Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Kentucky - Driver Tale of the Tape

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 3.800, series-best
· Average Running Position of 4.614, series-best
· Driver Rating of 129.1, series-best
· 194 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.212, series-fastest
· 1270 Laps in the Top 15 (95.1), series-most
· 119 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three top 10s
· Average finish of 11.200, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 12.997, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, 10th-best
· 25 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.678, 10th-fastest
· 834 Laps in the Top 15 (62.5), 10th-most
· 168 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, two top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.400, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.745, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.2, 12th-best
· 33 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.613, 11th-fastest
· 686 Laps in the Top 15 (51.4), 13th-most
· 119 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 13.400, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.546, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 92.2, eighth-best
· 34 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.868, ninth-fastest
· 912 Laps in the Top 15 (68.3), seventh-most
· 156 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 18.800, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.046, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.6, ninth-best
· 52 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.688, third-fastest
· 755 Laps in the Top 15 (56.6), 12th-most
· 115 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three top 10s
· Average finish of 10.400, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.976, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.1, sixth-best
· 18 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.278, seventh-fastest
· 1143 Laps in the Top 15 (85.6), fourth-most
· 186 Quality Passes, second-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 7.400, third-best
· Average Running Position of 7.437, second-best
· Driver Rating of 111.9, third-best
· 129 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.719, second-fastest
· 1159 Laps in the Top 15 (86.8.), third-most
· 172 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 12.200, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.543, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.0, seventh-best
· 64 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.096, eighth-fastest
· 845 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3), ninth-most
· 186 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, three top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 4.600, second-best
· Average Running Position of 8.958, third-best
· Driver Rating of 106.7, fourth-best
· 84 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.604, fourth-fastest
· 1230 Laps in the Top 15 (92.1), second-most
· 233 Quality Passes, series-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.600, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.189, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 117.8, second-best
· 253 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.588, fifth-fastest
· 1104 Laps in the Top 15 (82.7), fifth-most
· 149 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two top fives, three top 10s
· Average finish of 10.200, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.723, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.4, fifth-best
· 47 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.309, sixth-fastest
· 936 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1), sixth-most
· 138 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 15.000, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.883, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.0, 11th-best
· 14 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.581, 13th-fastest
· 871 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2), eighth-most
· 146 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two top 10s
· Average finish of 13.800, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.772, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.2, 13th-best
· 7 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.585, 12th-fastest
· 776 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1), 11th-most
· 151 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Quaker State 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Saturday's Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway will signify the halfway point of the 2016 Sprint Cup season and it will also take us right into the middle of the 1.5-mile season. There are 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks during the season and five have been run on already.

So far we've seen Jimmie Johnson win at Atlanta, Brad Keselowski win at Las Vegas, Kyle Busch win at Texas and Kansas and Martin Truex Jr. take Charlotte. Those drivers all figure to be excellent again this week, but there's a little added twist this week.

NASCAR announced in mid-May that they would be reducing the spoiler from 3.5-inches to 2.5-inches and the splitter down to 2-inches to enhance the racing, but that the package would be on a trial period only for races at Michigan and Kentucky. After Saturday's race, that package will be shelved until being discussed again in the off-season.

Last year Kentucky was the site of reduced downforce on a trial basis and it turned out to be the best race of the season which ushered the changes into being permanent for 2016. Now they're trying to make things even better, I guess -- the racing on 1.5-mile tracks this season looked nothing like Kentucky's 2015 race.

When looking back at last month's Michigan race, the racing wasn't all that good. In fact, it was rather boring. Only eight drivers led a lap and there was only 14 lead changes -- yawn. Joey Logano led a race-high 138 of the 200 laps, including the final 47.

Let's hope Kentucky's 1.5-mile layout produces some better racing like it did last season.

What we can use Michigan for is to look at who fared well in an attempt to keep up with Logano. Chances are that they'll all be good again this weekend. Chase Elliott led 35 laps and had his best career finish with second-place. Kyle Larson was third, Brad Keselowski was fourth and Kevin Harvick fifth.

Surprisingly, no Joe Gibbs Racing drivers were in the top-five -- Carl Edwards was sixth. Last year at Kentucky in the pacakage debut, JGR drivers were way ahead of the game with four of its drivers in the top-five. Could it be that Team Penske has this thing figured out best? Its only two drivers in the top-four is a strong indicator they know what's up.

Even though Logano won at Michigan, Keselowski would be the driver to key on of the Penske duo. This guy loves Kentucky. He won there in 2012 and 2014 in the Cup Series and then he's also got three wins in the Xfinity Series. For the past five seasons he's won some kind of NASCAR race at Kentucky. Logano was runner-up in this race last season and he's won three times in the Xfinity Series.

If just looking on past history at Kentucky, Kyle Busch would be King. All he's done is average a 3.8 finish in five starts, which includes a win in the inaugural Cup race in 2011 and last season. His worst finish was 10th in 2012. He's one of three drivers to have top-10 finishes in all five Kentucky Cup races (Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson the others). He also has two of the five wins on 1.5s this season.

Let's go with Keselowski and Busch to battle it out for the win. The two are tied for the series lead with three wins and they don't really like each other too much, which makes it even more fun. I'm sure Brad still remembers the days when Kyle was calling the young and brash Keselowski "Brad Crash-a-lot-ski." I'm also sure Kyle remembers how it felt when Keselowski won a championship before he did.

Mutual respect now, though, for sure. Maybe.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #24 Chase Elliott (18/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)

Kentucky Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Pete Pistone helps steer you toward Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts at Kentucky Speedway.

Who's HOT In Kentucky

Kyle Busch: He’s a two-time Kentucky winner, taking the inaugural checkered flag in 2011 and winning again last year. Busch got himself out of a recent tailspin with a pair of good finishes in Sonoma and Daytona. He also took part in last month’s Kentucky test session.

Brad Keselowski: Another two-time Kentucky winner, in 2012 and 2014. Keselowski goes into the weekend fresh off a Daytona victory, his third win of the season.

Martin Truex Jr.: His Kentucky record isn’t stellar, with only a 13.8 average finish in the five races held. But Truex has been a beast on 1.5-mile tracks this year and the Furniture Row Racing Toyota has been in front for 70 percent of all laps led at those speedways.

Matt Kenseth: Won the Kentucky race in 2013. He's always been good in "The Bluegrass State," never finishing outside the top 10 in his five starts.

Jimmie Johnson: The new layout and lower-downforce rules package may play into Johnson's and crew chief Chad Knaus’ hands this weekend. Johnson’s average finish at Kentucky is 7.4.

Who's NOT

Danica Patrick: She’s made three Sprint Cup starts in Kentucky and Patrick’s best finish was 21st in 2014. She has an average finish of 26.0 there.

Tony Stewart: He’ll have to overcome past Kentucky challenges to keep his run at staying inside the top 30 in points alive for a Chase berth. Stewart’s 21.6 average finish includes a best of only 11th in 2014.

AJ Allmendinger: Despite a top-10 Kentucky effort in 2012, when he finished ninth, Allmendinger’s average finish there is over 20. His chances of making the Chase are dwindling as the regular season winds down.

Greg Biffle: His Daytona pole last week and top-10 finish were much-needed shots in the arm for the veteran driver. But Biffle will need to take some of that magic with him to Kentucky, where he has a 21.2 average finish.

Jamie McMurray: Another driver scrambling to make the Chase, McMurray has a second-place Kentucky finish to his credit in 2013. Unfortunately, his four other finishes add up to an average finish of 20.8 in five starts.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Kentucky

Joey Logano: He takes a streak of three straight top-10 Kentucky finishes into the weekend including second place last year behind Kyle Busch.

Kevin Harvick: Five starts at Kentucky have added up to an average finish of 10.8, and Harvick has finished seventh and eighth in the last two races there.

Carl Edwards: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been strong on 1.5-mile tracks this year. He finished fourth last season in his first Kentucky start for JGR.

Denny Hamlin: Hidden in his 18.8 average finish are a pair of third-place Kentucky finishes, including last year's race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: His up-and-down season definitely needs an "up." At times, Earnhardt has shown the capability to run upfront but his record doesn’t show it. He does own a pair of top-five Kentucky finishes.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
John Singler: Denny Hamlin
Jeff Wackerlin: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Brad Keselowski

Drivers to Watch - Kentucky
By Sportsbook.ag

Brad Keselowski will be looking to build upon last week’s win with a top finish at the Quaker State 400 in Kentucky on Saturday.

The race will take place at Kentucky Speedway, which is a 1.5-mile course with a standard four turns.

One thing worth noting is that this is a relatively new event, as it was established in 2011. There are, however, already two multiple winners, as Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch have both won this race twice. Busch won it in 2011 and then again last year, and Keselowski won in both 2012 and 2014.

With Matt Kenseth having won in 2013, Joe Gibbs Racing now has three of the five victories at this event. All three of those wins came in a car manufactured by Toyota, and Keselowski actually won driving a Dodge in 2012 and a Ford in 2014.

With that information out of the way, let’s now take a look at which driver might be heading to victory lane Saturday night:

Drivers to Watch

Kyle Busch (9/2) - Busch is the favorite to win this race and it’s for good reason. As previously mentioned, he has already won this race twice in his career and he also happens to be the defending champion coming into this year’s installment. Busch has been dominant in Kentucky in his career, as he has racked up an average finish of 3.8. He also wrecked in a non-Sprint Cup race on Thursday and that should fuel him coming into this one. While the odds are not very favorable for Busch, it’s worth putting a few units on him and then taking another guy with a higher upside to pair him up with on Saturday.

Brad Keselowski (7/1) - If you’re looking for another driver that has thrived in Kentucky then look no further. Keselowski, like Busch, has been excellent at this event, winning in both 2012 and 2014. He also happens to be entering this weekend in tremendous form. Keselowski won the Coke Zero 400 last week and has finished outside the top-10 just once in the past eight races. With three victories on the year, this is shaping up to be one of his best Sprint Cup seasons and he will certainly be hoping to win his fourth race on Saturday. He has been just as good as Busch on this track and is receiving better odds at +700.

Denny Hamlin (14/1) - Denny Hamlin won the first even of the year, but that was his only victory on the season. He has, however, been pretty good this year, finishing in the top-five on five separate occasions. The main reason to look into taking Hamlin this race is that he is coming into it with some serious momentum. Last year, Hamlin finished third at this event and it was his second time doing so. He’ll definitely be hoping to improve upon that finish and that just might be exactly what he does on Saturday. Hamlin had the fastest lap of any driver in the second practice session for this tournament and has looked good while preparing this week. He’s a very good value at this price, and he’ll just need to avoid the major mistake in this one.

Tony Stewart (40/1) - There are not many good dark horse candidates this week, but one guy to keep an eye on is Tony Stewart. Stewart is getting some ridiculously favorable odds at 40-to-1 and that is unheard of for a driver with his body of work. Stewart also happens to be having a good season for a guy that is retiring after the year. He has three top-10 finishes on the season and won the Toyota/Save Mart 350 two races ago. With this being one of the only races he has never won, expect a motivated Stewart on Saturday. It may not be enough for him to get the win, but he’s worthy of a half-unit or so.