Good Sam Club 500 Betting News and Notes

Driver Handicaps: Talladega
By: Jeff Wackerlin
By Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday's Good Sam Club 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 188-lap event.

Who's HOT at Talladega
• Clint Bowyer has finished seventh or better in his last three starts, including a win in this event last year.
• Kevin Harvick has finished fifth or better in his last three starts, including a win in the 2010 spring race.
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in wins (6) and laps led (831).
• Five-time winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. has led the most laps (168) in the eight races with the COT.
• Spring winner Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with a 12.5 average finish in the last 10 races.
• Tony Stewart has one win and six runner-up finishes.
• Brad Keselowski has three top 10s in five starts, including one win.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in four of his five starts.
• Kurt Busch leads all drivers with six or more starts with a 13.9 average finish.

Keep an Eye on at Talladega
• Juan Pablo Montoya finished third in both Talladega races last season.
• David Ragan will return in the same car he won the July Daytona race with.
• Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton each have a top five Driver Rating in the last 13 races at Talladega.
• Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth have each finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races on the season.
• Greg Biffle has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five starts at Talladega.
• Mark Martin has posted an 8.0 average finish in his last three starts at Talladega.
• Kyle Busch (124) and Jamie McMurray(67) rank in the top 10 in laps led in the eight races with the COT at Talladega.
• Four-time restrictor-plate winner Michael Waltrip and 2011 Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne are entered in the Good Sam Club 500.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Steve Blevins: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Greg Biffle
Ricky Hamber: Clint Bowyer

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Talladega unless noted)

1. Carl Edwards: Coming off first top 10 (sixth) in last nine races; 20.9 average finish in 14 starts; Leads all drivers with a 13.5 average finish since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 677) that last finished sixth with at Talladega in April.

2. Kevin Harvick: Winner of the 2010 spring race; Coming off third consecutive top five; 14.3 average finish in 21 starts; Fifth among all drivers in average finish (16.4) and laps led (75) that have competed in the eight races with the COT; Third among all drivers in average finish (13.8) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona an Talladega); Will debut a new car (chassis No. 377) in the Good Sam Club 500.

3. Matt Kenseth: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in last nine starts; Finished 36th in the spring after a crash; Ninth among all drivers in average finish (17.2) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona an Talladega); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 779) that he finished second with at Daytona International Speedway in July.

4. Kyle Busch: Winner of the 2008 spring race; Last of two top 10s in 12 starts came in the 2010 spring race; Finished 35th in the spring after a crash; Fourth in laps led (124) in the eight races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 321) in the Good Sam Club 500.

5. Tony Stewart: Winner of this event in 2008; Has yet to finish in the top 15 in five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Third in laps led (125) in the eight races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 634) that he finished 17th with at Talladega in April.

6. Brad Keselowski: Winner of the 2009 spring race; Last of three top 10s in five starts came in this event last year; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 639) that he finished 15th at Daytona International Speedway in July.

7. Kurt Busch: Has finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 14 starts; Led 19 laps and finished 18th in the spring; Fourth among all drivers in average finish (14.2) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 640) that he raced at Talladega in the spring and won the Budweiser Shootout at Daytona with.

8. Jimmie Johnson: Coming off second win in 19 starts; Has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 11 starts; Second in average finish (12.4) among all drivers that have competed in the eight races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 628) that he drive to Victory Lane in April.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Last of five wins came in this event in 2004; Coming off ninth top five in 23 starts; Has scored three top 10s with in seven starts with Hendrick Motorsports; First in laps led (168) in the eight races with the COT; Eighth among all drivers in average finish (16.7) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona an Talladega); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 629) that he finished fourth with at Talladega in April.

10. Ryan Newman: Finished third in first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009; Has yet to finish in the top 20 in last four starts with SHR; Posted six top 10s in previous 14 starts with Penske Racing.

11. Jeff Gordon: Won the pole and finished third in the spring; Finish was second consecutive top 10; Last of six wins came in 2007 when he swept both races; 10th among all drivers in average finish (17.6) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega).

12. Denny Hamlin: Finished 23rd in the spring; Last of four top 10s in 11 starts came in this event in 2010; Second in laps led (146) in the eight races with the COT.

13. Clint Bowyer: Defending race winner; Coming off third consecutive top 10; Leads all drivers in average finish (10.8) among all drivers that have competed in the eight races with the COT; Sixth among all drivers in average finish (15.3) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega); Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 338) that teammate Paul Menard raced to a 12th-place finish at Talladega in April.

14. AJ Allmendinger: 26.7 average finish in six starts; Has yet to finish in the top 10; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 722) that he finished 11th with at Talladega in April.

15. Kasey Kahne: 31.5 average finish in two starts with Team Red Bull; Two runner-up finishes are only top 10s in previous 13 starts.

16. Greg Biffle: Coming off third top 10 in last five starts; 20.9 average finish in 17 starts; Fourth among all drivers in average finish (14.9) that have competed in the eight races with the COT; Fifth among all drivers in average finish (15.3) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 689) that he finished 18th with at Daytona International Speedway in July.

17. David Ragan: Finished 39th in the spring after a crash; Last of three top 10s in nine starts came in the 2010 spring race; Seventh among all drivers in average finish (16.6) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 691) that he won with at Daytona International Speedway in July.

18. Marcos Ambrose: Only top-30 finish in five starts came in the 2009 spring race in fourth; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 721) that he finished 17th with at Daytona International Speedway in July.

19. Juan Pablo Montoya: Has finished third in two of the last three races; 16.4 average finish in nine starts; Third among all drivers in average finish (14.6) that have competed in the eight races with the COT; Second among all drivers in average finish (13.6) since 2009 (11 races) on restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona an Talladega); Will debut a new car (chassis No. 1117) in the Good Sam Club 500.

20. Mark Martin: Coming off 24th top 10 in 47 starts; 8.0 average finish in last three starts; Last of two wins came in the 1997 spring race with Roush Racing.

Good Sam Club 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

As if last week’s race at Charlotte didn’t shuffle things up enough in NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship, we get the ultimate wild card race at Talladega this week. Every driver has a chance to win and each has also the same chance at finishing 30th or worse. Only five races are left and after Sunday’s race, things should be a lot clearer.

One of the greatest things I like about this year’s restrictor-plate racing, beyond cars going close to 200 mph, is the tandem racing. I like seeing teammates working together, or drivers who don’t really like each other learning to trust one another as they create an impromptu alliance because they have to in the moment. It’s a nice change of pace and adds some spice to the 36 race season.

What we have seen for the most part is teammates finding each other regardless if it means losing a few positions while waiting for their partner to catch up. The Hendrick drivers all figure to pair-up, as will Roush and RCR. Where it gets fun is when a driver’s partner has fallen out of the race and now they have to see who finds them attractive and is willing to give up on their current alliance.

It’s all about who is fastest paired up. Some drivers are better as pushers than pullers in the draft and after three races in this type of format, most teams have their plan B and C options knowing who will be the best option for them when plan A goes crashing, and it usually does.

The restrictor-plates for this week’s race will be a little larger than what we have seen in the first three plate races which will makes the speeds be a little bit higher, but most drivers still expect tandem racing to be the fastest way around the track.

The big story last week was Jimmie Johnson crashing late in the Charlotte race giving him a 34th-place finish and dropping him five positions to eighth in points, 35 points behind Carl Edwards. We can never count him out, but he’s in a position unlike any we’ve seen him in over the last five years of winning championships. He comes to Talladega this week hoping to match his victory from the first race there in April and is using the same car from that race this week.

For Edwards, he can probably taste the victory champagne already as he continues to have excellent finishes week after week. He has Las Vegas as his only victory on the season, but his consistency is what has gotten him to the top. He currently leads all drivers in top-five (16) and Top-10 finishes (22).

Roush drivers have proven to be better in the restrictor-plate races over the last two seasons, but Edwards looks to have a slim chance at finishing well. In 14 career races at Talladega he has only one top five finish there, fifth-place in 2005. If he can duplicate his sixth-place finish from April, he will consider it a victory and be in prime position to capture the championship with four races to go.

The driver currently five points back in second-place that no one seems to be talking about is Kevin Harvick. He’s tied with Kyle Busch for the most wins on the season with four, but hasn’t garnered the attention deserved for such an outstanding season. This week at Talladega, he’ll be one of the favorites because he’s shown to be one of the more consistent drivers over his last three races there. He won and finished runner-up in 2010 and then finished fifth in this year’s race.

“Restrictor plate stuff has been great for us, you never know how it is going to go at Talladega, but we have been pretty good there in the past," Harvick said earlier this week. "I don’t anticipate the restrictor plate change doing anything. I think the speeds will be a little bit higher. I think the pop-off valve will probably be a bigger change than the restrictor plate for sure. I don’t think it’s going to change the two-car tandem other than you’re going to have to switch spots a lot more to keep the engine cool. For whatever reason, we’ve just always had a good plate program at RCR and when you have good cars, it makes it a lot easier to have success. We’ll stick with our teammates and see where we fall at the end.

Jeff Gordon is a six-time Talladega winner and finished third in the April race as three cars came to the finish line simultaneously. He knows he's got good stuff, but he's still not quite sure what his strategy will be for Sunday.

“My strategy is to race whatever way gives us the best chance to win," said Gordon. "I think the bonus ($100k to the driver who leads the most laps, provided there are 100 or more lead changes during the race) is a cool thing that the track is doing, and 100 might be reachable. Our plan is to be there at the end battling for the win. That could mean battling lap-after-lap for the lead, or it could mean staying a safe distance back and watching the race unfold. It could also be a mixture of the two. We’ll just have to wait and see once the green flag is waved."

The driver sneaking up on everyone is 2003 NASCAR Champion Matt Kenseth who won last week’s race, his third of the season. He’s only seven points behind and has put together four straight races coming in that has seen him finish sixth or better. He’s in the same boat as his teammate, Edwards, in that he hasn’t had a lot of success at Talladega, but if he could muster a top-10 finish it would go along way for the stretch run. His last top-10 at Talladega came in 2006. This week he'll be using the same chassis that finished runner-up at Daytona in July, the car that pushed David Ragan to victory.

“It’s kind of different doing a team-style race because you can’t do it by yourself at these superspeedway tracks anymore, you need a partner in order to have a good race," said Kenseth. "If you win or finish second, you know the other guy was just as responsible for your finish as you were in a way, so it’s definitely different. We had a great finish last weekend so we’ll take the momentum and just try to keep getting the best finishes we can in these final five weekends of the season for our No. 17 team.” Just a side note on Kenseth's teammate David Ragan: He'll be using that same winning car that Kenseth pushed to victory at Daytona this week at Talladega. Of all the types of tracks on the circuit, Ragan has always looked his most comfortable in plate races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. becomes a player this week because of the plates, even though he says he hates them, especially with having the tandem racing. But nevertheless, he's a five-time winner at Talladega and can run with the best of them. Despite not winning at Talladega since 2004, he has shown some consistency. This type of racing is in his blood. He finished fourth in the April race and was runner-up in 2009. This could be the ideal situation for him to end several winless streaks all at once.

As is the case for any restrictor-plate race, be careful of laying too much in any driver match-up no matter who the driver is. By the same token, you can almost take any driver at plus-money because anything can, and usually does happen. A long shot probably has a better chance of hitting at any one of the plate race tracks than any other type. There aren't many odds-to-win bets that anyone could say, "that driver has no shot this week."

Top 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
3) #33 Clint Bowyer (10/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
5) #2 Kurt Busch (12/1)

NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle
Covers.com

It’s the fifth race in NASCAR’s Chase for the Sprint Cup and, according to many, Sunday’s Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega Superspeedway is the wildcard that could make or break a driver’s entire season.

With high speeds, close racing and a razor thin margin of error, Talladega’s 2.66-mile oval can end a driver’s race in the blink of an eye. And a bad finish can change the Sprint Cup standings in an instant.

Just ask this week’s favorite Jimmie Johnson. Last week at Charlotte, Johnson was within 20 laps of a Top-10 finish after battling from the back of the pack when disaster struck. Johnson crashed and ended the night in the garage in 34th place. He dropped five places in the standings and enters Talladega in eighth.

So why is he the favorite?

Johnson has shown an uncanny ability to bounce back from adversity on more than one occasion. He has a 35-point deficit in the standings, which roughly translates to a 145-point deficit in the points format from years past. In 2006, Johnson made up a 146-point deficit with five races remaining to win his first championship. In 2007, he ripped off a string of four consecutive victories with five races. He knows how to succeed when faced with adversity and has proven that more than once.

Johnson won here in the spring, surviving a record 88 lead changes and winning by .002 seconds - the closet margin of victory since the inception of electronic scoring in 1993. It was Johnson’s second win at Talladega and his only victory of the season prior to the Chase.

There are a few changes this time around. In order to break up the two car packs that have been the norm in the last few races, NASCAR has instituted several changes that they hope will keep the cars from running in pairs for very long. Among the changes are larger engine restrictor plates that will add an additional 7-10 horsepower.

None of the changes matter to Johnson, however.

"I think with the new rules it's a step to make us pass more. I don't think we are going to be able to stay connected as long,” Johnson told reporters. “Any time you put a bigger plate on the cars it allows for a larger closing rate with more opportunities to pass with more power. We'll get down there and see what happens. I don't care what the rules are. I learned a long time ago to stop worrying about that stuff. I just go."

Jeff Gordon hopes he will be the one to go to Victory Lane Sunday. Like Johnson, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Gordon is buried deep in the Chase standings. Unlike Johnson, Gordon leads all active drivers at Talladega with six wins. After a couple of miserable races, Gordon needs nothing short of a win or his Chase could be over.

Kevin Harvick finished fifth here in the spring and has won four races since. Coming off three straight Top-10 finishes, along with a win and top five since the Chase began, Harvick could easily spoil the show and add another win to the victory he got at Talladega in 2005.

Head to head

Current points leader Carl Edwards wants a Sprint Cup win at Talladega. He’s come close on several occasions but has never been able to seal the deal. Likewise for his teammate, Matt Kenseth. Kenseth is currently third in the points and, coming off a win at Charlotte, wants to carry that momentum into Sunday. Both have the motivation, but despite his lower driver rating, (67.8 to Kenseth’s 82.5), look for Edwards to finish ahead of his Roush-Fenway Racing teammate Sunday.

Kurt Busch vs. Denny Hamlin: Neither has won at Talladega. Busch has several strong runs in the first five Chase races, while Hamlin has struggled. Busch has a driver rating of 86.9 while Hamlin comes in with a 90.9. Based on that, give Hamlin the edge Sunday.

Bottom Line

Thirty-three of 84 races at Talladega have been won from the top-two starting positions, including 13 from the pole. Twenty-three have been won from a starting position outside the Top 10. The most recent driver to win from the pole was Jeff Gordon in 2007 (spring). Gordon also holds the distinction of being the furthest back in the field a race winner started. That was 36th when Gordon won in 2000.

Wild thing

If there are 100 or more lead changes in Sunday’s event, the driver who takes the lead the most times will win $100,000. Expect the intensity to be ratcheted up as drivers will be trying to add an extra payday.

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson (+1,200)
Jeff Gordon (+1,200)
Kevin Harvick (+1,000)

NASCAR takes over Talladega on Sunday
By: Brian Graham
Statfox.com

Drivers to Watch

Jeff Gordon (12/1) - With 20 career wins (and 44 top-5’s) in his career at superspeedways, Gordon is our pick for Sunday’s race champion. No. 24 has six of those victories at Talladega and placed third at this track in April after winning the pole. He’s been cold during this Chase, sitting 66 points out of first, but you can never count Gordon out, especially with 12-to-1 odds.

Jimmie Johnson (12/1) - He may be slipping from contention in defending his five titles, but this is certainly a race that can shoot Johnson up the standings. He won the Aaron’s 499 at this track in April and if you discount his two accidents at this track (2009 and 2010) his average finish is 5.1 in his past eight races at Talladega. With six career victories at superspeedways, Johnson is certainly worth a small wager at 12-to-1 odds.

Kevin Harvick (10/1) – The winner of the 2010 Aaron’s 499 on this track is favored to win again on Sunday. He has four career victories at superspeedways and currently sits in second place in the Cup Standings due to his average finish of 6.3 in his past seven races this year. With a strong payout for the favorite, you might as well drop a Unit on the chalk here.

Carl Edwards (15/1) - Although he still has just one victory this season (occurring 28 races ago in the third race of the season), Edwards remains in first place in the Cup Standings thanks to a current run of eight straight top-9 finishes. This includes six top-5’s over this eight-race span. But with just one top-10 at Talladega in his past nine starts at this track, your money is better spent on another driver.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1) - Junior has five career wins at Talladega, but his last victory at this track occurred in 2004. Since then, he has a mere two top-5’s in 13 Talladega starts. This season has also been void of many in-contention races, as he has just one top-5 finish in his past 18 starts this year.

NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings
By Micah Roberts
Vegasinsider.com

This Week's Race: Good Sam Club 500 from Talladega Superspeedway

Practice Notes - Talladega
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Talladega 1*
1 Kevin Harvick 10/1 17th DNP 13th 5th
Notes: 2010 winner with two additional plate race wins at Daytona; tandem racing w/Paul Menard

2 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1 21st 6th 6th 4th
Notes: Five-time winner, the last time in 2004, runner-up in 2009; tandem racing w/Johnson

3 Jeff Gordon 12/1 4th 10th 5th 3rd
Notes: Six-time winner, the last in 2007, inches away from winning in April; tandem racing w/Martin

4 Jimmie Johnson 12/1 22nd 5th 2nd 1st
Notes: Two-time winner, has never been so desperate for points in fall race; using winning car from April.

5 Clint Bowyer 20/1 13th DNP 3rd 2nd
Notes: 2010 fall winner will be using teammate Paul Menard's chassis; tandem racing w/Jeff Burton

6 Kurt Busch 12/1 12th 15th 14th 18th
Notes: No wins in any point plate races. Using winning Bud Shootout car; tandem racing w/Regan Smith.

7 Kyle Busch 12/1 26th 4th 34th 35th
Notes: 2008 winner, his only top-five finish. Debuts new chassis; tandem racing w/Joey Logano.

8 Mark Martin 30/1 3rd 9th 1st 8th
Notes: Two-time winner, the last coming in 1997. Solid candidate because of owner and tandem partner.

9 David Ragan 20/1 15th 12th 8th 39th
Notes: Using winning Daytona chassis from July, also will have same driver (Kenseth) pushing him again.

10 Matt Kenseth 20/1 16th 11th 11th 36th
Notes: No top-10s since 2006, but is using same chassis that pushed Ragan to win at Daytona

Note: * Results from the season's first race held at Talladega on April 17, 2011. This is the fourth and final restrictor-plate race of the season.

The fastest way around restrictor-plate races this season has been with drivers teaming up together forming a two-car draft train. Most drivers already know who they'll be tandem racing with on Sunday.