Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 News and Notes

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

· Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 13.1
· Average Running Position of 9.4, third-best
· Driver Rating of 103.5, third-best
· 124 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 707 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.491 mph, third-fastest
· 1,551 Laps in the Top 15 (80.2%), third-most
· 442 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

· Two wins, two top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 20.3
· Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.5, sixth-best
· 102 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.024 mph, eighth-fastest
· 1,335 Laps in the Top 15 (69.0%), ninth-most
· 372 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Pretzel Toyota)

· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 17.5
· Average Running Position of 14.7, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 93.1, 10th-best
· 73 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· 1,344 Laps in the Top 15 (69.5%), sixth-most
· 356 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.9
· Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.1, fifth-best
· 113 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· 744 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.232 mph, fifth-fastest
· 1,339 Laps in the Top 15 (69.2%), seventh-most
· 444 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)

· Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 6.1
· Series-best Average Running Position of 7.9
· Series-best Driver Rating of 112.5
· 143 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· 741 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.700 mph, second-fastest
· Series-high 1,702 Laps in the Top 15 (88.0%)
· Series-high 512 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Job Skills Chevrolet)

· Two wins, 17 top fives, 22 top 10s; five poles
· Average finish of 11.2
· Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 96.3, seventh-best
· 106 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.076 mph, seventh-fastest
· 1,336 Laps in the Top 15 (69.0%), eighth-most
· 374 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)

· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 13.3
· Average Running Position of 12.0, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.5, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.010 mph, ninth-fastest
· 1,092 Laps in the Top 15 (71.1%), 12th-most
· 373 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· Two top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 16.0
· Average Running Position of 8.0, second-best
· Driver Rating of 111.0, second-best
· Series-high 249 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.790 mph
· 1,609 Laps in the Top 15 (83.2%), second-most
· 391 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)

· One win, five top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.3
· Driver Rating of 81.1, 13th-best
· 61 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· 766 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 9.9
· Average Running Position of 11.4, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 103.1, fourth-best
· 88 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 700 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.374 mph, fourth-fastest
· 1,520 Laps in the Top 15 (78.6%), fourth-most
· 455 Quality Passes, second-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)

· Five wins, 17 top fives, 29 top 10s
· Average finish of 13.3
· Average Running Position of 14.4, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.4, 12th-best
· 58 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.846 mph, 11th-fastest
· 1,304 Laps in the Top 15 (67.4%), 10th-most
· 357 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice Chevrolet)

· One win, nine top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.4
· Average Running Position of 13.8, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.0, eighth-best
· 55 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· 713 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.093 mph, sixth-fastest
· 1,346 Laps in the Top 15 (69.6%), fifth-most
· 388 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

This week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan will have more hype than it usually does. Twice a year we get usual motor city banter back and forth between the executives from all the competing automobile manufacturers, but it‘ll be much different this week just because of the great lead-in they got throughout America from the fireworks that went off at Pocono last week.

While the “I’m better than you” trash talk between Ford, Chevy, Dodge, and Toyota is always entertaining, watching angry drivers settle scores is a little bit more gripping.

We knew a gasket was going to blow some day, and it finally did last week at Pocono. Joey Logano finally blew up at someone for being picked on. The young phenom had enough of Kevin Harvick’s bully tactics after being punted and then had a meltdown on national TV calling Harvick “stupid” and bringing Harvick’s wife into the fray. It was pretty entertaining, the best of the year thus far.

Then we got to hear Tony Stewart blow some smoke; he’s not happy with a lot of the drivers and threatened to be like the old Tony this week, and we also got to see two more sets of teammates, Kasey Kahne and A.J. Allmendinger, go after it.

The whole manufacturer angle is taking a back seat at Michigan this week which may be good news for the Ford brand. Ford had absolutely dominated Michigan since the tracks inception in 1969, but they have only won one race there in the last five. The demise can be directly linked the Roush-Fenway group and their current struggles. From 2002 through 2008, a Roush driver had won seven different Michigan races and has won 11 all-time, tied for the most by an owner in track history. When you throw in the four additional wins from the Nationwide series and five from the Truck series, Roush drivers should have a luxury in pedigree over every other team in the garage.

However, the woes from 2009 have continued for the Roush stable as they can’t seem to find the right mix on the down-force tracks. They remain winless through 14 races in 2010 and haven’t looked like they’re going to compete anytime soon. The three top Roush drivers, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Carl Edwards, are all currently within the top-12 in points, but don’t look like the 2008 group that combined to win 11 races.

If there is any track that could change Roush’s fortunes, it could be Michigan. The importance of the race being run in Ford’s backyard is stressed even more because Ford will debut their new RF9 engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate race. All nine of the regular Ford entries will be using the new engine this week between the Roush, Petty, and Wood Brothers drivers.

The timing is obvious because the race is in Michigan, in front of all the executives, and they hope to flex some new muscle under the hood, but why haven’t they used this engine yet. It’s apparent that there still is some skepticism within the organizations, but with all the money that has been spent on the engine and with all the teams struggling to find a win, these are desperate times and they feel they need to at least gamble a little bit.

Taking a shot to be faster with an engine that has question marks and compete for a win sounds much better than racing for 10th place, as seems to be the case every week with Edwards, Biffle and Kenseth. The engine becomes the one variable that could sway value in the bettors favor on all three of those drivers along with Kasey Kahne. All four can be found with odds at 20/1 or higher. By the time practice rolls around and we all get to see some of the speeds and influence from the new engine, those odds are not likely to be there. So if you think they’ll be faster, which they should, make your bets before Friday on the Fords.

The best value on the board may be Carl Edwards who has an amazing NASCAR loop rating of 112.5 which tops all drivers. Edwards is listed 20/1 this week just because of the horrendous slump he’s mired in, but if there is any track that can get him out of the funk, Michigan would be it. He’s a two-time winner on the track and has an all-time track best career average finish of 6.1. Last season, while in the midst of a similar run of mediocrity, Edwards still managed to scrape up two fourth-place finishes in each of the Michigan races.

Matt Kenseth has been almost as good as Edwards over his career at Michigan which includes two wins. Of the Roush drivers this week, Kenseth looks to be an equal candidate to win with Edwards for the Ford brand. He‘ll be using the chassis that got bumped out of the way by Jeff Gordon in the final laps at Martinsville taking him from at least a top-5 finish to 18th-place after all the lead lap cars passed him.

It’s not going to be easy getting by the Chevy bow-ties, the Gibbs Toyota’s, or even Kurt Busch’s Dodge this week.

Leading the charge for Chevy will be Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Gordon finished second in both Michigan races last season and has been fantastic on all down force tracks the last season and a half.

Jimmie Johnson, surprisingly, has never won at Michigan, one of only five on the circuit he’s never won at and the only one that the series races twice a year on that he’s never won at. He has one of his worst average finishes of any track at 16.0, however, I like Johnson to do very well this week; maybe get his best finish ever on the track. It also helps that he’ll be using a chassis this week that finished first in Las Vegas and runner-up at Texas.

Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin might just be too good for anyone at this point. They finished 1-2 last week at Pocono and have combined to win six of the 14 on the season. Neither has ever won at Michigan with Hamlin having the better runs of the two with a 13.3 average finish in eight career starts.

Kurt Busch should be considered a great candidate to win because of his team’s success on the down force tracks this season that include a win at Charlotte and Atlanta, along with a sixth-place finish on the sister-track of California. Busch is a two-time winner at Michigan over his career winning in a Roush Ford and a Penske Dodge.

The two winners from last year don’t appear to be solid contenders this week. Brian Vickers is out for the season, but his car wasn’t very good in any race while he was driving. Mark Martin won this race a year ago, but he doesn’t seem to have the same stuff like he did all year. He looks closer to teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. this year rather than the version he looked like a season ago, which was closer to his other teammate, Jimmie Johnson.

Speaking of Dale Earnhardt Jr., this is the last track that he won at, two years ago, and it was done somewhat with mirrors and magic as he miraculously crossed the finish line on fumes.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (20/1)
4) #2 Kurt Busch (8/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)

Driver Handicaps: Michigan
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan Int'l Speedway for Sunday's Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 200-lap event.

Who's HOT at Michigan
• Two-time winner Carl Edwards leads all drivers with a 6.1 average finish.
• Defending event winner Mark Martin leads all full-time drivers in wins (5), top fives (17) and top 10s (29).
• Two-time winner Matt Kenseth has only finished outside of the top 15 three times in 21 starts.
• Two-time winner Jeff Gordon finished second in both races in 2009.
• Tony Stewart has an 8.1 average finish in his last seven starts.
• Clint Bowyer and Denny Hamlin each finished in the top 10 in both races in 2009.

Keep an Eye on at Michigan
• Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps (356) with the COT at Michigan.
• Michigan is one of four tracks where Greg Biffle has scored multiple wins at.
• Kyle Busch, who has finished in the top 10 in his last eight starts of the season, has an 11.4 average finish in the nine races on 2-mile tracks with the COT.
• Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished second and third, respectively, at Auto Club February and combined to lead 73 laps.
• Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. both have top 10 driver ratings in the last 10 races at MIS.
• Joey Logano has an 8.6 average finish in his last three starts on 2-mile speedways.

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

1. Kevin Harvick: Six top 10s in 18 starts; Seventh-best average finish (12.5) in the four races with the COT; Has yet to lead a lap in the last 12 races; Will race the same car (chassis No. 299) that finished second at Las Vegas in February.

2. Kyle Busch: Eighth-best average finish (12.8) in the four races with the COT; Only top five (second) came with Joe Gibbs Racing in the 2008 August race; Started second and finished 13th in this event last year.

3. Denny Hamlin: 16.5 average finish in the four races with the COT; Scored best finish (third) in eight starts in this event last year.

4. Matt Kenseth: Fifth-best average finish (10.5) in the four races with the COT; Two wins and 13 tops 10s in 21 starts; Finished 20th in this event last year because he had to pit late due to a loose wheel; Will race the same car (chassis No. 644) that finished 18th at Martinsville in March.

5. Kurt Busch: 25.2 average finish in the four races with the COT; Finished eighth in this event last year; Only other top 10 in seven starts with Penske Racing was a win the 2007 August race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 725) that finished third at Darlington in May.

6. Jimmie Johnson: 19.5 average finish in the four races with the COT; Only driver to lead more than 110 laps with the COT (356); Led 146 laps in this event last year; Finished 22nd in that event after running out of fuel on the last lap while leading; Has recorded six top 10s in 16 starts; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 580) that he won the Las Vegas race with in February.

7. Jeff Gordon: 16.0 average finish in the four races with the COT; Finished second in both races in 2009; Has recorded two wins and 22 top 10s in 34 starts.

8. Jeff Burton: 17.5 average finish in the four races with the COT; Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 11 starts with Richard Childress Racing; Eight top 10s came with Roush Racing; Will race the same car (chassis No. 307) that finished 25th at Charlotte last month after cutting a left-rear tire.

9. Carl Edwards: Two-time winner; Leads all drivers with a 4.0 average finish in the four races with the COT; Has finished seventh or better in the last six races; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 565) that finished 33rd at Texas in April after a late-race accident.

10. Greg Biffle: Two-time winner; Sixth-best average finish (12.2) in the four races with the COT; Led 42 laps and finished fifth in this event last year; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 648) that finished 22nd at Darlington last month.

11. Mark Martin: Leads all full-times drivers in wins (5), top fives (17) and top 10s (29); Won this event last year on fuel mileage; 15.8 average finish in the four races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 523) that won last year at MIS and finished fourth at Auto Club in February.

12. Clint Bowyer: Scored first top 10s in eight starts in last year's races; Eighth-place finish last August is best-to-date; 16.0 average finish in the four races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 306) in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400.

13. Tony Stewart: Finished seventh and 17th, respectively, in first two track starts with Stewart-Haas; Scored one win and 13 top 10s in previous 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Fourth-best average finish (10.2) in the four races with the COT; Has only led a combined five laps in last nine starts.

14. Ryan Newman: Finished 23rd and 15th,respectively, in first two track starts with Stewart-Haas; Recorded two wins and four top 10s in 15 starts with Penske Racing.

15. Martin Truex Jr: Only top 10s in eight starts is a pair of runner-up finishes in 2007; Finished 36th in this event last year; Will make ninth start - first with Michael Waltrip Racing - this weekend.

16. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Won 2008 June race in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Has posted a 10.2 average finish in four starts with HMS; Coming off seventh top 10 in 21 starts with a third-place run last August; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 599) that finished eighth at Texas and 22ns at Charlotte this season.

17. Joey Logano: 16.0 average finish in two starts; Coming off best finish in seventh; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 272) that finished 13th at Charlotte last month.

18. Jamie McMurray: Finished 10th in both races in 2008; Has four top 10s in 14 starts; Will make track debut in a Chevrolet.

19. David Reutimann: Coming off first top 10 (ninth) in six starts; Finished 19th in this event last year; 19.2 average finish in the four races with the COT.

20. Juan Pablo Montoya: Coming off best finish of sixth in this event last year; Only top-10 finish in six starts; 26.2 average finish; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 1015) in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400.

21. Paul Menard: Yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts; 23.7 average finish with a best result of 11th coming in this event in 2008; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 683) that finished eighth in the Coca-Cola 600.

22. AJ Allmendinger: 27.8 average finish in five starts; Will race the same car (chassis No. 294) that finished 14th at Charlotte.

23. Kasey Kahne: Won this event in 2006 from the pole after leading just 19 laps; Has scored five top-five finishes in 12 starts; 16.3 average finish; Making track debut in a Ford.

24. Brad Keselowski: Made first track start in second event last year; Finished 24th after starting 12th; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 706) that finished seventh in the All-Star Race.

25. David Ragan: Posted two top-10 finishes in 2008, with a best third in the second event; 15.8 average finish in six starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 640) that finished 15th at Texas.

26. Scott Speed: Ran both races in 2009 with a best finish of 34th coming in the second event; 35.5 average finish with two starts.

27. Sam Hornish Jr.: Coming off his best track finish in four starts with a fifth-place finish in the second event last year; 19.5 average finish.

28. Regan Smith: Made only two Cup starts at track in 2008 with an average finish of 30.5.

29. Elliott Sadler: Five top-10 finishes in 22 starts, including two ninth-place finishes in both 2008 races; 22.2 average finish, with only top-five finish coming with a Ford in this event in 2004; Bringing same car (Chassis No. 283) that finished 21st at Darlington.

30. Marcos Ambrose: 36.3 average finish in three starts.

Current favorites haven't fared well at Michigan
By Steve Makinen

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its summer tour with the first of two stops over the next eight weeks at Michigan International Speedway. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 is slated for Sunday and a quick check of the odds board finds all of the usual top dogs expected to win. Jimmie Johnson is the official favorite at 7-2, with Kyle Busch next at 5-1, and both Jeff Gordon & Denny Hamlin the only other drivers in single digits at 8-1. Strangely, none of that quartet has won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon did so in 2001. In fact, he is the only one of them who has a win at this facility. Perhaps oddsmakers, or more importantly bettors, should take a closer look at drivers like Carl Edwards (20-1) Kurt Busch (10-1), or Matt Kenseth (15-1), more recent winners at MIS. Mark Martin (20-1), the defending champion of this race, could also be worth a shot.

The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.

When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.

So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.

Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.

The events at Michigan have historically been run very clean and fast, as the 400-mile jaunt around this track typically ends up short of three hours. Sometimes, the winner at Michigan is determined through pit stop and strategy execution, while at other times it is pure horsepower that gets it done. Most often it simply depends upon the timing of the cautions in the race, and the critical late lap pit decisions made. In looking at past winners, you’ll find nine different winners in the last eight events, including four for team Roush. In fact, extending that look back to 14 races, Roush still owns six of the trips to Victory Lane.

Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. Qualifying for this race is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Friday. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, & Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all the high speed excitement…

Heluva Good! 400 at Michigan: NASCAR Betting Preview
By Greg Engle

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan for Sunday’s Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 at the two-mile oval, Michigan International Speedway. Typically races at Michigan consist of long green flag runs that call for smart fuel management strategy. The track has also been kind to Fords over the years and this could be the weekend the Blue Oval crew breaks through for their first win of the season.

Favorites

Mark Martin (+2000)

Martin heads to Michigan as the defending winner of this event. Over his long career Martin has a total of five wins, 17 Top 5s and 29 Top-10 finishes. Martin has the experience and knows how to master the fuel strategy normally needed to win here and he should be the one to beat Sunday.

Kurt Busch (+1200)

Busch has had a great season so far with two victories. He also has two wins at MIS along with two Top 5s and seven Top-10 finishes. Busch is quick to say he loves racing at Michigan and will be on the wheel and near the front Sunday.

Carl Edwards (+2000)

Edwards will be the first to admit his season has been filled with struggles. But when it comes to tracks, Michigan is one of his favorites. He has two wins here, the last in 2008, along with seven Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes. Edwards and his Roush-Fenway Racing team have been working hard to turn their program around and those efforts could pay off Sunday.

Who to watch

Jimmie Johnson (+350)

This is one of the few tracks on the NASCAR circuit that four time champion Jimmie Johnson has not won at. At Michigan, Johnson has two Top 5s and six Top 10s. Johnson won the charity race held at Eldora Speedway in Ohio Wednesday night, beating a slew of Sprint Cup, NHRA and IndyCar drivers on a half-mile dirt oval. It marked Johnson’s first win on dirt and Sunday could mark his first win at Michigan.

Denny Hamlin (+700)

Like Johnson, Hamlin has never won at Michigan. He has two Top 5s and four Top-10 finishes. While Johnson is considered a threat everywhere he goes, his season has been lukewarm. Hamlin is on fire and having a career-best year, he could be a threat Sunday.

Jeff Gordon (+700)

Gordon has come close to winning several times this season but has yet to seal the deal. Gordon heads to Michigan wanting to end that winless streak and has two wins, 17 Top 5s, 22 Top-10 finishes and five poles here. He finished second in both races at MIS last season and can’t be dismissed Sunday.

Head to head

Kasey Kahne vs. Clint Bowyer

Kahne has a win at Michigan along with five Top 5s, five Top 10s and one pole. Bowyer has just two Top 10s. And while MIS is kind to Ford’s, the lame duck Kahne seems to have lost his edge while Bowyer has had some inspired performances lately. Look for Bowyer to win out in this matchup.

Kevin Harvick vs. Greg Biffle

This should be the most interesting matchup of the week. Harvick has never won at Michigan and has two Top 5s and six Top-10 finishes here. Biffle has won twice at MIS, along with an impressive six Top 5s and eight Top 10s. Harvick still leads the points and has stepped up his performance lately in order to maintain that lead. Biffle, on the other hand, has struggled. Look for Harvick to finish ahead of Biffle.

Tony Stewart vs. Jeff Burton

Stewart has won here but that was back in 2000, he also has nine Top 5s and 14 Top 10s. Burton is winless here but has two poles along with four Top 5s and eight Top 10s. Burton has shown he can find the speed at Michigan while Stewart is still struggling to find the speed for at least a decent finish. Burton finished 18th here in the fall, Stewart 17th. It will be a close matchup but look for Stewart’s struggles to continue and Burton to finish in front of him Sunday.