LifeLock 400 Picks and Predictions
The only good news coming out of Michigan lately is that the Sprint Cup Series rolls into Michigan International Speedway this week for the LifeLock 400.
Michigan International Speedway is known for giving us some pretty boring races with long green runs, very little passing and with the way the COT has run on tracks like Michigan this year, we might be in for a real snooze fest this Sunday.
When handicapping this race, all you have to do is look at the cars from Roush Fenway Racing. They have won at least one Michigan race a season for the last seven years and have won five straight California races, which is almost identical to Michigan International Speedway.
Carl Edwards 6/1
We normally stay away from drivers with such low odds, but with the way Edwards has looked the last few weeks as well as the way he has dominated this track, we think even at these odds he’s the best bet on the board. In nine starts at Michigan, Edwards has only finished outside the top 10 once, with two wins and an average finish of 6.6. Only one other driver has an average finish under 10, which shows you just how dominant Edwards has been here.
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Matt Kenseth would have been our top play this week if not for his teammate getting the top spot, but at 12/1 we think a bet on him to knock off his teammate offers tremendous value. Kenseth won earlier this year at California, which is very similar to Michigan and this type of track has always been one that he has excelled on. In 19 starts here, Kenseth has nine top fives, 13 top 10s and is the only other driver with an average finish under 10.
We also think fellow Roush Fenway Racing teammate Greg Biffle at 7/1 deserves a long look and wouldn't shock us if he won this week. But making three bets with two drivers under 10/1 just doesn't make a lot of sense.
Live Longshot
Kasey Kahne 18/1
If not for Dale Earnhardt Jr. gambling last year, Kahne would have won this race for the second time in three years and while this team has under-performed all year, Michigan could be just the track to get him and his team out of the slump they’ve been in since Daytona. Last week we thought Kahne would have the new Dodge engine, which he didn't, but we double checked this week and can say for sure he will have it under the hood this week.
2009 NASCAR LifeLock 400 Race Information
Race Date: Sunday June 14, 2009
Location: Michigan International Speedway – Brooklyn, Michigan
Pre-Race: 1:30PM ET
Green Flag: Approx. 2:00PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT & TNT HD
Radio Coverage: MRN (Motor Racing Network)
Track Type: D-Shaped Oval
Capacity: 137,243
http://www.thespread.com/nascar-top-stories-700/nascar-lifelock-400-picks-and-predictions.html
Bambi and Mario
Seeing Mario Lemieux celebrating the Stanley Cup with the Pittsburgh Penguins this week brought back fond memories of my first date with my current crew chief and my long-time, main bimbo, Bambi.
True story. For our first night together I planned on taking her out to a night club for an evening of dancing and drinking - lots of drinking - in hopes that afterwards I could get her to give me a look at her tremendous hooters (that may sound crude, but Mr. NASCAR values honesty as the best policy, and that’s all I’m doing here.) Part A of the plan got scuttled after a friend dropped a couple of ducats to the Penguins/Devils game on me, so, though not the most romantic of first dates, we headed off to the Meadowlands.
We got there early, and were watching the teams warm up during skate around, when Bam’ pointed to one of the Penguis on the ice and said, “What’s that guy’s name? Lay-mux? Lem-ee-ooks? Lem-I-ux?"
I said, “That’s Mario Lemieux - he’s one of the best that ever played the game.”
“Oh” she replied, a true economist with words.
A couple of minutes later she pointed to a kid wearing a Lemieux jersey seated a few rows in front of us, and exclaimed, “Look Honey, that guy’s name is Lemieux too. What a coincidence!”
I knew right then that she was a keeper . . .
Todays race:
This has to be the sorriest group of matchups I've seen this season.
Books continue to be afraid (or too smart) to pit Junior in competitive match-ups.
Since this will most likely be a boring race and I'll only have a casual viewing interest, I'll keep my investement interests minor too. No deep strategy today, just for fun, when nothing stands out, when you don't see wagers clearly, back out of your number of wagers out and/or dollar amounts, and default to what has been working for you. With that in mind:
Stewart -130 over Gordon - like Smoke to continue the success he's had all year, and to build on his first win last week.
$130 to win $100.
Cautions: Ov 6 1/2 -150
I figure we see 5-6 today, so at 6 1/2 PLUS HIGH fuel at -150, I know I'm gonna regret this one, but, here I go anyway. There should be a lot of green stretches, and I have no clue why I am taking the Over, so, like my driving - kids, don't try this at home. Gonna need one of the kids to mess up, and a NASCAR special, bogus "debris" caution, put in to help Jr. get the lucky dog and/or gas/pit stop.
$150 to win $100
Last week: 2-0, +$100
Season:17-12, + $1,280.00
Edit: Cautions up to -165 now, making it even STUPIDER to take it.
And I did anyway, since I already posted it.
Sometimes, the bets that look the worst are the ones that take the checkered flag.
Kasey Kahne +125 OV Brian Vickers
Denny Hamlin +130 OV Brian Vickers
Vickers and his team always seem to throw away good finishes with bonehead mistakes.
They should rename this race the Snooze Fest 400
This track is a joke 😛
When the most exciting part of the race is guys running out of gas at the end, you know your event is in trouble.
Only thing that could save this place is if they allowed those things on the wheels like Messala had in Ben-Hur!