Quicken Loans 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It’s do or die time for seven drivers at Phoenix trying to make the final three Chase positions and go for the Sprint Cup next week at Homestead. Will Joey Logano rebound and advance by winning? Can Brad Keselowski bounce back after a disappointing finish at Texas? And can Kevin Harvick keep his momentum going and hopes alive to win a second straight title?
Sunday’s race is like the NFL Conference Championship weekend where half the teams are done and the other half advance to the Super Bowl. The stakes are high and the drama will be amazing to watch unfold, which should keep you gripped for all 312 laps.
Jeff Gordon is the only driver to have already advanced by virtue of his Martinsville win two weeks ago. Jimmie Johnson, who isn’t one of the eight eligible drivers, played the spoiler by winning at Texas and keeping one of those automatic bids from going to a Chase driver. Brad Keselowski led 312 laps at Texas, but not the last one as Johnson’s car flew by him with six laps to go.
Before handicapping this week's race at Phoenix, you need to kind of change your thought process from the past few weeks on 1.5-mile tracks and get back to thinking about what happened on the smaller flat tracks at Richmond, New Hampshire, and of course Phoenix back in March. The trends between those three tracks hold true year after -- if a driver does well on one, they do well on all three. The three tracks aren’t configured the same and are all from ¾-mile to a mile in distance, but the set-up requirements are similar for each.
Or you could just say, ’forget all the notes and results sheets, I’m going with Kevin Harvick’ and that’s not a bad strategy either, considering he’s won the past four races at Phoenix.
Yes, he’s won the past four races at Phoenix.
It’s an amazing run we don’t see in today’s NASCAR with the ever-changing cars and for Harvick, he hasn’t just had mandated NASCAR car changes over the past couple years, he’s actually switched teams as well. He’s won at Phoenix four times with Richard Childress Racing and three times with Stewart Haas Racing -- the last three. Will he do it again? It’s hard to bet against him, but it’s also hard to take only 5/2 odds to win a NASCAR race, even as great as Harvick has been.
Last season Harvick had the pressure of having to win to advance to Homestead, and he’d go on to win at Homestead for the championship the following week as well. He’s not in quite as rough a situation as he was then, but he can clinch by finishing second or better no matter what anyone else does or lead the most laps and finish fourth.
In fact, Gordon is the only driver really safe this week. Kyle Busch has almost the same situation as Harvick to advance and everyone else is kind of in that boat where they only control their own destiny by winning.
The good news for the rest of the Chase field is that Matt Kenseth will be serving the last of his two-race suspension for his role in ending Joey Logano’s day at Martinsville. Kenseth has only one win at Phoenix, but his team was dialed in with Richmond and New Hampshire wins in September -- the last two races on these type of tracks. With Kenseth out of the mix, it gives several other drivers a better chance to beat Harvick. But watch out for Kenseth’s replacement Erik Jones at 30/1 odds who might take the sweet set-up to a strong finish.
Kyle Busch has a 2005 Phoenix win to his credit, but missed the spring race with a leg injury. He was strong at New Hampshire in July with a win. That‘s three straight wins on these type of tracks by Joe Gibbs Racing.
Carl Edwards is a two-time Phoenix winner and finished fifth in the last New Hampshire race. He’s also won four times in the Xfinity series. He’s only 7 points behind Martin Truex Jr. for the fourth and final Championship 4 position.
Johnson could play spoiler again and make things real interesting for the Chase. Johnson has four Phoenix wins and also has a track best 7.8 average finish in 24 starts.
And wouldn’t it be something to see Gordon win at Phoenix again and hog up two of the Eliminator Round wins. He’s won at Phoenix twice and has a 10.9 average finish in 33 starts.
Realistically, Harvick is still the man. He’s got the pressure on him to win, he’s the defending champion, and oh yeah, he’s won at Phoenix four straight races.
Last week I was really impressed by what he did at Texas when his gear shifter broke and he drove with one hand while holding the shifter with his other hand so it didn’t jump out of gear. And he did it so effortlessly like he was just on a Sunday drive down the parkway. It was a championship-type moment that showed why he really is the best in the series.
He brings his lunch pail to work, wears a hard hat, knows his job, works his tail off and don’t take no guff from anyone. What’s not to like about Harvick, other than his low odds this week?
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/2)
2) #41 Kurt Busch (12/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
5) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
Driver Handicaps: Phoenix
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
MRN.com's detailed notes and statistics to help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
Who's HOT at Phoenix
• Kevin Harvick is coming off his fourth consecutive win and fifth overall in the last six races.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in the last four races.
• Brad Keselowski and Jeff Gordon have posted respective average finishes of 4.3 and 5.3 in the last three races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished eighth or better in four of his last five starts.
• Besides Harvick, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne have the only wins on the current track surface.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Phoenix
• Kyle Busch is second in laps led (289) and has posted four top 10s in seven starts since Phoenix was repaved.
• Ryan Newman has the fifth-best average finish (7.8) in the last four races at Phoenix.
• Kurt Busch has finished seventh or better in his last two Phoenix starts with Stewart-Haas Racing.
• Greg Biffle (13.2) and Jimmie Johnson (13.9) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the eight races since Phoenix was repaved.
• Martin Truex Jr. finished seventh in the spring at Phoenix.
• AJ Allmendinger, Kurt Busch, Keselowski and Matt Kenseth, who will be replaced by Erik Jones this weekend, participated in the Goodyear tire test last month. Busch and Keselowski also joined Truex, Newman, Jamie McMurray and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for the open test at PIR.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Brad Keselowski
Pete Pistone: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Carl Edwards
Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Five Races at Phoenix
Kevin Harvick has won the last four races at Phoenix and has dominated those events, combining to lead 782 laps. Ninety-one percent of his laps led in the four races have come in his three starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 841) that he led 224 laps with in the spring at PIR.
Brad Keselowski has finished sixth or better in six of the last seven races at Phoenix. This spring, Keselowski led 52 laps and finished sixth. Last month, Keselowski took part in the Goodyear Tire and open test session at PIR.
Jeff Gordon, who will have the Phoenix track named after him on Sunday, has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts there. Gordon's last of two wins at the 1-mile oval came in the 2011 spring race, the last race on the old track surface. Last month, Gordon participated in the open test at Phoenix.
Joey Logano is the only driver besides Kevin Harvick that has finished in the top 10 in the last four races at Phoenix. He also ranks second in laps led (156) in that span. Logano's teammate, Brad Keselowski, tested at Phoenix last month.
Kasey Kahne's fourth-place finish in the spring at Phoenix equaled his best finish he's scored this year - three times total. The finish is one of three top fives in seven track starts with Hendrick Motorsports. Kahne's only win at PIR came in this event in 2011 - the first race since the track was repaved and reconfigured - with Red Bull Racing.
Carl Edwards finished 13th in his first Phoenix start with Joe Gibbs Racing in the spring. In his previous 21 starts with Roush Fenway Racing, Edwards recorded 12 top 10s, including two wins last coming in spring of 2013.
Jimmie Johnson is a four-time Phoenix winner, but has yet to take the checkered flag since the track was reconfigured and repaved in 2011. An accident in this event last year snapped a streak of three consecutive finishes of sixth or better. This past spring, Johnson finished 11th.
Matt Kenseth will not race this weekend at Phoenix as he serves his final of a two-race suspension. Kenseth did participate in the Goodyear tire and open test session last month to provide data for the Joe Gibbs Racing team. Erik Jones will once again sub for Kenseth.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. snapped a streak of four consecutive finishes of eighth or better in the spring at Phoenix after an accident relegated him to a 43rd-place finish.
Jamie McMurray finished second in the spring for his best finish in 24 starts at Phoenix. The finish was one of two top 10s in the last three races where he has an average finish of 8.7, which ranks sixth among all drivers in the span. McMurray will look to continue his recent success at PIR after participating in the open test last month.
Ryan Newman finished third in the spring to help give him the fifth-best average finish in the last four races at Phoenix. Newman, who won the 2010 spring race, will return in the same car (chassis No. 511) that he last finished eighth with at Michigan International Speedway and tested at PIR last month.
Kyle Larson has posted a 14.3 average finish at Phoenix. His 10th-place finish in the spring is his best in three starts.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. equaled his best finish in five starts at Phoenix in the spring, in 12th. Stenhouse did participate in the open test last month at PIR.
Denny Hamlin has finished in the top five in two of the four fall races since Phoenix was repaved and reconfigured. Hamlin does have one win on the new pavement, coming in the 2012 spring race.
Kurt Busch has finished seventh or better in his last two Phoenix starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch does have one win on PIR's old surface in 2005 with Roush Fenway Racing. Busch was one of the drivers that participated in both the Goodyear tire and open test last month at Phoenix.
Greg Biffle has finished 13th or better in the last five fall races at Phoenix. Biffle finished 27th in the spring due to a loose wheel late in the race put him one lap down.
Martin Truex Jr. finished seventh in the spring for his third top 10 - first with Furniture Row Racing - since Phoenix was repaved/reconfigured. Truex, who has posted a 13.7 average finish in his three Phoenix starts with PIR, participated in the open test last month.
Aric Almirola has yet to finish in the top 10 in nine Phoenix starts. His best finish came in the 2012 spring race, in 12th.
AJ Allmendinger has posted a 19.7 average finish in three Phoenix starts with JTG-Daugherty Racing. His last of two top 10s in 12 overall starts came in the 2011 fall race - the first on PIR's current surface - with Richard Petty Motorsports. Allmendinger did participate in the Goodyear tire test last month.
Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 four times since Phoenix was repaved/reconfigured in 2011. Busch did not race in the spring due to injury. His only Phoenix win came back in 2005 on the old track surface when he drove for Hendrick Motorsports.