ROCKETMAN
#20 Tony Stewart vs #1 Martin Truex Jr.
Play On: 3* #20 Tony Stewart -125
For starters, I think Tony Stewart has the best shot of winning this race. Stewart has 2 wins, 10 Top 5 finishes and 11 Top 10 finishes in his 18 starts here in New Hampshire. Stewart has an average finish of 12.8 here in New Hampshire. Past 2 years, Tony Stewart's average finish at track type - FLAT TRACK is 7.0. In 5 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. We'll play Tony Stewart to finish ahead of Martin Truex Jr. for 3 units today!
Lenox Industrial Tools 301: Flat Tracks Break Skeins
Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: Brutal. We were looking really good for a double-win behind the road-course-savvy hands of Tony Stewart. Smoke had just jumped into second place at Sonoma with about 20 laps to go when a few knuckleheads behind him decided to make trouble, wrecking themselves and spinning out Stewart in the process. The No. 20 could only get back to 10th place, which wasn't enough to give him a win in our head-to-head match against Juan Pablo Montoya. And that bad luck puts us on our first three-race losing streak of the season. For the week, we lost 1.5 units; for the season, we've still profited 3.2 units on 23 units wagered, a return of 13.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 12 of 16 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost four units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 6.74 units on 63 units wagered, a return of 10.7%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Denny Hamlin (+700), 1/6th unit. This weekend, we head to the flat track at Loudon. Now, Hamlin gives you a shot at a win every time he comes to a flat track. He won at Martinsville this season, he was third at Phoenix (with a legit chance to win that race) and he led 380 laps at Richmond before blowing a tire from the lead. Hamlin also has a career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, in this race last season. Something does always seem to happen to him while he's leading races late, but still, he's a very solid bet to be in contention on Sunday.
Take Kyle Busch (+500), 1/6th unit. There's no sense betting against this particular winning streak any longer. The younger Busch has five wins in not quite half a season, and it was pretty much unthinkable that he'd dominate a road course like he did at Sonoma last weekend. He's just absolutely on fire. Plus in his career he has four finishes of 11th or better at Loudon in six tries, including a victory back in the spring of '06. Think of this as insurance against yet another dominant effort by the Shrub.
Take Clint Bowyer (+1500), 1/6th unit. Bowyer has been the most consistent driver on flat tracks this year. He finished 10th at Martinsville, second at Phoenix, and he was able to pick up the scraps from Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800) at Richmond, and take his second career win. Plus remember: his first career win came at this very track last September, when he dominated in the Car of Tomorrow, leading 222 laps, and momentarily taking the lead in the Chase for the Championship. This week, I'd scoop him up while his odds are this long.
Trading Paint: Lenox Industrial Tools 301 picks
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Sunday's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 in Loudon, N.H.
The rules are simple:
1. A panelist can't pick the same driver in back-to-back weeks.
2. Standings will be calculated each week based on the actual points earned by the drivers each panelist picks to win.
After 16 races, the standings are as follows, with their pick of last week's winner in parentheses:
1. Steve Kaminski (Juan Pablo Montoya) -- 2,443
2. Jeff Bleiler (Jeff Gordon) -- 2,181
3. Antoine Pitts (Jeff Gordon) -- 2,126
4. Mike Pryson (Jimmie Johnson) -- 2,117
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
I've been on vacation for the past week (enjoying some golf and visiting parts of golf courses I had no intention or desire to visit), so I've been somewhat out of contact with the racing world. I did tune in enough to see that Jeff Gordon came through with a solid third for me at Sonoma despite stinking it up early in the race. Thanks, Jeff. I needed that.
So now we head to New Hampshire. Why get off the hot Hendrick bus now?
• Winner -- Jimmie Johnson: He's had a very quiet season, much unlike that of last year. There's bound to be a week when things click, so let's make it this week.
• Sleeper -- Casey Mears: He's got some things to prove now that he and Hendrick will be parting ways after the season. Now's a good time to start.
• No chance -- Kyle Busch: Come on. Five wins this season already? No way he gets a sixth this week. No way.
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
Bleiler accused me of making disparaging remarks about him and his upbringing in last week's Trading Paint, and I just wanted to set the record straight.
Mr. Bleiler really is a nice guy, which obviously is a fine reflection on his childhood.
But if I could be so bold to share an observation regarding his weekly NASCAR Sprint Cup predictions: They stink. Just saying.
• Winner -- Jimmie Johnson. He has zero top-five finishes in the past eight races, but he showed at Phoenix he has figured out these one-mile tracks.
• Sleeper -- Casey Mears. Job security just may give him an added spark this weekend.
• No chance -- Kevin Harvick. His best finish in the past 11 races has been an eighth, and he has dropped out of the top 12.
Antoine Pitts -- Ann Arbor News
Coast-to-coast in less than a week. Hard to believe that with 20 races to go, we haven't even reached the halfway point yet. This one isn't as hard to believe: I'm out of last place ... for good!
• Winner -- Kyle Busch. A winner at this track two summers ago, NASCAR's five-time winner is hard to pass up.
• Sleeper -- Martin Treux Jr. Two top-five finishes at Loudon last year make him one to watch.
• No chance -- Joe Nemechek. Probably not his track after posting 29th- and 41st-place finishes there a year ago.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Now I know how Kurt Busch feels.
This was supposed to be a great NASCAR season, and here I can't even run down a handful of NASCAR wannabes in a little racing pick'em.
Not unlike Busch, I concede that I'm not going to make the chase this year. Kaminski is the man, but with the rules changes I have in mind for next year, watch out. Trading Paint rivals will be talking about Pryson's Rules of Tomorrow when they look at my rear bumper next season (no fat jokes, please).
This week, it's New Hampshire, birthplace of Franklin Pierce, 14th president of the United States. (See, you learn something every day).
If Mr. Pierce were here today, he'd surely agree with the following picks:
• Winner -- Jeff Burton. This guy never seems to make news, but he sure knows how to pick up points. Burton has been tough in New Hampshire with top-10 finishes in three of his last four races there, including a third-place finish last year. Take Lord Burton.
• Sleeper -- David Ragan. I've been driving his bandwagon the last few weeks, and I'm not jumping off now. Plus, he's 14th in the points, which is key (See: Franklin Pierce).
• No chance -- Me. But seriously, things could be rough for Brian Vickers. He's 15th in the points and in a position where he needs to make something happen pretty soon. He's never cracked the top 10 at this track. Not a good place to start that charge he needs to make.
mlive.com