Samsung 500 PostQ
Matt Kenseth held onto the top spot on the PostQ forecast from the PreQ forecast due in large part to his past performance at Texas Motor Speedway. After a very rough day at Martinsville Kenseth is more than happy to be in the Lone Star state at a track where he has performed very well at in career. In 11 starts he has a win and six top 10s including back-to-back runner-up finishes last season. He qualified in the top 10, which is a rare feat for the #17 DeWalt Chevrolet team, and have looked strong in the practice sessions. Kenseth is searching for his first win of the season and has a good chance of making the trip to victory lane in the Samsung 500.
In nine seasons Dale Earnhardt Jr. has recorded just seven poles so it is no small accomplishment that Junior is sitting on the pole this weekend. This is just his second time in the last five seasons in which he will lead the field to the green flag and Junior is expecting a strong run at Texas – the track where he posted his first career win. Hendrick Motorsports got back on track last weekend at Martinsville with all four cars finishing in the top 10. The organization is still searching for its first win of the season and Junior could be the driver to get there first – look out for the #88 Mountain Dew Chevrolet.
Although he does have a win at Texas this track has not been all that kind to Greg Biffle. In eight career starts he has just one other top 10 finish with an average finish of 25th place. The 2008 season, however, has been a whole new game for Biffle. It is also a “contract” year for the driver and Biffle is showing that he deserves a deal as he sits 3rd in the point standings with four top 10s and zero finishes outside the top 20 in the first six races of the year. Biffle should be in store for a big day at Texas as all of the Roush Fenway Racing cars have looked good throughout qualifying and practice. Jump on the RFR bandwagon for this race.
One driver that has had a rough weekend so far is Jeff Gordon. Gordon was among the slowest cars in the practice sessions on Saturday. He has struggled throughout the weekend qualifying well back in the pack (39th) and ranks dead last on the Speed chart, which is very, very unusual for the #24 DuPont Chevrolet team. While Gordon will likely get better throughout the race he is just too risky to take a chance on this weekend. We recommend staying away from Gordon for this event.
Petty Enterprises has gotten off to a slow start this season. Kyle Petty is outside the top 35 in the point standings and stepped out of the car for this race after failing to qualify at Martinsville. Chad McCumbee then failed to make the race this weekend. That has left teammate Bobby Labonte carrying the load and the #43 Cheerios Dodge has struggled. Labonte sits 21st in the point standings but has finished outside the top 20 in the last two events and has not looked good at all this weekend. He qualified in the 30th position and has been among the slowest cars in the practice sessions. Many expect that Labonte will get Petty Enterprises and the famed #43 back into victory lane this season but that will not occur this weekend.
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Samsung 500 Preview
Jeff Burton holds down the lead in the Sprint Cup Series standings as he and his fellow drivers head to Texas Motor Speedway for this weekend's running of the Samsung 500.
Burton picked up a third-place result in last Sunday's Goody's Cool Orange 500 at Martinsville Speedway, which boosted him three spots into first place in the current driver standings. Burton has one win, three Top-5 results, and four Top 10s in six races.
Denny Hamlin visited victory lane at Martinsville, as the Toyota driver held off Jeff Gordon for the win. Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart finished behind Burton to round out the day's Top 5, while Dale Earnhardt Jr., Casey Mears, Jamie McMurray, Carl Edwards, and Clint Bowyer also wound up with Top-10 results in the Cool Orange 500.
David Ragan and Kevin Harvick ended up just behind those drivers in 11th and 12th place, respectively, while Kasey Kahne had to settle for a 17th-place finish. Ryan Newman was 19th at Martinsville, Greg Biffle was 20th, and Martin Truex Jr. was 21st. Matt Kenseth ended up in 30th, Kurt Busch ended up 33rd, and Kyle Busch fell to 38th.
That result by Kyle Busch dropped him four spots to fifth place in the driver standings, where he now trails Burton, Harvick, Biffle, and Earnhardt Jr. Stewart, Kahne, Hamlin, Gordon, Johnson, Newman, and Bowyer make up the rest of the Top 12 after six races. Kenseth fell four spots to 15th place, and Kurt Busch dropped six spots to now sit 16th.
Burton won the Samsung 500 last year (with Kenseth, Mark Martin, Gordon, and McMurray rounding out the Top 5), and he also won the Interstate Batteries 500 at Texas Motor Speedway back in 1997. Johnson won the Dickies 500 on that track in 2007, while Stewart and Kahne took checkered flags in the Texas races held in 2006.
Edwards and Biffle won events at Texas in 2005. Other drivers with career victories at the Fort Worth track include Elliott Sadler, Newman, Kenseth, Earnhardt Jr., and Martin.
The Vegas oddsmakers think Kyle Busch can brush off last week's disappointing effort and come up big this weekend - he's tied with Earnhardt Jr. and Edwards as the 7/1 favorite to win the Samsung 500. Stewart is just behind that group at 8/1 odds, with Gordon at 9/1 odds, and Johnson at 10/1 odds. The top tier of contenders for the race is then rounded out with the trio of Biffle, Kenseth, and Hamlin, who are listed at 12/1 odds.
Burton is farther back at 20/1 odds, where he's tied with Kurt Busch, while Harvick is sitting at 22/1 odds, and Kahne and Bowyer are sitting at 25/1 odds. Newman has been given 30/1 odds to take the checkered flag this weekend, with Martin just behind him at 35/1, and each of Mears, Truex Jr., and McMurray a step back of those two at 40/1 odds.
Earnhardt Jr. opened at 8/1 odds to win the Sprint Cup this year, but he's now pegged as the 7/2 Vegas favorite to be crowned the champion. Johnson, Stewart, and Kyle Busch are next at 5/1 odds, with Gordon at 6/1, Edwards at 7/1, and Biffle at 8/1. Each of Kenseth, Hamlin, and Harvick are pegged at 12/1, with Burton behind them at 15/1.
After racing in the Samsung 500 the drivers of the Sprint Cup Series will head to Phoenix for the Subway Fresh Fit 500. April's schedule then ends with the Aaron's 499.
Edwards wins in overtime at TMS
Fort Worth, TX (Sports Network) - Carl Edwards had to go a few extra laps, but the outcome was rarely in doubt over the last 100 laps as he won Sunday's Samsung 500 at the Texas Motor Speedway. The No.99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford crossed the finish line 0.399 seconds ahead of Jimmie Johnson.
The victory was Edwards' third of the season and 10th of his Sprint Cup career.
Edwards hung around the top-10 for the first half of the race, but when it was time to go, no one could handle the No.99 Ford. He took the lead from Johnson on lap 233 and led the final 106 laps to take the victory.
Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin completed the top-five. Other drivers of note and their unofficial finishing positions: points leader Jeff Burton (sixth), Tony Stewart (seventh), Matt Kenseth (ninth), Kevin Harvick (11th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12th) and Jeff Gordon (43rd).
"I appreciate my fans sticking behind me," said Edwards, referring to the 100- point penalty he received after his win in Las Vegas. "This was fun.
"He was better than us there at the end," said Johnson.
Earnhardt Jr., the pole winner, quickly jumped out in front as Edwards fell into line between the No.88 and Busch. Busch, however, wasn't satisfied with just sitting in line and on lap 14 got past "Junior" for the lead. Busch quickly built the lead to more than two seconds.
Going in the opposite direction was Gordon. He was complaining of brake and handling problems and dropped from 18th on the starting grid to 34th after 25 laps.
A caution flag and the No.88 pit crew got Earnhardt Jr. back out front for the restart, just ahead of Johnson, Busch and Edwards. Johnson earned his five- point bonus when he got around Earnhardt Jr. on lap 47. He built a lead of around one second on Busch, Earnhardt Jr. and Edwards.
The top-three cars, sans Earnhardt Jr. began to pull away from the field. They were already lapping slower cars including: Michael Waltrip and Jeremy Mayfield. The next on the list was Gordon, who still had not improved after the first pit stop. On lap 69 Johnson put his teammate (and co-owner) down a lap. After 100 laps the leaders had lapped all except the first 21 cars.
Busch was having trouble keeping up with Johnson's pace and fell five seconds back, although still in third place. Only Edwards was within one second of the No.48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.
Then Gordon spun to bring out the caution flag on lap 109 and slow the race to 55 m.p.h. Gordon got out of the car and took interviews as it was a long repair process to get him back onto the track. he final returned some 100 laps later, but finished dead last.
After the pit stops, the No.17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford of Matt Kenseth took over. He led 22 laps until a debris caution on lap 131 again slowed the field. The pit crew again did their job getting Kenseth out first. At the mid-point, lap 167, it was Kenseth leading Johnson by half-a-second and Busch by 2.5 seconds.
Another caution flag and this time Kenseth's crew was a little slow letting Busch, Edwards and Denny Hamlin get past him. Kenseth was definitely slower after the restart and couldn't keep up with Busch, Edwards and Johnson as the field crossed the 200-lap mark.
Edwards and Johnson both passed Busch, but it was still looked like a three- man race with 100 laps to go. Then Edwards put it in another gear and even Johnson and Busch couldn't keep up.
The No.99 Roush Ford flew around the track and by lap 275 his lead was eight seconds on Johnson and 11 seconds on Busch. He had lapped all but 11 cars including Earnhardt Jr., the pole winner.
Edwards made a stop with 51 laps to go, making no changes. He returned to the track with almost all of his eight-second lead in tact. Barring a caution flag this was Edwards' race.
Then on lap 294, the one thing that Edwards didn't want to see - a caution flag. Out went his seven plus-second lead and we had a race again. All 10 of the remaining lead-lap drivers pitted for new tires.
They came off pit lane with Edwards on top, followed by Johnson, Busch and Martin Truex Jr. who took just two right-side tires to gain four spots.
Busch went between Johnson and a lapped car to grab second from Johnson, but Johnson came right back on the next lap to take second again. But while Busch and Johnson were fighting for second, Edwards was pulling away.
The No.99 had a one-second lead with 30 laps to go. It was close to two second with 20 laps to go and only a mistake or an engine failure could keep Edwards out of Victory Lane.
A caution flag (Truex Jr. engine failure) with five laps to go gave Johnson one last hope. There would be just two laps to go when they got the green flag.
But Edwards got off to a good jump and Johnson could never even get close enough to pressure Edwards much less make a passing attempt.
Burton's sixth-place finish gives him a 59-point lead over Harvick heading into next Saturday night's race in Phoenix. With the win Edwards moved up to 10th overall.