LifeLock 400 PreQ
Over the last three races Carl Edwards has been displaying championship for posting three straight top 10 finishes with a season best 2nd place finish last weekend at Pocono. Edwards has yet to get in the win column but the early week PreQ Forecast has him ranked as the No. 1 driver heading into the race at Michigan International Speedway. Edwards has been stellar at Michigan in his career winning two of the last four races at the track with an average finish of 7th place in nine starts. Edwards would like nothing more to get to victory lane … look out for the #99 Aflac Ford in the LifeLock 400.
Sitting just behind Edwards, in the No. 3 spot on the PreQ Forecast, is teammate Matt Kenseth. Kenseth won the first two races of the season but has since recorded just four other top 10 finishes; however, three of those have come in the last four races. Kenseth, like Edwards and his Roush Fenway Racing teammates, runs well at Michigan. In 19 career starts at the track Kenseth is averaging a 9th place finish with a pair of wins. He also has recorded 13 top 10 finishes in that span with three consecutive top 5 finishes. Kenseth is a must have for this event.
Clint Bowyer has failed to record a top 10 finish in the last eight races. In five of those starts he has failed to record a top 20 finish as he has fallen all the way back to the 16th position in the point standings. Bowyer, however, posted an 11th place finish at Dover and followed it up with a 12th place finish at Pocono. Michigan has not been that kind to him in his career. In six career starts he has never had a finish in the top 15 with an average finish of 25th place. Although he had a couple of solid outings don’t count on Bowyer making and ground in the Chase for the Championship this weekend.
profantasysports.com
Odds To Win Lifelock 400
Jimmie Johnson +500
Carl Edwards +550
Greg Biffle +700
Kyle Busch +750
Matt Kenseth +850
Jeff Gordon +900
Tony Stewart +1000
Mark Martin +1200
Kurt Busch +1300
Ryan Newman +1500
Kasey Kahne +1700
Brian Vickers +1700
Denny Hamlin +2000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +3000
Jamie McMurray +3500
Jeff Burton +4000
David Ragan +4500
David Reutimann +4500
Martin Truex Jr +4500
Clint Bowyer +4500
Kevin Harvick +5000
Field (Any Other) +1300
LifeLock 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The atmosphere at Michigan International Speedway this Sunday for the NASCAR race will be a little different than in years past thanks to the American Automobile Industry‘s current plight. You see, these Michigan races used to be somewhat of the Super Bowl for all the big wigs of the big three auto makers. It was a homecoming of sorts for all the major cars to be on display. It still is special, but it won’t have the same feel and appeal, at least for the bragging big wigs who would sit in their luxury boxes patting each other on the back because of how fast their cars represented on the track were.
The group of Ford suits drinking their mimosa’s would continually discuss their recent domination at Michigan, boasting how they have won 29 races at Michigan since 1985 while GM used three different divisions over the same span and could win only 13 times. Some one asks about Dodge’s record, and the smug Ford Executive says, “Who?”
Over in the GM box, they’re all laughing and having a good time eating quiche. You know, the whole bankruptcy/bailout thing can be so stressful; getting away from the office and laughing at Ford’s expense is just what is needed. One of the GM executives points over at the Ford box and says, “Should we do it again?”
Another executive asks, “Do What?”
Then he replies, “Let those dummies over there win this race again in exchange for us winning another Championship.”
I’m pretty sure that is the type of banter that goes on, or may be not. But the thought sure sounds funny.
A GM car has won the Cup Championship 19 times since 1984 while Ford has won six times. On the flip side of Chevy’s dominance over the course of a season, Ford has dominated on their home track winning 29 times since 1985.
There is no real logical explanation for the continued dominance. Ever since Bill Elliott took six of eight races beginning in 1984, Ford has never looked back in Michigan. They have gone on a tear that has seen the likes of car owners Jack Roush, Roger Penske, and Robert Yates all equally taking rabbit punches at GM.
Since making their re-entry in NASCAR in 2001, Dodge has been successful at Michigan from the very start. They won that first year there and have won a total of six times over that span to now. Over the same time period, a Chevy has won only twice.
What is really shocking is that a driver like Jimmie Johnson, who has dominated on the sister track in Fontana, has only two Top five finishes in Michigan with no wins. It remains one of the few tracks that Johnson has never won on in his brief seven year career. He may have three straight titles, but he doesn’t have any Michigan hardware.
Chevy’s other main Championship contender is Jeff Gordon who has won four titles for the manufacturer, but only has two Michigan wins in 32 attempts over his career. Like Johnson, Gordon has won at California three times, but the success hasn’t translated over to Michigan. Prior to Dale Earnhardt Jr’s lucky win in this race last season, Gordon was the last Chevy to win at Michigan, way back in 2001.
Even though Michigan and California are almost exactly alike, they run much different as evident by both Johnson and Gordon. However, if you look at what the Roush-Fenway guys are doing on both tracks, you’d say they were in fact very similar.
A Roush driver has won at least one Michigan race a season for the last seven years. At the same time, they have also won five straight California races, including Matt Kenseth’s win there this season.
Last season, the Roush brigade flexed their muscles at Michigan giving the Ford big wigs something to really boast about. Four of the five Roush drivers finished in the Top 10 and each of them led a lap during this race. All of them doing so with only 13 laps left in the race. They all had to pit for a splash of fuel while Dale Jr gambled and won by staying out.
In the fall race, Roush took it up a notch further by placing all five of his cars in the top 10, including having four finishes in the Top 5. Carl Edwards won the race and culminated one of the most decisive whippings Ford has ever laid on it’s competitors.
In all, Jack Roush, who hails from nearby Lavonia, MI, has won at Michigan ten times. Should one of his cars win this week, he’ll tie the Wood Brothers for most wins by an owner at the track. The driver who ruined a succession of Fords finishing 1-2-3-4 in the fall race was a Toyota driven by Kyle Busch. Now, the combination of Toyota and Busch in Michigan isn’t thought of too highly. Busch has thrust himself out there as NASCAR’s villain and Toyota is thought of in a negative light because it’s perceived as not being American.
What’s funny about the perception is that of all the cars in the Cup circuit, the Camry is the only car manufactured in America. While Ford, Dodge and Chevy make those models in Canada and Mexico, the Camry is built in Georgetown, Kentucky. That little piece of funny is a constant joke in the Toyota luxury box by their executives who joined the NASCAR party at Michigan just three seasons ago.
Toyota is still looking for their first elusive win at Michigan and it‘s likely that Kyle Busch will be the one to do it when it does happen. He came close last season with the second place run in the fall, but Carl Edwards was just too good.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch - Toyota (6/1)
2) #17 Matt Kenseth - Ford (13/1)
3) #16 Greg Biffle - Ford (12/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson - Chevy (6/1)
5) #99 Carl Edwards - Ford (10/1)
Driver Highlights - Michigan
VegasInsider.com
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Michigan International Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last eight races at Michigan. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Two wins, five top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 13.2
# Average Running Position of 9.0, second-best
# Driver Rating of 105.1, fourth-best
# 98 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# 543 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.975 mph, third-fastest
# 1,291 Laps in the Top 15 (84.1%), second-most
# 380 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
# Two wins, two top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 20.1
# Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 96.2, sixth-best
# 93 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# 1,018 Laps in the Top 15 (66.3%), eighth-most
# 285 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
# One win, three top fives, six top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 16.7
# Average Running Position of 10.3, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 101.4, fifth-best
# 98 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.728 mph, fifth-fastest
# 1,177 Laps in the Top 15 (76.7%), fifth-most
# 369 Quality Passes, third-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 6.6
# Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
# Series-best Driver Rating of 115.7
# Series-high 134 Fastest Laps Run
# 565 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 174.229 mph
# Series-high 1,385 Laps in the Top 15 (90.2%)
# Series-high 410 Quality Passes
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
# Two wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
# Average finish of 11.8
# Average Running Position of 13.3, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 93.2, ninth-best
# 72 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# 1,016 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), ninth-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# One top five, two top 10s
# Average finish of 15.5
# Average Running Position of 13.1, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 88.5, 11th-best
# 264 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
# Two top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 14.4
# Average Running Position of 9.4, third-best
# Driver Rating of 106.9, second-best
# 114 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.986 mph, second-fastest
# 1,219 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), third-most
# 325 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
# Two wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 9.1
# Average Running Position of 11.5, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 106.4, third-best
# 76 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# 530 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.932 mph, fourth-fastest
# 1,213 Laps in the Top 15 (79.0%), fourth-most
# 343 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet)
# One win, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.5
# Average Running Position of 14.6, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 94.5, eighth-best
# 52 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# 570 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.455 mph, sixth-fastest
# 1,024 Laps in the Top 15 (66.7%), seventh-most
Odds and Ends - Michigan
VegasInsider.com
Hot Facts
# There have been seven different pole winners in the past eight Michigan races. Qualifying was canceled in June 2008.
# Carl Edwards has finished on the lead lap in all nine of his Michigan races and is the only driver with more than one race there who has completed all of his possible laps.
Race #: 15 of 36 (6-14-09)
Track Size: 2 miles
# Race Length: 400 miles
# Banking/Corners: 18 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 12 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees
Driver Rating at Michigan
Carl Edwards 115.7
Jimmie Johnson 106.9
Matt Kenseth 106.4
Greg Biffle 105.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 101.4
Kurt Busch 96.2
Kyle Busch 95.7
Tony Stewart 94.5
Jeff Gordon 93.2
Brian Vickers 89.7
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (8 total) at Michigan.
Qualifying/Race Data
2008 pole winner: None (weather)
2008 race winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr., 145.375 mph, 6-15-08)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (194.232 mph, 37.069 seconds, (6-18-05)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (173.997 mph, 6-13-99)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage.
LifeLock 400 Driver Rating
The duo of Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman at Stewart-Haas Racing continues to roll on. With 14 races in the books, Stewart and Newman, competing in their first year as teammates in Stewart’s new ownership collaboration with Gene Haas, find themselves first and fourth in the current point standings, respectively. With his win this past Sunday at Pocono Raceway, Stewart not only claimed the 34th win of his NASCAR Sprint Cup career, he became the first driver/-owner since Ricky Rudd in 1998 to win a points race. That’s a span of 375 races
And for the second consecutive week, the two-time series titlist is atop the leader board heading to this Sunday’s LifeLock 400 at Michigan International Speedway. “Last year, there certainly were a lot of sleepless nights and a lot of headaches going to bed,” Stewart said following his win on Sunday. “Once you get it all together and you get a good group like this and you’ve got a group that’s as hungry as this group is, they feed off each other. Really, all I have to do is walk in there and pat those guys on the back, because they are a lot smarter people than I am.”
Newman, Stewart’s running mate and fellow Hoosier, has put together a string of six straight top-10 finishes. He was 32nd after the season’s fourth race, but has moved up 28 spots over the past 10 races. This is Newman’s best start to the season since the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup began in 2004. After 14 races in 2008, Newman, then competing for Penske Racing, was 14th in points.
“We’ve worked hard as a team to obtain our recent finishes,” said Newman. “Whether it has been pit strategy or just fixing mechanical problems during a race, it’s really been a team effort. We’re pleased with the recent results and where we currently stand in points, but we still haven’t reached the ultimate and that’s going to Victory Lane. We’re all excited about Tony’s win at Pocono and know that we can also get there.”
Both Stewart and Newman have enjoyed a fair amount of success at Michigan. Stewart has one win — a race-shortened victory in 2000 — to go along with nine top-five and 13 top-10 finishes. Newman is a two-time winner at MIS — winning in 2003 and again in 2004. He also has posted four top fives at the two-mile oval. Stewart’s Average Running Position of 10.4 is second best on the circuit in 2009, while his Driver Rating of 101. 2 is fourth best.
profantasysports.com
Driver Handicaps: Michigan
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for Sunday's LifeLock 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 200-lap event.
Who's HOT at Michigan
• Carl Edwards leads all drivers with a 6.6 average finish.
• Two-time winner Matt Kenseth has only finished outside of the top 15 twice in 19 starts.
• Mark Martin has four victories and 28 top 10s in 46 starts.
• Two-time winner Jeff Gordon has an 11.8 average finish in 32 starts.
• Tony Stewart has a 6.6 average finish in his last five starts.
• Brian Vickers has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts.
Keep an Eye on at Michigan
• Jimmie Johnson led 77 laps with the new car at Michigan in 2008.
• Michigan is one of four tracks at which Greg Biffle has scored multiple wins.
• Kyle Busch has a 5.8 average finish in the five races on 2-mile tracks with the new car.
• David Ragan recorded a 5.5 average finish in 2008 at MIS.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be looking to return to Victory Lane for the first time since winning at Michigan last June.
• Kurt Busch is the only driver not mentioned that ranks in the top 10 in the Driver Ratings over the past eight races at MIS.
Track Performers
Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Mark Martin lead all full-time drivers with five wins each on 2-mile speedways. Martin tops all drivers with 36 top 10s, and Gordon leads all in laps led with 1,545. Carl Edwards, who has made 19 starts, holds the best finishing average on 2-mile tracks at 6.6. Kenseth is second in average finish at 9.4 and Jimmie Johnson (10.4), Gordon (11.3) and Kyle Busch (12.8) round out the top five. Kenseth has the best average finish in the five races on 2-mile tracks with the new car.
Qualifying Tidbits
Ten Michigan pole winners will be among those attempting to qualify for Sunday's LifeLock 400. Bill Elliott leads all active drivers with six poles at MIS. The pole position has produced the most winners at Michigan of any other starting spot, and the top-five starting positions have produced 51 winners out of 79 races at the track. Kasey Kahne is the last driver to have won from the pole at Michigan in this race in 2006. Qualifying has been cancelled four times at Michigan, most recently for this event last year.
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Carl Edwards
Pete Pistone: Greg Biffle
Rachael West: Jeff Gordon
Kym Opalenik: Matt Kenseth
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
1. Tony Stewart: Stewart has one win and 13 top-10 finishes in 20 starts at Michigan International Speedway. His best finish in the last 10 races came in this event in 2005 when he led 97 laps en route to a second-place finish. This weekend, Stewart will make his Michigan debut with Stewart-Haas Racing. The car he will be driving (chassis No. 509) is the same one that finished fourth at Texas.
2. Jeff Gordon: Gordon has two wins, five poles, 15 top fives and 20 top-10 finishes in 32 starts at Michigan International Speedway. Gordon is first among active full-time drivers in laps led, with 899. Gordon's worst finishes in the last seven races at MIS have come in his last three starts, which include 18th- and 42nd-place finishes with the new car in 2008. This weekend, the No. 24 Dupont Team will be bringing back the same car (chassis No. 503) that won at Texas Motor Speedway in April.
3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson's best finish in 14 races at Michigan International Speedway came in the 2007 August race when he took the checkered flag in third. He finished sixth in this event last year, to mark his best consecutive finishes at the track. In the 2004 August race, Johnson started from the pole - after rain washed out qualifying - but his day ended after 81 laps when the engine expired in the Lowe's Chevrolet placing him 40th, his worst finish and only DNF at MIS. In the last four races at MIS, Johnson has combined to lead 148 laps. This weekend, the Lowe's Team will debut a new chassis (No. 552) in the LifeLock 400.
4. Ryan Newman: Nine of Newman's starts at Michigan International Speedway have been from within the top 10, including one start from the pole in 2005. Newman has won twice at Michigan and has finished in the top five four times. This weekend, Newman will make his debut at MIS with Stewart-Haas Racing and will be shooting for his seventh consecutive top 10 of 2009.
5. Kurt Busch: Busch has recorded two wins and six top 10s in 16 starts at Michigan International Speedway. One of his victories came with his current team, Penske Racing, in the 2007 August race. This weekend, Busch will be back in the same car (chassis No. 605) that finished eighth at Texas.
6. Carl Edwards: Edwards has dominated the NASCAR Loop Data stats over the last eight races at Michigan International Speedway. He won his first Sprint Cup race at MIS in the 2007 June race after leading 63 laps from the 12th starting position. He went on to earn another victory last August to mark his eighth top 10 in nine starts. Edwards, who holds the best average finish (6.6) at MIS, will be driving the same car (chassis No. 639) that last finished fifth in the All-Star race at Lowe's Motor Speedway.
7. Greg Biffle: Biffle is coming off his seventh top 10 in 12 starts at Michigan International Speedway after finishing fourth last August. His worst finish came in this event last season after the team missed the setup on the No. 16 Ford. Biffle, who won consecutive races at MIS in 2004-2005, will be racing the same car (chassis No. 648) that finished third at Texas.
8. Matt Kenseth: With the exception of the 2007 June race, Kenseth has put together a stellar career in 19 races at Michigan International Speedway. In that event, Kenseth recorded his first DNF, and first finish outside the top 20, after crashing on lap 75. He has two wins, 13 top 10s, including six-straight from 2002-2005, and has led 222 laps at MIS. Kenseth is coming off three consecutive top fives at MIS, which have lowered his finishing average to 9.1, the second best among all drivers.
9. Kyle Busch: Busch is coming off his best finish, of second, in eight starts at Michigan International Speedway. The runner-up finish came in his second track start with Joe Gibbs Racing, and it was his third top 10 in eight starts. Busch posted an average finish of 20.7 in his previous six Michigan starts with Hendrick Motorsports. This weekend, Busch will pilot the same JGR chassis (No. 236) that finished 18th at Texas after early contact and pit road issues.
10. Jeff Burton: Burton has captured eight top-10 finishes in 30 starts at Michigan International Speedway, all coming with Roush Racing from 1996-2004. His best finish in nine starts with Richard Childress Racing is three 11th-place finishes. His worst finish (42nd) with RCR came in the 2006 August race when the No. 31 Chevrolet lost an engine on the 17th lap after starting from the pole. This weekend, Burton will be racing the same car (chassis No. 274) that last finished 25th in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600.
11. David Reutimann: Reutimann has yet to finish in the top 10 in a Sprint Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway. Reutimann has made four starts at MIS, and his best finish, of 14th, came in the fall 2008 race.
12. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin's best finish at Michigan International Speedway came in the 2007 August race when he placed fifth. The finish was his first top five, and it helped his finishing average of 15.5 in five starts. That average took a hit last August when the engine expired in his No. 11 Toyota. This weekend, Hamlin will debut a new car (chassis No. 246) in the LifeLock 400.
13. Mark Martin: Martin is coming off his 28th top-10 finish at Michigan International Speedway. The finish was his first top 10 at MIS driving a Chevrolet. His 16 top fives and 27 of his top 10s came with Roush Racing from 1989-2006. This weekend, Martin will make his first track start with Hendrick Motorsports driving the same car (No. 523) that has competed in four races in 2009 on 1.5-mile tracks (Vegas, Atlanta, Texas and Lowe's).
14. Kasey Kahne: Kahne is coming off his worst finish, of 40th, at Michigan International Speedway after the engine expired in his No. 9 Dodge. Last year in this event, Kahne finished second for his fifth top five, which includes a win the 2006 June race.
15. Juan Pablo Montoya: Michigan International Speedway is Montoya's worst track on the circuit based on his 33.0 finishing average. His best success at the track came in the CART series, where he posted a win and a second-place finish with Chip Ganassi. This weekend, Montoya will be driving the same car (chassis No. 903) that finished seventh at Texas.
16. Clint Bowyer: Michigan International Speedway is Bowyer's worst track on the schedule based on his 25.2 average finish. His best finish, of 16th, in six starts came in this event in 2007. This weekend, Bowyer will be racing the same chassis (No. 264) that finished 26th at Phoenix.
17. Brian Vickers: Some of Vickers' best finishes since joining the Red Bull Team have come on the 2-mile tracks of Michigan and Fontana. In his last three starts at Michigan, he's finished in the top 10. Vickers' fourth-place run in this event last year is his best at the track.
18. Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose has made one Sprint Cup start at Michigan International Speedway, but only was able to complete 17 laps after the engine expried. In that race, he was driving the Wood Brothers Ford. Now, he heads to Michigan fresh off his third top 10 of the season with JTG-Daugherty Racing.
19. Martin Truex Jr.: Martin Truex Jr. has made six starts at Michigan and has finished in the top 10 twice, a pair of second-place finishes in 2007. He led 54 laps in this event in 2007 after starting eighth. This weekend, Truex Jr. will pilot the same car (chassis No. 080) that finished 32nd at Las Vegas.
20. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Michigan International Speedway still remains the only track where Earnhardt Jr. has gone to Victory Lane in a points paying race with Hendrick Motorsports. His win in this event last year was his first at the track and sixth top 10 in 19 starts. This weekend, Earnhardt Jr. will be back behind the wheel of the same car (chassis No. 499) that finished 20th at Texas after contact with the wall late in the race.
LifeLock 400 HOT! Sheet
If it seems like Ryan Newman has been talked about a lot in this column this season, it’s because he has been. He has been making fantasy racing owners smile wide with his performances. As you can see on our chart, he has the best average finish in the last six races of anybody in the sport. During that span, he has five top 5s and one 8th place finish (Dover). This run has vaulted him into 4th place in the standings. He has a couple of wins at Michigan, and another could come this Sunday.
One of the nice turnarounds over the last couple of months has been Sam Hornish, Jr. The former open-wheeler has been a great value to fantasy players with an average finish of 13th in the last three events. Just prior to that, he led 15 laps and wound up in victory lane in the Sprint Showdown to get him into the All Star race. The #77 team is coming off of a race in which they made the right call on fuel that resulted in a solid top 10 at Pocono. His stock is definitely on the rise.
As a participant in fantasy racing, you need to consider a lot of things. Near the top of the list has to be consistency. If you look on our sheet this week, you’ll notice that Greg Biffle is percentage points away from having identical numbers in the last 3, the last 6 and the last 9 races. Included in there are a couple of 3rd place showings (Texas and Dover). Michigan has traditionally been one of his best tracks. We consider him a must have this weekend.
At the very bottom of the list this week is Denny Hamlin. If it’s not one thing, it’s another that has plummeted him all the way down to 12th in the standings. He has had two awful finishes that aren’t his fault at all. At Dover, a promising day ended quickly when a cut tire sent him hard into the wall and out of the event in 36th. At Pocono, the race had just started but it was over for him. On the first lap, the car stalled. Later it did the same thing. They would get back on the track but finish 38th. Last year he had an engine blow here, so you may want to shy away from him this week.
Near the bottom with him is Kurt Busch. In the ten races since his victory in Atlanta, the blue deuce has only managed to average 15th. Most recently, a vibration on the car sent him home in 34th at Charlotte. Last week at Pocono, he fought a tight condition for most of the first half of the day. Then on lap 129, he heard a popping sound that turned out to be a broken water pump. He ended up eight laps down in 37th position. He has a couple of wins in Motown, so we can’t say sit him. But he gets the “buyer beware” label this week.
profantasysports.com
Vickers takes pole for Michigan
Brooklyn, MI (Sports Network) - Brian Vickers edged Kyle Busch in Friday's Sprint Cup Series qualifying at Michigan International Speedway to grab the pole for the LifeLock 400.
Vickers lapped the fast two-mile oval at 189.110 m.p.h. (38.073 seconds) in his No.83 Red Bull Toyota for his third pole of the season and the eighth of his Sprint Cup career. He also captured his second pole at Michigan, with his first coming here in August 2008.
"We've had two really good qualifying efforts here," Vickers said. "We've always run really well here, and we thought we had a win here last year. There was a mixup at the end of the race with the positioning on the last restart, but hopefully we can get it back today."
Vickers finished seventh in the August race at Michigan in '08.
Last week, NASCAR's rule change for restarts went into effect at Pocono, with lead-lap cars lining up side-by-side just before the green flag waves.
Busch took the outside pole after turning in a lap at 188.536 m.p.h. (38.189 seconds), giving Toyota a front row sweep at Michigan.
"We were happy with it," Busch said. "Basically, we unloaded (the car) off the truck today in race trim, so hopefully we'll be faster (in final practice) tomorrow and be better for Sunday."
Three-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson qualified third, followed by David Reutimann and Kurt Busch.
AJ Allmendinger, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer and John Andretti completed the top-10.
Tony Stewart, the current points leader and last weekend's winner at Pocono, will start 11th.
Jeff Gordon qualified 27th, but will have to start the 400-mile race from the rear of the field after an engine change prior to qualifying. A faulty oil pump belt forced Gordon's motor to blow during practice earlier in the day.
Carl Edwards, winner here last August, will start 29th, while Dale Earnhardt Jr., the defending race winner, will roll off 30th.
Mike Skinner was the only driver who failed to qualify.
Sunday's race is scheduled to start just after 2:00 p.m. (et).
Lifelock 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Tony Stewart will try to build on the momentum from last week’s vapor-fueled win as NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series makes it way to Brooklyn, Michigan for the season’s first stop at Michigan International Speedway this Sunday at 12:30 p.m. televised by TNT.
Gamblers looking for an edge in this weekend’s race should note that MIS has been particularly kind to Rousch Fenway Racing. Jack Rousch is tied with the Wood Brothers for the most wins at MIS at 11. Rousch has been masterful at guiding his drivers to the winner’s circle as Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth have all won twice at MIS. Another helpful hint is that in 14 starts at MIS Jimmie Johnson has never won and has an average finish of 14.4.
Who will win the 2009 Lifelock 400?
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is the Lifelock 400’s defending champion; his first and only, in case you didn’t realize it, as a member of Hendrick Motorsports. Junior’s 27th-place finish last week killed any hopes Junior Nation might have had for the 88 car to make the Chase this year. Junior is now twentieth in the Sprint Cup standings and 247 points out of 12th place. Keep in mind Junior’s crew chief was replaced by Lance McGraw two weeks ago. The pink cloud under McGraw perhaps has burst. Junior notched a 12th at Dover but it is looking like he isn’t racing a lot better since he got a new crew chief. As they say in football now he’s playing for pride. At this point backing Junior is a losing proposition so lay off the 88 until further notice.
Last week at the Pocono 500 my pick, Tony Stewart (10/1), had to go from worst to first in a back-up car to get his first official win of the season as a driver and NASCAR owner. Stewart won on fuel as he outpaced Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson ran out of gas on the final lap of the race. The win extended Stewart’s lead to 71 points over Jeff Gordon on the Sprint Cup leader-board.
If Stewart wins again this week it will be fun to count how many people are shocked at how well Stewart-Hass racing is doing in their inaugural year. (Most of the thanks can be directed to Hendrick Motorsports where SHR gets their chassis and shares data. But that isn’t a big deal, right?) Even so, last time Stewart won at Michigan was in that orange car in 2000. In 20 starts at MIS Smoke he has an average finish of 12.4 with nine top-fives and 13 top-ten finishes. Stewart has a 71-point cushion going into Michigan so he doesn’t have to take too many chances. He has had three DNFs at MIS. I’m not saying Stewart will be overcautious or anything, but just do enough to keep that No.14 car atop the Sprint Cup standing.
This week I like the guy who brings his rock-n-roll to a country show. That’s right, the driver who could write the book on “How to Make Friends in Nashville”, Kyle Busch. Let’s face it, Busch is eager to get back in the spotlight for doing what he does well and that is winning races. While we’re facing it, “Rowdy” looked awful breaking that Gibson Les Paul. Maybe that jinxed him for Sunday where he was equally atrocious and finished 22nd at the Pocono 500. The thing is with Kyle is that he doesn’t stay bad for long and despite his lousy numbers at Michigan I think we’ll see a different Kyle on Sunday. What better way to do that than to bring home a win?
Pick: Kyle Busch, No. 18, (2/1)
2009 Lifelock 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Richard Childress Racing’s Reutimann moved from 13th to 11th in the standings and won the Coca-Cola 600 a few weeks ago. However, Reutimann has never done better than 14th at Michigan. You can’t ignore the way he is clicking with his crew chief Rodney Childers; in his last three races Reutimann has one win, one pole and two top-three finishes. They play the fuel-mileage lottery and keep winning. Keep in mind that Michigan is considered a fuel-mileage track and that will definitely play well into RCR’s hands. Despite racing well, you’ll get another swell price this week as Reutimann is 75/1 to win at MIS. If you think there is absolutely no way he’s winning the race a different future wager offering a great price is backing the 00 Toyota at 22/1 as a top-three finisher.
Pick: Dave Reutimann, No. 00, (75/1)
2009 Lifelock 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Tracking last week’s odds on the Top-three finish race winner Stewart paid 3/1, Edwards paid 5/2 and third place finisher Dave Reutimann paid out a hefty 18/1. Thanks to Johnson running out of gas on the final lap Reutimann ended up cashing a top-three ticket. This week at MIS there are a few contenders who are worthy serious consideration for our Sunday afternoon V-chip sports investment. Of most NASCAR faithful are getting behind the Rousch Fenway Racing stable; specifically Edwards (6.6 avg. finish at MIS) and Kenseth (9.9 avg. finish at MIS). Certainly both are a threat to win let alone come in the top three at MIS. Jeff Gordon, while attractive at 5/2 has only come in the top-five once in 11 races. This week I like Mark Martin to represent. In 46 starts at MIS Martin has won four times and notched 28 top-ten finishes. Don’t let last week’s final standings fool you. Martin ran in the top-ten for most of the Pocono 500 but poor fuel management forced him into the pits. Martin’s top-five caliber car finished 19th and dropped Martin from 12th to 13th in the Sprint Cup standings. This week Martin should bounce back strong while his team should learn from last week’s mistakes. Welcome back to the Chase Old Man!
Pick: Mark Martin, No. 5, (4/1)
Docsports.com
Five things to know: LifeLock 400
ESPN.com
What can we expect as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series turns to Michigan International Speedway? ESPN Stats & Information offers five things to know about the LifeLock 400:
ONE
Tony Stewart got his first win of the season last week at Pocono. It was the first for his new team, Stewart-Haas Racing, and the first for an owner/driver since Ricky Rudd won at Martinsville in 1998.
TWO
Roush Fenway Racing has won a race at Michigan in each of the past seven Sprint Cup Series seasons. Overall, they have 11 wins at the track, tied with the Wood Brothers for the most at the track. RFR has won at Michigan more than at any other track.
THREE
Carl Edwards was the winner last season for RFR at Michigan. He's been the class of the field there, finishing seventh or better in seven of the past eight races, and leads in many of NASCAR's loop data categories at the track since 2005.
FOUR
Jeff Gordon finished fourth at Pocono after playing the fuel mileage game, but has fallen far off the pace he set over the season's first seven races. Following his win at Texas, Gordon has just two top-5 finishes over his past seven races and has fallen out of the points lead while struggling with a bad back.
FIVE
There have been 14 different winners in the past 14 spring races at Michigan, the longest active streak for any race in the Sprint Cup Series races.
Who's hot?
• Roush Fenway Racing: All five cars finished in the top 10 in the last Michigan race.
• Matt Kenseth: Four top-5 finishes in past five Michigan races.
• Brian Vickers: Three straight top-10 finishes at Michigan.
• David Reutimann: Currently 11th in points (was 25th at this point last season).
• Bill Elliott: Seven wins at Michigan (second-most all-time).
Who's not?
• Jeff Burton: Zero top-10 finishes in past 12 Michigan races.
• Clint Bowyer: Zero top-10 finishes in past eight series races overall.
• Ryan Newman: Zero top-10 finishes in past nine Michigan races.
• Juan Pablo Montoya: Finished 25th or worse in four career Michigan races.
• David Ragan: Currently 31st in points (was 13th at this point last season).
Fastest after practice at Michigan
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
In the last Cup race at Michigan in August, the final practice session gave a sneak peak as to who would do well on race day. Carl Edwards went to happy hour and reeled off the fastest lap, by almost a full second over the second fastest lap and then went on to lead the most laps on race day with a win in dominating fashion.
This season’s first go around at Michigan during Saturday’s practice session has all the fingers pointing at Mark Martin as the driver to beat in Sunday’s LifeLock 400. Martin ran the second fastest lap in the first practice session while running 26 laps, but was almost a mile an hour faster on average times than Matt Kenseth who had the second fastest average times.
During happy hour, Martin took it up a notch and laid down the fastest single lap along with the best average times among drivers running at least 20 laps.
Martin has four career wins at Michigan, all while driving a Ford, and looks to give Chevrolet their best opportunity to win at Michigan based on fast practice times since Bobby Labonte swept the 1995 season for Joe Gibbs. Chevrolet could definitely use the boost, not only because of the economic climate, but because Ford has basically owned Michigan since 1985.
The Roush drivers were all too present in the Saturday speed charts as expected. Last season every Roush driver, with the exception of Greg Biffle, experienced top 10 finishes in both Michigan races. That is pure team dominance that really hasn’t been exhibited by anyone to that magnitude in NASCAR history.
Greg Biffle came back to Michigan in the fall to finish fourth which gave the Roush drivers four of the top five finishers in the race, including the winner in Edwards.
All five of the Roush drivers appear ready to go again Sunday in Michigan. Each of hem experienced great success between both of Saturday’s practices. Edwards and Biffle experienced the most success between both practices with David Ragan, Matt Kenseth, and Jamie McMurray being very good in one of the sessions.
Michigan Post Practice Driver Ratings:
1) Mark Martin has brought his high banked 1.5 mile chassis that ran at Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas, and Charlotte. In two of those races, the No. 5 team struggled which began the year with the team scratching their heads. However, the team really started to pull things together in the chassis at Texas with a sixth-place finish. This is the car to beat Sunday.
2) Carl Edwards is coming off his best three race stretch of the season. While the horsepower still isn’t quite up to 2008 standards, they are coming closer to their first win of the season. He was fourth and sixth fastest in Saturday practices, including great average times in happy hour.
3) Greg Biffle had the fourth fastest lap in happy hour while running 44 laps. In the first session, Biffle was fifth fastest, but had the third best average speeds.
4) Matt Kenseth had the second best average times in the first session and then worked on long runs in the second session which produced much slower times. Kenseth doing well always at Michigan is something you can just about always count on. He finished in the Top 5 in both 2008 races and has a run of finishing in the Top 5 in six of the last races there. Overall, Kenseth has an average finish of 9.1 in his 19 career starts.
5) Clint Bowyer was very happy with car after the first practice on 23 laps. When happy hour started, Bowyer went and ran nine laps, had a Top 5 lap, and then parked the car saying their good to go for race day.
6) Brian Vickers ran 52 laps in happy hour and slapped own the third fastest lap. More impressive is the fact that he maintained an average speed of over 180 mph when running so many laps. Last year Vickers started on the pole in the fall race and finished seventh. He was leading with 30 laps to go the race. In the first race there last season, Vickers ran fourth. The nice wide open track should be ideal for Vickers to at least equal last seasons run there.
Best of the Rest:
Marcos Ambrose and Joey Logano look very solid and should able to have nice runs on Sunday based on their practice times. Logano looks more comfortable in his car than he has all season and closed out happy hour feeling very good about his strategy for Sunday. Ambrose got better through the day on Saturday and finished strong and ready for Sunday‘s race. Both drivers could be surprise contenders for Top 10 finishes.
Jimmie will be Jimmie
Johnson did nothing special in any practice, at least up to the standards he’s set for himself. Despite being the sister track of California where Johnson dominates, it hasn’t translated to success at Michigan, one of the only ovals Johnson has yet to win on. Two Top 5’s in 14 career starts looks like stat line more reserved for Johnson at Sonoma than a track like Michigan. At the end of the day, Johnson is likely to have a Top 10 finish in business like fashion as he always exemplifies. He definitely doesn’t have the same chassis that saw him lead the most laps in this race last season while also being fast in practice. He brought a brand new chassis specially for this race.
Mears coming Strong
For the third consecutive week, Casey Mears has had a quality practice in preparation for the race. All three Childress drivers looked good, but Mears stands out because he hasn’t traditional been a good practice driver, and also because it has translated over to good runs at Loudon and Pocono. In happy hour Mears was 10th fastest but second fastest in average times.
Dale Junior Fast….
Dale Earnhardt Jr came out swinging to start happy hour and had the second fastest lap overall, and then his times slipped quickly lap after lap. He ran 34 laps and had very mediocre average times. Perhaps he really is fast and he was just practicing late fuel conservation strategy. Why not, It worked last year!
NASCAR -- LifeLock 400 PostQ
It has been going well for Jimmie Johnson and the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet crew. A win at Dover last weekend has ignited the team to that once again championship caliber that makes him the favorite to take home the overall trophy come November. Johnson now ranks as the No. 1 driver on the PostQ forecast after some nifty runs in the practice sessions and qualifying. He in the 2nd position on our Speed chart while qualifying in the 4th position. Johnson also ranks in the 2nd position in NASCAR Driver Rating category which means that he lovers running at Michigan. Johnson should be on everyone’s roster for the LifeLock 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
Brian Vickers ranked in the top 10 on the PreQ forecast and jumps up to the 2nd position on the PostQ forecast after taking the pole for the race. He also ranks in the 3rd spot on our Speed chart after ranking in the top 5 in two of the three practice sessions. Vickers has yet to win this season but has been getting closer each and every week. He recently re-upped with Red Bull Racing and is primed for a stellar run at Michigan. Expect at least a top 10 if not a top 5 out of the #83 Red Bull Toyota.
Although Tony Stewart is ranked No. 1 in the point standings he may struggle this weekend at Michigan. Stewart drops all the way from the 2nd position on the PreQ forecast to the 17th position on the PostQ forecast. Stewart will likely be able to perform much better than that but his 41st rank on our Speed chart has to be of some concern. However, that ranking may not be indicative of the true status of his car as he had some slow laps in the practice sessions dropping his overall Speed Average. Stewart, though, may not be among the top 5 drivers for this race and therefore gets the “buyer beware” label for the race.
profantasysports.com