Trading Paint: LifeLock.com 400 picks
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Saturday's LifeLock.com 400 in Chicago.
The rules are simple:
1. A panelist can't pick the same driver in back-to-back weeks.
2. Standings will be calculated each week based on the actual points earned by the drivers each panelist picks to win.
After 18 races, the standings are as follows, with their pick of last week's winner in parentheses:
1. Steve Kaminski (Kyle Busch) -- 2,771
2. Jeff Bleiler (Kyle Busch) -- 2,509
3. Mike Pryson (Kyle Busch) -- 2,434
4. Antoine Pitts (Dale Earnhardt Jr. ) -- 2,366
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Kaminski pulled another fast one on me last week by again copying my pick and keeping me at bay. His dirty strategy can only be likened to blocking on the track. And what do you when someone's blocking you? You hit the gas, send them flying and scoot on by. It starts now.
• Winner -- Jimmie Johnson. He wrecked last year at Chicagoland, but in his other five starts there, his worst finish is sixth. The man's due.
• Sleeper -- Tony Stewart. This was the place he got things going last year when he broke a 20-race winless streak. With all the news and excitement surrounding him, and a winless season to go with it, history could repeat itself.
• No chance -- Casey Mears. Sure, he won the pole last year and finished fifth. He's in play this year and needs to start piling up decent showings for prospective owners. I doubt it'll start this week.
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
A good friend of mine and loyal Trading Paint reader asked me last week what the winner gets at the end of the season, but that was something this panel never discussed when we created our weekly contest back in February.
But it's not too late. Let me think ... I got it! I think the three losers should all chip in and purchase the winner a new bicycle. You guys good with that?
• Winner -- Carl Edwards. He hasn't won a race in three months. There will be no stopping him Saturday night.
• Sleeper -- Matt Kenseth. He's hot, and he likes this track. His first win is coming.
• No chance -- Tony Stewart. He's the defending race winner, but he's a lame duck driver barely hanging onto 12th place.
Antoine Pitts -- The Ann Arbor News
Perhaps this week in Chicagoland a race will finish like it is supposed to (or at least finish under caution with my guy in front!)
• Winner -- Kyle Busch. I say this is the week he wins back-to-back Cup races for the first time this season.
• Sleeper -- Carl Edwards. The guy that really would have won last week at Daytona if not for all of that last-lap wrecking.
• No chance -- Tony Stewart. Even though he's the defending camp, it has to be a frosty weekend for him in the JGR garage.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Wow, another week, another LifeLock 400. This time, instead of Michigan, the traveling NASCAR road show is at Chicagoland. And coming off a big win, Kyle Busch (and me!) will be tough to beat. But, since the commissioner of the I Inhaled Too Much Paint Racing League says we can't pick the same guy twice, I'll go with ....
• Winner -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. He won the last LifeLock 400 in June at MIS, so that's to count for something, right?
• Sleeper -- Casey Mears. I was on this guy's bandwagon early (Actually, it wasn't much of a bandwagon. It was more like one idiot with a banjo). Mears is on a mission to show car owner Rick Hendrick and the sponsors that they made a mistake in not asking Mears back for 2009.
• No chance -- Tony Stewart. Stewart had a busy week and likely spent more time working on 2009 and his new deal than he did working on this week's race. Expect Mr. Stewart to be just a little distracted this weekend, and he'll come up short.
mlive.com
Tony Stewart still a top choice despite lame-duck status
Announcement that Tony Stewart will be leaving Joe Gibbs Racing for to become co-owner/driver for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009 has not impacted oddsmakers' belief that driver can still win.
The big news in NASCAR this week dealt with Tony Stewart's decision to leave Joe Gibbs Racing after the season to become co-owner/driver for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009.
Although the move instantly made Stewart a lame-duck driver for tonight's LifeLock.com 400 in Chicago, oddsmakers still give him a good chance to win.
Stewart, the defending LifeLock.com 400 champion, is listed at 8-1 odds, which are the same numbers given to Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne, according to Bodoglife.com.
Kyle Busch, who leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings, is the betting favorite at 5-1, followed by Carl Edwards at 6-1, Jimmie Johnson at 7-1 and Matt Kenseth at 15-2. Jeff Gordon and Greg Biffle are listed at 10-1.
Supporters for Stewart, currently in the 12th and final spot in the Cup standings, expect him to make a late-season push to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship.
But if Stewart begins to look ahead to 2009, he'll have a difficult time holding off Kevin Harvick, who trails Stewart by only two points with eight races left before the Chase.
Harvick is listed at 18-1 to win tonight's race and 6-1 odds to finish in the top three.
latimes.com
Is Logano ready for the No. 20 ride?
By Reid Spencer
JOLIET, Ill. -- Crew chief Greg Zipadelli doesn't know who will be behind the wheel of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota next season, but he does know who it won't be.
With Tony Stewart set to leave JGR after 10 years to launch Stewart-Haas Racing for 2009, Zipadelli's loyalty to the Gibbs organization outweighed his friendship with Stewart. Accordingly, the longest current association between a driver and crew chief will end when Stewart departs at the end of the season, and Zipadelli stays behind.
Zipadelli will face the challenge of building a relationship with a new driver. Joey Logano, an 18-year-old self-professed candidate for the No. 20 ride, might be the man behind the wheel, though he has yet to compete in his first Cup race.
In four starts in NASCAR's Nationwide Series, however, Logano has two poles and one victory. Though Zipadelli places a high value on experience, he also has a healthy respect for Logano's talent. But the crew chief isn't certain whether Logano is ready to make the jump to Sprint Cup racing.
"That's a big question that I don't know anybody has an answer to," Zipadelli said. "Experience is priceless, you know. It's one thing to do it in other divisions, but when they feed you to the sharks out here on Sunday, you're going against the best in the world that have tons of experience. There's a lot to this sport from just being able to (compete) mentally, physically, and that all comes with time.
"I think from what we've seen so far, I think he has as good of a chance as any 18-year-old to come into this sport and succeed. I think what you've seen . . . over the last few years is somebody that has it, shows it early and they find a way to deal with it. There will be some lumps. If he did it when he was 20, he'd still have some ups and downs."
Zipadelli cited Cup points leader Kyle Busch, who came to JGR this season, as a prime example.
"Look at Kyle and what he went through the first few years (at Hendrick Motorsports) and where he is today and how much more mature (he is), and because of that, where his success is at so far this year is a lot of that," Zipadelli said. "A lot of that is just his experience. All of us have to deal with different things and learn over time.
"Can he (Logano) do it? I think he's got as good of a shot as anybody else."
BROTHER FOLLOWS BROTHER
Ward Burton won the 2002 Daytona 500 in a Dodge sponsored by Caterpillar. Next year, his brother, Jeff Burton, will carry the Caterpillar colors on his No. 31 Richard Childress racing Chevrolet.
"It's been very much in the forefront of my mind," Burton said Thursday after the unveiling of his 2009 car. "The success that CAT has enjoyed in this sport, most of the time Ward was driving it. We hold Caterpillar in really high regard in our family, based on how their relationship with Ward (went) and the things they were able to do together.
"So this is a great opportunity to continue that relationship and to make that Burton involvement even larger. We're really excited about it. It is a unique situation, that's for sure. I don't ever remember a brother driving for a company and then, a few years later, another one driving. It's going to be fun."
ELLEDGE DEBUTS WITH RED BULL
Saturday's Lifelock.com 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Chicagoland Speedway marks the return to action of veteran crew chief Jimmy Elledge, who takes over from Ricky Viers on the No. 84 Red Bull Racing Toyota driven by AJ Allmendinger.
Elledge comes to Red Bull after being released from Chip Ganassi Racing, where he served as crew chief for both Reed Sorenson and Juan Montoya before being released in June.
"Ricky and I worked for a year-and-a-half together, and he's a close friend of mine," Allmendinger said of the change. "I think, ultimately, it just came down to when you go through so many tough times together, it just kind of strains you.
"There's a lot of frustration the last few weeks -- not anything specific, but we've just been struggling. The addition of Jimmy, the experience that he brings -- that will be great for me, not just as a driver, but to have the experience on the pit box. I think, for the team, it's going to be good."
SportingNews.com
Teams taking best guess under Chicago lights
Associated Press
JOLIET, Ill. (AP) -- Although there will be floodlights all around the track, NASCAR teams still are very much in the dark going into the first Sprint Cup series night race at Chicagoland Speedway.
After seven years of racing at the 1.5-mile track on the outskirts of suburban Chicago during the daytime, the race was moved to Saturday night this season.
But NASCAR threw its teams a curveball by not scheduling any nighttime practice sessions at the track in the two days leading up to Saturday's race. And Thursday night's qualifying session was rained out, meaning the first time many drivers will see the track under the lights will be when they take the green flag.
Add in NASCAR's new Car of Tomorrow, which is being used at Chicagoland for the first time after it appeared only in selected races last season, and Sprint Cup series champion Jimmie Johnson says teams are doing a "large degree" of speculating on how to properly adjust their cars to make them handle properly.
"There is a lot of guessing going on," Johnson said. "And engineers are working hard with the crew chief to dream up the optimum setup."
Teams usually keep meticulous notebooks of information on which suspension settings seem to work best in different conditions at each track. But Johnson's teammate, Jeff Gordon, said Hendrick Motorsports' book on Chicagoland won't be of much help this weekend.
"There is no comparison because we've never run here with this car before," Gordon said. "So all the notes and everything that we've learned from the past is pretty much out the window. Other than knowing where the bumps and dips are, it's all new for us."
Johnson said it would be a lot like the 600-mile race at Lowe's Motor Speedway, where teams practice begin racing in the daylight and end up under the lights.
"As time goes on, we just learn how to adjust and anticipate what things will be like," Johnson said. "I would assume that a lot of guys will have the philosophy that you would in the 600-mile race that we have and the track changing and having spring rubbers and a lot of adjustments that you can change quickly on a pit stop built into the cars. But we're all learning."
Several Cup stars were in Friday night's Nationwide series race, hoping a warm-up race under the lights would teach them a thing or two that they could apply to Saturday. Among the big names racing Friday were Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle.
"Fortunately I'm in the Nationwide race, that's what helps out a lot of us guys," Busch said. "We get a basis of what kind of will go on. To run that race (Friday) night, that's going to be good to see what going from day to night is going to do. At 7 o'clock it's still pretty light out. Then when the night ends, probably about nine or 9:20, 9:30, it will be pretty dark by then. We'll get to see first hand what the race track is going to do."
As for the fans, night racing at Chicagoland could end up being a better show.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. said the track already was becoming easier to pass on with age, as cars stick better to broken-in pavement. Racing at night could make for an even grippier track, making passing easier.
"I like it," Earnhardt said. "This track is aging and turning gray and losing grip. So at night, it will bring in some grip. But since the track has aged, you will still be able to move around on it. It will be kind of fun."
"I really like this track. It has got some bumps and stuff that are getting worse and worse in turn 3, but it is still a fun track."
The lights will change the way drivers approach the track, too. Sometimes, Gordon said, it's actually better.
"I am anxious to see this track under the lights," Gordon said. "You're always curious how they have lit the track and what kind of shadows and glares there are. Usually it's better at night than it is during the day. And I'm sure the conditions will certainly be really good because you want to race under cool track conditions and it makes the cars handle better and faster and I think it makes for a more exciting race."
Johnson agreed.
"When you're out there, I can see how this track has aged," Johnson said. "And I really think we're going to see the best race that this track has ever had this weekend."
Lifelock.com 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
News that Tony Stewart is leaving Joe Gibbs Racing for 50 percent ownership in Stewart-Haas Racing might take the bite out of the bad luck that has been dogging Smoke all season with a return to Chicagoland Speedway on Saturday night, where Joliet Smoke is the defending two-time champion.
This will be the first time Sprint Cup will race under the lights at Chicagoland so look for some exciting side-by-side racing at the 1.5-mile intermediate D-oval. Featuring 18 degree banked turns and a 5-degree backstretch, Chicagoland should be an exciting race with many lead changes and a fight to the finish. If you are going, your seats in the grandstand could be 15 stories high, the same height as the Navy Pier Ferris Wheel.
Who will win the Lifelock.com 400?
Gamblers should be aware that Chevrolet has won the past four races and six of the last seven at Chicagoland. In that same time period defending champion Tony Stewart has won twice and so has Kevin Harvick while Gordon won in 2006 and Dale Jr. won in 2005.
Last week we rode shotgun with Kyle Busch at 5/1 and thanks to Matt Kenseth (depends upon your point of view) crashing race leader Jeff Gordon, Busch exacted his revenge from last year and found himself in victory lane for the sixth time this season. And who is to stop "Wild-thing" from winning again this weekend? Oddsmakers still like Busch to win since he has been set as the 5/1 favorite once again.
The bad news for Busch, if there is any, is that this season he has not won back-to-back races and he has only won twice the week after a win. That is not to say he won't win this week, but he is better at other venues. Of the three years he has raced at Chicagoland his best result was third place. Last year he finished 13th place and has an average finish of 10 at Chicagoland.
Ordinarily I'd pick Smoke to win this race but two factors are weighing heavily against this; the deal to own 50 percent of Stewart-Haas Racing next year and his really, really bad luck this year. I figure Smoke to finish the year healthy as he is already obviously looking ahead to next year.
The driver I am focusing my investment on this Saturday won USG Sheetrock 400 at Chicagoland in 2005. In 2006 he finished in fifth-place and last year finished 19th place after qualifying fifth on the grid. After last week's eighth place finish moved him to second place 182 points behind Kyle Busch, the Hendrick Motorsports representative has been their best driver this year. And the last race he won was the Lifelock 400 a few months ago.
To NASCAR fans having Busch at No.1 and Junior at No. 2 is like the battle between good and evil itself. This week I like good to beat evil.
Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr., No. 88, (8/1)
LifeLock.com 400 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Lifelock.com 400 this weekend. Last weekend we had a momentum play and backed Kurt Busch at -1.40 to finish the Coke Zero 400 in front of Clint Bowyer. Busch had another solid finish at Daytona as the No.2 car finished fourth and picked up 160 points chasing his brother while Bowyer ended the race in ninth place which was good enough for 138 points in the Sprint Cup. The win brings my record Over-the-Wall to 11-11 with -1.20 units on the season after 18 of 36 Sprint Cup races have been completed.
Long Odds Value Pick
I was quite surprised to see Kevin Harvick with double-digit odds in a race he could very well win. He has had as much success as any other driver at Chicagoland and has a good record on intermediate tracks. One thing that makes Harvick a choice for me on Saturday night is his average finish of eighth place; this includes two wins, four top-fives and five top-10 finishes. On intermediate tracks Harvick generally is a top driver with seven wins, 29 top-five finishes and 64 top-10 finishes. Harvick is on the bubble in the standings at 13th place 543 points behind Kyle Busch in Sprint Cup. While he has yet to win a race this year Chicagoland is a great place for him to make a run at the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, 15/1
Square Tire Pick
Kurt Busch (+1.20) vs. Mark Martin (-1.50)
The "Old Man" will race for ailing Hendrick Motorsports next season replacing the No. 5 driver Casey Mears. While this is exciting for Martin he'll still have to finish out the year for DEI in the No. 8 National Guard Chevrolet. Chicagoland has not been Martin's best track. He's never won here, let alone start a race from the pole. In the past five years he has never finished better than 14th place and only back in 2002 when the race was called the Tropicana 400 did Martin finish in the top 10; he finished in ninth place and in 2001 had his best finish at sixth place. Martin has an average finish of 13.7. The other Busch, older brother Kurt, has experienced a renaissance the past two races for Penske racing as he won two weeks ago and finished fourth at Daytona last week. Busch is currently in 17th place in the Sprint Cup standings and needs to continue racing well to have a shot at the Chase. While Busch has an average finish of 15.7 place at Chicagoland this stat is reflective of two awful races in 2003 and 2004 where he finished 39th and 35th respectively. Other than that Busch has raced really well and commanded five top-10 finishes. In the past three years he has finished sixth, eighth and eighth which is why I am backing the older Busch against the Old Man on Saturday Night.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No.2 , (+1.20)
DOCSPORTS.COM
LifeLock.com 400: NASCAR at Night
By: Chance Harper
There's nothing straight about Chicagoland Speedway, site of this year's LifeLock.com 400, where even the straightaway is banked, albeit ever so slightly. NASCAR races under the lights Saturday night, with Kyle Busch looking to extend his dominance over the Smokeless Set this season though his results in the Windy City have been spotty. Can Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon get back into the winner's circle?
Chicagoland is going under the lamp. Saturday’s LifeLock.com 400 (formerly the Tropicana 400) will be a night race after seven years in the sunshine; NASCAR betting isn’t likely to be affected, although there might be a few more eyeballs catching the race in the evening. Start time is 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
This is a relatively new race on the Sprint Cup circuit. Chicagoland Speedway opened in 2001, just down the road from Joliet, Ind. It looks at first blush like your typical 1.5-mile D-shaped oval, but there is one noticeable quirk: The straightaway is banked at a five-degree angle.
That’s not enough of a feature to throw off the drivers who usually perform well at these 1.5-mile tracks. Jimmie Johnson rattled off five straight Top-6 results here before crashing during last year’s event; he’s a quiet 10-1 on the NASCAR odds for Saturday. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon has also enjoyed success on these ovals, including a win at this event in 2006. Yet Gordon is just 12-1 this time around.
Johnson and Gordon won seven of the first 11 points races of the 2007 season; this year, they’ve combined for one thus far. Kyle Busch has stolen the spotlight from Hendrick with six victories and 11 Top-5 results for Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s in first place in the driver standings and the favorite for Saturday’s race at 7-2. However, Busch has just one good result in three attempts at Chicagoland, a third-place finish in 2006.
Carl Edwards is second on the 2008 Cup victories list with three, and he’s the second favorite at 5-1 to claim his first win at Chicagoland after placing third last year. Edwards hasn’t taken the checkered flag since the April 6 race in Texas – also a 1.5-mile track. Third favorite Kasey Kahne is 6-1; he’s third in Cup wins this year with two and usually excels on these tracks, but has yet to crack the Top 20 after four trips to Chicago.
The driver with the best track record here is actually Kevin Harvick. He won the first two Cup races held at Chicagoland and has an average result of eighth. But this is a very small sample size, and while Harvick was fourth in this event in 2006 and 2007, his Richard Childress Racing team hasn’t had a lot of success the past couple of seasons. RCR took two of the 18 Cup races this year, none by Harvick. That leaves him in the second tier of drivers at 14-1 for the LifeLock.com 400.
Meanwhile, defending champion Tony Stewart is looking for some love at 9-1 for this Saturday. He won this event in 2004 and has five Top-5 results in seven races. But Stewart is struggling a bit this year. This is the maiden voyage for Joe Gibbs and Toyota after five years with Chevrolet, and while Busch has adjusted well to the Camry, Stewart hasn’t won a single race this season and is languishing in 12th place in the driver standings.
Stewart will soon be back behind the wheel of a Chevy – the two-time Cup champion was slated on Thursday to announce his impending departure from JGR to become a driver and part-owner for Haas CNC Racing. His focus for this week is a valid question mark for bettors.
Other drivers of note for Saturday’s race include Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 8-1, Matt Kenseth at 10-1 and Denny Hamlin at 11-1. Earnhardt is the only one of that trio to win at Chicagoland, back in 2005 when he was still a member of DEI.
Rocky Atkinson
NASCAR
#99 Carl Edwards vs #48 Jimmie Johnson
Play On: 3* #48 Jimmie Johnson +110
My 2nd favorite driver today would be Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has no wins, 4 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes in 6 starts here in Chicago. Johnson has an average finish of 9.2 here in Chicago which is 2nd best among all drivers. Past two seasons, Jimmie Johnson's average finish at track type - INTERMEDIATE SPEEDWAY is 13.1. In 7 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. We'll play Jimmie Johnson to finish ahead of Carl Edwards for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
#20 Tony Stewart vs #11 Denny Hamlin
Play On: 3* #20 Tony Stewart -145
For starters, I think Tony Stewart has the best shot of winning this race. Stewart has 2 wins, 5 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes in his 7 starts here in Chicago. Stewart has an average finish of 11.0 here in Chicago. Stewart is the defending race champion from last season and I feel like he'll get er done again here this weekend. We'll play Tony Stewart to finish ahead of Denny Hamlin for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. vs #24 Jeff Gordon
Play On: 3* #24 Jeff Gordon +115
Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Jeff Gordon. Gordon has 1 win, 4 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes in his 7 starts in Chicago. Gordon has an average finish of 10.0 in Chicago. Past two seasons, Jeff Gordon's average finish at track type - INTERMEDIATE SPEEDWAY is 6.1. In 7 races, he has 1 win and 6 top 10 finishes. This is the best among all drivers. Jeff Gordon's average finish over the past 10 races is 11.6. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 5 top 10 finishes. We'll play Jeff Gordon to finish ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
#2 Kurt Busch vs #12 Ryan Newman
Play On: 3* #12 Ryan Newman +100
Rounding out my Top 5 and sitting in the 5th position is Ryan Newman. Newman has one win, two Top 5 finishes and three Top 10 finishes in his 6 starts in Chicago. Newman has an average finish of 18.8 in Chicago. We'll play Ryan Newman to finish ahead of Kurt Busch for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
My feeling on the state of Nascar at this time. ;D