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Irwin Tools Night Race Betting News and Notes

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Odds & Ends - Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway Data

Race #: 24 of 36 (8-27-11)
Track Size: .533 miles
Race Length: 500 laps/266.5 miles
Banking/Corners: 26 to 30 degrees
Banking/Straights: 4 to 9 degrees

Driver Rating at Bristol

Kyle Busch 108.1
Greg Biffle 99.4
Jeff Gordon 97.6
Matt Kenseth 97.5
Kurt Busch 96.8
Tony Stewart 92.8
Kevin Harvick 91.8
Carl Edwards 91.7
Jimmie Johnson 91.1
Ryan Newman 88.7

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2011 races (13 total) at Bristol.

Qualifying/Race Data

2010 pole winner: Jimmie Johnson, 123.475 mph, 15.540 seconds
2010 race winner: Kyle Busch, 99.071 mph, 8-21-10)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (128.709 mph, 14.908 seconds, 3-21-03)
Track race record: Charlie Glotzbach (101.074 mph, 7-11-71)

 
Posted : August 23, 2011 9:30 am
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Driver Highlights - Bristol

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Pure Michigan Ford)

Six top fives, 11 top 10s
Average finish of 10.6
Average Running Position of 11.5, third-best
Driver Rating of 99.4, second-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.460 mph, second-fastest
4,945 Laps in the Top 15 (75.9%), third-most
311 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)

Five wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.7
Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 96.8, fifth-best
549 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.416 mph, third-fastest
4,712 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), fourth-most
321 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)

Five wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
Average finish of 8.7
Average Running Position of 11.7, fourth-best
Series-best Driver Rating of 108.1
Series-high 543 Fastest Laps Run
491 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.563 mph
4,445 Laps in the Top 15 (68.2%), fifth-most
272 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)

One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 11.5
Average Running Position of 14.4, 11th-best
Driver Rating of 87.9, 12th-best
Series-high 676 Green Flag Passes
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.243 mph, 10th-fastest
3,842 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0%), 10th-most
268 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)

Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.5
Average Running Position of 13.6, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 91.7, eighth-best
267 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
481 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.269 mph, eighth-fastest
4,378 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)

Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
Average finish of 11.7
Series-best Average Running Position of 9.9
Driver Rating of 97.6, third-best
201 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
483 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.379 mph, fourth-fastest
Series-high 5,277 Laps in the Top 15 (81.0%)
314 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)

Three top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 16.3
Driver Rating of 87.4, 13th-best
264 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
522 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.230 mph, 11th-fastest

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy John's Chevrolet)

One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 12.0
Average Running Position of 13.4, sixth-best
Driver Rating of 91.8, seventh-best
232 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
603 Green Flag Passes, third-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.373 mph, fifth-fastest
3,975 Laps in the Top 15 (61.0%), ninth-most
227 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

One win, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 15.4
Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
Driver Rating of 91.1, ninth-best
355 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
4,380 Laps in the Top 15 (67.3%), sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Kroger Ford)

Two wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.2
Average Running Position of 11.2, second-best
Driver Rating of 97.5, fourth-best
260 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
481 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.357 mph, sixth-fastest
5,218 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), second-most
Series-high 351 Quality Passes

Mark Martin (No. 5 Carquest/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)

Two wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; nine poles
Average finish of 13.1
Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
Driver Rating of 88.0, 11th-best
178 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.250 mph, ninth-fastest

Ryan Newman (No. 39 WIX Filters Chevrolet)

One top five, 11 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 17.2
Average Running Position of 14.8, 13th-best
Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
519 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
4,364 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), eighth-most
295 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 17.0
Average Running Position of 14.1, ninth-best
Driver Rating of 92.8, sixth-best
279 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 114.309 mph, seventh-fastest
3,826 Laps in the Top 15 (58.7%), 11th-most
255 Quality Passes, ninth-most

 
Posted : August 23, 2011 9:31 am
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Irwin Tools Night Race Preview
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas native Kyle Busch won at Michigan last week for the first time ever, he’s leading the Sprint Cup series in points and he’s the 3/1 co-favorite to win the Championship with 13 races to go. He’s the first driver to clinch a spot in the Chase with three races to go, but once the Chase starts, it’s anyone’s guess how will he do.

Busch was in a similar situation in 2008 when he won eight of the first 22 races and went into the Chase as the points leader, but proceeded to lay a big egg. In 2009, he didn’t even make the chase and then last season, while making it, never became a factor.

It’s hard to believe that this year will be any different for Busch. As much as I’d love to see a Vegas kid win another championship like his brother did, I don’t get the confidence from his tone and body language that says he’ll win. It’s almost like John Elway before he had to face the 49ers in the Super Bowl after having lost two already or Jim Kelly in three successive Super Bowls after losing the close one to the Giants.

There’s a vibe they all gave off and it wasn’t a confident winning one. Busch has to talk as much now about his past failures as he does about what it will take to win which has to be unnerving and rattle around his conscience on a regular basis.

Even when asked about being one of the drivers to watch in the Chase, Busch doesn't exude much confidence.

“No. There’s way too much that can happen, way too many laps to run, way too many miles to run," Busch said earlier this week. "Certainly, we’ve built ourselves into championship contenders this year and that’s where our strong suit has been up to this point, it’s just being able to be consistent or at least try to be consistent. Bristol obviously being one of the best tracks for me, then going to Atlanta — not so great for me. I have won there. See if we can’t get a good run and win the Sprint Summer Showdown, win money for a fan and my foundation. Going to Richmond — one of my favorites as well. We’d love nothing more than to carry on our strong runs through the final 10 weeks. It’s just a matter of being consistent.”

Meanwhile, the co-favorite with Busch to win it all is defending five-time champion Jimmie Johnson who knows nothing about being defeated. He’s only had one win on the season, his least amount at this juncture of any of his winning seasons, but he’s still sitting second in points. If Kyle Busch is John Elway before the Super Bowl, Jimmie Johnson is the cool and collective Joe Montana, undefeated in the big one, undeterred by anything except dominating when it counts.

No one has more Chase wins than Johnson and no one has been more consistent. For Busch to be able to win, he’s going to have to take his game to another level that he may not be capable of and hope that Johnson has an off year. The resiliency of Johnson will be a tough opponent for all.

This week at Bristol Motor Speedway, we can expect Kyle Busch to be brimming with confidence as he has won four of the last five races there. In 13 Bristol races, Busch has won five times tying his brother and Jeff Gordon for the most among active drivers. In Kurt Busch’s case, he’s had 21 cracks at it while Gordon has made 37 starts. He is the overwhelming 5/2 favorite to win and will be using the same chassis this week that he won with in the first Bristol race.

Chance are, based on the way the half-mile track runs now, that Busch will once again be contending for the win. This isn’t the old Bristol we all grew to love so much with the beating and banging of fenders and tempers flaring, this is more of a country drive with multiple grooves making it run similar to the one-mile track of Dover. The drivers all seem to love it, but the fans have quickly turned on it making it no longer the most sought after NASCAR ticket.

Because the probability is high that Busch will win again, it puts more of emphasis on driver matchups with a small part of the bankroll reserved for odds to win.

The top contender to knock Busch off this week is two-time winner Carl Edwards who has a 12.5 average finish in 14 starts. In the first Bristol race this season, Edwards was runner-up to Busch. Edwards currently sits fourth in points and will use these next three races to go all out for wins and seed himself higher when the Chase starts.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been sensational at Bristol over his career that includes a win in 2004. In 23 starts he has an average finish of 11.5 with seven top-five finishes. He's also bringing a pretty good car this week too. The chassis finished runner-up at Kansas in June. Of all the tracks that Junior could break his 116 race winless streak, Bristol would seem the most fitting.

Johnson won for the first time ever at Bristol last season and then finished third in the first race this season. He'll be using that exact same car this week and should find himself near the front for most of the race.

I'm going to take a shot with Edwards to beat Kyle this week and I also think Matt Kenseth has some value too. Dover is a comparable track to Bristol now becau8se of the resurfacing and Kenseth was the winner of that race. Kesnseth is also a two-time winner of the Bristol night race.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #99 Carl Edwards (8/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (5/2)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (15/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (30/1)

 
Posted : August 24, 2011 9:56 pm
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Busch favored to win again under the lights
By: Brian Graham

The NASCAR circuit moves to the World’s Fastest Half-Mile at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday night. This concrete oval track is 0.533 miles long with four turns all between 24 and 30 degrees since its 2007 resurfacing. The two straights have inclines of six degrees and 10 degrees.

Drivers to Watch

Matt Kenseth (15/1) - He won the night races at Bristol two years in a row in 2005 and 2006, and has finished top-10 in 15 of his past 19 races at this track. He also has 14 career top-5 finishes on short tracks. At 15-to-1, Kenseth poses the best odds of any driver on Saturday night.

Brad Keselowski (25/1) - He has been on fire lately, finishing first, second and third in his past three races as part of six top-10s in his past eight starts. His three career races at Bristol haven’t been great (16.7 average finish), but he’s too hot right now not to drop a unit on the lofty 25-to-1 odds he’s receiving.

Kyle Busch (5/2) – The current points leader and last week’s winner is the clear favorite on Saturday, with four victories in his past five Bristol races, including the last two night races. With eight career short-track wins and 24 top-5 finishes, Busch would have to be the choice for bettors that only want to wager on one driver.

Jimmie Johnson (5/1) – He is always a threat to take the checkered flag, especially on short tracks where Johnson has 10 career wins and 23 top-5s. He also has top-3 finishes in three of his past four starts in Bristol including a win last year. And as is customary with the reigning points champ, Johnson is heating up in the late summer, placing 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in a six-race span. He could certainly break his 15-race win drought Saturday night.

Kurt Busch (10/1) - He has five career victories in Bristol, but his last win came back in 2006. In 10 Bristol races since, he’s only tallied one top-5 finish. With accidents in back-to-back races this year, his odds are not long enough at 10-to-1 to take a chance on.

Carl Edwards (8/1) - He won back-to-back August night races at Bristol in 2007 and 2008, and was the runner-up at the Jeff Byrd 500 on this track in March. But he has been in a funk lately, finishing 12th place or worse in four of his past five races. With just two wins in 42 career short-track races, Edwards does not present good value at 8-to-1.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (30/1) - If you’re one for longshots, Earnhardt Jr. is an intriguing play at 30-to-1 odds. He won this race in 2004 and has top-7 finishes in five of his past 10 races at this track. With four career short-track victories, it’s not inconceivable to picture Earnhardt Jr. breaking his winner’s circle drought on Saturday night.

 
Posted : August 24, 2011 10:43 pm
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Irwin Tools Night Race Betting Preview
By: Adam Markowitz

Bristol Motor Speedway is always known for its twists and turns over the course of its races. On Saturday, August 27, 43 drivers will circle around this speedway 500 times to determine the winner of the 2011 Irwin Tools Night Race.

This race from Bristol, TN is the second of the year run at this track, with the first, the Jeff Byrd 500 presented by Food City, being run on March 20.

The green flag will drop Saturday at 4:43 p.m. (PT), and there will be live television coverage on ABC.

The winner of the Jeff Byrd 500 was Kyle Busch, who has dominated this track over the years. Not only did Busch win the first race of the year at Bristol, but he also has the last two Irwin Tools Night Races under his belt as well. In fact, Busch has five wins, seven Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s in 13 races here at Bristol, and he has eight career wins on short tracks in 39 tries.

The only question with the Sprint Cup points leader coming into race No. 24 of the year if whether his off the track problems will boil over into Saturday night. Busch had his license suspended for driving 128 mph in a 45 mph zone this week, and you can be sure that he will want to get back on the track this weekend.

Busch is the hefty +300 favorite on the Don Best odds screen for this race.

There are only two others drivers that are better than 10-to-1 in this race, Jimmie Johnson (+600) and Carl Edwards (+800).

Edwards has a great history on this track, winning the night race at Bristol in 2007 and 2008 before yielding that title to Busch. However, he has really fallen off over the course of the last few months, dropping 39 points back of the lead in the Sprint Cup standings and down to fourth place.

Johnson is looking like he is finally starting to make his charge up the leaderboard in search of his sixth straight Sprint Cup Championship. The No. 48 Chevy hasn't been to Victory Lane since the Aaron's 499 in April, but Johnson has finished in the Top 5 four times in the last six races and seventh or better in seven of his last 11 races.

The long shot that is picking up steam with each passing race this year as Brad Keselowski, who is +2000 on the NASCAR betting odds on Saturday night.

Keselowski is probably a lock for the Chase for the Sprint Cup this year with his two wins, but he can sneak into the Top 10 still with a few more fine showings before the Chase begins. "Jet Ski" has finished in the Top 3 in his last three races, and he is qualifying well to boot.

Keselowski hasn't started further back than 13th in his last six runs.

The last two Chase for the Sprint Cup qualifiers at the moment, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart are in dire need of at least one win in these last few races to ensure their position in NASCAR's version of the playoffs. They are lined at +3000 and +1500 respectively to take the checkered flag on Saturday.

Weekend weather should be nice in the Volunteer State. Saturday night's forecast calls for low temperatures in the low-60s with virtually no chance for rain.

 
Posted : August 25, 2011 9:46 pm
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Driver Handicaps: Bristol
By: Jeff Wackerlin

To help you make your fantasy racing picks for the IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 500-lap event.

Who's HOT at Bristol
• Kyle Busch has five wins and has led 1,336 laps in the nine races with the COT.
• Jimmie Johnson has one win and has led 632 with the COT.
• Carl Edwards has the second-best average finish (9.0) with the COT.
• Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch each have scored five wins.
• Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth each have finished in the top 10 in the last four races.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts.

Keep an Eye on at Bristol
• Bristol is Dale Earnhardt Jr's best track on the circuit based on his 11.5 average finish.
• Brad Keselowski has a 3.8 average finish in the last four races of the season.
• Clint Bowyer finished fourth in this event last year for his fifth top 10 at Bristol.
• Tony Stewart is third in laps led (526) with the COT at Bristol.
• Kevin Harvick is coming off his 12th top 10 at Bristol.
• Mark Martin leads all active full-time drivers with 23 top 10s at Bristol.
• Kasey Kahne has finished in the top 10 in his last two Bristol starts.
• David Reutimann finished second in this event last year.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Jimmie Johnson
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Craig Moore: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Steve Blevins: Kurt Busch
John Singler: Matt Kenseth
Ricky Hamber: Jeff Gordon

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Bristol unless noted)

1. Kyle Busch: Leads all drivers in laps led (1,336) and wins (5) in the nine races with the COT; Coming off second consecutive win; 4.6 average finish in seven starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Coming off fourth top 10 in the last five races; Won the 2010 spring race; Has combined to lead 618 laps in last five starts; 15.3 average finish in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 592) that he led 164 laps en route to a third-place finish in the spring at Bristol.

3. Kevin Harvick:
Seventh-best average finish (13.9) in the nine races with the COT; Coming off 12th top 10 (sixth) in 21 starts; Winner of the 2005 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 346) that he finished 19th with in the All-Star Race in May at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

4. Carl Edwards: Second-best average finish (9.0) in the nine races with the COT; Won this event in 2007 and 2008; Finished second from the pole in the spring for sixth top 10 in 12 starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 739) that he finished fifth with at Michigan International Speedway in June.

5. Matt Kenseth: Coming off 15th top 10, and fourth consecutive, in 23 starts; Winner of this event in 2005 and 2006; 10th-best average finish (14.6) in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 751) that he finish eighth with at Pocono Raceway in June.

6. Jeff Gordon: Has finished outside the top 10 in last four starts; Last of five wins came in this event in 2002; Sixth-best average finish (11.6) in the nine races with the COT; Leads all drivers with 2,440 laps led, but has only combined to lead five in last eight starts.

7. Ryan Newman: 9.0 average finish in five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Coming off 11th top 10 in 19 starts; Only top five finish (second) came in the 2004 summer race with Penske Racing.

8. Kurt Busch: Coming off 13th top 10 in 21 starts; Seventh-place finish in the spring was fourth consecutive top 10; Six top 10s, including a win, in 11 starts with Penske Racing; Four other wins came with Roush Racing; Fifth-best average finish (11.0) in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 738) that he last finished second with from the pole at Pocono Raceway in June.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Best track on the circuit based on 11.5 average finish; Third-best average finish (9.9) in the nine races with the COT; 11.0 average finish in seven starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Scored one win and nine top 10s with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. in previous 16 starts.

10. Tony Stewart: 19.6 average finish in five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Only top 10 with SHR came in the 2010 spring race in second; Scored seven top 10s in 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Winner of the 2001 summer race; Third in laps led with the COT (526), but has only combined to lead two laps in last six starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 583) that he last finished eight with at Kansas Speedway.

11. Clint Bowyer: Finished fourth in this event last year for fifth top 10 in 11 starts; Engine failures in the the last two spring events have raised his finishing average to 14.9 in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 340) that he last finished sixth with at Richmond International Raceway in May.

12. Brad Keselowski: 16.7 average finish in three starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 736) that he finished 23rd with at Pocono Raceway in June.

13. Greg Biffle: Coming off fourth consecutive top 10; Eighth-place finish was 11th top 10 in 17 starts; Led 76 laps in this event in 2009; Fourth-best average finish (10.3) in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 727) that he last finished 20th with at Phoenix International Raceway.

14. Denny Hamlin: 33.5 average finish in last two starts; Last of five top 10s (fifth) came in the 2009 summer race after starting at the back of the field and going a lap down; 17.7 average finish in the nine races with the COT.

15. AJ Allmendinger: Has yet to finish inside the top 15 in eight starts; 30.1 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 710) that he finished 31st with at Bristol in the spring.

16. Mark Martin: Won both poles and posted an average finish of 4.0 in first two starts with Hendrick Motorsports in 2009; Finished 35th, 23rd and 12th, respectively, in last three starts; Previous 21 top 10s came with Roush Racing; Last of two victories came in 1998.

17. Kasey Kahne: Finished ninth in first track start with Team Red Bull in the spring; Finish was sixth top 10, and second consecutive, in 15 starts; Led 305 laps en route to a runner-up finish in 2007 summer race; 16.6 average finish in the nine races with the COT.

18. Paul Menard: Coming off first top-15 finish in eight starts; Fifth-place finish came in first track starts with Richard Childress Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 356) that he last finished 24th with at Kentucky Speedway.

19. Joey Logano: Has yet to finish inside the top 15 in five starts; Won the pole for the 2010 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 297) that he last finished 27th at Dover International Speedway in May.

20. David Ragan:
Only top 10 in eight starts came in this event in 2008; 24.0 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 744) that he finished 20th with at Michigan International Speedway in June.

 
Posted : August 25, 2011 9:48 pm
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NASCAR Odds and Picks: Bristol Motor Speedway
By Greg Engle

Trying to pick a favorite to win a NASCAR Sprint Cup series race each week can be a daunting task. We’ve got a field of 43 drivers and 36 races in a season, and factors like stats, past history, current performance to handicap.

Looking at this week’s stop at Bristol Motor Speedway, billed as the world’s fastest half-mile, with its slam bang history of unpredictability, you’d think it’d be especially tough to pick the top choice.

That’s not the case.

Kyle Busch is a no-brainer fave thanks to his five straight NASCAR National Series wins at Bristol. Overall he has 11 wins at Bristol, five of those in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. He also has highest driver rating, 108.1.

By the way he’s the only driver with a driver rating over 100, is one of two drivers with an average finish in the top 10 over the last 13 races and is coming off his first ever Sprint Cup series win at Michigan last week.

Busch is not only a favorite; he is the favorite to win at Bristol Saturday night.

“I’m not exactly sure what makes me so good at Bristol. I’ve just had a lot of success there,” Busch told reporters. “When they changed the track to this current surface, I just really took to it right away. I really liked it and I’ve been fast there.”

Jumping off the Busch bandwagon though, there are 42 other drivers hoping to knock Kyle from his perch as the king of the mountain.
Kyle’s older brother Kurt is tied for the most Sprint Cup wins, five, at Bristol and has finished in top 10 the last four races held here.

Keep in mind that the last five races at Bristol have had a winning margin of less than a second, so a win for Kyle isn’t a done deal and older brother Kurt is ready to break the win tie with his brother and add another victory to his total.

He may have only one win here, but Jimmie Johnson could be ready to spoil the Busch brothers’ party Saturday night. Johnson broke up Kyle Busch’s win streak in March last year. He also won the pole here last August and has finished in the top five in three of the last five races here.

Wild Card Watch: After race No. 26 at Richmond, the top-10 drivers are locked into the 12-driver Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup field. Spots 11 and 12 – the Wild Cards – go to drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20.

Only three races remain for Wild Card opportunities. The current Wild Card king was 23rd in points just a month ago. But heading to Bristol Brad Keselowski has rocketed up to 12 in the points and has two wins. He could continue to surprise this weekend has he continues to transform from just another driver in the pack to a legitimate contender.

This week’s prime time matchup pits Roush-Fenway Racing teammates Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth. Edwards went from a favorite last week to the garage area at Michigan with mechanical difficulties.

Edwards desperately wants a win to help him climb back to the top of the standings. Both he and Kenseth have nearly identical stats at Bristol; two wins each, average finishes of 12th and driver ratings of 91. While this will be a close matchup the focus and determination to rebound should power Edwards ahead of Kenseth.

Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick both have a single win at Bristol. Both also need a win to keep them contending in the Chase. Stewart seems to be a man on a mission lately while Harvick appears to have lost his early season mojo; look for Stewart to finish ahead of Harvick Saturday.

Bottom Line: The race winner has started from the pole 22 times at Bristol the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards, in the night race of 2008. Eighty of 101 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 52 from the first four spots. The deepest in the field that a race winner has started is 38th, by Elliott Sadler in 2001.

Favorites:

Kyle Busch (+250)
Kurt Busch(+1000)
Jimmie Johnson (+500)

 
Posted : August 26, 2011 8:51 pm
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NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings

This Week's Race: IRWIN Tools Night Race from Bristol Motor Speedway

Practice Notes at Bristol

Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Bristol 1*
1 Carl Edwards 8/1 1st 1st 2nd 2nd
Notes: Two-time winner with 12.5 average finish in 14 starts; using fifth-place Michigan car.

2 Kyle Busch 5/2 20th 10th 23rd 1st
Notes: Five-time winner, including last four of five; using winning chassis from March race.

3 Matt Kenseth 15/1 3rd 31st 3rd 4th
Notes: Two-time winner with 10.8 average in last 20 starts; using eighth-place Pocono chassis.

4 Jimmie Johnson 5/1 26th 9th 13th 3rd
Notes: 2010 winner with four top-10 finishes in last five starts; using same Bristol car from March.

5 Mark Martin 30/1 2nd 19th 5th 12th
Notes: Two-time winner with 13.1 average finish in 45 career starts; using runner-up Dover car.

6 Jeff Gordon 12/1 10th 23rd 4th 14th
Notes: Five-time winner, the last coming in 2002; leads active drivers with 2,440 laps led at Bristol.

7 Ryan Newman 30/1 7th 39th 1st 10th
Notes: Only one top-five finish, but 10th or better in five of last six starts; using fifth-place Darlington car.

8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1 6th 29th 22nd 11th
Notes: 2004 winner with 11.5 average finish in 22 starts; using runner-up Kansas chassis.

9 Brad Keselowski 25/1 4th 5th 8th 18th
Notes: Had the fastest 10-consecutive average lap times in Practice 1; using Pocono chassis.

10 Kurt Busch 10/1 13th 12th 10th 7th
Notes: Five-time winner, the last coming in 2006; using runner-up Pocono chassis this week.

Note: Since Bristol was repaved in 2007, it gave the track multiple grooves making the half-mile track run similar to the one-mile Dover layout.

* Results from the first Bristol race of season held March 20, 2011.

 
Posted : August 26, 2011 9:22 pm
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