after a pit-road speeding penalty took her out of contention. Chassis No. 758 was then raced in the 2014 Sprint Unlimited at Daytona, when Patrick was caught in a multicar accident and finished a disappointing 16th. In its next outing, Patrick led six laps early at Talladega in May 2014 before finishing 22nd. She then finished eighth in the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona in July, driving Chassis No. 758 to her third-career top-10 finish to date. In the final restrictor-plate race of the 2014 season, Patrick again led laps at Talladega but was shuffled back in the draft and was credited with a 19th-place finish. Since then, the car's body was updated for 2015. It was wind-tunnel tested Jan. 15 in preparation for the season-opening Daytona 500 in February and was driven to a 16th-place finish by Regan Smith.
#48-Jimmie Johnson: For this weekend's event, crew chief Chad Knaus has selected chassis No. 48-915 which is a brand new car. The backup car is 48-853, which last raced in the Sprint Unlimited in Daytona.
#55-Michael Waltrip: will drive primary chassis 789 won pole and finished 20th at Talladega in October with Brian Vickers behind the wheel. Finished 25th with Waltrip in Daytona. The backup: 748 chassis finished 41st in 2014 Daytona 500 & 25th at Talladega in May with Waltrip.
#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: This weekend at Talladega, crew chief Greg Ives and the No. 88 team will unload Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 88-872. Earnhardt most recently raced the chassis to a third-place finish in the Daytona 500.
Drivers to Watch - Talladega
By Sportsbook.ag
GEICO 500
Sunday, May 3rd – 1:00 p.m. ET
Talladega Superspeedway – Lincoln, Alabama
The racers head to the storied Talladega Superspeedway this week for the first event since the Daytona 500 with restrictor plates at the Geico 500. A typical race here will have the cars in more of a pack as the plates keep the competitive balance closer to even than usual, and with all the cars so close together, a large, multi-car pileup is usually on the horizon.
Last season, it was Denny Hamlin that was able to take the checkered flag as his Toyota car conquered the tri-oval course with huge 30+-degree turns in 3:17:16. There have been plenty of multiple-time winners at this event in recent memory with Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2), Jimmie Johnson (2), Brad Keselowski (2) and Jeff Gordon (4) combining to win 10 of the last 15 races.
In 2011, the drivers set the Sprint Cup Series record for most lead changes in regulation (88) and closest margin of victory (0.002 sec) as they remained in a pack for a majority of the race.
Let’s take a look at the entrants for this week and find some drivers who could be hoisting the trophy on Sunday.
Drivers to Bet
Jimmie Johnson (12/1) - Johnson doesn’t have quite as many starts in this event as the favorite this weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr., but in two fewer attempts has just as many top-fives (5) and victories (2). Overall on this track, Johnson has been able to compile a driver rating of 87.5 (5th in series) and has been able to complete 3,944 quality passes (5th in series); a very important skill to have with all the cards so close together. He already has two wins on the year and has finished in the top-three at each of the past three races while also doing well (5th) in the Daytona 500; another restrictor plate race. Of the favorites, Johnson seems to be the most consistent when travelling to Talladega.
Clint Bowyer (18/1) - Bowyer has struggled somewhat this year with just two top-10 finishes, but both of them give him hope as the first was in Daytona when he placed seventh while the other was his last race in Richmond when he finished in ninth. Overall in his 55 races with restrictor plates, Bowyer ranks second behind just Dale Earnhardt Jr. with an average finishing position of 14.8 and his average finish of 14.4 at this track in 18 attempts is the best of any driver who has ran on it more than 10 times. He has six top-fives here and two wins with both of the victories coming during the other race that is hosted on the grounds; the Alabama 500. Look for Bowyer to build on his solid showing last week and be at the top of the pack.
Kyle Larson (25/1) - Larson owns the best driver rating (95.6) amongst his peers at this venue and despite it being over only two attempts, he has proven to do well in races with restrictor plates as he has two top-fives in seven tries in similar races. So far in 2015, Larson has put up three top-10s and was even able to lead for 90 laps a few weeks ago at Bristol. His average green flag speed of 193.444 MPH at his course should have him looking to continue improving his spot in the Sprint Cup Standings with a solid run.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (30/1) - Stenhouse Jr. has just nine career top-10 finishes in his young career with one of them coming at Bristol a couple of weeks ago where he started 25th and ended in fourth. The other two came in his three attempts when on Talladega Superspeedway leading to an average finish of 8.7. His average green-flag speed of 193.454 MPH is best in the series as he has the sixth-best average running position (16.0) and driver rating (85.0) on the course. The 27-year-old should be able to break out this week at a track where he is obviously very comfortable.
Brendan Gaughan (Field:40/1) - Gaughan hasn’t done much of anything in the Sprint Cup series this year, racing in four events with his best showing being a 28th at Atlanta back in early March. What he has been doing well is being competitive each race in the Xfinity Series where he has four top-10s in eight events. Gaughan earned one of his four career top-10 finishes when he was in Talladega earlier in his career and is slowly making his way back into this series. In each of his last Sprint Cup races, the 39-year-old has improved on his pole position, so that will be key if he wishes to get a solid finish this week.
Sportsbook.ag - Odds to win GEICO 500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 12/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
David Ragan 20/1
Jamie McMurray 20/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Tony Stewart 20/1
Greg Biffle 25/1
Kyle Larson 25/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Paul Menard 40/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 40/1
Aric Almirola 60/1
Austin Dillon 60/1
Casey Mears 60/1
Danica Patrick 60/1
Michael Waltrip 60/1
Ryan Blaney 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 75/1
Trevor Bayne 75/1
Justin Allgaier 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Driver Handicaps: Talladega
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin helps you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's GEICO 500 with detailed driver notes and stats for Talladega Superspeedway.
Who's HOT at Talladega
• Clint Bowyer, winner of the 2010 and 2011 fall race, leads all drivers that have competed in the last 10 races with an 7.4 average finish. He also finished third in both races last season.
• Matt Kenseth, winner of the 2012 fall race, is the only driver that has led more than 200 laps (209) in the last five races. He is also coming off a second-place finish, his second top 10 in four starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Brad Keselowski is coming off his third win in 12 starts.
• Five-time winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. has combined to lead 113 laps in his last five starts. He will also be back in the same car he led 32 laps and finished third with in the season-opening Daytona 500.
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in wins (6) and laps led (847). He also led a race-high 87 laps in this year's Daytona 500.
• Kevin Harvick, winner of this event in 2010, finished in the top 10 in both races last season. He also finished second in this year's Daytona 500.
• David Ragan won this event in 2013 and will be making his final start of the season for Joe Gibbs Racing. His win is one of four top 10s in the last six races.
• Jimmie Johnson, a two-time spring race winner, led the most laps last fall with the same combination of left- and right-side tires that teams will use this weekend.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Talladega
• Defending event winner Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with a 6.2 average finish in the last five restrictor-plate races (Daytona and Talladega). Casey Mears (8.8), Austin Dillon (11.2), Greg Biffle (14.8) and Kasey Kahne (17.4) are among the drivers ranked in the top 10.
• Joey Logano is coming off his first restrictor-plate win in the Daytona 500, which came in his 25 combined starts at Daytona and Talladega.
• Jamie McMurray (two at Talladega) and Tony Stewart (one at Talladega) are each four-time winners on restrictor-plate tracks.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has recorded an 8.7 average finish in three Talladega starts. His last start came in this event when he finished 10th. He failed to make the race last fall under the old qualifying group qualifying format.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five Talladega starts, including a fifth-place finish last fall.
• Last weekend's winner Kurt Busch finished seventh last fall at Talladega and has four third-place finishes in his career there.
• Michael Waltrip will be back in the No. 55 Toyota this weekend. His last of eight top-five finishes, which includes one win (2003), came in this event in 2013, in fourth.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Pete Pistone: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
John Singler: Denny Hamlin
Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish (More than one start) in Last Five Races at Talladega. Stats are for Talladega unless noted
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Leads all drivers with an 8.7 average finish in three starts. Stenhouse, who failed to make the race last fall under the old qualifying format, finished 10th last year in this event after restarting 19th on a green-white-checkered finish. He finished 29th in this year's Daytona 500.
Clint Bowyer: Leads all drivers over the past 10 races with an average finish of 7.4. Bowyer finished third in both races last season and has posted an average finish of 10.5 in his six starts with Michael Waltrip Racing. His two wins at the track came with Richard Childress Racing in the 2010 and 2011 fall race. Bowyer finished seventh in this year's Daytona 500. This weekend, Bowyer will return in the same car (chassis No. 790) that he finished 20th with in the Sprint Unlimited at Daytona.
Kyle Larson: Finished ninth in his first Cup start at Talladega last year in this event. Larson finished 17th last fall and has yet to lead a lap in five overall restrictor-plate starts (Daytona and Talladega).
Matt Kenseth: Is coming off his best finish (second), and second top 10, in four Talladega starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth's lone win came with Roush Fenway Racing in the 2012 fall race. His 35th-place finish in this year's Daytona 500 raised his average finish to 20.0 in the last five restrictor-plate races (Daytona and Talladega).
AJ Allmendinger: Finished fifth in this event last year to help his average finish of 14.0 in two Talladega starts with JTG Daugherty Racing. Allmendinger's 2014 starts were his first at the track since 2012. Overall in 10 starts, he has a 23.4 average finish.
Martin Truex Jr.: Has posted an average finish of 22.0 in two starts with Furniture Row Racing. Truex started the season at Daytona with an eighth-place run, one of nine top 10s this season. Truex’s last of six top 10s in 20 Talladega starts came in 2013 when he finished seventh and eighth, respectively, while driving for Michael Waltrip Racing.
Ryan Newman: Is coming off a fifth-place finish in the fall race. The finish was Newman's third top 10 in the last five races. In his two Talladega starts, Newman has posted an 11.5 average finish. This weekend, Newman will return in the same car (chassis No. 494) that he finished 38th with in the Daytona 500.
David Ragan: Will make his ninth and final start with Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend. Ragan has finished seventh or better in four of his last six Talladega starts, including a win in this event in 2013, with his former Front Row Motorsports team.
Kevin Harvick: Finished in the top 10 in both races last season, his first two Talladega starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick, who won this event in 2010 with Richard Childress Racing, will be back in the same car (chassis No. 814) that he finished second with in the Daytona 500.
Greg Biffle: Biffle has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five restrictor-plate starts (Daytona and Talladega), including a second-place finish in this event last year. This weekend Biffle will be back in the same car he finished 10th with in the Daytona 500 with a few changes to the car the team learned.
Jimmie Johnson: Has only finished in the top 10 once in the seven races after he won this event in 2011. Johnson does rank second in laps led (160) in the last five races at Talladega. Johnson, who led 39 laps and finished fifth in this year's Daytona 500, will debut a new car (chassis No. 915) in the GEICO 500.
Brad Keselowski: Is coming off his third win in 12 starts. The victory last fall was Keselowski's first top 10 in the last four races. An engine issue in this year's Daytona 500 relegated Keselowski to a 41st-place finish, which raised his average finish to 20.2 in the last five restrictor-plate races (Daytona and Talladega).
Austin Dillon: Is coming off his best finish, of 13th, in three Talladega starts. Dillon does rank third in average finish (11.2) among drivers that have raced in the last five restrictor-plate races (Daytona and Talladega). This weekend, Dillon will return in the same car (chassis No. 493) that he finished 14th with in the Daytona 500.
Jeff Gordon: The six-time winner has yet to finish in the top 10 in his four starts. Gordon's last of 19 top 10s came in the 2012 fall race, in second. Gordon, who started from the pole and led 87 laps in the Daytona 500, will return in the same car (chassis No. 916) that he finished seventh with in the Sprint Unlimited at Daytona International Speedway.
David Gilliland: Posted an average finish of 34.5 in both races last season after finishing in the top 10 in both races in 2013. Gilliland's runner-up in this event in 2013 is his best finish in 15 Talladega starts.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Has finished in the top 10 in five of his 14 starts with Hendrick Motorsports. Earnhardt ranks second in laps led (95) in the last three races, which includes a runner-up finish in the 2013 fall race. His last of five wins came in the 2004 fall race when he drove for Dale Earnhardt, Inc. This weekend, Earnhardt will return in the same car that he led 32 laps and finished third with in the Daytona 500.
Paul Menard: A crash in last year's fall race snapped his streak of two consecutive top 10s. This weekend, Menard will return in the same car (chassis No. 492) that he finished 21st with in the Sprint Unlimited with at Daytona after being collected in a late-race incident.
Michael Waltrip: Returns to the No. 55 Toyota this weekend. Waltrip's last of eight top-five finishes, which includes one win (2003), came in this event in 2013, in fourth.
Aric Almirola: Only top 10 in 10 starts came in this event in 2013, in 10th. Almirola does have three top-15 finishes in the last four restrictor-plate races, which includes a win in last year's rain-shortened July race at Daytona.
Landon Cassill: Is coming off his first top 10 in eight starts after finishing fourth last fall. He finished 11th in this event last year and has a 21.6 average finish in his last five restrictor-plate starts (Daytona and Talladega).