Texas - Driver Tale of the Tape
Clint Bowyer 25/1 (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Three top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 15.455, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.316, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.0, 13th-best
· 163 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.105, 12th-fastest
· 4007 Laps in the Top 15 (54.7), 12th-most
· 671 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Kyle Busch 8/1 (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry
· Two wins, 11 top f ives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.591, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.734, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 102.4, third-best
· 414 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.843, second-fastest
· 5391 Laps in the Top 15 (73.5), sixth-most
· 792 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Kurt Busch 40/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· One win, three top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.292, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.411, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.8, 10th-best
· 215 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.130, 11th-fastest
· 4757 Laps in the Top 15 (59.5), 11th-most
· 785 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1 (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One win, six top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.870, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.447, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 93.2, fifth-best
· 307 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.617, fifth-fastest
· 5784 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1), fifth-most
· 979 Quality Passes, series-most
Chase Elliott 7/1 (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 4.500, series-best
· Average Running Position of 8.581, series-best
· Driver Rating of 100.8, fourth-best
· 17 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 174.114, series-fastest
· 563 Laps in the Top 15 (89.8 ), second-most
· 93 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Denny Hamlin 20/1 (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Two wins, five top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.000, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.516, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.4, eighth-best
· 188 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.322, eighth-fastest
· 4963 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7), seventh-most
· 918 Quality Passes, second-most
Kevin Harvick 7/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Six top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.500, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.725, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, ninth-best
· 196 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.567, 13th-fastest
· 5296 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2), ninth-most
· 900 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Jimmie Johnson 10/1 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Six wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.458, third-best
· Average Running Position of 10.299, third-best
· Driver Rating of 107.1, series-best
· 650 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.835, fourth-fastest
· 6247 Laps in the Top 15 (78.1), fourth-most
· 901 Quality Passes, third-most
Erik Jones 40/1 (No. 77 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)
· One top 15
· Average finish of 12.0, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.240, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.4, seventh-best
· 1 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.267, 10th-fastest
· 312 Laps in the Top 15 (93.4), series-most
· 40 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Kasey Kahne 40/1 (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.042, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.361, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.0, 12th-best
· 276 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· 5096 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7), 10th-most
· 862 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Matt Kenseth 15/1 (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Two wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.261, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.131, second-best
· Driver Rating of 104.7, second-best
· 395 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.838, third-fastest
· 6246 Laps in the Top 15 (81.5), third-most
· 871 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Brad Keselowski 6/1 (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· Four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.235, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.577, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.7, 11th-best
· 295 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.312, ninth-fastest
· 3007 Laps in the Top 15 (53.2), 13th-most
· 443 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Martin Truex Jr 6/1 (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)
· Three top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.826, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.350, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.0, sixth-best
· 216 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.542, sixth-fastest
· 5188 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7), eighth-most
· 735 Quality Passes, ninth-most
O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
We had a brief pit stop on the short track of Martinsville last weekend, which I absolutely loved, but now the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series goes back to another big track where the new low downforce package is once again going to have a major impact.
We've already seen races at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Fontana where a few drivers dominated and now we get out first look at Texas Motor Speedway's high-banked, 1.5-mile layout this weekend.
Let's briefly review what happened on the three similar tracks. In the second race of the season at Atlanta, Kevin Harvick led 292 of 325 laps, but had a pit road speeding penalty allowing Brad Keselowski to get the victory and Kyle Larson would finish second.
At Las Vegas in the third race, Martin Truex Jr. led 150 laps to get his first victory there. Keselowski led 89 laps and finished fifth and Larson finished second. At Fontana two weeks ago, Larson led 110 laps, Keselowski finished second, and Truex led 73 laps and finished fourth.
As you can tell, a couple of teams really have this package figured out and what's surprising is that none of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have made an impact. Matt Kenseth's third-place at Atlanta is the only top-five finish for JGR between the three tracks. Last season JGR won both Texas races with Busch winnig this spring race and Carl Edwards winning in the fall.
From a historical perspective, Jimmie Johnson has a track record six win at Texas in 27 starts and has led a track record 1,023 laps. His last win there was in the fall of 2015 which capped off a run of three straight wins there. He's yet to win this season and didn't have a top-five finish at Atlanta, Las Vegas or Fontana, all tracks where he had a great history with.
Kyle Busch has been the new Mr. Texas with two wins and an 11.5 average finish in 22 career starts. He's on a an incredible Texas run of having five straight top-five finishes and top-fives in seven of his last eight.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time Texas winner with a 9.4 average finish in 28 starts and has led 854 laps. Kevin Harvick has never won at Texas, but has averaged a fourth-place finish in his past five starts there. Dale Earnhardt Jr. won at Texas as a rookie, but has gone winless there in his last 27 starts. However, has has finished sixth or better in his past four starts there.
The driver I keep circling back to as a great candidate to win this week is a driver that has never won a Cup race. Chase Elliott has been close to winning several times, but has come up short. Last season at Texas he finished fifth in the spring and fourth in the fall. When I look at the two races on 1.5-mile tracks this season I see that he finished fifth at Atlanta and third at Las Vegas.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #24 Chase Elliott (8/1)
2) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
3) #78 Martin Truex Jr (8/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
Texas Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Note: The O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 will be the first Cup race on Texas's newly repaved surface, which includes re-profiling of Turns 1 and 2 - Read More
Who's HOT at Texas
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in his last five starts, including a win in this event last year.
• Jimmie Johnson has won five of the last nine races.
• Kevin Harvick is the only active driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last five races.
• Joey Logano posted a 2.5 average finish in both races last season and led 178 laps last fall.
• Chase Elliott has finished in the top five in his two starts.
• Brad Keselowski (winner at a 1.5-mile track this season) has finished in the top five three times and combined to lead 361 laps in the last five races.
• Martin Truex Jr. (winner at a 1.5-mile track this season) has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts and combined to lead 207 laps in the two races last season.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. (has yet to post a top 10 in 2017) has finished sixth or better in his last four starts.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Texas
• Kyle Larson finished second in both races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Austin Dillon, Ty Dillon, Logano, Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney and Harvick will each get extra track time this weekend as each of them will be competing in the XFINITY race. Both Cup and XFINITY will use the same tire set-up this weekend.
• Matt Kenseth (6.0), Kasey Kahne (8.0), Jamie McMurray (9.0) and Clint Bowyer (10.5) each rank in the top 10 in average finish at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Denny Hamlin, a two-time Texas winner, captured his best finish so far this season at a 1.5-mile track, finishing sixth at Las Vegas.
• Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch (has struggled in his last four starts this season) each finished in the top five last season at Kentucky, which was the first race on a new racing surface at that track.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Kyle Busch
Tyler Burnett: Chase Elliott
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Texas (Previous Track Surface)
Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in his last five starts at Texas, including a win in this event last spring. The win was his second in 22 overall starts. This season, Busch has yet to lead a lap or finish in the top 10 in the two races so far at 1.5-mile tracks.
Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with six wins and 1,023 laps led at Texas. His last victory came in the 2015 fall race, which marked his third straight. This season, Johnson ranks fourth in laps led (21) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks, but his best finish was 11th at Las Vegas.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished sixth or better in five of his last six starts at Texas. He's yet to lead a lap in his last 10 starts. Earnhardt finished 16th at Las Vegas, which is his best finish in the two races at 1.5-miel tracks this season.
Chase Elliott has finished in the top five his two starts at Texas. His best finish came last fall, fourth. This season, Elliott has also finished in the top five in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Kevin Harvick is the only active driver that has finished in the top 10 in the last five races at Texas. Harvick has combined to lead 110 laps in that span, but only has led one lap in the last two races. Harvick, who led a race-high 292 laps at Atlanta this season, also led a race-high 128 laps at Kentucky last season, which is the last 1.5-mile track to recently get repaved and reconfigured. This weekend, Harvick will debut a new chassis (No. 1038) in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.
Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in three of his last five starts at Texas. In the 2015 fall race he led a race-high 312 laps. This season, Keselowski has posted one win and a 3.0 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks. Last season, Keselowski led 75 laps and won at Kentucky Speedway, which is the last 1.5-mile track to recently get repaved and reconfigured.
Martin Truex Jr. has finished ninth or better in his last four starts at Texas. He combined to lead 207 laps last season, which leads all drivers in that span. This season, Truex has posted one win, led 150 laps and posted a 4.5 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks. Last season, Truex led 75 laps and finished 10th at Kentucky Speedway, which is the last 1.5-mile track to recently get repaved and reconfigured.
Jamie McMurray has posted three top 10s in his last five starts at Texas. This season, McMurray ranks eighth in average finish (9.0) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five starts at Texas. This weekend, Busch will return in the same chassis (No. 993) that he last finished 30th with at Las Vegas after experiencing electrical issues. Since Vegas, Busch has been in a slump, finishing 24th or worse.
Erik Jones finished 12th in his first Texas Cup start in 2015, driving for the suspended Matt Kenseth. This season, Jones has posted a 14.5 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks - finishing in the top 15 in both.
Joey Logano has finished in the top five in six of his last eight starts at Texas, including a win in this event in 2014. Last fall he led 178 laps and finished second. This season, Logano ranks fifth in average finish (5.0) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Ryan Newman has posted a 15.3 average finish in his six Texas starts with Richard Childress Racing. Newman scored his first top 10 with the team last fall, 10th.
Denny Hamlin is coming off his 11th top 10 in 22 starts at Texas. Hamlin has two wins at the 1.5-mile track when he swept both events in 2010.
Kasey Kahne has finished eighth in three of his last four starts at Texas. This season, Kahne ranks seventh in average finish (8.0) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Matt Kenseth is coming off his 18th top 10 in 28 starts at Texas. Kenseth's last of two wins at the 1.5-mile track came in 2011 with Roush Fenway Racing. This season, Kenseth ranks sixth in average finish (6.0) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks.
O'Reilly Auto Parts - Drivers to Bet
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Brad Keselowski will be looking to win back-to-back Monster Energy Cup Series races when the drivers compete in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday. The 33-year-old has already won two races this season, and he has placed inside the top five in five straight races. Now he’ll head to Fort Worth, where both Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch are the only active drivers to have won more than once. Busch is the defending champion coming into this year’s race, and he won behind the wheel of a Toyota last year. It was only the third time a Toyota driver has won this event. Ford is the manufacturer with the most success here, as the company has seen its drivers win this race 10 times. Roush Fenway Racing, meanwhile, is the team with the most success at the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. They have seven wins in this race, which is four more than both Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing, who are tied for second-most wins in this one. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who could be winning this one on Sunday:
Brad Keselowski (15-to-2) - As previously mentioned, Keselowski is on fire coming into this race. He has finished inside the top five in five straight races, and that just shows how dominant he is. He is consistently going to be in the running to win races, and that is just too valuable to pass up at this point. At 15-to-2, putting a unit or two on him is a wise decision. It also helps that he has never won this race in his career, so he will be hungry when he gets behind the wheel on Sunday.
Kyle Busch (15-to-2) - Busch is another guy that is getting 15-to-2 odds in this race, and he has a very good shot at winning. Busch was the winner of this race a year ago, finishing in 3:37:16. That time was a little worse than the 3:27:40 he posted in 2013, and he knows what it takes to get the job done in Fort Worth. Look for him to come into this race with a little extra hunger too. He finished in second at last week’s STP 500 and will definitely want to earn his first victory of the year in this one.
Matt Kenseth (18-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Matt Kenseth has won the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 twice in his career. He most recently won it in 2011, but he has had some decent finishes here in the past. Kenseth has finished inside the top 10 twice since then and he has only finished outside the top 20 once. Coming off of a ninth place finish at the STP 500, look for Kenseth to contend once again on Sunday. And at 18-to-1, he’s worth a half-unit or so.
Austin Dillon (50-to-1) - If you’re looking to take a dark horse in this race then Dillon is a guy that could pay out very nicely on Sunday. At 50-to-1, it would only take a quarter-unit or so for this pick to really change the outcome of a week, and Dillon has a good shot in this race. He is driving extremely well right now, as he came in fifth at the STP 500 last week. He has shown some serious improvement this season, and a win should be coming shortly.