Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Driver Tale of the Tape at Kentucky

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M National Fallen Firefighters Foundation Ford)

· Average finish of 21.0
· Average Running Position of 13.4, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.9, 13th-best
· 23 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· 172 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.814 mph, eighth-fastest
· 420 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), eighth-most
· 88 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Serta Chevrolet)

· One top 10
· Average finish of 14.0
· Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 92.6, eighth-best
· 20 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.386 mph, 13th-fastest

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Doublemint Toyota)

· One win, one top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 5.5
· Series-best Average Running Position of 3.6
· Series-best Driver Rating of 133.0
· Series-high 92 Fastest Laps Run
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.694 mph, third-fastest
· 516 Laps in the Top 15 (96.6%), third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Youth Foundation Chevrolet)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 17.0
· Average Running Position of 13.1, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, 11th-best
· 18 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· 156 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.654 mph, ninth-fastest
· 301 Laps in the Top 15 (56.4%), 13th-most
· 68 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 UPS Ford)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 12.5
· Average Running Position of 9.7, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.3, seventh-best
· 10 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.928 mph, seventh-fastest
· 456 Laps in the Top 15 (85.4%), fifth-most
· 91 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)

· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 7.5
· Average Running Position of 13.9, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.8, ninth-best
· 14 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 173 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.496 mph, 12th-fastest
· 335 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), 10th-most
· 93 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 7.0
· Average Running Position of 8.7, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 105.0, fourth-best
· 32 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.968 mph, fourth-fastest
· 430 Laps in the Top 15 (80.5%), sixth-most
· 69 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)

· Average finish of 13.5
· Average Running Position of 12.3, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.2, 12th-best
· 164 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
· 424 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), seventh-most
· 77 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet)

· One top five, two top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 4.5
· Average Running Position of 4.7, third-best
· Driver Rating of 119.5, third-best
· 56 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 171.807 mph
· 523 Laps in the Top 15 (97.9%), second-most
· 92 Quality Passes, third-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Quaker State Chevrolet)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 7.5
· Average Running Position of 15.1, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 96.7, sixth-best
· 31 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Series-high 230 Green Flag Passes
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.961 mph, fifth-fastest

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Two top 10s
· Average finish of 6.5
· Average Running Position of 10.0, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.2, fifth-best
· 19 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.936 mph, sixth-fastest
· 510 Laps in the Top 15 (95.5%), fourth-most
· Series-high 122 Quality Passes

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford)

· One win, one top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 4.0
· Average Running Position of 3.9, second-best
· Driver Rating of 128.2, second-best
· 72 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.762 mph, second-fastest
· Series-high 526 Laps in the Top 15 (98.5%)

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)

· One top 10
· Average finish of 13.0
· Average Running Position of 12.8, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, 10th-best
· 77 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Quaker State 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

I originally had a thought process coming into this week that the Joe Gibbs Racing team would be the drivers to beat Saturday night in the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. After being informed Toyota's reduction in horsepower as we saw at Pocono and Michigan will be continued this week, contrary to earlier reports, some strategies are going to have to be changed and altered.

It's hard to get the Matt Kenseth wins at Las Vegas, Kansas and Darlington out of my head. The same goes for Kyle Busch who rolled to wins at Fontana and Texas. But those performances are long gone, and for a team trying to win championships as many of the Gibbs and Waltrip drivers are, they can't keep having engines expiring.

For Busch, I was salivating at the chance to wager on him just because of all his past success at Kentucky. There have only been two Cup races at Kentucky -- Busch won the inaugural race in 2011, but he's had all kinds success there in other series. He's claimed a Nationwide Series win, a Truck series win and also won as an 18-year old in an ARCA race. Few drivers have had more time racing at Kentucky than Busch.

The 1.5-mile tri-oval with 15 degrees of banking in the turns was an ideal situation to see the Kenseth and Busch get back to their early season ways. Denny Hamlin was also a driver to consider as he attempts to make his charge in the Chase. In Hamlin's case, he has to win, and win now. He can't be too happy about program changes while trying make a miraculous season comeback after missing four races this season due to a back injury.

With questions still surrounding drivers that would have been favorites, you have to go back and kind of run a similar process before Michigan where you give Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne strong considerations, while also bumping Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards more into the equation. Kahne has finished second three times on the four 1.5-mile tracks raced on this season.

On the same note, Kevin Harvick is due to steal another one, and Brad Keselowski last year's Kentucky winner has got to eventually get a win on the season.

One of the best long shots on the board is probably Joey Logano. He's shown more power on 1.5-mile tracks this season than his teammate Keselowski, and he's also got some pretty good credentials at Kentucky in other series. Maybe not as impressive as Busch, but he does have a couple Nationwide wins there.

Despite Kahne having some recent issues, I like him the best to come out on top based on his success at Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. If he can stay on the track, he should be one of the drivers to beat.

Ultimately, you still have give Busch consideration despite less horsepower. Busch wasn't a strong contender at Pocono and Michigan, but did finish the race get top-10's. His past excellence on the track accounts for a lot here this week. Instead of being the favorite to win this week though, he's taken down a few notches.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #5 Kasey Kahne (8/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (20/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (12/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)

Driver Handicaps: Kentucky
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com's Jeff Wackerlin brings you his weekly detailed analysis to help steer you toward Saturday night's Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway.

Who's HOT at Kentucky (2 Races)

• Defending race winner Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with a 4.0 average finish.
• Kyle Busch, winner of the 2011 race, leads all drivers in laps led with 243.
• Along with Keselowski and Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth are the only drivers to finish in the top 10 in both races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Kentucky

• Martin Truex Jr. (5.8), Kevin Harvick (8.8), Paul Menard (12.5), Jamie McMurray (13.8) and Clint Bowyer (13.8) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among all drivers in the four races that have been contested on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman and David Reutimann (with Michael Waltrip Racing) each have finished in the top five in one of the two Kentucky races.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top five in two of his last three starts on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Kurt Busch finished third in the last race on a 1.5-mile track, the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
• Richard Childress Racing tested at Kentucky earlier this month.
• Tony Stewart has finished seventh or better in the last four races on ovals this season.
• Greg Biffle, who has finished in the top 10 in the last three races of the season, will return in the same car he finished second with at Pocono Raceway.

Note: Teams will be running the same right-side tire that that they ran at Kentucky the last two seasons. The left-side tire is new and features a construction change compared to what was run at this track last year. This setup is the same one that was run at Dover International Speedway earlier this month .

MotorRacingNetwork.com Writer Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Matt Kenseth
Dustin Long: Matt Kenseth
John Singler: Kasey Kahne

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Kentucky unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: Second-best average finish (4.5) in the two races; One of five tracks on the schedule that he has yet to win at; Third-best driver rating; Sixth among all drivers in average finish (9.2) and fifth in laps led (75) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 799) that he finished 22nd with in the Coca-Cola 600.

Carl Edwards: 12.5 average finish in the two races; Fifth among all drivers in average finish (9.0) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new chassis (No. 831) in the Quaker State 400.

Clint Bowyer: Coming off best finish in 16th; 25.5 average finish in the two races; 13.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 738) that he last finished 11th with at Darlington Raceway.

Kevin Harvick: 13.5 average finish in the two races; Coming off best finish in 11th; Fourth among all drivers in average finish (8.8) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Tested at Kentucky earlier this month; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 425) that he won with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

Matt Kenseth: Fourth-best average finish (6.5); Fifth-best driver rating in the two races; Third among all drivers in average finish (7.2) and first in laps led (317) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Making first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Greg Biffle: Finished 21st in both races; Worst oval on the schedule based on average finish; 17.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 844) that he finished second with at Pocono Raceway.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Lowered average finish from 30.0 to 17.0 last season with a fourth-place finish; 22.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 726) that he finished 39th with in the Coca-Cola 600 after the engine expired.

Kyle Busch: Winner of the 2011 race; Leads all drivers in laps led (243); Third-best average finish (5.5); Best driver rating in the two races; 20.2 average finish and 263 laps led (third among all drivers) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car.

Brad Keselowski: Defending race winner; Leads all drivers with a 4.0 average finish and second in laps led (147); Second-best driver rating in the two races; 13.5 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 852) that he finished 33rd with at Richmond International Raceway.

Martin Truex Jr: 13.0 average finish in the two races; Coming off best finish in eighth; Second among all drivers in average finish (5.8) and fourth in laps led (188) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car.

Kasey Kahne: 7.5 average finish in the two races; Finished second last season in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Leads all drivers with a 4.2 average finish and is second in laps led (275) in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 739) that he ran inside the top five with for a majority of the race at Darlington Raceway before being collected in an incident.

Paul Menard: 18.0 average in the two races; Coming off best finish in 12th; 12.5 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Tested at Kentucky earlier this month; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 414) that he used in the test and finished 19th with at Darlington Raceway.

Jeff Gordon: 7.5 average finish in the two races; Coming off best finish in fifth; Only track left on the schedule he's yet to win at; 27.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car.

Joey Logano: 18.0 average finish in the two races; 15.2 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will make his track debut with Penske Racing in a new chassis (No. 858).

Tony Stewart: 22.0 average finish in the two races; 15.0 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 736) that he last finished 21st with at Kansas Speedway.

Aric Almirola: Finished 26th last year in first track start; 16.0 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car that he finished 18th with at Dover International Speedway.

Kurt Busch: 14.0 average finish in the two races; 18.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will make third track start with third different team - Furniture Row Racing.

Ryan Newman: Finished fourth in 2011; 34th-place finish in 2012 dropped his average finish to 19.0; 17.0 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 733) that he last finished fifth with at Pocono Raceway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 20.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Will make first Sprint Cup track start in the same car (chassis No. 791) that he raced in the Sprint Showdown and All-Star Race last month.

Jeff Burton: 21.5 average finish in the two races; 19.8 average finish in the four races on 1.5-mile tracks with the Gen-6 car; Tested at Kentucky earlier this month; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 372) that he finished 32nd with at Bristol Motor Speedway.

NASCAR races under Kentucky lights Saturday
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com

After tackling the Sonoma road course last week, the NASCAR circuit moves to the more traditional “cookie cutter” track at Kentucky on Saturday night for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts. The Kentucky Speedway opened in 2000 in a 1.5-mile tri-oval shape. All the turns have an identical banking of 14°, making it one of the flattest of the six other similar tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas and Chicagoland). The frontstretch, which measures 1,662 feet is banked at just 18° while the backstretch measures a similar 1,600 feet, but with only half the banking (4°) of the frontstretch. There have been only two NASCAR races at Kentucky. Kyle Busch took the checkered flag in the first race in 2011, and Brad Keselowski won at Kentucky last year.

Drivers to Watch

Kasey Kahne (8/1) - Not only was Kahne last year's runner-up at Kentucky, but he continues to thrive in 1.5-mile tracks. In the past four such races this season (Charlotte, Kansas, Fort Worth and Las Vegas), he's placed 2nd, 2nd, 11th and 2nd. And after crashing in Michigan two weeks ago, Kahne looked strong at Sonoma last week with a sixth-place finish. This marked his sixth top-6 showing this year. He is certainly worthy of your largest wager on Saturday night.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Last year's winner at Kentucky also finished 7th at this track in 2011. The defending points champion has always been a great intermediate track driver, and this year is no different, placing 3rd in Las Vegas, 6th at Kansas and 9th in Fort Worth. He's also raced consistently well enough all season to remain among the top-10 drivers in the standings after all 16 starts. He's cranked out five top-5's, eight top-10's and has led at least one lap in nine of these races. That includes his seven laps led last week at Sonoma. At 12-to-1, the No. 2 car represents the best value on the board.

Tony Stewart (20/1) - In last year's Kentucky race, Stewart was getting 8-to-1 odds, so this looks like an undervalued driver on Saturday. Although he finished a disappointing 32nd in last year's Quaker State 400, the year before he started 9th and finished 12th. Stewart has also been decent on intermediate tracks, placing 11th in Las Vegas and then coming in 7th in Charlotte to start a run of four straight top-7 finishes, winning at Dover, placing 4th at Pocono and coming in 5th at Michigan. He's the best darkhorse on the board and thus worthy of a small wager.

Martin Truex Jr. (15/1) - The oddsmakers gave him 25-to-1 odds last year, so the value isn't great here. But Truex Jr. is an intermediate track monster, placing in the top-9 in all four 1.5-mile tracks this season. He was 8th in Las Vegas, 2nd in Fort Worth, 4th in Kansas and 9th in Charlotte. He has also moved up from 17th to 10th in the points standings in just the past two weeks alone, thanks to a 3rd-place showing at Michigan, followed by his victory at Sonoma last week. Placing 8th at Kentucky last year is just further ammunition to drop a one-unit wager on the No. 56 car.

Ryan Newman (100/1) - There are a good number of longshots on the board, but none are more exciting than Newman, who finished 4th at Kentucky in 2011 and started 5th at this track last year before a crash ended his day. He's been strong on 1.5-mile tracks all season. After an engine problem derailed his day in Las Vegas, he placed 10th at Fort Worth, 14th at Kansas and an excellent 6th at Charlotte, the track most similar to Kentucky's worn-out surface. If you discount the four races he has not completed this season (3 crashes, 1 engine), Newman's average finish is an impressive 12.2. And when you consider that Newman went off at 40-to-1 at Kentucky last year, you can see why the triple-digit payoff is somewhat realistic.

Quaker State 400 Post-Practice Betting Notes and Top-Rated Drivers
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

Based on Friday’s final practice sessions at Kentucky Speedway, Jimmie Johnson appears to have had enough of this little winless streak he’s had on 1.5-mile tracks this season, as well as in the two previous Kentucky races. He was second-fastest in the early session and bettered it during happy hour by going to the top of the charts. Johnson even showed off during long runs by having the fastest 10-consecutive-lap average.

Because of his impressive run Friday, and a few other factors, Johnson’s odds will plummet near the 4-to-1 range when odds to win Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 are reopened following qualifying.

The Saturday night races are usually the toughest to gauge because of an irregular schedule that has only two practices run with qualifying to follow. Under normal circumstances, it’s easier to separate what each team is doing in practice. Usually, Friday is all about being fast in qualifying trim while Saturday is reserved for final race-day setups.

Friday’s practices at Kentucky had just about every team doing something different. Some went heavy with race runs early and qualifying set-ups later, while others did the opposite. So, when looking at the practice times, it looks jumbled, with the lone exceptions of Johnson and 2011 Kentucky winner Kyle Busch.

Busch had a lot of question marks from an odds standpoint this week because of not fully knowing what kind of horsepower would be produced out of Toyota. It was apparent that teammates Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin looked a little slower during practice than might be expected if comparing their performances at other 1.5-mile tracks, but Busch excelled. When looking at pure speed consistently from practice in all set-ups, along with his success in every racing series he’s driven in at Kentucky, he’s a real contender to be Johnson’s stiffest competition.

Because there is still a hint of doubt with Toyota, Kasey Kahne got rated higher based on his four 1.5-mile track performances this season that has seem him finish second three times. He’s been going through a rut lately, which factors against him as well, but it wasn’t because his car was slow. Kahne also finished second at Kentucky last season.

Another driver who gets high marks despite not being overly impressive in both practice sessions is Kevin Harvick. He did claim the fastest lap in the first session on the final of his 14-lap run, which may suggest qualifying trim, but the reason to like him is more about the car itself. He’s using the same chassis that won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May, and most of his race set-ups for this week are geared towards the climate change at night, when the race is won. He used one of his four test sessions on the year to run laps under those same changing conditions a few weeks ago.

Johnson is going to be tough to beat, but he’s got a lot of competitors out there -- mostly Chevrolet -- on his tail, and this is one of only five tracks on tour at which Johnson has never won. One of those Chevys is driven by teammate Jeff Gordon, who was also very strong in practice. Kentucky is the only track currently on the schedule at which Gordon has never won.