Kobalt 400 Betting News and Notes

Las Vegas Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

· Two top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.182, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.627, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.1, fifth-best
· 151 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.127, seventh-fastest
· 1861 Laps in the Top 15 (62.9), 10th-most
· 309 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· One win, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 11.700, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.970, series-best
· Driver Rating of 103.4, second-best
· 122 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.367, third-fastest
· 2125 Laps in the Top 15 (79.0), series-most
· 395 Quality Passes, second-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Four top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 12.636, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.001, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 94.4, seventh-best
· 124 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.194, sixth-fastest
· 2124 Laps in the Top 15 (71.8), fourth-most
· 377 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 12.182, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.378, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.7, sixth-best
· 161 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.036, eighth-fastest
· 2072 Laps in the Top 15 (70.0), fifth-most
· 431 Quality Passes, series-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Two top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 12.200, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.347, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 82.6, 13th-best
· 23 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.474, 12th-fastest
· 1307 Laps in the Top 15 (48.6), 13th-most
· 311 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 12.727, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.937, third-best
· Driver Rating of 98.8, third-best
· 168 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.197, fifth-fastest
· 2134 Laps in the Top 15 (72.1), third-most
· 368 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Four wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 11.636, series-best
· Average Running Position of 10.120, second-best
· Driver Rating of 111.9, series-best
· 377 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.671, series-fastest
· 2180 Laps in the Top 15 (73.7), second-most
· 382 Quality Passes, third-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Three top fives, six top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 14.818, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.516, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.3, 10th-best
· 114 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.739, ninth-fastest
· 1949 Laps in the Top 15 (65.9), seventh-most
· 333 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Three wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.273, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.837, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.6, fourth-best
· 203 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.428, second-fastest
· 2011 Laps in the Top 15 (68.0), sixth-most
· 345 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet)

· One top 10
· Average finish of 13.500, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.178, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.4, ninth-best
· 9 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.214, fourth-fastest
· 317 Laps in the Top 15 (59.4), 11th-most
· 76 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford)

· One top five, three top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.000, third-best
· Average Running Position of 12.959, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.7, eighth-best
· 57 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· 1241 Laps in the Top 15 (65.8), eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)

· Four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.818, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.115, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.8, 12th-best
· 47 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· 1927 Laps in the Top 15 (65.1), ninth-most

Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota)

· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 14.600, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.223, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.4, 11th-best
· 26 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· 1581 Laps in the Top 15 (58.8), 12th-most

Kobalt 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

For the 19th straight year, Las Vegas gets the greatest touring show stopping by in March once again as the annual NASCAR weekend is upon us. As a bonus this season, fans will get extra day of action as a NASCAR mandated test session will occur on Thursday. Then the regular schedule begins on Friday with practice and qualifying followed up by Saturday's practices and the Xfinity Series' Boyd Gaming 300 and then Sunday's Kobalt 400.

While the Las Vegas Motor Speedway has the nicest spread among all tracks in the series, complete with its ground-breaking Neon Garage that allows fans watch to watch crews work in the garages above above giant glass windows, the real attraction the Vegas date has that no where else does is legal sports betting.

After 18 years, the regular visitors for the Vegas race have become very adept at how to wager. There are still the occasional first-timers that come to the window not knowing how the betting works, but for the most part they now come in with all their bet numbers written down and fire away. It's been a long education process, but the fans are now seasoned bettors.

Sunday's race will be the highest handled Cup race of the season, almost four times the action the second most wagered race -- Daytona 500 -- takes in. With over 160,000 fans in town just for race action, the handle piles up quickly. And the sports books around town do a great job of providing bettors with a wide array of propositions.

Just about anything that appears in a NASCAR box-score can be wagered on. Lap leaders, cautions, car number to win, manufacturer to win, margin of victory -- anything you can think of that has an official result tied to it, you'll be able to find some action on it. Then of course there's the staple of NASCAR wagering which is simply picking the winner, which almost everyone in the stands seems to have a couple tickets on.

So let's start there. Who will win? Will it be a Chevy for the seventh time in LVMS history, or a Toyota for the third time? Ford has won a track-record eight times, the last coming two years ago by Brad Keselowski (Dodge won once as well with Sterling Marlin).

Last Sunday's Atlanta race won by Jimmie Johnson gave us some great insight to what might happen Sunday at LVMS just because it was the first race of 2016 using the new low downforce package. We saw two races last season with it at Kentucky and Darlington and Joe Gibbs Racing had a huge edge over everyone while winning both races. Team Penske wasn't far behind and the Chevrolet teams like Stewart Haas Racing and Hendrick Motorsports looked a little behind.

Kevin Harvick would lead the most laps (131) at Atlanta, Kurt Busch would lead the second most (62) and Johnson third most (52) -- Chevy looks good. Matt Kenseth would lead 52 laps and Martin Truex 47 for Toyota. It was quite the turnaround from what we saw last season. Chevrolet is no longer behind, and they may have even passed the Gibbs Toyota's with the package. Richard Childress Racing and Chip Ganassi also looked fast for Chevy during Atlanta practices.

Atlanta is a 1.5-mile track like Las Vegas, but it's much faster because of a higher banking. Tire wear shouldn't be as difficult this week, but the Vegas race is 100 miles shorter than Atlanta. There were surprisingly only three cautions at Atlanta which was a big drop-off from Kentucky' s 11 and Darlington's 18 last year. Drivers are obviously more comfortable with this package and know how to roll through the corners now at maximum speed without sliding as much as last year.

While the most important equation into picking the winner this week is the low downforce package, we also can't ignore history and a couple of drivers have some great history in Las Vegas beginning with Johnson and his LVMS-best four wins. Kenseth has three wins and a track best 11.3 average finish in 16 starts. Carl Edwards is a two-time winner with a 12.2 average.

Harvick won this race for the first time last season and has led more laps in the past 25 races (since 2014) on intermediate tracks than anyone else in the series -- by over 600 laps more than Joey Logano who has the second most.

Harvick's also got some great personal history in Las Vegas. Beyond his early days of racing in the Winston West series in Las Vegas, the Bakersfield native also got married to his wife Delana in 2001 during the Vegas race weekend, one week after making his Cup debut in Rockingham when taking over the RCR car the late Dale Earnhardt drove. A week later he would win his first Cup race in Atlanta in only his third career start.

There was enough evidence in Sunday's Atlanta race to believe Harvick should be the driver to beat this week, just like there was last year when he led 131 laps at Atlanta (runner-up) before winning a week later in Las Vegas.

Another big reason to support Harvick this week is that he is using a chassis that is absolutely awesome. It raced four times last season, which included a win in Las Vegas and two other runner-up finishes.

Let's go with 'Happy' Harvick on his anniversary to go back-to-back in Vegas. Three other drivers have gone back-to-back in LVMS as well (Jeff Burton, Kenseth Johnson).

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #41 Kurt Busch (14/1)

Las Vegas Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin takes a look at some notes and statistics for Sunday's Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Las Vegas

• Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards are the only drivers with multiple wins in the nine races on the current track configuration, with two each.
• Kevin Harvick won this event last year after leading 142 laps.
• Matt Kenseth has a 6.7 average finish in his three tracks starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, including a win in 2013.
• Brad Keselowski has posted a 3.7 average finish in his last three starts, including a win in 2014.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in all of the last five races.
• Joey Logano has posted an 8.7 average finish and combined to lead 91 laps in his three track starts with Team Penske.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Las Vegas

• Kyle Busch, the 2009 Las Vegas winner, has a 3.7 average finish in the three lower-downforce races, including a third-place run at Atlanta last weekend with the 2016 rules.
• Kurt Busch (6.7) and Denny Hamlin (7.3) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the three lower-downforce races dating back to last season.
• Martin Truex Jr. has posted an 8.8 average finish in the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season.
• Rookie Chase Elliott finished eighth last weekend in the first race of 2016 with the lower-downforce rules package. Also at Atlanta, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. posted his first top 10 at a 1.5-mile track since 2013.
• Paul Menard has the second-best average finish (8.0) in the last four races at Las Vegas.
• Brian Vickers is subbing for the injured Tony Stewart this weekend.
• Logano, Kasey Kahne, AJ Allmendinger and Greg Biffle each posted an average speed over 186 mph in best 10 consecutive lap averages in Thursday's first testing session. (Testing Speeds)

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Matt Kenseth
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Carl Edwards

Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races (Multiple Starts) at Las Vegas

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the only driver that's finished in the top 10 in each of the last five races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 7.8 average finish leads all drivers since LVMS was reconfigured. Earnhardt also has posted a 10.3 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished second last weekend with the 2016 package. Since 2015, Earnhardt's average finish in the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks is 12.2.

Paul Menard has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Menard's 12th-place run in this event last year was his best finish in the last 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Menard will debut a new car (chassis No. 526) in the Kobalt 400.

Martin Truex Jr. finished second in this race last year to give him an 8.0 average finish in two Las Vegas Motor Speedway starts with Furniture Row Racing. Truex has an 11.0 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished seventh last weekend with the 2016 package. Truex's Vegas finish in 2015 is one of eight top 10s in the last 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Matt Kenseth is a three-time Las Vegas winner, with his 2013 victory being the only one on the current track configuration. Kenseth has a 15.0 average finish in the three low-downforce races, and led 47 laps and finished 19th (penalty on pit road) last weekend with the 2016 package. Kenseth, who participated in the Vegas Goodyear Tire test in January, has an average finish of 12.6 in 11 starts in the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season.

Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Newman has a 19.0 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished 24th last weekend with the 2016 package.

Carl Edwards is a two-time Las Vegas Motor Speedway winner. He started 14th and finished 42nd last season in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing. Edwards owns a series-leading 3.3 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished fifth last weekend with the 2016 package. Also, Edwards has one win and an average finish of 10.5 in the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season.

Denny Hamlin finished fifth last season for his fifth top 10 in 10 starts at LVMS. He has a 7.3 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished 16th last weekend with the 2016 package. Hamlin's average finish is 14.8 (one win) in the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season.

Kasey Kahne snapped a streak of two consecutive top 10s (led 114 laps in 2013) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 17th-place finish last season. Kahne finished 23rd last weekend with the new rules package and has a 20.7 average finish in the three low-downforce races.

Brian Vickers will be back behind the wheel of the No. 14 Chevrolet for the injured Tony Stewart. Vickers finished 15th last season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with Michael Waltrip Racing and has an overall average finish there of 21.0 in nine starts.

Joey Logano has combined to lead 91 laps en route to top-10 finishes in his last two starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Logano has a 6.0 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished 12th last weekend with the 2016 package. In the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season, Logano has two wins and an 8.5 average finish.

Kyle Larson finished eighth last season in Vegas to give him an average finish of 13.5 in two starts. Larson finished 26th last weekend with the low-downforce package and has a 23.7 average finish in the three overall races dating back to last season.

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Las Vegas including a win in 2014. Keselowski has a 5.7 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished ninth last weekend with the 2016 package. He also leads all drivers that have competed in all 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season with a 6.8 average finish. Keselowski also participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Vegas in January.

Jimmie Johnson is a four-time winner at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with two of the victories coming on the current track configuration. Johnson has a 9.7 average finish in the three low-downforce races and won last weekend with the 2016 package. He leads all drivers with five wins in the 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season. Johnson also participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Vegas in January.

Jamie McMurray has a 16.9 average finish in the nine races since LVMS was reconfigured. He's recorded a 16.3 average finish in the three low-downforce races, including a 21st-place run with the 2016 package last weekend at Atlanta.

Kevin Harvick scored his first win at Las Vegas last season after leading 142 laps. Harvick has a 6.3 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished sixth (led 131 laps) last weekend with the 2016 package. Harvick's Vegas win is his only victory at a 1.5-mile track since last year, where he's posted an average finish of 7.9 and led a series-high 652 laps in that span.

Greg Biffle's last of six top 10s at Las Vegas Motor Speedway came in 2012. Biffle, who only has one top 10 in the last 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks, has a 15.7 average finish in the three low-downforce races and finished 13th last weekend with the 2016 package.

Clint Bowyer has finished outside the top 20 in his last three starts in Vegas. He's also failed to finish in the top 10 in the last 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Austin Dillon has a 19.0 average finish in three starts at Las Vegas. In the three races with the low-downforce package, Dillon has a 19.3 average finish and placed 11th last weekend with the 2016 package.

Kyle Busch's win in 2009 is one of two top-10 finishes in his last six starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Busch, who missed last year's Vegas race due to injury, has the second-best average finish (3.7) in the three low-downforce races and finished third last weekend with the 2016 package. Busch also has two wins and an average finish of 6.8 in eight starts in the last 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

AJ Allmendinger is coming off his first top 10 (sixth) in six starts at LVMS. His Vegas finish was the last of two top 10s in the last 12 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Trevor Bayne finished 28th in his first Las Vegas Motor Speedway start with Roush Fenway Racing. His lone top 10 in five overall starts came with Wood Brothers Racing in 2012.

Drivers to Watch - Las Vegas
By Sportsbook.ag

Jimmie Johnson will be going for his fifth Sprint Cup victory at the Kobalt 400 in Las Vegas on Sunday. This is going to be an exciting race, as this track has produced some fun events in the past. It runs 1.5 miles long and nobody has been better than Johnson here. His last victory was in 2010 and that gave him a record four wins at the Kobalt 400.

Last year, however, Kevin Harvick was the one that emerged victorious here. Matt Kenseth will also have a victory on his mind, though. Kenseth last won here in 2013 and that gave him three wins, so he can tie Johnson as the best driver ever to drive in Las Vegas on Sunday.

One thing worth noting is that the winner of this race has driven in a Ford manufactured car eight times in event history. With that information out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might be winning this race on Sunday:

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (+500) - Johnson is not the favorite to win this event, as he is considered second to Kevin Harvick. Harvick is listed at 4-to-1, but it is Johnson who will have the attention of all the other drivers. As mentioned earlier, Johnson has won this event four times in his career and he will certainly be hungry to win his fifth on Sunday. He also happens to be coming into this race in tremendous form, as he emerged victorious at the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 just a week ago. Johnson is somebody that is definitely worth putting a few units on this weekend.

Matt Kenseth (+600) - Kenseth is yet another guy with tremendous history in Las Vegas and he is likely going to be in the running to win this thing on Sunday. As mentioned earlier, Kenseth has won this event three times and he will be fueled by the opportunity to tie Johnson’s record of four wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Kenseth was about 30 seconds from winning the Daytona 500 earlier in the season, but he made a bad mistake that left him in 14th by the time the race ended. He is going to notch his first victory of the year soon and at 6-to-1, this is as good a spot as any to take him.

Carl Edwards (+850) - Edwards not only has good history at this track, but he also is off to a very impressive start to the Sprint Cup season this year. Edwards won this event back in 2011 and it was the second time he has won this race. Edwards has also finished in fifth place in each of the previous two races this season. He might have had a better shot to win the Daytona 500 if it weren’t for a few mistakes he made in the beginning of the race. Still, he finished strong and followed it up with a good performance in Atlanta. Edwards has been in solid form and he is a good guy to take with favorable odds.

Chase Elliot (+3000) - Elliot has been one of the main talking points of the Sprint Cup this season, as he is one of the more promising young drivers to ever hit the circuit. Elliot also happens to be coming off of his best performance in a Sprint Cup race, finishing in eighth at the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 a week ago. Elliot showed major improvement from his performance at the Daytona 500 and he is worth a unit or two at 30-to-1.

Las Vegas driver ratings - Gibbs cars fast again
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

Joe Gibbs Racing came up strong during Saturday's final practices at a windy Las Vegas Motor Speedway in preparation for Sunday's Kobalt 400. Two-time LVMS winner Carl Edwards led the early session with a lap at 191.564 mph and was second-fastest in the afternoon session behind teammate Matt Kenseth (189.460), who has three LVMS wins.

While JGR was impressive with single lap speeds, it was four-time LVMS winner Jimmie Johnson looking the strongest on the long runs with the fastest 10-consecutive lap average during the early session, as well as Thursday's test session. Right behind Johnson with the best run over longer stretches was Austin Dillon who had the best 10-consecutive lap average during the final practice.

Winds are expected to be in the 32 mph range Sunday which could have an effect on all the speeds, which we saw during the past three days of testing, practices and qualifying. Thursday and Friday were sunny and beautiful with no wind. Saturday was cool with 20 mph winds and Sunday will be similar.

There are still legitimately only 12 drivers who can win, but you could make a case for Dillon being inserted to that group. Dillon's 60-to-1 opening odds should be long gone by the time wagering re-opens after practice, but he's worth shopping around in driver match-ups and UNDER 14.5 finish position.

1 Johnson 4-time winner; best 10-consecutive lap average in Thursday test and practice 2
2 Harvick 2015 winner, using same chassis this week; led 1,730 laps on past 25 int. tracks
3 Kenseth 3-time winner; LVMS-best 11.4 average. Car liked windy conditions during final practice
4 Kurt Busch Career-best third in 2005, but no top-5s since; using brand new chassis this week
5 Edwards 2-time winner (2008, 2011), 12.2 average; using back-up car (faster than primary)
6 Keselowski 2014 winner, 7th or better in past 3 starts; 9th or better in past 12 races on 1.5s
7 Logano Career-best 4th in 2014, 12th-place avg; 14 top-5s in past 25 on int. tracks
8 Earnhardt 3-time runner-up -- 14.2 average; runner-up at Atlanta; strong on long runs
9 Hamlin Career-best 3rd in 2007, 5th last year; 3rd in both 2015 low downforce races last season
10 Kyle Busch 2009 winner from the pole; sluggish in practice, but he should be passing lots of cars to front