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Pure Michigan 400 Betting News and Notes

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(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Posts: 318493
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Michigan International Speedway Data

Season Race #: 23 of 36 (08-16-15)
Track Size: 2-miles
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 18 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 18 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 5 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 3,600 feet
Backstretch Length: 2,242 feet
Race Length: 200 laps / 400 miles

Top 10 Driver Ratings at Michigan

Greg Biffle 107.1
Jimmie Johnson 102.5
Matt Kenseth 101.2
Carl Edwards 100.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 98.0
Tony Stewart 95.8
Jeff Gordon 93.6
Joey Logano 91.8
Kevin Harvick 90.2
Kurt Busch 89.9

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2015 races (21 total) among active drivers at Michigan International Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data
2014 pole winner:
Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet
206.558 mph, 34.857 secs. 08-17-14

2014 race winner:
Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet
141.788 mph, (02:49:16), 08-17-14

Track qualifying record:
Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet
206.558 mph, 34.857 secs. 08-17-14

Track race record:
Dale Jarrett, Ford
173.997 mph, (2:17:56), 06-13-99

 
Posted : August 12, 2015 2:56 pm
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Michigan Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Ortho Ford)

· Four wins, ten top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.048, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.093, series-best
· Driver Rating of 103.8, series-best
· 311 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.305, third-fastest
· 3265 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1), series-most
· 920 Quality Passes, series-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Haas Automation Chevrolet)

· Three wins, five top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 20.286, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.669, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.0, 10th-best
· 184 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.517, 12th-fastest
· 2620 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3), eighth-most
· 682 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 MICROSOFT Chevrolet)

· Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.143, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.173, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.9, fifth-best
· 202 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.174, sixth-fastest
· 2808 Laps in the Top 15 (68.9), seventh-most
· 868 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 ARRIS Toyota)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.810, series-best
· Average Running Position of 11.123, second-best
· Driver Rating of 101.1, fourth-best
· 214 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.223, fifth-fastest
· 3099 Laps in the Top 15 (76.0), third-most
· 887 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 PEPSI Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 19 top fives, 27 top 10s; six poles
· Average finish of 15.667, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.660, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.3, seventh-best
· 233 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.486, 13th-fastest
· 2615 Laps in the Top 15 (64.1), ninth-most
· 696 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Jimmy John's/Budweiser Chevrolet)

· One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.333, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.934, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.5, ninth-best
· 170 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.883, ninth-fastest
· 2279 Laps in the Top 15 (55.9), 13th-most
· 675 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.429, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 11.955, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.2, third-best
· 415 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.598, second-fastest
· 2909 Laps in the Top 15 (71.4), sixth-most
· 776 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet)

· One win, eight top fives, ten top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 17.000, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.213, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.5, 13th-best
· 184 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.966, seventh-fastest
· 2357 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8), 11th-most
· 772 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Two wins, 13 top fives, 19 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.286, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.319, third-best
· Driver Rating of 102.0, second-best
· 174 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.234, fourth-fastest
· 3125 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6), second-most
· 873 Quality Passes, third-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford
)
· Three top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 14.083, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.687, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, 12th-best
· 55 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.856, 10th-fastest
· 1478 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1), 10th-most
· 379 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)

· One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.154, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.207, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.9, eighth-best
· 82 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.951, eighth-fastest
· 1445 Laps in the Top 15 (56.8), 12th-most
· 410 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)

· One win, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.053, second-best
· Average Running Position of 13.103, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 94.1, sixth-best
· 104 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.751, 11th-fastest
· 2635 Laps in the Top 15 (71.7), fifth-most
· 746 Quality Passes, seventh-most

 
Posted : August 12, 2015 2:58 pm
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Pure Michigan 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Let's go to Michigan, again.

For the second time this season the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Michigan International Speedway’s wide 2-mile layout with only four races remaining before the Chase field is set. The one big difference from Sunday’s race and the one ran on June 14 is the set-up being used by all the teams.

In June, the teams ran a new aero package that was introduced at the beginning of the season. But after seeing some rather boring races on the 1.5-and 2-mile tracks, NASCAR changed some things up for a couple of races just to see if they could slow the cars down while also making the racing better.

At Kentucky, NASCAR mandated a new low-down force package and it turned out to be the best races of the season. At Indianapolis, they instituted a high-drag package where they raised the spoiler up three inches and the racing was ordinary -- to maybe even weak.

This week at Michigan they’ll be using that same high drag package from Indianapolis, and we‘ll just have to see if the racing will be better. The rain shortened Michigan June race won by Kurt Busch had 17 lead changes among 11 drivers, which looks competitive, but it really wasn't. Indy saw 16 lead changes among only six drivers.

Kyle Busch ended up winning at Indy with the high drag package, but it was Kevin Harvick who led a race high 75 of the 164 laps. Harvick’s domination under the regular package was part of the reason, I believe, NASCAR made changes.

But the funny thing is that despite leading so many laps this season his last win came at Phoenix in March. He’s only got two wins on the year. Four other drivers have two wins and two drivers have four wins, so as much as he's dominating the lap leader charts on these big tracks, he's not winning...on any of them since Las Vegas, the third race of the season.

However, I think that will change this week with Harvick finally getting back into victory lane. He won there in 2010 and had been runner-up in four straight races until getting shuffled to 29th in the rain delay before the race was called. Harvick led a race high 63 of the 138 laps in that race.

Carl Edwards leads the way with a track best 9.8 average finish, but he hasn’t had a top-five since 2011. The last of his two wins came in 2008.

Joey Logano has a track best 5.4 average finish in his past five starts, which includes a 2013 win. His 194 laps led over those five races are the most; Harvick is next with 126 laps led.

Greg Biffle is the active leader with four wins, but finished 36th in June during this awful display for Roush Fenway Racing. This is Jack Roush’s home track and no car owner has more wins at Michigan than his 13. His last win there came in 2013 with Biffle.

Jimmie Johnson has a very ordinary 16th-place finish over his career at Michigan and his only win came last spring.

I’m not going to put as much emphasis in the changes like I did for Kentucky, or even for Indy, so I’ll be keying on the meat and potatoes drivers that have been showing the most horsepower all season. However, over the past eight weeks we’ve the Joe Gibbs drivers get to the level Harvick is at while also seeing Hendrick Motorsports drop off a little bit.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
2) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (9/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
4) #41 Kurt Busch (8/1)
5) #19 Carl Edwards (15/1)

 
Posted : August 12, 2015 2:59 pm
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Drivers to Watch - Michigan
By Sportsbook.ag

With just four more races until “The Chase for the Cup,” the drivers gear up for their second visit to Michigan this summer for the Pure Michigan 400. In June, when these racers first came to Michigan International Speedway, 11 different cars were able to lead at some point with Kevin Harvick leading the most (63), but it was Kurt Busch that ended up making a huge jump from his 24th pole position to take the trophy home.

This specific event has taken place since 1969 on the two-mile, D-shaped oval track that features 18-degree turns and has seen a different winner each year since 2004. Last year, it was Jeff Gordon who took the checkered flag for his second career win in the race and first since first doing so back in 1998. His time (2:49:16) was the slowest since 2009 and he will be joined in this field by just Greg Biffle as multiple time victors in this event. Last week, it was Joey Logano that took his second win of the year at Watkins Glen as he just beat out the scorching hot Kyle Busch, who was the runner-up after leading just three laps.

Let’s now look through some of the racers out there this week and find who may have a leg up on the competition.

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (8/1) –Johnson has not necessarily dominated this track like he has many others, posting an average finish of 15.429 (10th-best) with just one win. He has raced well overall though, with the third-best driver rating (101.2) here while managing to have the second-fastest green flag speed (179.598 MPH). Johnson has four victories on the year, all coming before the beginning of June, and currently sits in fourth in the Sprint Cup Standings. With six Sprint Cup Series championships and 74 career wins under his belt, it is safe to a say that another win is coming soon after nine straight without one, and he should be somebody that everybody is keeping an eye on this week.

Matt Kenseth (8/1) – Kenseth owns the second-best driver rating (102.0) here thanks to two victories and another 13 top-fives while spending 76.6% of the time (3,125 laps) in the top-15 (second-most). He only has one top-10 in this event over the last four attempts, but is in the midst of a hot streak right now in which he has done no worse than seventh in this last five races. In that time he earned himself a nice win in the Poconos and is coming off of a fourth in Watkins Glen after starting way back in 26th. His last visit to the track came in June and he showed up nicely on that day, placing fourth and leading for three laps. Kenseth has had a ton of success here and will likely continue his recent strong performances again come Sunday afternoon.

Paul Menard (60/1) – It has been a consistent yet unspectacular season for 34-year-old Menard who is often in the 10-15 range at race’s end, but has shown some promise to take the checkered flag with a third in Talladega and a fourth in California. His recent success on this track will also certainly give him some confidence when the engines start on Sunday as he has been in the top-nine, including consecutive fourth-place finishes, in this event over the last three years and had one of his better showings (8th) when the racers came here back in June. Menard has just one career Sprint Cup Series win to his name, but is having his best career season as he looks to improve on his 2012 of 16th in the Sprint Cup Series standings after currently sitting in 11th.

Austin Dillon (100/1) – Dillon has flirted with victories in the past but has never been able to grab one despite finishing in the top-20 of the Sprint Cup Standings last year. The 24-year-old is certainly on the upswing as he gains more experience and in his last six races has been able to grab two top-10s while also putting up a 13th at Pocono a few weeks ago. When going at Michigan International Speedway in his career, Dillon has been great in the pole, starting at an average position of 13.6, but has not carried it over when the race starts with an average finish of 19.4. With his team doing well right now it would not be able to improve on his pole position this week and surprise many with his performance.

Greg Biffle (100/1) – The odds are just too high for a guy who has four career victories at Michigan despite the fact that he is in the midst of a subpar season in which he has just three top-10s over 22 starts. He has been able to get into the top-five in two of those high finishes, ending as the runner up in Charlotte after winning the Sprint Showdown and then also led two laps and grabbed a fifth at Pocono just a few weeks ago. Biffle has a series-best driver rating of 103.8 while spending an incredible 3,265 of his laps in the top-15 (80.1%, series-best). In this event since 2003, he has been huge with nine finishes in the top-10 as he comes off a 10th in 2014. This 45-year-old may not have too much left in the tank, but with another chance at “The Chase” on the line, he should perform well at a track which he has always performed well at.

Odds to win Pure Michigan 400

Kevin Harvick 4/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Kurt Busch 8/1
Martin Truex Jr. 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Kasey Kahne 15/1
Denny Hamlin 18/1
Jeff Gordon 18/1
Kyle Larson 30/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Tony Stewart 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100/1
Ryan Blaney 100/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1

Check out more NASCAR Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

 
Posted : August 13, 2015 10:33 pm
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