Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
The first 13 NASCAR Sprint Cup races are in the bag and we begin a march through the lean coverage of the season which is what I call the six-race stretch that TNT covers. Not many folks give the FOX television coverage as much credit as it deserves. The coverage is always great and the announcing crew is by far the most entertaining and insightful group that has ever covered the sport.
The color commentary of analysis from Wally Dallenbach and Kyle Petty is dull, and very few times will they offer insight that wasn’t known to the common race fan, as opposed to the type of data and information routinely given by Larry McReynolds and Jeff Hammond on FOX. McReyonlds will be a part of TNT’s team, but only for brief moments as he’ll show insights on a cutaway car.
The lead commentator, Adam Alexander, will be new to the TNT team this year and has been solid in this past with his duties on SPEED and MRN Radio. However, there is nothing he can do to balance out the dumb and dumber commentary -- and not in the funny way either -- of Petty and Dallenbach. Alexander will also have the tough task of easing fans into his style and matching the top flight bench mark set by auto racing’s greatest commentator, Mike Joy. Tough shoes to fill for sure.
My strategy this week will be to watch the Pocono race, but keep the MRN radio feed on which gives constants updates from all corners of the track for each driver throughout the race. It’s still a race and still has to be bet on, but no one said you had to be annoyed at the same time. Somehow, I know I will listen to the TNT feed at some point in the same fashion we all rubberneck when there is a car accident on the highway.
Pocono Raceway is a unique 2.5-mile triangular shaped track with three vastly different turns that each get gradually flatter making it a difficult track for teams to set up. There is no way to get a car perfect for each of the three turns, so it’s almost like they have to choose which of the three they want to be quickest at.
Over recent years, the main ingredient for success has been flat out horsepower. Drivers that have done well on the down force tracks leading up to Pocono have fared well. Another driver, Denny Hamlin, who has become somewhat of a specialist on flat tracks like Martinsville has also shown that his particular entry and exit skills at smaller tracks have helped his cause to winning three times at Pocono.
It doesn’t hurt that Hamlin also has a great engine also, but what’s amazing about Hamlin is that he came in as a rookie and swept the Pocono season in 2006. This was after a disastrous 2005 season with Jason Leffler driving the same car -- well obviously it wasn’t the same car, just car number, owner, and sponsor.
Hamlin won for the third time at Pocono last season and currently has the best average finish of any current driver at just under 10th per race. When he won last season, it was the 21st race of the season and it was his first win of the season. Coming in this year, he’s already got three wins and is charging hard to be the one who stops Jimmie Johnson from winning his fifth straight season championship.
Juan Pablo Montoya is an interesting look to contend for the win this week. He’s been so up and down in performance, but if we look at last season through this year, Montoya fit’s the profile of a driver who should run well here. If there is one thing his Ganassi car isn’t missing, it’s horsepower. Their problem seems to be more about the car chief, crew chief, and pit road, because this team should have one at least one race over the last 39 races based on the equipment they have.
Last season, Montoya finished in eighth and second-place in the two Pocono races and he’s shown enough horsepower at tracks like Atlanta, Texas, and Charlotte to believe he should be set in that category this week. As for the driver himself, nothing against Hamlin, but Montoya’s entry and exit through odd turns can’t be matched…..The guy won at Monaco!
Montoya’s teammate Jamie McMurray will also be one to watch this week just because of how fast they have been on the down force tracks. He’s a former pole-sitter at Pocono, but hasn’t mustered a better finish than ninth, which he’s done twice. Look for a career performance this week from McMurray.
The driver that really needs some love right now is Jimmie Johnson. Everything was so easy for the team out of the 2010 gate with three wins in the first five races, but since then, it’s been tough for the defending four time series champion. If including the All-Star race, Johnson hasn’t had a top-5 finish in his last six starts; that’s all this guy ever does is finish in the top-5. I’d like to believe things will get better this week, but he’s not exactly bringing a confidence builder to the track with him this week. The team is opting to bring a primary chassis that finished 16th at Dover and using a backup that has won three times. You can never count Johnson out, but it’s getting easier week by week.
Kurt Busch is riding high right now after winning the All-Star race and Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte the last two weeks. He and crew chief Steve Addington have things figured out pretty good, especially in the horsepower department and that will give him a nice edge this week on the long straightaways. He’s bringing his chassis from the February California race that finished sixth and that Busch noted “was strongest late in the race”. With the way this team is running right now, it would be foolish to bet against him on any track that asks for pure horsepower like Pocono does.
Mark Martin has six career second-place finishes at Pocono with no wins, a NASCAR record. He’s always run well on the track but has come up just short, but he needs a good run this week to regain some momentum for the stretch run in the race to the Chase where he currently sits 10th in points.
Jeff Gordon is a four-time Pocono winner with his last coming in 2007. This race brings out the best of Gordon because he's able to use some of his road racing skills along with perfect car. His car has been one of the most consistently good ones all season long and that shouldn't change this week. Look for a strong run this week with a chance at winning.
Carl Edwards is another driver who needs to start piling up solid finishes as he sits 11th in points. He’s a two-time Pocono winner, but that was in the glory hey-day of Roush racing super power under the hood. He should be expected to finish within the top-10, but a win may too much to ask this week. This week he’ll be using the same chassis that finished 15th at Darlington.
Tony Stewart won this race last year, but he’s a hard sell this year with the way they have been running. He’s got two wins at Pocono, but what’s more telling is that he’s run on just about every type of track thus far and only has one top-5 finish this season (Bristol). At this stage, Ryan Newman is a much better candidate to finish better than Stewart.
Kyle Busch started his Pocono career like a monster worth a fourth-place finish in his first race, but has yet to match the effort in nine races since. What’s worse for Kyle this week is he’s got an angered Jeff Burton looking to even the score after getting wronged last week by Kyle at Charlotte. Burton isn’t the type of driver Kyle should mess with because Burton never forgets and will get even. Kyle dismissed the anger of Burton who got in his face after Charlotte race, but you can bet he’ll stay as far as possible away from Burton this week and beyond. It takes a lot to get Burton going, and Kyle pushed that button.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
2) #42 Juan Pablo Montoya (15/1)
3) #2 Kurt Busch (8/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
Pocono Tale of the Tape
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
· Two wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 16.5
· Average Running Position of 10.5, second-best
· Driver Rating of 105.9, second-best
· 238 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 159.118 mph, second-fastest
· 1,435 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1%), fifth-most
· 381 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Kellogg’s Ford)
· Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 13.4
· Average Running Position of 14.9, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 100.3, fifth-best
· 141 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 158.653 mph, seventh-fastest
· 1,197 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), 10th-most
· 347 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
· Four wins, 16 top fives, 24 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 10.0
· Average Running Position of 11.1, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.3, seventh-best
· 25 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· 831 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 158.742 mph, sixth-fastest
· 1,366 Laps in the Top 15 (71.5%), seventh-most
· 445 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)
· Three wins, five top fives, six top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 9.5
· Series-best Average Running Position of 10.2
· Series-best Driver Rating of 115.9
· Series-high 280 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 159.530 mph
· 1,202 Laps in the Top 15 (79.8%), ninth-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
· Two top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 15.7
· Average Running Position of 15.4, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.8, 12th-best
· 842 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· 380 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
· Two wins, five top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 9.8
· Average Running Position of 11.0, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 103.1, third-best
· 100 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 158.965 mph, third-fastest
· 1,437 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), fourth-most
· 393 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Driver Handicaps: Pocono
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Pocono Raceway for Sunday's Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 200-lap event.
Who's HOT at Pocono
• Denny Hamlin, who leads all drivers with a 9.5 average finish, is coming off his third win in eight starts.
• Tony Stewart, the defending race winner, has finished in the top 10 in eight of his last nine starts.
• Two-time winner Carl Edwards led 103 laps en route to a second-place finish in this event last year.
• Jeff Gordon has four wins and leads all drivers with 879 laps led.
• Mark Martin leads all drivers with 32 top-10 finishes.
• Two-time winner Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight starts.
• Kasey Kahne has one win and a 7.0 average finish in his last four starts.
Keep an Eye on at Pocono
• Juan Pablo Montoya and Sam Hornish Jr. each finished in the top 10 in both Pocono races in 2009.
• Marcos Ambrose finished sixth in his Pocono debut last year in this event.
• Kurt Busch has the second-best driver rating at Pocono.
• Ryan Newman has one win and seven top 10s at Pocono.
• Kevin Harvick leads all drivers with an 8.8 average finish in the 13 races run so far in 2010.
• Kyle Busch has finished ninth or better in the last seven races in 2010.
Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Pocono Raceway unless noted)
1. Kevin Harvick: Ninth-best average finish (13.2) in the four races with the COT; Best finish came in the 2008 August race in fourth; Has yet to lead a lap in 17 starts; Bringing brand-new Chassis No. 309.
2. Kyle Busch: 29.2 average finish in the four races with the COT; Finished 22nd and 16th, respectively, in 2009; Only track where he has single digits (2) in laps led.
3. Matt Kenseth: Sixth-best average finish (11.2) in the four races with the COT; Last of eight top 10s came in this event in 2008 in seventh; Has led at least one lap in last five starts.
4. Jeff Gordon: Fourth-best average finish (9.0) in the four races with the COT; Leads all active full-time drivers with four wins; Leader in laps led with 879; 10.0 average finish in 34 starts; Has finished in the top 10 in six of the last seven races, including a win in this event in 2007.
5. Denny Hamlin: 16.2 average finish in the four races with the COT; Coming off third win in eight starts; Swept both races in 2006; Leads all drivers with a 9.5 average finish; Driving Chassis No. 267; This car has ended in Victory Lane in both of its starts this year (Martinsville & Darlington).
6. Kurt Busch: 23.0 average finish in the four races with the COT; Posted one win and an average finish of 14.1 in eight starts with Penske; Also won in 2005 with Roush; Has led 368 laps and posted nine top 10s in 18 starts; Bringing Chassis PRS-704 which debuted at Auto Club this year to a sixth-place finish.
7. Jimmie Johnson: Second-best average finish (7.2) in the four races with the COT; Has led 146 laps with the COT; Last of two wins came in 2004 when he swept both events; Won the pole for the 2008 August race; Has finished seventh or better on four of the last five races; Will return in Chassis No. 558, which was driven to 16th-place finish at Dover.
8. Jeff Burton: 11th-best average finish (14.0) in the four races with the COT; Finished ninth in this event last year for 15th top 10 in 32 starts; Four of his top 10s have come with Richard Childress Racing; Bringing Chassis No. 302 that finished second at Dover and 12th at Texas this year.
9. Greg Biffle: 10th-best average finish (13.5) in the four races with the COT; Posted second-best average running position (4.8) in this event last year; Finished 11th in that event because of fuel mileage; Last of two top 10s came in this event in 2006; Bringing brand-new car this weekend (Chassis RK-595).
10. Mark Martin: Fifth-best average finish (11.0) in the four races with the COT; Coming off 32nd top 10 in 46 starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 582) that finished 16th at Darlington last month.
11. Carl Edwards: Third-best average finish (7.5) in the four races with the COT; Has led the most laps with the COT (158); Led 103 laps and finished second in this event last year; Last of two wins came in the 2008 August race; Piloting Chassis RK-558; Finished 15th with this car at Darlington.
12. Ryan Newman: Eighth-best average finish (12.8) in the four races with the COT; Finished fifth in this event last year in first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing; Posted six top 10s in previous 14 starts with Penske Racing.
13. Clint Bowyer: 15.0 average finish in the four races with the COT; Coming off first top five (third) in eight starts; Three top 10s in previous seven starts; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 298) that finished 23rd at Atlanta in March after cutting down a tire late in the race.
14. Martin Truex Jr: 17.2 average finish in the four races with the COT; Two top 10s in eight starts came with the old car; Will make track debut with Michael Waltrip Racing.
15. Jamie McMurray: Last top-10 finish (ninth-place) came with Jack Roush in second event in 2008; 20.6 average finish in 14 starts with three top-10 finishes; Will bring Chassis No. 31, which he drove to a 17th-place finish from the pole at Auto Club this year.
16. Tony Stewart: Defending race winner; Finished 10th last August in second track start with Stewart-Haas Racing; Posted one win and 14 top 10s in previous 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
17. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finished fourth in track debut with Rick Hendrick in first COT event at track; 17.8 average finish in four events with team; Five top fives and six top 10s in 20 starts with an average finish of 17.4; Bringing chassis No. 88-584, which he drove to 15th-place finish from the pole position at Atlanta.
18. Joey Logano: Finished 23rd and 27th last year in first two starts at track.
19. David Reutimann: Finished third in this event last year for only top-10 finish at track; 26.7 average finish in six starts.
20. Juan Pablo Montoya: Posted only two track top-10 finishes last year; Track-best second-place finish came in second event; 20.7 average finish; Will bring the same car (Chassis No. 910) that was involved in a wreck early this year in Las Vegas; Finished 37th there after running in the top 10.
21. Kasey Kahne: Won this event in 2008 from the pole after leading 69 laps; Has finished 15th or better since then and holds the best COT average (7.0); 15.5 average finish with five top 10s in 12 starts; Has led a total of 150 laps; Still holds track qualifying record, which was set in this event in 2004 during rookie season.
22. Paul Menard: Has yet to finish better than 25th in six starts; Average finish is 29.3; Piloting brand-new Chassis No. 561.
23. David Ragan: Posted only top-10 in six starts with fifth-place finish in second event in 2008; 22.7 average finish; Piloting Chassis RK-670, which finished 29th at Bristol.
24. AJ Allmendinger: Best finish in five starts is 12th in this event in 2008Bringing Chassis No. 288 that finished 17th at Bristol and 14th more recently at Dover; Will be the only RPM entry running the new Ford FR9 engine this weekend.
25. Brad Keselowski: Making track debut this weekend; Bringing same car (Chassis PRS-726) that finished 14th at Texas.
26. Scott Speed: Finished 32nd and 23rd, respectively, last year in first track starts; Making debut with new crew chief Ryan Pemberton.
27. Brian Vickers: Not racing at Pocono; Casey Mears will pilot the No. 83 Toyota.
28. Elliott Sadler: 21.0 average finish in 22 starts with two top 10s; Finished 25th and 24th in two starts with Richard Petty Motorsports in 2009; Will return in same car (Chassis No. 609) that finished 31st at Phoenix this year.
29. Sam Hornish Jr.: Finished in top 10 in both events last year, including a track-best fourth in the fall; 20.5 average finish in four starts.
30. Marcos Ambrose: Finished sixth in his track debut in this event last year; Led one lap in the second event before finishing eight laps down in 34th.
Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500: NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle
Known as the Tricky Triangle for its unique three-turn shape, the 2.5-mile Pocono Raceway is a speedway that drives like a road course. It provides challenges to NASCAR’s Sprint Cup drivers that are found nowhere else. Those challenges will be many as NASCAR heads to Pocono for Sunday’s Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500 presented by Target.
Favorites
Denny Hamlin (+500)
Hamlin has been one of the hottest drivers on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series circuit this season. He’s having a career year coming into Pocono with three wins in 2010. This is the place where Hamlin shines. He has three wins here including a sweep in 2006. His last win at Pocono came at the series’ last race here in the fall. In addition, he has five Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes along with two poles. Look for Hamlin to be the driver to beat Sunday.
Tony Stewart (+2000)
Stewart hasn’t exactly had a season to smile about thus far. But he comes into Pocono as the defending race winner, having scored his first points paying win as a team owner here last year. Stewart also won here in 2003 and has seven Top 5s and 16 Top 10s. He has this challenging track figured out and may have a reason to smile when the checkered flag falls Sunday.
Carl Edwards (+2000)
Like Stewart, Edwards is not having the best of seasons. However, the team is showing a spark lately. And like Stewart, Edwards has the tricky Pocono track figured out. He has two wins here, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes. His last win here came in 2008 and he may be in a good position to add to that record Sunday.
Others to watch
Jeff Gordon (+800)
Gordon leads all active drivers with four wins at Pocono. His last win here came in 2007 and he has 16 Top 5s, 24 Top 10s and two poles. Gordon and the No. 24 team have been plagued by gremlins all season, but if they can cage them and keep it together, Gordon could be a real threat.
Jimmie Johnson (+500)
Johnson has shown everyone that the shine on his championship armor needs a little polishing. After a few weeks of misery, Johnson heads to Pocono looking for some much needed relief in the form of a win or at least a decent finish. He does have two wins here, although his last victory was in 2004 along with five Top 5s, 10 Top-10 finishes and two poles. If Johnson and the team can keep it together and avoid trouble they might just shine come Sunday.
Ryan Newman (+3000)
The long shot this week, Newman has a win this season and has been competitive lately. At Pocono he has one win (2003) along with six Top 5s, seven Top 10s and two poles. He was fifth in this race last season and could easily be in position to make a run to the front Sunday.
Head to head
Kyle Busch vs. Kurt Busch
Kyle’s hot, Kurt’s hotter. Kyle has one Top 5 and two Top-10 finishes here. His older brother has two wins, seven Top 5s and nine Top 10s. Look for Kurt to give his younger brother some lessons and finish ahead of him Sunday.
Jeff Burton vs. Greg Biffle
Both Burton and Biffle have been competitive this season, although, neither have visited Victory Lane. Burton has seven Top 5s and 15 Top-10 finishes here. Biffle has one Top-5 showing and two Top 10s. Biffle and his No. 16 team seem to have lost their edge in the last couple of weeks, so look for Burton to come out on top of this matchup.
Kevin Harvick vs. Mark Martin
Experience versus tenacity. Harvick has two Top 5s and five Top 10s. Martin has an incredible record of 19 Top 5s and 32 Top 10s along with three poles here. Harvick wants to at least leave here maintaining his points lead. Martin wants to get back into victory lane. Martin has the experience, motivation and will trump Harvick Sunday.
Practice Notes - Pocono
By Micah Roberts
Top 8 Driver Ratings Follwing all Practice and Qualifying Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Denny Hamlin 5/1 3rd 5th 18th 3rd
Three-time Pocono winner; using chassis that has won two races in two 2010 starts.
2. Jeff Burton 15/1 9th 13th 3rd 1st
Using chassis that finished second at Dover and 12th at Texas; Ran most laps in practice.
3. Jimmie Johnson 5/1 1st 26th 1st 2nd
Two-time Pocono winner, sweeping 2004 season. Using 16th-place Dover chassis.
4. Clint Bowyer 20/1 15th 2nd 4th 12th
Led with 10 laps to go in last Pocono race, finished third. One of the better flat track drivers.
5. Juan Pablo Montoya 15/1 2nd 7th 2nd 6th
Outstanding single lap and average lap speeds throughout practice. Using Las Vegas chassis.
6. Kyle Busch 8/1 6th 1st 5th 14th
Only Pocono top-five finish came in his first start ever. Practice says career best finish Sunday.
7. Kevin Harvick 18/1 14th 22nd 6th 5th
Top average speeds in first practice 2. Using brand new chassis. Pocono average finish of 15.7.
8. Tony Stewart 20/1 17th 6th 12th 11th
Won this race in 2009 with back-up chassis starting from rear. Best practice in two months.