Goody's 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Holy smokes, it's been a long time since we've seen a driver win four straight NASCAR Sprint Cup races and Joey Logano has a chance to do it Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. So much for the target on his back at Talladega after wrecking Matt Kenseth at Kansas two weeks ago. He not only fended off any veteran wrath, he ends up winning the race. Crazy!
But is he out of the clear yet? Could it be that justice will be served when it counts most, during the Eliminator Round? If one of the veteran drivers were going to attempt to teach Logano a lesson, wouldn't it matter more if they did it on a track where he was most likely to win?
This week's race at Martinsville could see the No. 22 Pennzoil Ford punted easily, but why mess with him here? At Texas, that's a place he can win at. So if the veterans wanting to really teach Logano a lesson want to really make an impact, why not make him pay at a track he can win at?
In the next Chase round -- Elimination Round -- there's Martinsville this week, then Texas and then Phoenix.
Logano most likely won't win this week -- even though he's had a top-five finish in his past three starts there, and Harvick's got Phoenix wrapped up liked he's done the past four races there, so that leaves Texas as the big day of justice to teach Logano a lesson. If you really want to make Logano feel some wrath, Matt Kenseth, or several other veterans like Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick, then Texas is the place.
As it sits now, Logano advances with seven other drivers as possible candidates to win the 2015 Sprint Cup. Hamlin, Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman are out.
While we can most likely cross out Logano as a candidate to win this week at Martinsville -- maybe not, he did lead 108 laps in March 29 race, we have to look at three drivers that we have been looking at on the the flat half-mile Virginia layout for the past decade in every race.
Jeff Gordon will be making his 46th and final Martinsville start -- maybe -- on Sunday and has compiled eight wins with a track best 6.8 average finish. His last win came in the fall of 2013 and he was runner-up to Dale Earnhardt Jr. in this race last season. No one is better than Gordon here, but Jimmie Johnson may disagree.
Johnson has eight wins in 27 starts with a 7.3 average. The two Hendrick Motorsports teammates are tied as the active leaders in Martinsville wins. Johnson was also the last driver to win four straight races. He did in in the 2007 Chase using Martinsville as one of the races en route to the second of his six Sprint Cup titles. His last win on the flat half-mile layout was in 2013.
Hamlin, the native Virginian, only has five wins on the track including the race there earlier this season. Short flat tracks is what Hamlin is all about and he's probably kind of pissed about getting involved in the last wreck at Talladega -- thanks Harvick -- and being eliminated from the Chase.
Let's roll with Hamlin this week to sweep the season. No title, but he can keep his Martinsville crown and that's very important to him. Martinsville is about as consistent as it gets in NASCAR and the big-3 can be counted on.
Top Five Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
Driver Handicaps: Martinsville
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingome.com
MRN.com's detailed notes and statistics to help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Who's HOT at Martinsville
• Jeff Gordon, an eight-time winner, leads all drivers in top 10s (36) and laps led (3,744).
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in 14 of the last 17 races, including five wins with his last coming in the spring.
• Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top five in all of the last three races, posting an average finish of 4.0 in that span.
• Matt Kenseth has combined to lead 347 laps and post an average finish of 6.4 in his five track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Jimmie Johnson, an eight-time winner, has a 7.3 average finish in 27 starts, but has finished 32nd or worse in his last two starts.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has recorded 10 top 10s in 15 track starts with Hendrick Motorsports, including a win in this event last year.
• Clint Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in six of his last seven starts.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Martinsville
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 in two of his three Martinsville starts with Stewart-Haas Racing and led 154 laps in the spring.
• Kurt Busch won in his first Martinsville start with Stewart-Haas Racing in the 2014 spring race. He will be back in the same car he led 21 laps and finished 14th with in March.
• Brad Keselowski is coming off his best Martinsville finish (second) and sixth top 10 in 11 overall starts.
• Martinsville is the site of Tony Stewart's last Sprint Cup top-five finish, fourth last year in this event.
• Carl Edwards was running towards the top five in his first Martinsville start with Joe Gibbs Racing in the spring until he had a tire go down late in the race.
• Jamie McMurray, who finished 10th in the spring, ranks fifth in laps led (84) in the two Martinsville races with the current tire combination.
• David Ragan (7.5), Kyle Busch (11.0) and Ryan Newman (15.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the two Martinsville races with the current tire combination. Busch did not race in the spring race due to an injury.
• Martin Truex Jr. finished sixth in the spring in his first Martinsville start with crew chief Cole Pearn.
• Danica Patrick finished seventh in the spring at Martinsville for one of her six career Sprint Cup top 10s.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Jeff Gordon
Pete Pistone: Denny Hamlin
Robbie Mays: Jeff Gordon
John Singler: Jeff Gordon
Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Five Races at Martinsville
Jeff Gordon has posted a 5.4 average finish in the last five Martinsville races. Gordon's last of eight wins came in the 2013 fall race. Along with being tied with teammate Jimmie Johnson for the most wins among active drivers, Gordon leads all in laps led (3,744), top fives (28) and poles (7). This past spring Gordon worked his way to the lead on lap 442, but was penalized for speeding when he entered pit road on lap 462. He rebounded to finish ninth.
Matt Kenseth is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in the all of the last four races at Martinsville. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Kenseth has posted an average finish of 6.4 in five starts at the track.
Clint Bowyer snapped a streak of six consecutive top 10s at Martinsville in the spring with a 13th-place finish. Bowyer's 6.8 average finish in the last five races at the half-mile track ranks third among all drivers.
Denny Hamlin is coming off his fifth win at Martinsville after leading 91 laps. Hamlin has only finished outside the top 10 four times in his 19 starts at the half-mile track.
Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top five in the last three races at Martinsville. Since Joining Team Penske, Logano has recorded an average finish of 9.8 and 207 laps led in five starts.
Kyle Busch will be making his first Martinsville start of the season after missing the spring race due to injury. Busch's last of nine top 10s in 20 starts came in the 2013 spring race, in fifth.
Kevin Harvick finished eighth in the spring at Martinsville after leading a race-high 154 laps. Harvick's only finish (33rd) outside the top 10 in three track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing came last year in this event after contact sent him to the garage for repairs. The weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 864) he raced in the spring at Martinsville.
Greg Biffle has not finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Martinsville. His last of five top 10s in 25 starts came in this event in 2013, the last of three straight. Martinsville is Biffle's worst short-track on the circuit based off his 19.8 average finish.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. won this event last year for his third consecutive top 10. He returned in that winning car this past spring only to finish 36th after getting caught up in an accident followed by mechanical issues.
Tony Stewart scored his last top five in the Sprint Cup Series last fall at Martinsville, in fourth. Stewart led eight laps in the spring and finished 20th. This weekend, Stewart will return in the same car he's posted a 13.7 average finish in his last three Martinsville starts.
Jimmie Johnson has finished 32nd and 35th, respectively, in his last two Martinsville starts after finished in the top five in his previous four starts, which included two wins. His last of eight wins came in this event in 2013.
Carl Edwards was running in the top 10 in his first Martinsville start with Joe Gibbs Racing until a tire went down and he was forced to pit road late in the race. He finished 17th and it marked his seventh consecutive finish outside the top 10. Edwards' last of five top 10s in 22 starts came in this event in 2011 with Roush Fenway Racing.
Brad Keselowski scored his best finish at Martinsville in the spring after coming home second. The finish was his sixth top 10 in 11 starts and fifth in the last seven races. Keselowski's 18 laps led in the spring is a personal best at the track.
Aric Almirola finished 12th in the spring to lower his average finish to 13.3 in eight Martinsville starts with Richard Petty Motorsports. His last of three top 10s in 13 overall starts came in the 2014 spring race, in eighth.
Jamie McMurray finished 10th in the spring for his 13th top 10 in 25 Martinsville starts. He’s finished in the top 10 in three of his last five starts, including a 10th-place run in this event in 2013.
Paul Menard scored his only top 10 in 16 Martinsville starts in the 2014 spring race, in 10th. This weekend, Menard will return in the same car (chassis No. 488) that he finished 23rd with at Martinsville in the spring.
Trevor Bayne finished 18th in the spring to lower his average finish to 26.5 in two Martinsville starts.
Danica Patrick finished seventh in the spring for her first top 10 in five Martinsville starts. Her average finish is 20.4, which includes a 12th-place finish in her first track start in 2013.
Drivers to Watch - Virginia
By Sportsbook.ag
The Chase for the Sprint Cup Eliminator Round begins with the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 in Ridgeway, Virginia on Sunday. The racers come into this event after an exciting few races in the Contender Round, which saw Joey Logano come away with the victory in all three events.
The drivers will, however, be looking to forget these past few races and move on to Martinsville on Sunday. Martinsville features an oval-shaped track sometimes referred to as a paper clip with long straightaways and 12-degree bankings on each side of the multi-paved surface with straightaways being asphalt and the corners being concrete.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. won this race in 2014 and Denny Hamlin has won two of the past six races here. Jimmie Johnson, however, is the king at this event, winning five times since 2004.
With all of this out of the way, let’s see who could be entering victory lane on Sunday:
Drivers to Watch
Jimmie Johnson (6/1) - As mentioned earlier, Jimmie Johnson simply knows how to get it done at Martinsville. Johnson has owned this event in the past, winning five times since 2004. Even though his season has been extremely disappointing, Johnson finished in third place at the Hollywood Casino 400 two weeks back and will be going for the first place finish on Sunday. At 6/1, he’s a good pick based off his history at this event and upward trending performance.
Joey Logano (6/1) - As long as Logano is as hot as he currently is, it’s very risky not to throw a few units on him. Kyle Busch appeared to have had the hottest stretch of the NASCAR season, but Logano has topped what Busch did by winning three straight races at the most important time of the year. Not only has Logano won the past three races, but he has also finished outside of the top 10 in just two of the past 19 races. 6/1 gives you solid odds for a driver that is untouchable at the moment.
Jeff Gordon (6/1) - Gordon wasn’t mentioned earlier, but he has also had a lot of success at this event. Gordon, like Johnson, has won this event five times in his career, but they are a bit more scattered than Johnson’s wins. Gordon has also finished inside the top 10 at three straight races and four of the past five as well. He is being treated as one of the favorites by Vegas and it is for good reason.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1) - Dale Earnhardt Jr. was knocked out of the championship chase due to a wreck last week, but he will still be coming into this event looking for a win. Earnhardt Jr. won here a year ago and will be racing angry coming into this one. At 12/1, Earnhardt Jr. is far too talented of a driver to pass up on and is definitely worth a unit or two.
Tony Stewart (200/1) - At this point in his career, Tony Stewart is a complete dart throw to win an event. He is, however, getting crazy odds for somebody that has won twice here in his career. He also happened to have won pretty recently, taking home a first place finish back in 2011. If you’re looking for a dark horse to put one unit on then there won’t be many better than Stewart.