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Irwin Tools Night Race Betting News and Notes

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(@blade)
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Bristol Motor Speedway Data

Season Race #: 24 of 36 (08-22-15)
Track Size: 0.533-miles
Banking/Turns 1 & 2: 24-28 degrees
Banking/Turns 3 & 4: 24-28 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 4-8 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 4-8 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 650 feet
Backstretch Length: 650 feet
Race Length: 500 laps / 266.5 miles

Top 10 Active Driver Ratings at Bristol

Matt Kenseth 104.6
Jeff Gordon 100.3
Kyle Busch 100.0
Kyle Larson 99.0
Brad Keselowski 93.3
Kurt Busch 92.6
Kevin Harvick 92.5
Jimmie Johnson 92.3
Greg Biffle 92.3
Carl Edwards 90.6

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2015 races (21 total) among active drivers at Bristol Motor Speedway

Qualifying/Race Data

2014 pole winner:
Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet
131.362 mph, 14.607 secs. 08-22-14

2014 race winner:
Joey Logano, Ford
92.965 mph, (2:52:00), 08-23-14

Track qualifying record:
Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet
131.362 mph, 14.607 secs. 08-22-14

Track race record:
Charlie Glotzbach, Chevrolet
101.074 mph, (2:38:12), 07-11-71

 
Posted : August 20, 2015 5:55 pm
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...

 
Posted : August 20, 2015 5:55 pm
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Posts: 318493
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Irwin Tools Night Race
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It’s time for some short track racing on the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway, and while I may not like the layout which changed in 2007 to allow multiple grooves on the track, it’s still short track racing at high speeds.

Something always seems to happen that excites, and it usually comes from drivers getting in post-race arguments. It would probably smarter to watch the final 20 laps and wait for the fireworks to occur, but you have to get that entire story of what’s happening in the race.

You have to feel the emotions, like the high of Kevin Harvick leading 184 laps in the spring Bristol race looking to win his third win of the season and first at Bristol since 2005. He was third at the time when Jimmie Johnson, Jeb Burton and David Ragan all spun out in front of him and relegated him to 38th-place finish.

There actually wasn’t any real fun scuffles after the race, but you thought there might be some words. Harvick’s the defending Sprint Cup champion. He had the swagger of winning twice already and finishing in the top-two in six of seven races prior. And just like that, Bristol took him out, failing to see that he was the master on the planet.

In the old days, before the progressive banking, the battle for bottom around the track was everything and it created drama. Now they just kind of go around in circles in two jam packed lanes. But I still like it. No, I love it. Night racing in Bristol, where the sponsor colors on all these cars look the brightest and best among all tracks.

Now, back to Harvick. I don’t want to say his swagger is gone, even though he hasn’t won since Phoenix, but I do think he’s feeling some pressure from Joe Gibbs Racing. He knows these guys are peaking at the right time now. And while Harvick is still running well, the other guys may have passed him with not only better cars, but also momentum.

The Gibbs cars couldn’t get the right package together to start the year, but they’ve got something working now while winning six of the past eight races. Kyle Busch was the entire talk of July with four wins in five races, then Matt Kenseth came along to win two of the past three. Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards haven’t been as strong over that span, but they’re getting close.

The think about Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth this week is they should be be considered co-favorites to win, which is a big statement because Harvick has been that ‘it’ guy favored in almost every race other than the roads and restrictor-plates.

Kenseth won the April race to give him four for his career. He’s won twice each on the old and new layouts. Equally tough and respected at the same time, which gives him kind of edge. He uses that nice thing well and doesn’t get too many cheap shots on him. In short confined areas like Bristol, you don’t want to give anyone and excuse to punt you because it’s so easy.

Kyle Busch has five wins, but none since 2011. The five wins tie him with Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch for the most among active drivers. Gordon, still searching for that first win on 2015, hasn’t won at Bristol since 2002.

I think we’re going to see all four Gibbs car run well, with Kyle Busch and Kenseth leading the parade again. Edwards has always been good at Bristol with three wins and Hamlin has a 2012 win.

Jimmie Johnson only has one Bristol win (2010), but has finished fourth or better in past two starts, including runner-up in April. Brad Keselowski has two wins, the last coming in 2012. He was runner-up last fall.

I’m not going to recommend a wager on Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at 100/1 odds, but I couldn’t fault anyone for taking a shot with him in match-ups or the daily fantasy stuff. He’s been sixth or better in his past three Bristol starts. It’s obvious he likes this track and he also has some confidence.

And even though Roush Fenway Racing has been garbage lately, they always been good at Bristol for whatever reason. Kurt Busch, Edwards and Kenseth continually rocked this place for the organization.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (6/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (10/1)

 
Posted : August 20, 2015 5:57 pm
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Drivers to Watch - Bristol
By Sportsbook.ag

The Sprint Cup Series heads back to Bristol, Tennessee for the famous night race this Saturday night as the season has just three races left before “The Chase.” In the first go-around when the racers were here this year at the Food City 500, Matt Kenseth earned both the pole and the victory as he outdueled runner-up Jimmie Johnson and third-place finisher Jeff Gordon.

The oval track runs 0.533 miles and has big turns that land between 26 and 30-degrees which has led to the track being dubbed “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile.” Not too many of the entrants this week have won multiple times at this event, but once again Kenseth’s name comes up as he is a three-time winner (2005, 2006, 2013) in the night race and is joined by Carl Edwards (2007, 2008) and Kyle Busch (2009, 2010) as recent dominators of this track.

Last year it was Joey Logano who took down the trophy in this race, finishing in 2:52:00, the fastest time since 2011, with an average speed of 92.965 MPH. Logano is a shoe-in for “The Chase” along with last week’s winner in Michigan, Matt Kenseth. Currently just on the outside looking in are names like Almirola, Kahne, Biffle and Larson as they attempt to move into contention.

Let’s take a look at who’s going this week and could come away with the checkered flag in Bristol.

Drivers to Watch

Matt Kenseth (6/1) – It is hard to ignore Kenseth in this race and that should be evident by how many times he is mentioned in the introduction above. The 43-year-old has won at this track four times in his career, adding another nine top fives and two poles. He owns a series-best average running position of 9.821 and driver rating of 104.6 while having the second-fastest green flag speed (115.981 MPH). This is not the only track he has dominated recently, though, with a win in two of the past three times out and seven consecutive finishes in the top-seven dating back to Kentucky. His chances are looking good at a run for the Sprint Cup win which he last did back in 2003 and this week should certainly help in that cause.

Jeff Gordon (18/1) – Gordon’s odds keep dropping as he goes week-to-week without getting a victory in his final season in the Sprint Cup Series. In all, he has won at this track five times over his long career, but has done it just once (2002) after the sun set. He still has shown up for some nice results recently in this particular event, getting two thirds and a seventh in the past four attempts and has 17 top-fives overall at Bristol. He also has the third-best driver rating (100.3) here and has spent 79.1% (8,234 laps) of his laps in the top-15 (2nd-best). Gordon has won three poles this year, but has failed to do much with them as he has zaeo wins and only three top-five finishes. He has four top-10s in his last seven races and is likely to win at some point before leaving the sport, and what better place than under the lights of Bristol Motor Speedway.

Kyle Larson (18/1) – Larson has visited Bristol just three times in his very young career and in that time has already put up two top-10s; including finishing with a seventh when he came to the track earlier this year. The 23-year-old did well in the night race last year as well with a 12th-place and will be looking to improve on his 99.0 driver rating (4th-best) at the venue. Larson has not exactly torn up the competition this year as he currently sits on the outside looking in at “The Chase,” but does have four straight starts with a finish of 13th or better and should be motivated to continue running well with the playoffs in sight.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (20/1) – Earnhardt Jr. has not had the success that some of the other top names in the sport have had at this track, owning one victory (2004) with the 13th-best driver rating (87.2), but getting solid odds like this on a racer who has two wins already this year and 25 in his career is a tough opportunity to pass up. He’s finished in the top-16 at four of his last five night races here and at one time was a force on this track, tallying a top-nine finish in 7-of-8 years between 2002 and 2009. Earnhardt Jr. has been in the top-11 at four of his last five races coming into this one and has been fairly consistent in 2015 with an average finish of 10.6 and 11 top-fives. Take Earnhardt Jr. based on his abilities, not necessarily his track history.

Aric Almirola (100/1) – Just like Larson, Almirola is aiming his sights at working into “The Chase” as he currently sits a mere 23 points behind Clint Boyer for the final spot while coming at a much discounted price. Despite finishing in the top-10 just once on the year, he has an average finish of 18.3 and has improved on his pole position in each of his last three times out. Almirola’s best finish in this event is 13th back in 2008 and it would not be a surprise if he matched or improved on that mark this week.

Odds to win Irwin Tools Night Race

Kevin Harvick 6/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Brad Keselowski 7/1
Joey Logano 7/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 10/1
Kurt Busch 10/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1
Jeff Gordon 18/1
Kyle Larson 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Clint Bowyer 50/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Tony Stewart 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Ryan Blaney 100/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1

 
Posted : August 20, 2015 5:58 pm
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