New Hampshire 301 Betting News and Notes

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New Hampshire 301 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We go back to some normalcy this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway where the 19th race of the Sprint Cup schedule will use a race package that has been used most of the season, a familiar tire and surface, and we probably won't see qualifying cancelled because of NASCAR being uneasy about the situation they put every team in last week at Kentucky Speedway.

Let's just say the racing last week with so many alterations didn't come close to matching what happened last year at Kentucky, but with Sunday's New Hampshire 301 we should see some great racing on the flat 1-mile paperclip.

Even before Friday and Saturday practice results are known we can get a head start on buying some value on early odds to win based on what happened during earlier races on similar tracks at Phoenix and Richmond. The trends between the three tracks hold well.

It may sound repetitious if reading this column through the years, but I'll go through the process again because it's important. Think in terms of horse racing where there are good horses for certain courses. In NASCAR it's similar as well whether it's a driver that really likes a certain type of track or his crew chief has been able to set-up a car perfectly for that type.

In the case of New Hampshire, we have the luxury of reviewing results from the 1-mile layout at Phoenix and the 3/4-mile layout at Richmond.

Although both tracks look very different from New Hampshire, all three are relatively flat which puts a premium on the balance of the car. A couple drivers can be identified as favorites to win just because of what they did at Phoenix and Richmond and then we can also look at past New Hampshire history to identify who continuously runs well.

Three of the top-five finishers at Phoenix (Mar. 13) also finished in the top-five at Richmond (April 24) and six drivers were in the top-10 of both. That's a strong correlation to be respected this week.

Kevin Harvick won at Phoenix leading a race-high 139 laps and then led 63 laps at Richmond finishing fifth. Carl Edwards led 65 laps at Phoenix finishing second -- barely by a bumper -- and then won at Richmond (led 151 laps). Those two should be the starting point this week as drivers to beat. But then you've also got Kyle Busch with a fourth and third, respectively, in the two races. Denny Hamlin was third and sixth, Kurt Busch sixth and 10th and Matt Kenseth was seventh in both.

For a driver like Kenseth, his finishes get a strong double take because he was good on these tracks last season winning the last time at NHMS (Sept. 27) and also the fall Richmond (Sept. 12) where he led 352 laps.

When the aero-package was changed over to the low-downforce package for all tracks other restrictor-plate tracks, there was a little bit of change in how the cars ran, but we still saw the drivers who liked the track fare well because the speeds don't get high enough at places like Phoenix or Richmond to have the package matter much. Kenseth had struggled with poor luck most of the season until winning at Dover, but his runs on these tracks were his most consistent. Over his career at NHMS he's got two wins in 32 starts with an average finish of 12.6 which is fifth-best among active drivers.

The top NHMS average finish in the series has been Denny Hamlin at 10.2, which is aided by his two wins (2007, 2012). His runner-up last fall was his first top-five there since winning in 2012. This is a spot Hamlin would like to win at since his only win on the year has been the season opening Daytona 500, but I think you're going to see his team utilize the time on the track to prepare their set-up for the 10-race Chase where New Hampshire and Phoenix both have dates.

Yes, winning is important, but getting ready for the Chase, when races really matter, is also a component to consider. Getting a contract extension is also important for Hamlin and winning a championship would certainly make him highly sought after. Not sure what Joe Gibbs is waiting for, but Hamlin has FedEx as a full-time sponsor already and they're going wherever he goes.

For some drivers, they're feeling pretty good about how things will flow in the Chase and they just want to win. Brad Keselowski with his series leading four wins, including the last two on the schedule, fits that criteria. His team is running strong right now on all types of tracks and they're ready for the Chase to try and win his second championship. He's always had the mentality of trying to win at all costs no matter who he offends and he'll continue along those lines this week. He's got a 2014 win at NHMS at has averaged a 10.3 finish in 13 starts.

Kyle Busch won his second career NHMS race last July and his brother Kurt Busch has three wins. Kurt swept the season in 2004 while driving a Roush Ford and his 2008 came in a Penske Dodge. He now drives a Chevy, which hasn't won at NHMS in the past seven races -- Toyota has five wins, Ford two.

With one more NHMS win, Kurt Busch would tie Jeff Burton for most all-time NHMS wins with four and he feels confident every time he races there.

"It’s a track that has been pretty good to me since I started racing in the top series of this sport," the Las Vegas native said. "I raced there for the first time in the Truck Series and won that race. Then, it’s a track where I have three wins in the Cup cars and, when you’re able to go to a track where you’ve had that kind of success, it just gives you that confidence. Because of the wins and everything, it’s a place we go to where I feel like I especially know what it takes from the car and the driver to be successful.”

The top Chevy candidate to end the recent bow-tie slide might be Jimmie Johnson who won for the third and final time at NHMS in 2010. He was third at Richmond in the spring. Like Busch and Johnson, Tony Stewart is also a three-time winner, the last coming in 2011. Kyle Larson had a amazing rookie campaign in 2014 at NHMS finishing third and second, but was 31st and 17th last season. He was 12th at Phoenix in the spring.

Harvick has always fared well on the flat tracks like this, but he hasn't won at NHMS since 2006. He also won at Richmond and Phoenix that season. His only win this year came at Phoenix which extended his track record to eight career wins. He's going to be in the mix, but he's hard to trust in odds to win wagers because it seems like he settles too easily for second-place or thirds too often -- third in two of past three NHMS races. Driver match-ups or fantasy lineups, yes, he's hard to beat, but his short odds weekly make him a very unattractive bet to win.

Keselowski's teammate Joey Logano has also been on a nice run at NHMS lately finishing fourth of better in his last three, which began with his second career win on the track in 2014 when Team Penske swept the season. He won his first career Cup race there in 2009.

Watch the final practices on Saturday to better help the handicapping equation, but there's a good look right now on who should perform the best.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
3) #19 Carl Edwards (10/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)

NASCAR at New Hampshire - Driver Previews
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

There's been 11 different winners through the first 18 Sprint Cup races, and based on Las Vegas odds it doesn't look promising for a 12th different winner in Sunday afternoon's New Hampshire 301. From Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at 5-to-1, up to 20-to-1 with Kurt Busch, the top-10 favored drivers have wins already this season. The only driver with a win at high odds is three-time New Hampshire winner Tony Stewart at 60-to-1.

The stakes are big now for all the other drivers looking for an automatic Chase bid. Maybe it's Chase Elliott that finally cashes in with his first career Cup win Sunday, or perhaps it's Dale Earnhardt Jr's turn to get his first win of the season which would also be his first win on New Hampshire's flat, one-mile paperclip layout. Both are listed at 20-to-1 this week.

The first thing you want to do when handicapping this race is look at the results from Phoenix (March 13) and Richmond (April 24) earlier this year. The distances are similar on each, but the layouts are vastly different. The thing that makes the three tracks correlate well together is because they're all flat. If a crew chief gets the perfect balance of his car for one race, it transfers well to the two other tracks. Three drivers finished in the top-five at both Phoenix and Richmond this season and six finished in the top-10.

It's a strong correlation and an angle to be respected just as much as Saturday's final practices.

Here's a look at all the opening odds posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:

Kevin HARVICK 5/1 - He deserves to be favored because of his dominant Phoenix win in March, but its still a stretch for a driver that has only one win this year. His only New Hampshire Motor Speedway win came in 2006, which not so coincidentally also saw him sweep the season at Phoenix — his first two of a record eight — and he'd also win at Richmond during the year. He's actually the perfect example of a driver doing well on all three going back to the days of Alan Kulwicki, Davey Allison, Rusty Wallace and Jeff Burton. He also finished fifth at Richmond in April leading 63 laps.

He's finished third in two of the past three NHMS starts and has a 13.7 average finish in 30 starts. He's a great play in most driver match-ups and an excellent start in fantasy with his series leading 8.9 average finish this season, but taking these low odds to win isn't one of the better bets on the board.

Kyle BUSCH 5/1 - He's one of the three to have top-fives at both similar tracks with a fourth at Phoenix (led 75 laps) and runner-up at Richmond (led 78 laps). He has three wins on the season, but none since early May at Kansas. Seven races have passed and Brad Keselowski has passed him as the series leader in wins. Kyle won this race last season giving him two on the track. His 37th last fall ended a stellar five-race NHMS run of three runner-ups, an eighth and a win. Never say a driver is due as a reason for betting, but Kyle is.

Brad KESLOWSKI 6/1 - He's won two straight races coming in and he's averaged a 3.0 finish in his past four summer NHMS races, including a 2014 win. The Blue Deuce has busted loose and is going wild on the rest of the series with his four wins. However, it should be noted that he didn't collect a top-10 at either Phoenix or Richmond (11th) this season. Based purely on his current roll, he should be considered a strong candidate to win again.

Denny HAMLIN 8/1 - Put him on a flat track and Las Vegas immediately takes notice and adjusts properly. He's the active leader with a 10.2 NHMS average finish, which includes two wins (2007, 2012). He was runner-up there last fall and continued his momentum on these tracks in 2016 with a third at Phoenix and sixth at Richmond.

Joey LOGANO 8/1 - He won his first career race at NHMS in 2009, then won in the fall of 2014 followed by a fourth last July and a third in September.

Jimmie JOHNSON 8/1 - He started off 2016 with two wins in the first five races but it's been crickets ever since with just one top-10 in his last nine starts. He finished 35th at Daytona and 32nd at Kentucky in his last two starts. The good news is that his car looked great at Richmond in April leading 44 laps and finishing third. He's a three-time NHMS winner, but the last came in 2010 and the first two came in a sweep during his 2003 rookie campaign.

Carl EDWARDS 8/1 - He doesn't have a win in 23 NHMS starts, but he's got some serious credentials coming in this week that say maybe he should be the favorite. He got beat by 0.01 seconds at Phoenix after leading 65 laps and then led 151 laps and won at Richmond. His team has this flat set-up dialed in and it should continue this week with a similar result. Last season he was seventh in the summer race and fifth in the fall.

Matt KENSETH 8/1 - He won the fall NHMS race last season two weeks after leading 352 laps at Richmond in a dominating win. In his first two cracks at tracks like these in 2016 he was seventh at both tracks, and that was at a time when he was struggling to have good finishes. In 32 career starts he has a 12.6 average finish (fifth-best) with two wins.

Martin TRUEX JR 15/1 - In 20 starts he has a 13.9 average finish with seven top-10s. He's been 12th or better in his last five NHMS starts. His best finish on the two similar tracks was ninth at Richmond.

Kurt BUSCH 20/1 - He's won three times in 30 starts, the last coming in 2008. One more win and he'll tie Jeff Burton for most career wins with four. He had the last of his seven top-fives in 2010. The good news with him this week is that he was sixth at Phoenix and 10th at Richmond. Last spring he dominated at Richmond and followed up with a 10th at NHMS. He's using a chassis that used to belong to teammate Danica Patrick that turns its first laps of the season this week. Top-10 like he does every week seems appropriate again, but a win might not be in the cards. He's getting into championship prep mode right now where points are important to his team for weekly practice.

Dale EARNHARDT JR 20/1 - In 33 starts he has a 15.2 average finish that includes eight top-fives, but doesn't have a win yet. It's surprising because he has three wins each at Phoenix and Richmond. This season at Phoenix, after winning the fall race last year, he was fifth leading 34 laps. Still no wins on the season yet and this doesn't look like the place for him to break through despite being fifth last July.

Chase ELLIOTT 20/1 - The rookie was cruising with 11 top-10 finishes in his first 15 starts this season, but has been 21st or worse in his last three. This will be his first NHMS Cup start. He was eighth at Phoenix and 12th at Richmond.

Kyle LARSON 30/1 - He was third and second in his first two NHMS Cup runs in 2014, but dropped to 31st and 17th last season. In the seven races beginning with a runner-up at Dover, he's averaging an eighth-place finish between vastly different tracks. In other words, he's racing at his best right now and going to a track he's obviously very comfortable with. Being the 12th different winner this year wouldn't be a surprise, since it would be the first of his career.

Austin DILLON 60/1 - In four starts he has a 13.8 average finish with a best of eighth in this race last season.

Ryan NEWMAN 60/1 - This has always been a good track for him. His third win came in 2011 and he's led 722 laps over his career, second-most to Stewart. He a good driver to bet in match-ups and a solid fantasy choice if looking for a cheaper top-10 option.

Kasey KAHNE 60/1 - He had his best career NHMS run in 2012 with his only win and then a grabbing a fifth. He's only had one other top-five in 22 other starts. He's outside looking in to the Chase right now so this race is a little more important to him than other drivers. A win gets him in the Chase, but quality finishes weekly will do the job also.

Tony STEWART 60/1 - A three-time winner with a 12.5 average finish in 33 starts. His 13 top-fives and 1,302 laps led are both tops among active drivers. His last top-five was his 2011 win.

Ryan BLANEY 80/1 - Made his NHMS Cup debut in this race last season and finished 23rd. He was 10th at Phoenix in March.

Jamie McMURRAY 80/1 - Like Kahne, he's watching that Chase line where he's barely in at the moment as the 16th qualified driver. He's got four top-fives in 20 starts with a 20.4 average.

Greg BIFFLE 100/1 - The 2008 winner showed some upswing last fall with a fourth-place finish. He's also on the upswing in his last two races finishing a season-best eighth at Daytona and sixth Saturday night at Kentucky.

Ricky STENHOUSE JR 200/1 - A 22.7 average finish in six starts with a best of ninth in 2014.

Paul MENARD 200/1 - This has been a tough track for him over his career with no top-10s in 18 career starts -— only seven top-20s.

AJ ALLMENDINGER 300/1 - Career-best 10th in 2010 and was 13th in the race last year. Overall, he's averaged a 22nd-place finish in 14 starts.

Trevor BAYNE 300/1 - Like teammate Biffle, he's been strong the past two weeks as he's in contention for a Chase bid. He was third at Daytona and 11th at Kentucky. He made his NHMS Cup debut last season and was 32nd and 16th.

Aric ALMIROLA 300/1 - He had a career-best fifth in 2013 and then was sixth in 2014 dropping his career average to 21.3.

Clint BOWYER 300/1 - A two-time winner (2007, 2010) with 516 total laps led who had always performed his best on flat tracks. Those were the days.

Danica PATRICK 300/1 - Career-best 19th in 2014 and a 28.2 average in six starts.

Casey MEARS 500/1 - A 25.3 average over 26 starts.

Chris BUESCHER 1000/1 - Makes his NHMS Cup debut. His best finish this season has been 18th at Dover.

FIELD 500/1 - This race is top heavy with candidates to win so this betting option is virtually impossible to happen. The better bet is Kenseth, Edwards, Keselowski or Larson as a long shot.

Drivers to Watch - Loudon
By Sportsbook.ag

Brad Keslowski will be looking to win his third straight Sprint Cup race when the drivers compete at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday.

This race is a bit of an odd one, as it is the only one with the extra lap tagged on. It’s extremely rare that a race has a lap number that ends in anything other than a zero or a five, but it should be a fun one to watch and there are a number of stories to keep an eye on coming into it.

The main driver to watch out for is Tony Stewart, who has won this race twice in his career. He is just one victory shy of tying Jeff Burton for most wins ever in this race, but this is Stewart’s last chance to do so. He’ll be hungry for a victory on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch have also won this thing twice in their careers, though. They’ll both be just as motivated to get themselves that third victory, as they both have a real shot to finish their careers with a claim to be known as the king of New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Last year, Kyle Busch was the winner and it took him only 2:56:06. It was the second time in three years that a driver won with a car manufactured by Toyota. With that stuff out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the better picks to win this race on Sunday:

Drivers to Watch

Brad Keslowski (6/1) - Keslowski has had a ton of success at the New Hampshire 301, as he has now come in the top-five at each of the past four of these races. Keslowski finished in second a year ago and that followed up a first place finish in 2014. Not only has he done well on this track, but Keslowski also happens to be insanely hot coming into this race. He has emerged victorious at each of the past two Sprint Cup races and now finds himself ranked second in the Sprint Cup standings. He is in a serious groove right now and not picking him seems irresponsible heading into this weekend. Keslowski is a good value pick at +600 and pairing him up with some guys with better odds is probably the way to play this event.

Jimmie Johnson (8/1) - Jimmie Johnson has really been in a slump recently, finishing in 35th place at Daytona two races ago and following that up with a 32nd place finish in Kentucky last week. He also has just two top-five finishes in the past 10 races and that is very uncharacteristic of Johnson. Johnson had 14 top-five finishes a year ago and will be hoping to get back on track with a victory on Sunday. He should be feeling very confident in his ability to do so as well. As mentioned earlier, Johnson has won this race twice in his career. He emerged victorious in 2003 and 2010 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and these odds are very favorable for somebody with his success at the track.

Kurt Busch (18/1) - Busch has some seriously favorable odds coming into Sunday’s race and is somebody that must be considered this weekend. As previously mentioned, Busch won this race in 2008 and also back in 2004. He also happens to be having a pretty solid season thus far. Busch already has 15 top-10 finishes on the year and he won the Axalta We Paint Winners 400 back in early June. Usually a driver that has driven at such a high level on a certain track will not be getting odds like this. He’s worth putting a unit or two on, as it’s unlikely an opportunity like this will come by again in the Sprint Cup season.

Tony Stewart (60/1) - Stewart has frequently been a dark horse pick this season, but that is because he is one of the best Sprint Cup drivers ever and still has a little bit left in the tank. Although it’s Stewart’s final season, he is still trying to perform at a high level. As previously mentioned, Stewart has won this race twice in his career and this is one of his last two chances to win another at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Look for Stewart to give it his all on Sunday and don’t miss out on a prime opportunity to back him. Even putting a half-unit on Stewart at +6000 could pay off huge this weekend.

New Hampshire Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin takes a look at some notes and statistics for Sunday's New Hampshire 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at New Hampshire

• Matt Kenseth has finished ninth or better in five of the last six races, including two wins.
• Kyle Busch, the defending race winner, has finished second or better in four of the last six races.
• Brad Keselowski has posted a 5.5 average finish and has combined to lead 321 laps in the last four races.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top five in his last three starts, including a win in the 2014 fall race.
• Kevin Harvick has finished third in two of his last three starts and has combined to lead 379 laps in that span.
• Carl Edwards won both poles and posted top-10 finishes in the two races last season.

Who to Keep an Eye On at New Hampshire

• Denny Hamlin, who took part in the Goodyear Tire test, is coming off his first top five at New Hampshire since winning his second race there in 2012.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., who also took part in the tire test, has finished in the top 10 in his last four of his last five starts at New Hampshire. (UPDATE: Earnhardt Jr. will not compete this weekend after experiencing concussion-like symptoms. Alex Bowman will be the substitute driver.)
• Martin Truex has not finished worse than 12th in his four New Hampshire starts with Furniture Row Racing.
• Jimmie Johnson's only finishes outside the top seven in the last eight races at New Hampshire came in the last two July races.
• Kurt Busch and Chase Elliott have each finished in the top five in four of the last nine races of the 2016 season.
• Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. participated in the Goodyear tire test. Each driver has one top 10 in the last four New Hampshire races.
• Kyle Larson posted a 2.5 average finish in the two races at New Hampshire during his rookie season in 2014.
• Tony Stewart has posted a 12.9 average finish in his last nine New Hampshire starts, including a win in 2011.
• Ryan Newman is coming off his fifth top 10 at New Hampshire in the last 10 races, which includes a win in 2011.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Carl Edwards

Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races at New Hampshire

Matt Kenseth is coming off his second win at New Hampshire in six track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Brad Keselowski won this event in 2014 and leads all drivers with a 5.6 average finish in the last nine races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He also ranks second in laps led (323) in the last five races.

Kyle Busch won for the second time at New Hampshire in this event last year after leading 95 laps. The win extended a streak of five consecutive finishes of eighth or better, including three runner-up performances and a 3.0 average finish in that span. That streak of finishes was snapped last fall when he finished 37th after he had a right front tire go down in the middle of the corner.

Carl Edwards won the pole for both races last season and finished seventh and fifth, respectively, in his first track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Martin Truex Jr. is coming off his first top 10 (eighth) in four starts at New Hampshire with Furniture Row Racing. He finished 12th in each of his previous three starts.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 25th last fall at New Hampshire to snap a streak of four consecutive top 10s. Earnhardt participated in the Goodyear tire test on May 31-June 1. (UPDATE: Earnhardt Jr. will not compete this weekend after experiencing concussion-like symptoms. Alex Bowman will be the substitute driver.)

Ryan Newman has posted an 11.0 average finish in four starts at New Hampshire with Richard Childress Racing. One his two top 10s with the team at the track came in this event in 2014, in fifth. This weekend, Newman will return in the same car (chassis No. 527) that he finished 13th with in the All-Star Race.

Joey Logano has finished in the top five in his last three starts at New Hampshire, including a win in the 2014 fall race.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top five in two of the last five races at New Hampshire. His best finish in the July race in that five race span came in 2014, in 16th.

Greg Biffle is coming off his second top five in the last five races at New Hampshire. He won the fall race in 2008.

Kyle Larson posted at 2.5 average finish at New Hampshire during his rookie season in 2014. Last year he finished 31st and 17th, respectively.

Austin Dillon finished eighth in this event for his only top 10. His average finish is 13.8 in four starts. This weekend, Dillon will return in the same car (chassis No. 526) that he finished 26th with at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Denny Hamlin finished second last fall for his eighth top five at New Hampshire, which includes two wins (2007, 2012). Hamlin participated in the Goodyear tire test on May 31-June 1.

Kevin Harvick leads all drivers with 379 laps led in the last three races at New Hampshire. He finished third in two of those races and finished 21st last fall after running out of gas at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson's only finishes outside the top seven in the last eight races at New Hampshire came in the last two July races. Johnson, who scored his last of three wins at the track in this event in 2010, has yet to lead a lap in the last four races.

AJ Allmendinger has posted a 16.8 average finish in four starts with JTG Daugherty Racing at New Hampshire. His lone top 10 in 14 overall starts came in this event in 2010 with Richard Petty Motorsports.

Tony Stewart has posted 18 top 10s in 33 starts at New Hampshire, including three wins. His most recent top 10 came in this event in 2014, in seventh.

Kurt Busch has posted a 20.5 average finish in four starts at New Hampshire with Stewart-Haas Racing. He finished 10th in this event last year for his 12th top 10 in 30 overall starts. His last of three wins came in this event in 2008 with Team Penske. This weekend, Busch will pilot the same car (chassis No. 828) that he used in the preseason tire test at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Paul Menard has yet to post a top 10 in 18 starts at New Hampshire. His best finish in 10 track starts with Richard Childress Racing came in 2012, in 12th. This weekend, Menard will pilot the same car (chassis No. 547) that teammate Ryan Newman drove to a 10th-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Clint Bowyer has not finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at New Hampshire. Bowyer, who won the fall race in 2007 and 2010 with Richard Childress Racing, has only one top 10 on a non-restrictor plate track this season with HScott Motorsports.