Pepsi 500 News and Notes

Pepsi 500 preview
By Micah Roberts

This week we’re off to beautiful sunny California for the Labor Day weekend Sunday night Sprint Cup race. As much as I love having a race close to my home in Las Vegas, I’m still not happy with this race being in California at Darlington’s expense. The Southern 500 was an institution and something sacred on the annual NASCAR schedule. Without getting into the politics of why and how the dates moved, let’s just say money had a big part in the switch.

The irony of the whole move is that California Speedway and its parent company, International Speedway Corp., finally realized the mistake of putting the Labor Day race in California. ISC made a deal with bitter competitor Speedway Motorsports Inc. to switch dates giving Atlanta the Labor Day race beginning in 2009 and moving the California date to a cooler October date. Between folks vacationing elsewhere in California and the sweltering heat of Fontana in early September, the California facility never came close to selling out its 80,000, which is extremely small in capacity for NASCAR standards.

Atlanta should be weary of dealings with ISC, who is owned by NASCAR, because of past dealings. Just before the announcement that “The Chase” would be a new format in deciding who won the Championship, ISC thought it would make a nice offer and trade their Miami race with Atlanta because it rained a lot in November. Atlanta figured the final race of the season didn’t matter much because the Championship was usually decided by then, so why not trade with Miami? Real subtle and coincidental NASCAR.

Even though the Atlanta race is no longer a chase race, the move should work out well from them just because they aren’t competing with College Football when it’s at its peak interest with their fans. Between Georgia and Georgia Tech in their own state, NASCAR becomes 2nd banana on the weekends. When you mix in all the travelers from Northern Florida, who are busy as well with their top programs, it seems that Labor Day weekend is a good date for Atlanta as far as getting the most people to the track. Still, Somehow, I think NASCAR has something up its sleeve. Time will only tell.

The last time we visited California Speedway, it was in week 2, just a week before the Vegas race. Carl Edwards won both of those races and showed that he doesn’t have many equals on this type of track, which some call cookie-cutters. California Speedway is a big 2 mile track that is relatively flat compared other larger tracks and because of his success and current run, Edwards is the clear cut favorite this week at 9 to 2.

Edwards is creeping up on Kyle Busch on wins and on points. They have combined to win 14 of the 24 races this season which is almost criminal. When you look at the drivers that haven’t won a race this season because of these two pigging everything, it really shows how great their season has been.

In this race, Edwards will be tough to beat. We just saw him win two weeks ago in Michigan, California’s sister track which is almost identical. He’s also got momentum going for him, which normally doesn’t account for much, but at this stage for them it just means they are dialed in. Edwards also has the pedigree of being a Jack Roush drivers going for him at California. Roush has won at California with just about every driver he has had. Mark Martin, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and now Edwards have all won there.

The driver that could be added to that list this week is David Ragan who has value at 30 to 1. Should anything happen to the favorites like Edwards, Busch, or Jimmie Johnson, Ragan could be right there. He’ll have a car good enough to get a top 5, but beating those 3 will be a tough task. Jimmie Johnson won at California as a rookie in 2002 and has continued to have the best average finish there among all drivers with a 6.4 clip. Edwards is next followed Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and then Jeff Gordon. Gordon has 3 career wins there and would love to just get any win in 2008. Gordon’s quality finish last week let him breath a little easier as he tries to hold on to his 9th spot in standings with only 2 races to go in the Chase.

Without a doubt, Edwards is the best, but it can’t be that easy, can it? Let’s have some fuel mileage fun this week and get a guy a win for the first time this season. Matt Kenseth is likely to be a top 5 car all day, but he’ll need some kind of help to get in the winners circle. Because odds on the BIG 2 are so low, nice value can be found on the others. So let’s root for value and luck over quality and for an all around good guy in Matt Kenseth!

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1- #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
2- #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
3-#99 Carl Edwards (9/2)
4- #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5- #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)

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Sprint Cup - News and Notes
By Micah Roberts

Heated Rivalry

Kyle vs. Carl, I love it. I want to see the two best drivers in the series go at it. I want to see what happened at Bristol last week happen every week. Kyle says he owes Carl one and that it’s gonna happen. I didn’t think the bump at Bristol was too bad, Carl was just faster and that’s the type of stuff that happens there.

From a math standpoint and wagering, you don’t even have to read this anymore to get whatever kind of advice I offer. All you have to do is bet Edwards or Kyle every week. If you wagered $100 every week on each of them you’d be in for $4,800 investment. You would cash 14 times with odds varied. Just for simplicity we’ll say Edwards average price is 8/1 and Kyle’s price is 6/1.

After eight wins, Kyle would have a total take back of $5,600 while Edwards would get you back $5400. Subtract the initial $4800 investment and you have a nice payday. You could actually save $600 more by eliminating the Edwards wagers in road races and plate races.

California is home of NASCAR

Seven drivers call Cali home. Who would have ever thought that a state that far west would lead the league in drivers? AJ Allendinger (Los Gatos), David Gilliland (Riverside), Jeff Gordon (Vallejo), Robby Gordon (Orange), Kevin Harvick (Bakersfield), Jimmie Johnson (El Cajon), and Casey Mears (Bakersfield) all hail from the great state. Currently, there are 3 Californians in the Nationwide Series who could move that number even higher if promoted.

Earnhardt Jr and Johnson can clinch this Week

Two down, 10 to go. Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards have already clinched spots in the 2008 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – only 10 spots remain.

Two more will likely be filled this weekend in California, as Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson both only need finishes of 40th to lock up a spot. Jeff Burton also “controls his own destiny” this weekend.

Here are the clinch scenarios for those three drivers:

Earnhardt can lose 154 points to 13th place and still clinch a spot. But, regardless of any other driver’s finish, Earnhardt can clinch if he finishes:

40th or better
42nd and leads at least one lap
43rd and leads the most laps

Johnson can lose 152 points to 13th place and still clinch a spot. But, regardless of any other driver’s finish, Johnson can clinch if he finishes:

40th or better
41st and leads at least one lap
43rd and leads the most laps

Burton can lose 78 points to 13th place and still clinch a spot. But, regardless of any other driver’s finish, Burton can clinch if he finishes:

15th or better
17th and leads at least one lap led
18th and leads the most laps led

Six other drivers have an opportunity to clinch this weekend, but can’t clinch on their own – they’d need help in the form of a poor finish by those drivers around the 12th place bubble. Here are those scenarios:

Tony Stewart: Needs to gain 26 more points than the 13th-place driver at California.

Greg Biffle: Needs to gain 55 more points than the 13th-place driver at California.

Kevin Harvick: Needs to gain 67 more points than the 13th-place driver at California.

Jeff Gordon: Needs to gain 88 more points than the 13th-place driver at California.

Matt Kenseth: Needs to gain 118 more points than the 13th-place driver at California.

Denny Hamlin: Needs to gain 139 more points than the 13th-place driver at California.

Six Drivers Separated By 107 Points

This week, Clint Bowyer has the 12th and final potential Chase berth, but his position is precarious to say the least, merely 12 points ahead of 13th-place David Ragan and 56 ahead of 14th-place Kasey Kahne. On the “up-side”of the bubble, Denny Hamlin is in 11th, only 45 ahead of Bowyer. There you have it: only 101 points separating positions 11-14, only 56 separating 12th from 14th.

Burton to Run 500th Race This Weekend

Combining 16 years in the sport with an uncountable number of thoughtful quotes, Jeff Burton has become known as the “unofficial spokesman in the NASCAR garage.” This weekend, Burton celebrates 500 races in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. The first 499 have been impressive. In his career, Burton has 20 wins, 114 top fives, 205 top 10s and has finished in the top 10 in points seven times.

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Driver Highlights - California
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Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Auto Club Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last seven races at Auto Club Speedway. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford) 12/1
One win, two top fives
Average finish of 19.6
Average Running Position of 13.2, 10th-best
Driver Rating of 94.6, ninth-best
Series-high 137 Fastest Laps Run
544 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.804 mph, eighth-fastest
289 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge) 30/1
One win, three top fives, five top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 11.4
Average Running Position of 12.1, ninth-best
Driver Rating of 94.1, 10th-best
72 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
551 Green Flag Passes, third-most
1,283 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), seventh-most
320 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) 5/1
One win, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 10.3
Average Running Position of 9.1, third-best
Driver Rating of 109.9, third-best
117 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
Green Flag Speed of 172.143 mph, fourth-fastest
1,483 Laps in the Top 15 (84.5%), third-most
370 Quality Passes, tied for second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford) 9/2
One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 6.8
Average Running Position of 11.2, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 105.6, fourth-best
126 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.224 mph, second-fastest
1,344 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6%), fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) 16/1
Three wins, eight top fives; two poles
Average finish of 11.3
Average Running Position of 10.3, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 95.4, eighth-best
108 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
593 Green Flag Passes, second-most
1,331 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), fifth-most
Series-high 383 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) 6/1
Two wins, seven top fives
Average finish of 6.4
Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
Series-best Driver Rating of 114.7
129 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 172.481 mph
Series-high 1,630 Laps in the Top 15 (92.9%)
365 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge) 18/1
One win, three top five, six top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 13.7
Driver Rating of 98.4, seventh-best
93 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.796 mph, ninth-fastest
1,192 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), ninth-most
341 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford) 12/1
Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s
Average finish of 9.9
Average Running Position of 7.9, second-best
Driver Rating of 112.7, second-best
90 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.209 mph, third-fastest
1,521 Laps in the Top 15 (86.7%), second-most
299 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota) 11/1
Three top fives, seven top 10s
Average finish of 16.0
Average Running Position of 10.6, sixth-best
Driver Rating of 101.0, fifth-best
130 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.000 mph, sixth-most
1,319 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), sixth-most
335 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Pepsi 500 PreQ

A few weeks ago Carl Edwards stated he wanted to win the remaining race before the start of the Chase for the Championship. He had posted back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol and now heads into California Speedway as the top ranked driver on the PreQ forecast. Edwards has been on a role winning three of the last four races and took the checkered flag at the track earlier this season. In eight career starts at California he has just one finish outside the top 10 with a 7th place average finish. He will more than likely be the favorite heading into the Pepsi 500 by weeks end as well.

Matt Kenseth is considered to be ‘on the bubble’ to make the Chase. Which I guess technically he is. However, with California up next, Kenseth should be able to solidify himself in the Chase as he runs exceptionally well at the track. In 13 career starts he is averaging a 10th place finish with two wins and nine top 10s – including six straight. Kenseth has posted back-to-back top 10s and looks to be picking up steam at the right time. Roush Fenway Racing should be tough this weekend with all five drivers being competitive.

This has not been the season that Jimmie Johnson expected after coming off back-to-back championship seasons. That’s not to say that Johnson won’t be competitive once the Chase begins but it would be nice to see some consistency out of the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet team. Johnson has failed to post a top 10 in half of his starts this season with six finishes outside the top 20. This after having just six finishes outside the top 20 all of last season. Johnson does love this track, however, and can get back on his winning ways at California. In 11 career starts Johnson has posted seven top 3 finishes with two wins as he averages a 6th place finish. He is also the defending race champion. Expect Johnson to begin a run of successful finishes starting this weekend at California.

This has not been one of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s favorite tracks. In 13 career starts he is averaging a 20th place finish with just four top 10s. He ran poorly at this track earlier this season recording a 40th place finish – his worst finish of the season. Junior has also been struggling as of late posting just one top 10 in the last nine races with three finishes outside the top 20. Junior is struggling at the wrong time and it is doubtful he will be able to break his slump in the Pepsi 400. We recommend avoiding the #88 Mountain Dew Chevrolet for this race.

Casey Mears is on his way out of his ride with the #5 Kellogg’s Chevrolet. Mears has failed to show any of the production that Kyle Busch did a season ago in the car and has been lackluster with his overall performance with Hendrick Motorsports in his career. He has just four top 10s this season while ranking 24th in the point standings. He would like to get back on top of the scoring pylon but that is doubtful at California. In 10 career starts at the track he is averaging a 24th place finish with just two top 10s. Like junior, Mears had one of his worst performances of the season at California earlier this season recording a 42nd place finish. The end of the 2008 season cannot come soon enough for Mears.

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Pure Stats — Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Aug. 25, 2008) – Two races remain before the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, and a lot will happen between now and then. Some of the questions still unanswered:

Q: Should we expect any more fireworks from Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch?
A: Probably – and sooner rather than later. Both drivers are excellent at Auto Club Speedway, meaning both should run up front, and both could be battling for the win yet again. Both have a win there, and they rank three-four in Driver Rating at Auto Club Speedway. Busch is third with a 109.9 Driver Rating, while Edwards has a 105.6.

Q: Can David Ragan continue his unbelievable surge up the standings?
A: Who knows, and that’s the beauty of his season. Few could have predicted this. After the Daytona 500, Ragan was 42nd in the points standings. Two races later, he was in 19th. Now he’s in 13th, just 12 points out of the top 12. It could very well continue. All three of Ragan’s finishes at Auto Club Speedway have been in the top 20, and he has a solid Driver Rating of 77.4 there.

Q: Who can clinch this weekend?
A: Clinch Scenarios At California

Earnhardt, Johnson And Burton Could Clinch Chase Berths At Auto Club Speedway

Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Burton control their own Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup destiny this weekend. With certain Auto Club Speedway finishes – outlined below – they will join Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, who have already secured spots in the 2008 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

To clinch a Chase spot, a driver needs to leave Auto Club Speedway with a 196-point lead over 13th place.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Earnhardt is currently 350 points ahead of 13th place. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Earnhardt will clinch if he finishes:
• 40th or better
• 41st or 42nd and leads at least one lap

Jimmie Johnson
Johnson is currently 348 points ahead of 13th place. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Johnson will clinch if he finishes:
• 40th or better
• 41st and leads at least one lap

Jeff Burton
Burton is 274 points ahead of 13th place. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Burton will clinch if he finishes:
• 15th or better
• 16th or 17th and leads at least one lap
• 20th and leads the most laps

Six other drivers can clinch this weekend as well, but do not control their own destiny. Unlike Johnson, Earnhardt and Burton, all six must increase their current points lead over 13th place in Sunday’s race.
Below are those drivers who can mathematically reach the 196-point margin over 13th position this weekend:

Tony Stewart: Is 170 points ahead of 13th place and needs to pad his lead by 26 points.

Greg Biffle: Is 141 points ahead of 13th place and needs to pad his lead by 55 points.

Kevin Harvick: Is 129 points ahead of 13th place and needs to pad his lead by 67 points.

Jeff Gordon: Is 108 points ahead of 13th place and needs to pad his lead by 88 points.

Matt Kenseth: Is 78 points ahead of 13th place and needs to pad his lead by 118 points.

Denny Hamlin: Is 57 points ahead of 13th place and needs to pad his lead by 139 points.

Clint Bowyer, currently 12th in the series standings, cannot clinch a Chase position at Auto Club Speedway under any scenario, assuming David Ragan starts Sunday’s race.

Q: Any first time 2008 winners this weekend?
A: With two wins and a second-best Driver Rating at Auto Club Speedway of 112.7, Matt Kenseth could nab his first win of 2008.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top 12 at Auto Club Speedway

Driver Races Poles Wins Top Fives Top 10s DNFs Average Finish Driver Rating

1 Kyle Busch 8 1 1 3 6 0 10.3 109.9
2 Carl Edwards 8 1 1 6 7 0 6.8 105.6
3 Dale Earnhardt Jr 13 0 0 3 4 4 21.4 73.7
4 Jimmie Johnson 11 0 2 7 7 0 6.4 114.7
5 Jeff Burton 16 0 0 5 6 1 15.8 92.8
6 Tony Stewart 14 0 0 3 7 2 16.0 101.0
7 Greg Biffle 11 0 1 2 2 2 19.6 94.6
8 Kevin Harvick 12 0 0 0 3 1 19.1 85.9
9 Jeff Gordon 16 2 3 8 8 2 11.30 95.4
10 Matt Kenseth 13 0 2 5 9 0 9.9 112.7
11 Denny Hamlin 5 0 0 0 1 0 17.8 82.5
12 Clint Bowyer 5 0 0 1 2 0 12.4 84.1

Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Auto Club Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last seven races at Auto Club Speedway. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• One win, two top fives
• Average finish of 19.6
• Average Running Position of 13.2, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 94.6, ninth-best
• Series-high 137 Fastest Laps Run
• 544 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.804 mph, eighth-fastest
• 289 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One win, three top fives, five top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.4
• Average Running Position of 12.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.1, 10th-best
• 72 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 551 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• 1,283 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), seventh-most
• 320 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 9.1, third-best
• Driver Rating of 109.9, third-best
• 117 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Green Flag Speed of 172.143 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,483 Laps in the Top 15 (84.5%), third-most
• 370 Quality Passes, tied for second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 6.8
• Average Running Position of 11.2, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 105.6, fourth-best
• 126 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.224 mph, second-fastest
• 1,344 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6%), fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Three wins, eight top fives; two poles
• Average finish of 11.3
• Average Running Position of 10.3, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.4, eighth-best
• 108 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 593 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• 1,331 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), fifth-most
• Series-high 383 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, seven top fives
• Average finish of 6.4
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
• Series-best Driver Rating of 114.7
• 129 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 172.481 mph
• Series-high 1,630 Laps in the Top 15 (92.9%)
• 365 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
• One win, three top five, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.7
• Driver Rating of 98.4, seventh-best
• 93 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 171.796 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,192 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), ninth-most
• 341 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 9.9
• Average Running Position of 7.9, second-best
• Driver Rating of 112.7, second-best
• 90 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.209 mph, third-fastest
• 1,521 Laps in the Top 15 (86.7%), second-most
• 299 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• Three top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 16.0
• Average Running Position of 10.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 101.0, fifth-best
• 130 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 172.000 mph, sixth-most
• 1,319 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), sixth-most
• 335 Quality Passes, sixth-most

At Auto Club Speedway:

History
• Groundbreaking for Auto Club Speedway took place in November 1995.
• The first race was a NASCAR West Series race won by Ken Schrader on June 21, 1997.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on June 22, 1997 and won by Jeff Gordon.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide Cup race was held on Oct. 19, 1997, won by Todd Bodine.
• The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race was won by Mike Bliss on Oct. 18, 1997.
• September 2004 was the first night race and was also the first year there were two races a year for both the NASCAR Sprint Cup and NASCAR Nationwide Series.
• 2005 was the first time the first Auto Club Speedway race was a triple-header with all three major NASCAR series competing.
• The track name was changed from California Speedway to Auto Club Speedway in February 2008.

Notebook
• There have been 16 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Auto Club Speedway since the track opened in 1997.
• Five drivers have competed in all 16 Auto Club races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Joe Nemechek and Kyle Petty.
• Joe Nemechek won the pole for the inaugural race in 1997. Greg Sacks broke Nemechek’s short-lived, track-qualifying record in the second round of qualifying.
• There have been 11 different pole winners, led by Kurt Busch (three) and Jeff Gordon (two) Qualifying was canceled in 1999 and 2008-1.
• 12 different drivers have posted victories at Auto Club Speedway. Jeff Gordon (three), Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth (two) are the only multiple race winners there.
• Hendrick Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing have each won six races, more than any other organization.
• Eight of the 16 races were won from outside the top 10 starting positions.
• Matt Kenseth won the 2006 sprint race from the 31st starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.

Hot Fact

Mark Martin has seven top-10 finishes, including one victory, in 15 races at California. He also failed to finish three times. One of Martin’s DNFs was his first top-10, when he ran out of gas on the final lap of the inaugural race in 1997, yet still finished 10th.

Auto Club Speedway Data

Race # 25 of 36 (8-31-08)
Track Size: 2 miles
Race Length: 250 laps/500 miles
Banking/Corners: 14 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 11 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 3 degrees

Driver Rating at Auto Club Speedway

Jimmie Johnson 114.7
Matt Kenseth 112.7
Kyle Busch 109.9
Carl Edwards 105.6
Tony Stewart 101.0
Mark Martin 98.5
Kasey Kahne 98.4
Jeff Gordon 95.4
Greg Biffle 94.6
Kurt Busch 94.1
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (7 total) at Auto Club Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data

2007 pole winner: Kurt Busch (182.399 mph, 39.474 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (131.502 mph, 9-2-07)
Track qualifying record: Kyle Busch (188.425 mph, 38.248 seconds, 2-25-05)
Track race record: Jeff Gordon (155.012 mph, 6-22-97)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage

backstretchmotorsports.com

Pepsi 500 Driver Rating

Jimmie Johnson will be looking for his third career victory at Auto Club Speedway in this weekend’s Pepsi 500 in Fontana, California. Johnson heads NASCAR’s driver stats with an Average Driver Rating of 114.7. In eleven career Sprint Cup Series starts in Fontana, Johnson has never finished lower than 16th. He has recorded three consecutive top 5s dating back through the 2007 season. Johnson is 4th in the series standings, but is only two points behind teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Expect a very strong showing from Johnson this weekend.

After the fireworks last weekend at Bristol, NASCAR placed Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch and on probation for the next six weeks. Edwards summed up both drivers feelings after the incident. "I feel like I was extremely justified to do what I did," Edwards said. "I needed to do it, and that's the way it went. I'm not apologizing for it, and that's it." Even with NASCAR watching to duo closely, expect both to be battling for the win this week. In eight career races at Fontana, Edwards has seven top 10s, and an incredible six top 5s. He has become dominant on the “cookie-cutter” tracks and should be in the top 5 at the close of the race. Likewise, Busch has six consecutive top 10s, including a win in 2005. Busch is beginning to lose momentum to Edwards and will need two solid runs at California and Richmond to remain the favorite headed into the Chase.

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Pepsi 500 HOT! Sheet

One of the steady risers in the points report lately has been Jamie McMurray. Over the course of the last five events, he has an average finish of about 10th. His best run in that span came at the Brickyard when he was among the leaders all day and wound up a season high 6th. Also included in there are impressive performances at Pocono (41st to 9th) and most recently last week at Bristol (41st to 12th). He led a couple of laps at this track earlier this season, so look for the success to continue.

If there is one certain thing, it’s the fact that Tony Stewart really wants to win again before stepping out of the #20 car for good at the end of this season. It almost happened at back-to-back races when he finished runner up at both Pocono and Watkins Glen. He followed those up with a solid 12th at Michigan. Then under the lights at Bristol he came from 28th up to 8th. This time of year is usually when he really heats up so he is a must have on your roster.

We could say the same about Kevin Harvick. The #29 car has finished inside the top 10 in five of the last six races. The only blemish came at Indianapolis when he was one of the many that were bitten by the tire conditions and he ended up 37th. Since then he has a 5.5 average finish. Last Saturday he had clear sight of the leader the whole night and went home 4th. He, too, is longing for those bonus points for a victory so add him if you can.

His teammate in the #31 car, Jeff Burton, has been going the opposite direction. He has only one top 10 finish in the last ten races (9th at the Brickyard). In the last four weeks he has an average finish of about 23rd. Even when he starts well, something seems to happen. That was illustrated when he went from 5th to 17th at the Glen. Last week, he had worked his way into the top 10 but was bumped into the big wreck that sent him home 42nd. Until he starts looking like he did earlier in the season, you may want to stay away.

Dropping just as fast lately is Kasey Kahne. His bad stretch started on the road course when he started in the top 10 but faded back to 14th. Then at Michigan, things were horrible from the second they unloaded the #9 car as he started 32nd and then had his engine give way which resulted in a 40th place showing. That was duplicated last week when he was also involved in that big accident. He won this race just two years ago, so we’re not saying bench him. But he gets the “buyer beware” label this week.

profantasysports.com

Driver Handicaps: Auto Club
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Auto Club Speedway for Sunday's Pepsi 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 250-lap event.

Who's HOT at the Auto Club Speedway
• Roush Fenway Racing - Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have combined to win four of the last seven races.
• Hendrick Motorsports - Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson each have multiple wins, with Gordon's three leading all drivers.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in his last six starts.
• Kasey Kahne has finished 10th or better in five of his last six starts.

Keep an Eye on at the Auto Club Speedway
• David Ragan finished third two weeks ago at ACS' sister track - Michigan.
• Martin Truex Jr. is coming off two consecutive sixth-place finishes at ACS.
• Brian Vickers and Tony Stewart have respective finishes of 7.3 and 8.0 on 2-mile tracks this season.
• Kurt Busch has one win and an 11.4 average finish at ACS.
• Kevin Harvick is coming off four consecutive finishes of eighth or better in August.

Track Performers
Jeff Gordon leads all active full-time drivers with five wins, 29 top 10s, eight poles and 1,479 laps led on 2-mile speedways. Carl Edwards, who has made 17 starts, holds the best finishing average on 2-mile tracks at 6.4. Matt Kenseth is second in average at 9.8 and Jimmie Johnson (10.8), Gordon (11.4) and David Ragan (13.1) round out the top five.

Auto Club Speedway Rookie Report
Regan Smith was the top finishing rookie at Auto Club Speedway in February after taking the checkered flag in 31st. Sam Hornish Jr. was the only current rookie contender that competed in the race, but he finished 43rd after getting caught up in a lap 20 accident. Dario Franchitti, who will not be in this weekend's Cup race, finished 32nd and Patrick Carpentier failed to make the race after weather wiped out qualifying. Rookie Standings

Qualifying Tidbits
Last September, Kurt Busch became the first driver to win three poles at Auto Club Speedway. Busch's brother, Kyle, set the qualifying record at 188.425 mph driving in the 2005 February event. Ford's last pole at California came in the September 2005 race with Carl Edwards. Kasey Kahne, the 2004 February pole winner, holds the best starting average among all drivers with two or more starts at 8.6. Eight of the 16 races have been won from outside the top 10 and no one has yet to win from the pole.

RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Matt Kenseth
Pete Pistone: Kasey Kahne
Rachael West: Greg Biffle
Kym Opalenik: Jimmie Johnson

Top 20 Driver Notes - Based on Current Standings

1. Kyle Busch: Early in his driving career, Busch had some trouble at Auto Club Speedway. He made his debut at the track in this event in 2004, finishing 24th after starting 18th. The following spring, he captured the pole position for the race, but only led three laps en route to a 23rd-place finish. But in the fall of 2005, the tide turned for Busch at California. In that event, he led 95 laps en route to his first career Cup victory. Since then, he has posted five consecutive top 10s and combined to lead 131 laps. In Feburary, Busch finished fourth in his first start at ACS with Joe Gibbs Racing.

2. Carl Edwards: Edwards has finished sixth or better in seven of his eight starts at Auto Club Speedway. In his last start, this past Feburary, he won after leading 64 laps from the ninth starting position. The win lowered his overall average finish to 6.8. This weekend Edwards will drive the same car (chassis No. Rk-558) that he won with at Las Vegas.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Earnhardt Jr. finished 40th in his debut with Hendrick Motorsports at Auto Club Speedway. the finish, which came after getting caught up in an early wreck, raised his overall finishing average to 21.4. In Junior's previous 12 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. he captured four top 10s. His best finish came in this event in 2006 when he placed second. This weekend Earnhardt Jr. will pilot that same car (chassis No. 488) that he won with at Michigan in June.

4. Jimmie Johnson: This weekend Johnson returns to the site of his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win, which was scored back on April 28, 2002, in his first start at Auto Club Speedway. Since then, Johnson has finished no worse than 16th and has four second-place finishes and another win last September. In both of his victories, Johnson led a combined 146 of his track total of 295 laps. On Sunday, pending he's not forced to a back-up, Johnson will be behind the wheel of the same car (chassis No. 504) that finished sixth at Pocono in June.

5. Jeff Burton: Burton has made eight starts with Richard Childress Racing at Auto Club Speedway. In three of the last five races Burton has finished in the top five, including two consecutive fourth-place finishes in 2007. Burton's other three top-10 finishes came with Roush Racing from 1998-2000. His career best was a runner-up finish in 1999. This weekend Burton will return in the car (chassis No. 255) that finished 11th at Michigan two weeks ago.

6. Tony Stewart: Stewart has recorded an average finish of 9.3 in his last four races at Auto Club Speedway. Stewart saw his worst finish (43rd) at ACS come in the 2006 February race after the No. 20 Chevrolet lost an engine on lap 214. His best finishes at the track came in 1999 and 2001 with a pair of fourth-place efforts. In the 2005 September race, Stewart scored his third top five with a fifth-place finish. Stewart dominated the 2003 event, leading three times for 100 laps, before a connecting rod broke within the engine, giving him a 41st-place finish. This weekend Stewart will go after his second consecutive top 10 at the track by driving a new car (chassis No. 212) that was tested at Charlotte and Pocono.

7. Greg Biffle: Biffle won his first Sprint Cup race at Auto Club Speedway in the 2005 February race. He led 46 laps en route to the win and it was his first finish of 13th or better in five starts at the 2-mile speedway. He followed the win up with another top-five, a runner-up finish after leading 16 laps. In the 2006 February race, Biffle looked to be the man to beat again. Coming off a win in the Nationwide race on Saturday, Biffle dominated the Cup race, leading 168 laps before a part failure took him out of the race. In the last four races, Biffle has posted an average finish of 17.8. This weekend Biffle will be piloting the same chassis (No. RK-571) that finished 20th at Michigan in June.

8. Kevin Harvick: Auto Club Speedway is one of three tracks on the circuit where Harvick has yet to post a top-five finish. In seven out of 12 races at the 2-mile speedway, Harvick has failed to finish inside the top 15. His best performance (sixth) came in the 2005 February race. Earlier this year he scored his third top five with an eighth-place finish.

9. Jeff Gordon: Gordon is one of three drivers that have scored multiple victories at Auto Club Speedway. His three victories, eight top fives, and 525 laps led currently leads all drivers. His finishing average (11.3) is the best among all drivers that have competed in every event since 1997. This past Feburary Gordon led 68 laps en route to a third-place finish.

10. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has won 2006 and 2007 February race and has finished seventh in the last three Labor Day events at Auto Club Speedway. His 9.9 average finish leads all drivers that have made more than 12 starts at the track and his 383 laps led is only second to Jeff Gordon. Kenseth, who also has won four Nationwide races at Fontana, will be racing the same car (chassis No. RK-550) that finished seventh at Chicago in July.

11. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is coming off his worst finish (41st) at Auto Club Speedway after hitting water on the track, which sent him into the wall on lap 15. he finished 19th in this event last season after cutting a tire under caution late in the race. His only top 10 in five starts came in the 2006 September race when he finished sixth. In the 2007 Feburary event, Hamlin flew through the field early in the race to move from 17th to third before handling issues became an issue. He wound up finishing 11th. This weekend Hamlin will debut a new car (chassis No. 222).

12. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer's finishing average at Auto Club Speedway slipped to 12.4 after finishes of 20th and 19th, respectively. Bowyer's lone top five at ACS came in the event in 2006. This weekend Bowyer will race chassis No. 237 for the fourth time this season. The best finish for the car came at Atlanta in sixth.

13. David Ragan: Auto Club Speedway is Ragan's third-best track on the circuit where he has raced more than once based on his 14.0 average finish. His best finish came in this event last season in 12th. This weekend Ragan will make his fourth start at ASC in a new chassis (No. RK-615).

14. Kasey Kahne: In the 2006 September race, Kahne scored his first win at Auto Club Speedway after leading 130 laps from the ninth starting position. The win marked his third consecutive finish of sixth or better. Kahne's DNF the 2007 Feburary race marked only his second finish outside the top 15 in nine starts. In his first two starts, Kahne led a combined 116 laps, won a pole and posted a finishing average of 7.5. This past Feburary, Kahne finished ninth in his first start at the track with the COT.

15. Ryan Newman: This weekend Newman will make his 12th start at Auto Club Speedway. In his previous starts at the speedway, Newman has posted four top-10 finishes - his last coming in February's race. He won the pole in his first start at the track in 2002 and has gone on to post a total of four more starts of ninth or better. His worst finish, of 42nd, came in the 2003 race when a crash took him out of contention.

16. Brian Vickers: Vickers has posted an average finish of 9.7 in his three starts at Auto Club Speedway with Team Red Bull. His previous six starts at the 2-mile track came with Hendrick Motorsports where he posted one pole and one top-five finish. In the three starts on 2-mile tracks in 2008, Vickers has an average finish of 7.3.

17. Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr. suffered a disappointing DNF, resulting in a 42nd-place finish, at Auto Club Speedway in the 2007 Feburary race due to engine problems. He rebounded in the last two events by scoring his first two top 10s in five starts with a pair of sixth-place finishes.

18. Jamie McMurray: McMurray's worst finishes at Auto Club Speedway have come in the last four events, which resulted all outside the top 15. His best finish with Roush Fenway Racing came in his first track start with the team in 2006 when he scored his fifth overall top 10 with a sixth-place finish. His previous five starts came with Chip Ganassi Racing where he posted an average finish of 7.2. This weekend McMurray will pilot the same car (chassis No. RK-603) that finished sixth at Indianapolis.

19. Kurt Busch: In 12 Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway, Busch has captured one victory, three top fives and five top-10 finishes. He also has started from the pole in three out of the last five events. Busch has made five California starts with Penske Racing and has posted an average finish of 14.4 in that span. This weekend Busch will be racing the same car (chassis No. PSC-554) that has posted an average finish of 22.3 in three starts this season. The average is hampered by a 40th-place finish after an early-race crash in the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard.

20. Elliott Sadler: This weekend will mark Sadler's fifth Auto Club Speedway start with Gillett-Evernham Motorsports. His best finish with the team came in the September 2006 race when he led eight laps and finished 13th. Sadler posted his first top-20 finish at California in seven races when he drove the Robert Yates Racing Ford to victory in the 2004 Labor Day event. He followed the win up with his second top-10 finish (8th) in the 2005 February event. His average finish (22.6) is the worst among all active drivers that have at least one victory at the speedway.

Fantasy Picks 'N' Pans: Is It Roush Fenway Racing's Time To Shine At California?
Bryan Davis Keith and Mike Neff

California is the penultimate race in the “regular season” leading up to the Chase for the Cup, and the two-mile facility that is the sister track to Michigan will bring the playoff picture into much better focus. Some drivers will find themselves locked in, with several “clinch” scenarios in play — while other drivers will be eliminated no matter how well they run over the course of Sunday night.

With all sorts of different scenarios in play, the decision for gamers is to figure out whether their driver will play it conservative to avoid taking a major hit in points; or, will they go for broke to take the chance of cementing themselves into the Chase? Besides that, there’s the matter of sorting out which drivers eliminated from contention are capable of positioning themselves for a strong run at the end of the season versus going through a whole set of experimental struggle for next year.

And we haven’t even gotten to the burning questions that linger after the race at Bristol this week. Could this weekend be another chapter in the Carl Edwards vs. Kyle Busch epic? Can Roush Fenway racing duplicate their dominance from Michigan? Has Denny Hamlin shaken off the bad luck that’s haunted him all year? Can Jimmie Johnson turn around his luck from the last two weeks? All of it’s enough to make your head spin; but Picks ‘N’ Pans can keep you from spinning out as you prep for your own playoff run. Read on for this week’s Picks ‘N’ Pans to see which drivers should be on your roster, and which ones should be on Rodeo Drive looking for Gucci handbags instead.

Bryan’s Race Rewind:

Though the Busch Brothers each made strong runs to score victories in California, in the end hometown hero Jimmie Johnson scored the win on Labor Day Weekend last September — his fifth of the season. Johnson’s victory capped a solid performance by Hendrick Motorsports, who put three cars in the Top 15 and led over half the laps in the 500-mile event. A hard-charging Carl Edwards scored a runner-up finish and carried the banner for Roush Fenway Racing, who had themselves a disappointing day at a track where they’re usually strong. Other than Edwards, only Matt Kenseth finished in the Top 10 for the team. The other organization making waves was Team Red Bull, as Brian Vickers scored a ninth place finish while teammate A.J. Allmendinger finished 18th, his first career Top 20. DEI drivers Martin Truex, Jr. and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. each scored Top 10 finishes, although Earnhardt’s run would come too little, too late for him to be in position to make the Chase.

Mike’s Keys to the Race:

California is a wide open track offering drivers multiple racing grooves to make their car work. Just like Michigan, there will be cars running from the bottom all the way to the top… and everywhere in between. The transition from day to night will be a challenge for the teams keeping up with the track, and it’ll be difficult to make their car handle well enough to stay near the front the whole time. But this is one race track where the car get all spread out rather quickly — making it one of the easier ones to pass on.

As for what teams to watch for, expect to see Roush Fenway Racing near the front despite their struggles at this facility last year. You’ve got to consider their strong showing at Michigan two weeks ago, Edwards’ win here in February, and their general affinity for the two mile tracks will put them over the top. Also, expect to see the Gibbs and Hendrick cars running at the head of the pack as well.

Mike’s Picks:

Crank ‘Em Up:

He may have had a late loss at Bristol, but Kyle Busch is still one of the two hottest drivers on the circuit. He still led the most laps last weekend, and has finished first or second the last three weeks on tour. Remember, Busch’s first win at the Cup level came at Fontana, and he’s been in the Top 10 there the last six races in a row. Being locked into the Chase and trying to acquire more bonus points over the next two weeks should allow him to run all out for wins.

Greg Biffle is making his final push for the Chase, and he’s been running well over the last month, finishing 5th or better at the last two intermediate tracks. He’s also in Roush Fenway equipment, the class of the field when it comes to the 2-mile tracks on the schedule. A strong run this weekend would go a long way toward cementing Biffle’s place in the Chase, and it will make the race at Richmond much easier for him — especially considering he’s not a short track ace. Look for Biffle to be focused and motivated this weekend, making him the perfect pick to finish off your fantasy roster.

Sit ‘Em Down:

Clint Bowyer has had a very up and down season this year, and the peaks and valleys have corresponded to the types of tracks that he’s been running on. In particular, the intermediate facilities have been where Bowyer’s stuck in a rut, and California falls right into that dreaded category for the No. 07. Although Harvick ran well at Michigan, the RCR cars for the majority of the year have struggled mightily on these types of tracks, and this weekend shouldn’t be any different for Bowyer — even with him on the bubble at 12th in points.

David Gilliland has had some great runs for Yates Racing this year, but most of them came in the first half of the season. He’s struggled since June, finishing 20th or worse every race since Infineon, with half of those finishes 34th or worse. His record at California has been just as unimpressive, with an average finish of 24.8 driving the No. 38 Ford. Considering Gilliland was 26th at Michigan and 42nd at Chicago, all the pieces add up to him not really doing much of anything impressive this weekend.

Roll the Dice:

David Ragan is on the verge of making the Chase, and this weekend could be where he makes it into the Top 12 in points. Ragan had a chance to win at Michigan — a very similar track to California — and he’s been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this year. This weekend is probably the closest thing to a sure bet that you can make with Ragan.

Bryan’s Picks:

Crank ‘Em Up:

Move over, Kyle Busch: Carl Edwards is now the hottest driver in NASCAR, and a visit to Fontana is only going to heat the No. 99 team up even further. Edwards has made eight starts at Auto Club Speedway, and along with a pole and a win has scored seven Top 10s in those events. His career average finish at the track is 6.8, with a runner-up finish and a win in his last two starts. And if that’s not enough to convince you, Edwards and his No. 99 have been stellar on the intermediate race tracks this season, and are currently on a huge tear with back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol. Edwards was the class of the field at the Michigan race earlier this month, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be again this weekend. Not only will I call upon fantasy gamers to start Edwards… I will call on Edwards to win and win convincingly on Sunday night.

Roush Fenway Racing is on top of its game right now, and right alongside his teammate Carl Edwards Matt Kenseth is riding a huge wave of momentum into Fontana. Kenseth clawed his way back into Chase contention over the summer, and is coming off of back-to-back Top 10 finishes at a track where he has enjoyed tremendous success. Kenseth has six consecutive Top 10 finishes at Fontana, including two wins, making it just the track for him to cement the Chase berth he’s striven so hard for these last few months. Kenseth is one of those drivers who just has to break through before too much longer, and if anyone can challenge Busch and Edwards at the front of the field this weekend, it’s him.

Sit ‘Em Down:

Bobby Labonte just hasn’t had the magic on 1.5 and 2-mile tracks that he used to have in his career. Outside of a 16th place at the Indianapolis Fiasco 400, Labonte has struggled royally in his last five intermediate starts, posting finishes of 31st and 27th at Michigan, 33rd at Pocono, and 29th at Chicago. Labonte’s No. 43 team had a mediocre 25th place run at Fontana in February, the latest in a disappointing stretch of races there for the veteran. His last Top 10 finish at this track came way back in 2004, and that’s not a streak I’d expect to end this weekend.

Joining Labonte in his struggles on the intermediate tracks is Juan Pablo Montoya, whose No. 42 team’s performance has dropped off considerably since the start of the season. Montoya has struggled with this configuration of oval in his entire stock car career, as he has never cracked the Top 15 at either Fontana or the sister track in Brooklyn, Michigan. Montoya’s 20th place run at Fontana in February was his best ever performance there, and his 26.3 average career finish should not inspire the confidence of fantasy gamers. For this Colombian, Fontana is no Infineon; and expect his results to show that over the course of this weekend.

Roll The Dice:

Even last year — when Team Red Bull was still undergoing major growing pains — Brian Vickers and his No. 83 team had Fontana figured out. After missing the Daytona 500 in 2007, Vickers scored a Top 10 at Fontana the next week. He followed that run up with an eighth place run in the September race, and had a solid 11th place finish in the February 2008 event. Vickers and his teammate A.J. Allmendinger have been at their best all season on the circuit’s intermediate venues, and with the Chase all but out of the question for the No. 83 team, getting Team Red Bull their first Cup win will be the only priority left. There’s no question Vickers will visit Victory Lane by season’s end — and with a little luck, he may just get it done Sunday night.

frontstretch.com

Pepsi 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards had better be on their best behavior as they are now on six races probation by NASCAR officials for a post-race incident involving the two drivers and it all starts this week at California Speedway for the penultimate race before the Chase begins as Edwards will look for a season sweep at Fontana this Sunday, at 7 p.m. for the Pepsi 500.

Last time NASCAR raced at California Speedway it took more than 24 hours to complete the race and Busch moved into the Sprint Cup points lead by virtue of a pair of fourth-place finishes. Edwards comes to California arguably the hottest driver on the Sprint Cup, winning three of the last four races. The question is can Edwards repeat the success he had at California in February?

Who will win the Pepsi 500?

Concrete Carl certainly earned his moniker as he won on concrete for the ninth time in his career at Bristol. Edwards was unable to make up significant ground in the points since Busch finished the Sharpie 500 in second place. It would have been beneficial for Edwards if Hamlin had held off Busch for third so he could shave the gap by more than 10 points. But it's certainly better than losing. And with his sixth win of the season Edwards gets 10 more bonus points, which means if the Chase for the Sprint Cup were to start today (it starts in two races) then Edwards would be a scant 30 bonus points behind Busch.

In his last two races Edwards has coincidently led both races exactly 84 laps. In fact it was mentioned during the Sharpie 500 in which Kyle Busch led for a whopping 415 laps that the driver who has led the most laps at Bristol never wins the race. And that is exactly what happened. Despite his controversial pass of Bush thirty laps from the finish Edwards utilized the bump-n-run well and raced cleanly. Busch, for his part, got in a retaliation nudge a few laps later but it wasn't enough to get him past the No. 99 car. During the cool-down lap Busch let the anger get the better of him and purposely bumped in Edwards and the checkered flag! This action got both drivers put on probation for the next six races.

Certainly Edwards must be feeling confident now going into California. He ran a great race at Bristol (despite what Kyle thinks) and having already won in California this year is in good position to win his fourth race in five weeks. And looking at the field it is hard to see anyone other than Busch beating him on Sunday night.

This is in direct contradiction to what I felt last week, but perhaps I'm starting to believe now. Last week I didn't believe that either Kyle Busch or Edwards would win and now it is hard for me not to see one of them winning the next 12 races. Of course the other drivers aren't exactly going to give the races to Busch or Edwards, but watching the races it barely seems like anyone else actually wants to win them. Busch and Edwards have combined to win 14 races this year.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (7/2)

Solid Gold Picks

Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Pepsi 500 this weekend. Bristol was like rolling a drunk and I cashed three units backing Clint Bowyer at -1.15. Truex, Jr., had troubles all day starting at lap 97 when he was battling for 15th place with AJ Allmendinger and blew a front tire. Four laps were the closest he got to the lead lap. Bowyer did his best to provide a scare when he got involved with the 10-car wreck at lap 217 but managed to scrape out a top-10 finish and cash our biggest play of the season. Now my record Over-the-Wall stands at 13-13 and +2.30 units on the season after 24 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed.

Long Odds Pick

This week is going to be another Rousch Fenway Racing weekend as they have been doing well on the 2-mile. Two weeks ago they raced at Michigan, a similar style course although Michigan is an oval and California Speedway is a tri-oval. However, RFR was dynamite at Michigan's two weeks ago as they finished four drivers in the top-five; Edwards first, Ragan third, Biffle fourth and Kenseth fifth. All of RFR's drivers finished in the top-10 as McMurray notched a 10th place in the race. If you are looking for a long odds pick look no further than RFR and the No. 6 car.

Pick! David Ragan 30/1

Square Tire Pick

Matt Kenseth, No. 17, (+1.20) vs. Jimmy Johnson, No. 48, (-1.50)

There are several matchups this week that I really like. Sometimes I like picking matchups that involve drivers on the same team. I think, depending upon the track, that this is a counter-productive. As I have shown in the past few weeks certain teams are better than others at certain tracks. While generally I'd be all over Hendrick Motorsports, and indeed Junior did win at Michigan, another two-mile track, RFR has too much momentum at this point in the season. They really seem to have figured out the CoT and that has translated into wins. This week our pick is once again a pick that backs the team rather than the driver.

Pick! Matt Kenseth, No. 17, (+1.20) for one unit

Pepsi 500 Odds*

Sun, Aug 31st (7:00pm EST)
Auto Club Speedway, Fontana, CA

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 25/1
Carl Edwards 7/2
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 50/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 17/1
Elliott Sadler 50/1
Greg Biffle 25/2
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Jeff Burton 35/1
Jeff Gordon 14/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 15/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 50/1
Kyle Busch 4/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Martin Truex Jr. 45/1
Matt Kenseth 9/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Tony Stewart 11/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 75/1

Docsports.com

Top 5 and 5 to watch: Fontana
Sporting News

Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Fontana unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past seven races at the track.

1. Kyle Busch, 109.9 rating. Busch and Carl Edwards should see a lot of each other in this 500-mile race. In eight races, Busch has one win and six top 10s; Edwards has one win and seven top 10s in as many starts. Busch has finished second to Edwards the past two weeks. If you don't think that gnaws on Busch, well, you simply haven't been paying attention.

2. Carl Edwards, 105.6. Edwards won at Fontana in February and soon thereafter "yaw" became the buzzword in NASCAR. It's still an important word today, but it's used differently (work with me here): "Yaw'l should see the next chapter in this growing rivalry on Sunday."

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 73.7. Earnhardt was a victim of the weeping problem in February and finished 40th. Hopefully, that problem is gone forever. Junior has nothing to lose in this race. He should do whatever it takes to go for a victory.

4. Jimmie Johnson, 114.7. Johnson won this race last year and finished second to Edwards in February. His seven top fives in 11 races include two victories, four seconds and a third. It's little surprise Johnson has the best driver rating.

5. Jeff Burton, 92.8. Half of Burton's six top 10s in 16 races have come in the past five races. Overall, Burton needs to do something to snap out of his malaise. He has one top 10 (Indianapolis) in the past 10 races. Plodding into the Chase is no way to win a championship. Besides, as Tom Hanks once said, there's no plodding in NASCAR.

5 to watch - the boys on the bubble:

10. Matt Kenseth, 112.7. Kenseth has the second-best driver rating and has two wins and nine top 10s in 13 starts. His two wins have come it the past five races, and his average finish in those races is 4.2. Kenseth's competition had a chance to put him away when he was 202 points out of 12th. Now it is way too late. He leads 13th-place David Ragan by 78 points. If Ragan wants in, it won't be in place of Kenseth.

11. Denny Hamlin, 82.5. Hamlin has a 57-point lead over Ragan. Like Earnhardt, Hamlin was a victim of the wet track in February. Hamlin has one top 10 in five races, so Fontana is not one of his stronger tracks. No matter. He doesn't have to set the world on fire. He just needs to finish ahead of Ragan. He can do that.

12. Clint Bowyer, 84.1. Bowyer is in a heap of trouble. He is 12 points ahead of Ragan and 56 ahead of 14th-place Kasey Kahne. He absolutely has to stay out of trouble and finish ahead of both. He pulled a rabbit out of his helmet last week with a seventh-place finish at Bristol. But he has been so wildly inconsistent, there's no telling what will happen this week. He has two top 10s in five races, but his finishes in his past two trips to Fontana are 19th and 20th.

13. David Ragan, 77.4. Ragan is having the best stretch of his young career with five top 10s in the past seven races, including finishing 10th last week at Bristol after starting last in a backup car. In three races at Fontana he has finishes of 16th, 12th and 14th. The way he has been driving lately, coupled with Roush Fenway Racing's success at Fontana, should give Ragan a lot of confidence and Bowyer reason for concern.

14. Kasey Kahne, 98.4. Ford and Chevy have won all but one of the 16 Cup races at Fontana. A Dodge won the other race. Guess who the driver was? Kahne's win is one of his six top 10s in nine races. We've seen Kahne rally his way into the Chase before (2006). He can do it again.

Brian Gabrielle

Pepsi 500

Two Weeks Ago: We skipped last weekend's Bristol race, but two weeks ago, back in Michigan, we nailed Carl Edwards at a +600 wager. Since we didn't have a head-to-head selection, that gave us a weekly win of 0.67 units on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 134%. For the season, that gives us a profit of 6.69 units on 31.5 units wagered, a return of 21.2%. We've also given you winning weeks in 18 of 23 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won four units on three units wagered, a return of 133%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 16.73 units on 89 units wagered, a return of 18.8%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Carl Edwards (+400), 1/6th unit. We're back at a big wide-open two-miler Sunday night for the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana, which is a very similar track to the Michigan course where the Smokeless Set ran just two weeks ago. Edwards won the first time around in Fontana, back in February, and plus won that Michigan race going away in mid-August. He deserves to be a pretty heavy favorite here.

Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. Then again, how can you not pick the No. 18 car? Busch has been good on every track type under the sun this season, and it's unlikely that he'll suddenly lay an egg a week after he and Edwards got into a heated post-race skirmish at Bristol. I expect to see both of NASCAR's leading drivers up near the front, duking it out for a win in this, one of the circuit's marathon events.

Take David Ragan (+3000), 1/6th unit. And if we're going to take two favorites with our first two picks, let's go out on a slender limb with the third, shall we? Now, granted, Mr. Ragan has never won a Sprint Cup race. But his best career finish, a third place, came two weeks ago at the Michigan track which is so much like Fontana. Roush rides extraordinarily well at both Fontana and Michigan, and Ragan is currently 13th in points, giving him a spectacular chance to make his first Chase for the Championship. Yeah, this is a long shot. But I give Ragan a chance to stick around for most of the afternoon and evening, and then shock the world by winning his first career Cup race.

Johnson wins pole at California

Fontana, CA (Sports Network) - California-native Jimmie Johnson captured the pole for Sunday's Pepsi 500 at the Auto Club Speedway. The No.48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver and two-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion circled the two-mile oval in 39.912 seconds (180.397 mph).

The pole victory was Johnson's fourth of the season and the 17th of his Sprint Cup career. It was his first pole at California.

"I grew up very close to this racetrack and raced a lot in this area," Johnson said. "Great day, great performance. We worked hard on this car throughout all of practice. I made some good changes and picked up a lot of speed, and went out when it was awfully hot and put up a lap that stuck."

A.J. Allmendinger qualified a career-best second after posting a time of 40.076 seconds.

"That was pretty cool," Allmendinger said. "I knew the lap that Jimmie put up, that was pretty fast, but I just wanted to put a solid lap in and be smooth, and just get as get as good of a starting spot as we could and make sure we make the race."

Allmendinger, currently 36th in owner points, was one of the nine drivers who had to qualify on time.

Jeff Gordon (40.097) and Kasey Kahne (40.188) will start on the second row.

Other drivers of note and their starting positions: Kyle Busch (11th), Tony Stewart (14th), Greg Biffle (15th), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (18th), Denny Hamlin (21st), David Ragan (22nd), Carl Edwards (26th), Jeff Burton (27th), Clint Bowyer (31st), Kevin Harvick (33rd) and Matt Kenseth (37th).

Tony Raines was the only driver who failed to qualify.

Just two races remain before the 2008 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship begins September 14th at New Hampshire, Busch and Edwards have already qualified.

Edwards has closed the points gap on Busch the last two weeks by winning at Michigan and Bristol. His victory at Bristol ended in dramatic fashion as he bumped Busch aside for the lead with 31 laps to go. Busch retaliated at the conclusion of the race by intentionally ramming into Edwards, but Edwards responded by spinning Busch out. NASCAR placed both drivers on probation for the next six races resulting from their post-race altercation.

Edwards is looking to continue his winning momentum at California, where he captured his first Cup victory this season in February.

Johnson and Earnhardt, Jr. are expected to secure a spot for the "Chase" when they leave California, as both drivers only need to finish 40th or better. Johnson is the defending race winner.

The remaining seven positions in the "Chase" are still up for grabs as 170 points separate sixth-place Stewart from 13th-place Ragan. Stewart, seventh- place Biffle and eighth-place Harvick could potentially clinch at California, while Gordon, Kenseth, Hamlin and Bowyer, ninth through 12th in points, respectively, have their work cut out for them. Just 108 points separate Gordon from Ragan.

Ragan is only 12 points behind Bowyer, while 14th-place Kahne is 56 markers back. After finishing 40th at Bristol, Kahne hopes to rebound at California, where he has scored six top-10 finishes, including a victory in the Labor Day weekend event there two years ago.

The green flag is scheduled to drop Sunday around 8 p.m. (et).

Trading Paint: Pepsi 500 picks

Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Sunday's Pepsi 500 in Fontana, Calif.

The rules are simple:
1. A panelist can't pick the same driver in back-to-back weeks.
2. Standings will be calculated each week based on the actual points earned by the drivers each panelist picks to win.

After 24 races, the standings are as follows, with their pick of last week's winner in parentheses:

Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Kaminski is sitting so pretty entering the race at California (I refuse to call it Auto Club Speedway) that he's calling for us to basically bow at his feet (not a chance ... smell those things lately?) and call it quits. Not gonna happen. Despite a sub-par week when my pick actually finished lower than Pitts' (for the first time since I think February), I'm inspired. Hopefully this week, Kaminski will end up with his stinky foot in his mouth.

• Winner -- Jimmie Johnson. He was the pole-sitter in February and wound up second to Carl Edwards. Edwards won't get three in a row this week, so this could be Johnson's time in the winner's circle.

• Sleeper -- Kasey Kahne. He dropped three spots after last week to fall out of the Chase for now (he's 14th) after being jumped by Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer and David Ragan. He'll get in back in California.

• No chance -- Carl Edwards. Two wins in a row is truly something, but I'm just not feeling a third for him this weekend.

Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
Remember the car Carl Edwards won Las Vegas with back in March? The one NASCAR took away after it was discovered the oil tank lid was off?

I hear Edwards is bringing it to California.

• Winner -- Carl Edwards. He is on a two-race winning streak and is headed to one of his best tracks.

• Sleeper -- Martin Truex Jr. His season is going nowhere, but he has put together back-to-back top 10s at California.

• No chance -- Kasey Kahne. He should bag it. No Chase this year.

Antoine Pitts -- The Ann Arbor News
If any of these drivers think Bristol was crowded, just wait until they get back on the southern California freeways this weekend. Carl Edwards better not be tapping anyone's bumper on the 405 or he'll learn a lesson he'll never forget. Personally, I can't wait for the Chase season to begin, as all of our point totals will be re-set.

• Winner -- Kyle Busch. Unless he wrecks trying to run over Edwards, Kyle will win.

• Sleeper -- Martin Truex. Could be in for a repeat of the top-10 finish he had in February at Fontana.

• No chance -- Robby Gordon. Early exit at Bristol has been typical of his season.

Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Let's see. Carl and Kyle have to play nice this week. Gee, that takes a little of the fun out of things in California.

As for picking a winner, the easiest thing to do is look to see who was strong at Michigan a few weeks ago. The tracks are both horesepower tracks and they're both tracks where several drivers are up against it as far as making the Chase goes.

As for up against it, I'd love to put Kaminski up against the wall this week.

• Winner -- Brian Vickers. Don't laugh. This guy sat on the pole at Michigan and ran up front much of the day. With so many of the top guys thinking about playing it a little conservative to preserve points, watch Vickers take out a little of the frustration of a disappointing season.

• Sleeper -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. It's been a strange year for Hendrick Motorsports, as Jeff Gordon is still winless and Earnhardt is sitting on one win. Still, both are on pace to make the Chase and could still be there at the end. Earnhardt was in the top 10 all day at Michigan until the wall go in his way late.

• Jeff Burton -- Jeff Burton. Burton is making his 500th career start. That's good. Burton has been almost invisible the second half of the NASCAR season. That's not so good.

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