Race for the Cup
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
With seven races to go on the NASCAR Sprint Cup season, it’s a good time to start searching for season championship odds to win. Many people come into the season with an opinion based against what the bookmaker thinks in their opinion and then wager accordingly. By now, most books have adjusted their odds considerably based on what has happened over the course of the first half of the season and also what supply and demand has dictated.
Sometimes the odds on the season futures are simply by action with absolutely no opinion put into it. The first bookmakers always preached booking only to the money and leaving the opinion to the guys trying to beat the juice installed in the odds. In booking futures, the book should always win to the index. A fair theoretic hold to a NASCAR index right now would be from 28% to 38% considering there really are only about five drivers outside the top 12 that have a legitimate, or semi-legitimate, chance of making the chase.
Kyle Busch is the resounding 2/1 favorite right now because of opinion, facts, and demand. He has shown he is capable of winning on all types of tracks which puts him in an elite class during the chase that is filled with every type of track except a road course. The one down fall for Busch down the stretch is that he doesn’t know how to let up. He goes for it all the time and in a 10-race format that essentially preaches consistency and finishing races, his strength could hurt him. He has already experienced some bad luck and has been immune to any type of slump, so maybe this is his year to shine and join his brother Kurt as a season Champion.
Another driver that has traditionally fared well in the last 10 races is Tony Stewart.
A question to ponder - Do you think because Stewart is leaving Joe Gibbs after the season that he’ll get the Toyota Ponypower parts rather than the Toyota horsepower parts? I can’t see a man of Gibbs stature doing that to the entire team despite Gibbs not being happy about releasing Stewart a year early. However, we have seen Gibbs in the past miraculously revive a couple cars in his stable that were on their deathbed.
Remember when Jason Leffler drove the No. 11 car to the worst finish in Gibbs history? The very next year a rookie named Denny Hamlin swept Pocono in that car. Hamlin’s good, but Leffler isn’t that bad. How about J.J. Yeley’s plight the last few years in the No. 18 car? That car was almost as bad as Leffler’s. Kyle Busch comes along and is now King of the series.
Granted, two major things happened over that span, in particular last season. One is that Joe Gibbs became more involved and the other is that Toyota came on board last season. But, do you really want Stewart snooping around the garage and giving him a shot at stealing stuff for his team that he’s going to own 50% of? He may have something in his clause that forbids him from that kind of thing, but how can they prove it?
In most major businesses, if an important part of an organization says they are giving notice and ask for a release, and the person in charge of the requestor grants the request, the next action is always, “Forget the notice, go ahead and leave today”. You can’t have someone who will be your competitor next year taking notes in your garage and give him a better chance at winning.
The only reason I could see Gibbs allow Stewart to stay is financial reasons. Stewart has a chance to win race purses and season purses that include bonuses to the entire No. 20 staff. Not to say that someone like Jason Leffler couldn’t jump in and do well in Stewart’s car, but morale would likely be down in the garage and pit road. There also is the expectation of the sponsor. Does Home Depot deserve to get shoved further down in the standings and home improvement wars?
Keep a close eye on Stewart over the next few weeks and see what happens. We’ll be back next week with a preview to the Brickyard 400.