Harvick opens as 2016 Sprint Cup favorite, Kyle Busch co-second choice
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- Kyle Busch may have just won NASCAR’s Sprint Cup, but when setting odds for the 2016 season, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook went with last year’s champion, Kevin Harvick, as the 5-to-1 favorite, while installing Busch and two others as co-second favorites at 7-to-1 odds .
It’s easy to understand why Harvick is the favorite. His consistency over the past two seasons has been amazing, and there is little reason to believe his Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet won’t be every bit as good in 2016.
How good has Harvick been the past two seasons? For starters, he became the first driver since Jeff Gordon in 1995-96 to lead over 2,000 laps in two consecutive seasons. This past season, he finished in the top-five in 23 of 36 starts, including three wins and 13 second-place finishes.
One case against Harvick winning the Sprint Cup in 2016 is that the rules package might favor other drivers, particularly the four from the Joe Gibbs Racing garage. We got a glimpse this past season of the 2016 package at Kentucky and Darlington, both won by JGR drivers, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.
JGR was so far advanced when the low down-force set-up was introduced at Kentucky in July that all four of its drivers finished in the top five. Harvick finished eighth at Kentucky and fifth at Darlington.
Along with Busch at 7-to-1 odds are Joey Logano and six-time Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson. Johnson won five races last season and finished 10th in points, but had a rough summer after jumping out of the gate with four wins through May.
For Logano, it could be argued he had a better 2015 than Harvick. He had a series-leading six wins to go along with 22 top-five finishes and swept all three races during the Contender Round of the Chase. But that’s where the drama began that basically derailed his hope for a title. He punted Matt Kenseth at Kansas, and Kenseth would retaliate at Martinsville two weeks later, ending Logano's day when he was leading late in the race.
But the good news for Logano is that he may have learned a lesson in the process, and he’s got a stellar Penske Racing team that should keep giving him great cars. Logano finished in the top five at Kentucky at Darlington.
Former Cup champions Kenseth and Brad Keselowski are each listed at 8-to-1, while Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch are 12-to-1. Edwards and Hamlin are interesting looks at that price because of the edge JGR drivers may have with the 2016 package.
It’s strange not to see Jeff Gordon’s name on the oddsboard. He’s been on the list of Sprint Cup futures ever since Las Vegas started regularly posting NASCAR betting numbers. Before Gordon, there weren’t many books that offered Sprint Cup futures or weekly races. You might have found the Daytona 500 at a few places, but demand among Vegas bettors didn’t emerge until Gordon’s popularity brought NASCAR into homes across America – so we started posting numbers, and they kept betting it. Gordon wasn’t the sole cause for NASCAR betting in Las Vegas, but he was the major link to the popularity of the sport in the west.
Here’s a look at the 2016 futures posted at the Westgate:
ODDS TO WIN 2016 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
KEVIN HARVICK 5-1
JOEY LOGANO 7-1
KYLE BUSCH 7-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1
MATT KENSETH 8-1
CARL EDWARDS 12-1
DENNY HAMLIN 12-1
KURT BUSCH 12-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 15-1
KASEY KAHNE 25-1
KYLE LARSON 30-1
TONY STEWART 30-1
RYAN BLANEY 40-1
CHASE ELLIOTT 40-1
RYAN NEWMAN 40-1
CLINT BOWYER 40-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 40-1
GREG BIFFLE 100-1
AUSTIN DILLON 100-1
PAUL MENARD 100-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 100-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300-1
TREVOR BAYNE 300-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300-1
DANICA PATRICK 500-1
FIELD 100-1