Sharpie 500 News and Notes

Sharpie 500 PreQ

Although he has a series high four wins on the season Mark Martin is battling for a spot in the Chase for the Championship. Martin finished in the 31st position at Michigan last weekend. This was after a 23rd place finish at Watkins Glen. Those two finishes dropped Martin to 12th in the point standings just 12 points ahead of Brian Vickers. Martin desperately needs a solid run at Bristol Motor Speedway and that could be the case if our PreQ forecast holds true. Martin has run very well at Bristol in his career but it is not necessarily his favorite track. In his “retirement” years Martin would not run at Bristol. Earlier this season he finished in the 6th position. We expect more of the same out of the #5 Kellogg’s Chevrolet in the Sharpie 500.

Clint Bowyer, as well as most of the Richard Childress Racing drivers, has been struggling this season. Bowyer, however, has been on a pretty good streak as of late posting three consecutive top 10 finishes as he moved into the 14th position in the point standings and within striking distance of making the Chase. He could make up some more ground this weekend at Bristol where he has recorded four top 10s in seven career starts. With the exception of his rookie season in which he finished outside the top 20 both races he has never finished outside the top 15. Bowyer could fight his way into the Chase but needs a big day (err night) at Bristol this weekend. Keep the #33 Cheerios Chevrolet in mind when setting your lineup.

Brian Vickers posted his first win of the season last weekend at Michigan and just the second win of his career. He is now just 12 points behind Mark Martin for the final transfer spot to make the Chase. There is one problem though for Vickers and that is that Bristol is next up on the schedule. Vickers has never finished in the top 10 in 10 career starts at the track with an average finish of 26th place. In those 10 career starts he has finished in 20th place or worse eight times. Although things have been looking up for the #83 Red Bull Toyota Vickers gets the “Buyer Beware” label for this race.

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Sharpie 500 Driver Ratng

Only three races remain before the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, which means only 30 potential Chase bonus points are left to be had. The top seed in the Chase is still up for grabs. Mark Martin, the current leader with 40 potential bonus points, is tip-toeing the cut-off line, 12 points ahead of 13th-place Brian Vickers. That leaves Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. Stewart, who clinched a Chase berth at Michigan, has three wins for 30 bonus points. Johnson also has 30 points, and has a solid shot at clinching at Bristol. Statistically, Stewart is the favorite of the two for Bristol’s 10 bonus points. Though finishing in the top 10 in just two of the last seven races, Stewart’s results are deceiving. In the last seven Bristol starts, Stewart has an average finish of 16.0. The numbers improve from there: a Driver Rating of 101.5, an Average Running Position of 11.8, 206 Fastest Laps Run and 769 Laps Led. Much of the reason for the poor finishes is bad luck. In three of the last seven, Stewart has led more than 200 laps – and finished in the top 10 in none of them. In March of 2006, he led 245 laps and finished 12th. In March of 2007, he finished 35th after leading 257 laps. Finally, in last year’s March race, he led 267 laps in a 14th-place finish. The same can’t be said for Johnson, who struggles at Bristol. Since 2005, Bristol is statistically Johnson’s worst track. His 78.7 Driver Rating makes Bristol his worst track – by a healthy margin. Johnson’s second-worst track in terms of Driver Rating is Infineon Raceway (80.4). None of his key statistics rank in the top 10. Johnson’s Driver Rating is 18th-best, his Average Running Position of 16.8 is 18th-best, his 99 Fastest Laps Run is 14th-best and his Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 59.3% is 14th-best. But, Johnson is coming off his best Bristol finish. In a third-place finish in March, he scored a Driver Rating of 123.6, an Average Running Position of 2.2, 37 Fastest Laps Run, 88 Laps Led and ran all 503 laps in the top 15.

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Sharpie 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series first visited Bristol Motor Speedway in Week 5, Kyle Busch had gained his second win of the young season and looked to be picking up where he left off in 2008 that saw him win eight races and dominate the season prior to his disastrous Chase run.

However, things have gone seriously south for the young, brash Las Vegan. Ever since that Bristol win in Week 5, Busch has plummeted in points like a heavy rock in the depths of Lake Mead. Following Week 5 where Busch was fourth in points with two wins and three Top-5 finishes.

Since then Busch has only one more win and two Top-5 finishes heading into race 24 of the season this week at Bristol. He currently finds himself outside looking into the Chase in 15th position, 70 points out of the 12th and final position. Last season at this juncture he was leading the entire series in points and had eight win along with 14 Top-5 finishes.

My how things have changed and there really isn’t any explanation for the drop off. Busch continues to dominate the Nationwide Series with consistent abandon week after week while leading the points in that series.

70 points is a lot of points to come back from in order to make the chase, but it isn’t the biggest deficit in Chase history with three races remaining. In 2005, Matt Kenseth came back to make the Chase while being 100 points behind.

Busch has the benefit in the final three races before judgment day of racing on tracks he’s done well at beginning this week at Bristol where he won in week five. In the next race, the Series visits Atlanta where he won last season in the spring and then had one of his best finishes of the chase in fall with a fifth there.

In the final Race to the Chase at Richmond, Busch should also have an advantage because it’s the sight of his last win coming in early May in Week 10. He needed a better performance at Michigan last week, but of all the drivers sitting 12th through 15th, Busch looks to have the best chance of making the NASCAR’s version of the playoffs despite being so far back.

This weeks race at Bristol starts this run off with it’s new brand of Bristol racing which resembles a shorter Dover now. Since changing the most unique fast short track in the world, Bristol racing isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still under the lights with almost 200,000 fans hovering above the track, so the excitement level is still sure to be there.

In four weeks, the Chase will be set and three of the current contenders will be left out. Just who might those drivers be? Here are some notes on the contenders and how they may do for the next three races based on a mix of how they are currently going, how they have done on the tracks this year and beyond, and how they reacted under pressure in the past.

7) Juan Pablo Montoya - 2887 pts: He ended his streak of nine straight Top-12 finishes last week, but has been a model of consistency all season. He is sitting nice right now and should be real good at the short tracks of Richmond and Bristol where he had Top-10 finishes there in the spring.

8) Kasey Kahne - 2884 pts: Of all the drivers currently in the Chase, he is a good candidate to make it despite being in eighth. Kahne has melted under pressure down the stretch in two of his three Chase runs over his career including last season. He’s only made the chase once in his five years on tour. Earlier this year at Richmond, where he has to perform well at, he had a 29th.

9) Ryan Newman - 2845 pts: He has been up and down all year, but his downs haven’t too bad. His best run of the season came in the spring when the series visited Bristol and Richmond where he ran well during a ten race stretch where he had five Top-5 finishes along with three other Top-10’s. Newman should be good to in making it.

10) Greg Biffle - 2821 pts: He needed a much better run at Michigan to increase his chances of making because now he’s only got Atlanta where he runs very well at. He didn’t run well at Bristol and Richmond in the spring. He should be in, but he’s cutting in close.

11) Matt Kenseth - 2811 pts: Following his back to back wins to start the season at Daytona and California, he has been worse than mediocre and is fortunate to be where he’s at right now. He actually moved a position because of Martin’s poor run last week, but he is not safe at all. He has always run well on these tracks coming up, but this isn’t the same team as in past years. He has never missed the Chase, but is a top candidate to miss it this year.

12) Mark Martin - 2791 pts: He should run very well at all three tracks coming up, but that was supposed to be the case last week at Michigan where he had a great car. He should never be in this position considering how dominant he’s been, but because he’s finished 31st of worse in seven of the 23 races thus far, he’s an all or nothing case. America would like to hope he’s in; who can’t root for a 50 year old to win his first title ever?

13) Brian Vickers - 2779 (-12 pts behind): He’s sitting a nice place right now and wiped off 84 points of deficit with his win last week. His biggest climb will come at Richmond and Bristol where he has been beat up in the past. He may contend for the Atlanta win, but if he doesn’t get Top-10’s or close, he’ll be hard pressed to make it. One positive is that he ran well at Richmond in May where his 15th place was his best run there since his rookie season.

14) Clint Bowyer - 2733 (-58 pts behind): This guy knows how to play the game and just happens to run well at all the tracks coming up, especially Richmond and Bristol. He ran a solid eighth last week and likely will run similarly the same in the next three which will likely get him in. He was in the same position last season and ran down Kahne and beat him out in a very cool and calm demeanor it takes to make it when outside looking in.

15) Kyle Busch 2721 (-70 points behind): The good news is that he won at Bristol and Richmond in the spring, the bad news is that he’s only had one top-5 finish since winning at Richmond in May, a span of 13 races. This will be the most compelling and dramatically story for the next three weeks because we have a chance to see a great talent dig deep and race his way in, or we have a chance to see a great talent melt down and go crazy in front of the camera. His chances are slim of making it, but if anyone can do it, it is Kyle. He just needs to get his head straight and focus.

I’ll go against history and wisdom and look for Busch and Bowyer to make it with Kenseth and Kahne falling out.

This weeks race at Bristol takes on extra special piece of fun because of the double-file restarts which was not in place when the ran therein March. Look for the best Bristol race there since they made such a drastic change to the track two years ago.

TOP 5 Bristol Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
3) #39 Ryan Newman (20/1)
4) #14 Tony Stewart (7/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)

Driver Highlights - Bristol
VegasInsider.com

Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Bristol Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last eight races at Bristol. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Little Debbie/Kingsford/Clorox Toyota)

# One top 10
# Average finish of 10.0
# Series-best Average Running Position of 5.9
# Series-best Driver Rating of 108.4
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.456 mph

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

# Four top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 12.1
# Average Running Position of 12.0, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.0, sixth-best
# 193 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# 3,470 Laps in the Top 15 (76.9%), third-most
# 173 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

# Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 11.2
# Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 103.2, third-best
# Series-high 344 Fastest Laps Run
# 264 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.339 mph, third-fastest
# 2,896 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2%), sixth-most
# 156 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)

# Two wins, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.9
# Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 91.0, 10th-best
# 215 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.068 mph, 12th-fastest
# 3,180 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5%), fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)

# Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
# Average finish of 11.3
# Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
# Driver Rating of 103.8, second-best
# 164 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.331 mph, fourth-fastest
# Series-high 3,957 Laps in the Top 15 (87.7%)
# Series-high 174 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)

# Two top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 12.6
# Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 99.7, fifth-best
# 216 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# 263 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.443 mph, second-fastest
# 131 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)

# One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 10.8
# Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 97.1, eighth-best
# 165 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 306 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.285 mph, seventh-fastest
# 3,244 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), fourth-most
# 147 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)

# Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 19.3
# Driver Rating of 91.5, ninth-best
# 152 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 260 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
# 2,600 Laps in the Top 15 (57.6%), 13th-most
# 140 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)

# Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.3
# Average Running Position of 11.3, third-best
# Driver Rating of 97.7, seventh-best
# 224 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.177 mph, eighth-fastest
# 3,534 Laps in the Top 15 (78.3%), second-most
# 135 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)

# One win, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 16.4
# Average Running Position of 12.0, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 99.9, fourth-best
# 215 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 274 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 114.318 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,852 Laps in the Top 15 (63.2%), eighth-most
# 159 Quality Passes, third-most

Odds and Ends - Bristol
VegasInsider.com

Bristol Motor Speedway Data

Race #: 24 of 36 (8-22-09) Track Size: .533 miles
Race Length: 500 laps/266.5 miles
Banking/Corners: 26 to 30 degrees
Banking/Straights: 4 to 9 degrees

Driver Rating at Bristol

Marcos Ambrose* 108.4
Jeff Gordon 103.8
Kyle Busch 103.2
Tony Stewart 99.9
Denny Hamlin 99.7
Greg Biffle 98.0
Matt Kenseth 97.7
Kevin Harvick 97.1
Kasey Kahne 91.5
Carl Edwards 91.0

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (9 total) at Bristol.
* - Ambrose has run one Bristol race.

Qualifying/Race Data

2008 pole winner: Carl Edwards, 121.860 mph, 15.746 seconds
2008 race winner: Carl Edwards, 91.581 mph, 8-23-08)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (128.709 mph, 14.908 seconds, 3-21-03)
Track race record: Charlie Glotzbach (101.074 mph, 7-11-71)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 120-130 laps, based on fuel mileage.

Sharpie 500 HOT! Sheet

What a week it has been for Brian Vickers. He nearly won the Nationwide race on Saturday. Then he started on the pole on Sunday and wound up in victory lane after the Cup race. And to top it off, he signed a new contract to stay with Red Bull Racing in the #83 Toyota. With his recent performances it was well deserved. He has 5 top 10s in the last 6 races. Bristol hasn’t been too kind to him in the past, but he’s worth putting in your lineup.

Even a blown engine during practice couldn’t bring Kasey Kahne down. That’s what happened last weekend at Michigan, forcing the #9 car to start at the rear of the field. However, he managed to make his way up to 11th at the finish line. That continues his steady rise over the last 8 races. During that span, he has an 8.6 average finish. He has come real close to winning here in the past and he may do so this time around.

It has not been a very good year for Richard Childress Racing. But the bright spot has definitely been Clint Bowyer. The #33 team has positioned themselves with a challenge for a spot in the Chase by stringing together four top 10s in the last five events. At Pocono they had a season best 3rd place showing. That was followed up with a run from the back of the pack to 9th place on the road course. Last week he ended up 8th. Last year he led 81 laps before going home 3rd. Look for similar success on Saturday night.

Among those at the other end of the spectrum this week is Jamie McMurray. His season has pretty much been a disaster with only 3 top 10s all year. He hasn’t had one since the Richmond race at the beginning of May. More recently, he has an average finish of 27th place in the last five events. His best finish in that timeframe was 20th at Pocono. His track record isn’t very good here so stay away from him.

Another driver to keep your distance from is Reed Sorenson. He only has one top 10 this season, and that came in the very first race of the year at Daytona. The #43 team has only one top 15 in the last 13 events (13th – Brickyard). In the last three weeks, he has a 31.6 average finish. On a positive note, he did finally finish on the lead lap on Sunday at Michigan. But that’s not enough for consideration in any fantasy racing league.

ProFantasySports.com

Driver Handicaps: Bristol
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for Saturday's Sharpie 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 500-lap event.

Who's HOT at Bristol
• Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards each have two wins with the new car.
• Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch lead all drivers with five wins each.
• Kevin Harvick has one win and nine top fives.
• Denny Hamlin has posted an average finish of 3.7 in the last three races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the best average (9.0) finish over the past eight races.
• Tony Stewart has led 524 laps (second-most) with the new car.
• Mark Martin leads all active full-time drivers with 15 top-five finishes.

Keep an Eye on at Bristol
• Marcos Ambrose finished 10th in his series debut at Bristol in March.
• Greg Biffle has finished 11th or better in eight of his last 10 starts.
• Clint Bowyer has posted an average finish of 6.8 in his last five starts at Bristol.
• Kasey Kahne has led 305 laps in this event in 2007.
• Ryan Newman has a 6.5 average finish in the last two Bristol races.
• Jeff Burton has one win and three top 10s with the new car at Bristol.
• Two-time Bristol winner Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in two of the last three races.

RacingOne Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Denny Hamlin
Rachael West: Clint Bowyer
Kym Opalenik: Carl Edwards

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Bristol unless noted)

1. Tony Stewart: Winner of the 2001 summer race; Finished 17th in first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing in March; Scored seven top 10s in 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 425) that finished eighth at Atlanta.

2. Jeff Gordon: Five-time winner; Leads all drivers with 2,438 laps led; Posted an average finish of 8.4 with the new car; Has finished in the top five in last two starts.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Has posted an average finish of 18.2 with the new car; Finished third in March for seventh top 10; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 480) that equaled his career-best at the track in March.

4. Carl Edwards: Winner of the 2007 and 2008 summer races; Finished 15th in the spring; Has led 266 laps with the new car; Will race the same car (chassis No. 596) that finished seventh at Dover in May.

5. Denny Hamlin: Has posted an average finish of 3.7 in last three starts; Finished second in June; Has led 282 laps in seven starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 196) that finished fourth in May's All-Star race.

6. Kurt Busch: Five-time winner; Has posted one win and a sixth-place finish in seven starts with Penske Racing; Four other wins came with Roush Racing; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 611) in the Sharpie 500.

7. Juan Pablo Montoya: Captured first top 10 (ninth) in March; Will make sixth track start in the same car (chassis No. 818) that finished 12th at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in June.

8. Kasey Kahne: Recorded fourth top five in March after finishing fifth; Led 305 laps en route to a runner-up finish in this event in 2007.

9. Ryan Newman: Finished seventh in March in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing; Has finished in the top 10 in five of his last seven starts; Best finish (second) came in this event in 2004 with Team Penske.

10. Greg Biffle: Has captured seven top 10s in 13 starts; Qualified fourth and finished 39th in March after the engine expired; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 546) that raced in the spring and won at Dover in 2008.

11. Matt Kenseth: Winner of the 2005 and 2006 summer races; Has posted a 20.4 average finish with the new car; Has led 742 laps; Finished 33rd in the spring.

12. Mark Martin: Won the pole and finished sixth in track debut with Hendrick Motorsports in the spring; Previous 21 top 10s came with Roush Racing; Last of two victories came in 1998; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 500) that raced in March.

13. Brian Vickers: Has yet to post a top-10 finish in 10 starts; Posted an average finish of 25.8 in four starts with Team Red Bull; Best finish (12th) came with Hendrick Motorsports in the 2005 spring race.

14. Clint Bowyer: Has posted an average finish of 6.8 in last five starts; Best finish is third, where he has finished twice (August 2007 and March 2008); Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 268) that finished third at Pocono earlier this month.

15. Kyle Busch: Won the spring race from the 19th starting position; Has combined to lead 793 laps in the last two races; Won the 2007 spring race with Hendrick Motorports; Will make fourth track start with Joe Gibbs Racing in the same car (chassis No. 239) that finished 17th at Phoenix after a pit-road speeding penalty.

16. David Reutimann: Has posted an average finish of 19.0 in three starts; Best finish came in the spring in 12th.

17. Marcos Ambrose: Finished 10th in first start in March.

18. Jeff Burton: Winner of the 2008 spring race; Has recorded six top 10s with Richard Childress Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 243) that finished 42nd in this event last year after getting caught up in an accident.

19. Joey Logano: Finished 38th in March after the engine expired; Will make second track start in the same car (chassis No. 231) that finished 18th at Chicagoland.

20. Casey Mears: Finished 24th in first track start with Richard Childress Racing in March; Only top 10 in 13 overall starts came with Hendrick Motorsports in 2007; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 275) that finished ninth at Richmond in May.

21. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Has posted an average finish of 12.3 in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; His 8.4 average finish is best among all drivers in the last nine races; Scored one win and nine top 10s with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. in previous 16 starts; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 526) that finished 12th at Dover in May.

22. Jamie McMurray: Has posted an average finish of 27.3 in seven starts with Roush Fenway; Only top 10 (ninth) with the team came in the 2007 spring race; Scored three consecutive top 10s with Ganassi early in his career; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 603) that finished 13th at Pocono in June.

23. Kevin Harvick: Best track on the circuit with 10 or more starts based on average finish of 10.8; Has finished in the top five in five of the last nine races; Winner of the 2005 spring race; Will race the same car (chassis No. 192) that finished 17th at Dover in May.

24. Martin Truex Jr: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts; Best finish, of 11th, came in this event in 2007; Finished 26th in the spring after battling an ill-handling race car; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 804) that was on track during All-Star weekend.

25. AJ Allmendinger: Finished 16th in March in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports; Posted an average finish of 36.3 in previous three starts with Team Red Bull.

26. Sam Hornish Jr.: Posted an average finish of 32.3 in three starts; Finished 31st in the spring.

27. Elliott Sadler: Has posted an average finish of 27.7 in six starts with Richard Petty Motorsports (Evernham); Won the 2001 spring race from the furthest starting position (38th); Will have Wally Rogers as his new crew chief starting this weekend.

28. Reed Sorenson: Finished 23rd in March in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports; Has yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts.

29. Bobby Labonte: Finished 22nd in March in track debut with Hall of Fame Racing; Last of 10 top-10 finishes came in this event in 2007.

30. David Ragan: Has posted an average finish of 25.0 in five starts; Only top 10 came in this event last year; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 573) that finished 13th at Martinsville.

Top 5 Nascar Drivers to win Bristol Saturday night!
By Rocky Atkinson

The Sprint Cup boys move to Bristol this Saturday night for the 24th race of the season. Bristol Motor Speedway is a .533 mile Oval Track located in Bristol, Tennessee. Here are my Top 5 drivers to win in Bristol this weekend. We still have to wait for Qualifying and Happy Hour before finalizing our Head to Head matchups. Bristol is normally a very good money track for us!!

For starters, I think Jeff Gordon has the best shot of winning this race. Gordon has 5 wins, 14 Top 5 finishes and 20 Top 10 finishes in his 33 starts here in Bristol. Gordon has an average finish of 11.3 here in Bristol. Past two years, Jeff Gordon's average finish at track type - HIGH BANKED CONCRETE is 9.7. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 4 top 10 finishes. Jeff Gordon's average finish over the past 10 races is 10.3. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 8 top 10 finishes.

Next in line I would go with Kevin Harvick. Harvick has one win, 9 Top 5 finishes and 11 Top 10 finishes in 17 starts here in Bristol. Harvick has an average finish of 10.8 here in Bristol, which is 2nd best among all active drivers.

Then, back in my 3rd spot, I have to go with Kyle Busch. Kyle Busch has two wins, 4 Top 5 finishes and 6 Top 10 finishes in his 9 starts in Bristol. Kyle Busch has an average finish of 11.2 here in Bristol, which is 3rd best among all active drivers. Past 2 years, Kyle Busch's average finish at track type - HIGH BANKED CONCRETE is 14.5. In 6 races, he has 2 wins and 3 top 10 finishes.

Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Kurt Busch. Kurt Busch has five wins, 5 Top 5 finishes and 9 Top 10 finishes in his 17 starts in Bristol. Kurt Busch has an average finish of 14.2 in Bristol.

Rounding out my Top 5 and sitting in the 5th position is Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has two wins, seven Top 5 finishes and 11 Top 10 finishes in his 19 starts in Bristol. Kenseth has an average finish of 13.3 in Bristol. Past 2 years, Matt Kenseth's average finish at track type - HIGH BANKED CONCRETE is 10.3. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 5 top 10 finishes.

The odds for these drivers to win in Bristol currently at Bodog are:

#24 Jeff Gordon 8 to 1
#29 Kevin Harvick 20 to 1
#18 Kyle Busch 6 to 1
#2 Kurt Busch 10 to 1
#17 Matt Kenseth 22 to 1

Happy Hour at Bristol
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Jimmie Johnson doesn’t have a Bristol win among his 43 career NASCAR Sprint Cup wins, but after Friday’s final practice sessions for Saturday night’s Sharpie 500, he may well be on his way to crossing Bristol off his small list of tracks he’s never won at.

Johnson paced Happy Hour with a fast lap of 123.316 mph late in the session followed by Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, Jeff Gordon, and Greg Biffle to round out the top five.

Throughout the day during both practices, the track was extremely slick with several drivers almost hitting the wall coming out of the turns.

This will be the fifth race run on the new layout of Bristol. The banking was decreased by six degrees and in the process; it created an outside groove that that had never been there before. In the past, the only way to pass a stubborn driver in front of a faster car on the bottom was to bump him out of the way.

Those type of days appear to be gone, or at least diminished somewhat. Even though it’s still difficult to pass making start position as critical as it ever was, the additional groove has made the drivers less antsy, which in turn has lessoned the famous Bristol road rage.

The one change for this race that might see some good old fashioned Bristol Road Rage that we didn’t see as much of in the first four races since the change is the double-file restart. The bottom of the track is still the preferred spot, so the battle on each restart should be interesting to see.

Some of the top teams brought their Dover chassis’ from May rather than their March Bristol chassis’. The banking and grooves make it now similar to Dover in weight placement set-up despite Dover being twice as big in distance.

One of the few drivers to bring their Bristol chassis from the March race was Jimmie Johnson, who finished third in the spring tying his best career Bristol finish. The choice must have been a tough one for crew chief Chad Knaus since Johnson won at Dover in May in a different car.

Greg Biffle, who was fifth fastest in Friday’s Happy Hour, was one of the others to bring his Chassis from March’s Bristol race. However, the Dover connection is there because it’s the same chassis he won at Dover with last year in the fall. Biffle qualified well at Bristol in the spring but had engine trouble and finished 39th. Biffle should contend for the win Saturday night.

On an on going trend over the last few weeks has been the continued performance of Joey Logano in practice. He’s running with the upper-echelon of drivers and getting great times in single lap and average times. Friday was no different as he ran equally well on the high and low side for the seventh best overall time.

Meanwhile, as Logano runs well, his teammate, Kyle Busch, continues to struggle with his car.
Busch wasn’t happy at all in either practice session and almost flattened the back end while getting loose around one of the turns. The real mystery with Busch is why the team didn’t bring their winning chassis from the May Bristol race. They chose to bring their Phoenix car, which they ran well in, but the banking difference between the two tracks is pretty substantial.
It doesn’t look like Busch is equipped to run his best this week and the timing couldn’t be worse for him as he has only three races left to make up 70 points and make the chase.

Tony Stewart didn’t have a good practice at all, at least on the clock, and was 32nd quickest. On several occasions this season, Stewart has practiced much more than just being fast and his times on paper have suffered. However, when it comes to race day, Stewart has his game face on and usually gets himself a Top-5.

Stewart ran the most laps in Happy Hour by a substantial margin. He ran 99 laps and used the majority of both practice sessions in race trim.

Final Bristol Practice (Happy Hour)
1) Jimmie Johnson 123.316 mph - AVG 20 laps @ 120.856
2) Mark Martin 122.874 mph - AVG 6 laps @ 122.145
3) Marcos Ambrose 122.874 mph - AVG 46 laps @ 118.567
4) Jeff Gordon 122.858 mph - AVG 42 laps @ 117.119
5) Greg Biffle 122.803 mph - AVG 64 laps @ 117.598
6) Joey Logano 122.693 mph - AVG 64 laps @ 117.946
7) Scott Speed 122.646 mph - AVG 49 laps @ 118.266
8) David Reutimann 122.552 mph - AVG 46 laps @ 117.831
9) David Gilliland 122.435 mph - AVG 23 laps @ 118.653
10) Kurt Busch 122.435 mph - AVG 56 laps @ 117.711

First Bristol Practice Session
1) Martin Truex Jr 122.014 mph - AVG 65 laps @ 118.464
2) David Gilliland 121.798 mph - AVG 69 laps @ 117.548
3) Clint Bowyer 121.651 mph - AVG 73 laps @ 117.764
4) Aric Almirola 121.628 mph - AVG 25 laps @ 118.606
5) Scott Speed 121.605 mph - AVG 48 laps @ 117.226

Top 10 Driver Ratings at Bristol following all practices sessions (not qualifying), with a mix or the last four Bristol races, the last three Dover races, and current state of the team.
1) Greg Biffle
2) Jimmie Johnson
3) Kurt Busch
4) Jeff Gordon
5) Tony Stewart
6) Clint Bowyer
7) Denny Hamlin
8) Ryan Newman
9) Carl Edwards
10) Mark Martin

Sharpie 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

The fact that Mark Martin will start his 1,000th Sprint Cup Series race under the lights Saturday night at historic Bristol Motor Speedway for the Sharpie 500 won’t keep the “bubble boys”, Brian Vickers, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch, from ruining Martin’s dream season by taking the 12th and final spot in the Chase away from the “Old Man.”

A poor pit/fuel strategy last week at Michigan put Martin, who leads all NASCAR drivers with four wins -- which means 40 bonus points at the points reset if he makes the Chase -- this season, in this position in the first place. Martin led four times for 26 laps and could have won the race if he had not run out of gas on the last lap. This Saturday night I am sure Crew Chief Alan Gustafson won’t make the same mistake.

Qualifiers have rained out in two of the last seven races at Bristol, but keep in mind that if that happens this week then Tony Stewart will take the pole since he is the points leader. However, only one driver has won the Sharpie 500 in the last seven years as the pole-sitter, and that was Carl Edwards.

Who will win the 2009 Sharpie 500?

Kurt Busch is set at 10/1 to win the Sharpie 500 and is currently in sixth place in the NSCS standings. Busch is in good position to make the Chase with three races to go. However, last week at Michigan Busch was running in the Top 10 at lap 120 and wrecked the “Blue Deuce.” This week at Bristol I expect Busch to do enough not to wreck, but I don’t think he will take too many chances to actually win the race. With 166 points separating sixth-12th one more wreck and a few bad finishes could jeopardize Busch’s chances to make the Chase. Even though Busch has won at Bristol five times I see him playing it safe for the next three weeks and he is not worth your sports investment V-chip.

His brother, Kyle, is in a completely different position having fallen two spots last week in the NSCS standing to 15th place. Kyle is currently 70 points out of the Chase but should be inspired as he is one of the best active drivers at BMS. Kyle started 19th on the grid in the spring race at Bristol but shot to the front and led 378 of the 500 laps en route to his second win at Bristol.

How good is Busch at Bristol? In seven starts he has six Top-10 finishes, two wins and four Top-5s. He picks up an average of 13.4 spots during the races and has an average finish of 5.71. Busch started the 2009 season white-hot, winning three of the first 10 races, but since then Busch can’t buy a win. And if you missed Wednesday night’s truck race at Bristol all you need to know is that Kyle won it. Busch has a lot to race for on Saturday night. He almost has to win to make the Chase, which is why I like Kyle to sweep the season at Bristol and maybe start another hot-streak.

Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (6/1)

2009 Sharpie 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In 19 career starts at Bristol Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has one win, seven Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes. Junior is coming off a third-place finish at Michigan last week, his best finish since a Top-5 at ‘Dega. He has really struggled during this 2009 season with NASCAR big-boy Hendrick Motorsports, and now he’s basically racing for pride. But if you watched the last 39 laps of the Carfax 400 last week you saw shades of greatness as he wove his way through the field. His Top-3 finish cashed my 11/1 ticket, but I would have rather had him win since he was as also my 35/1 Lucky Dog. I like Junior again this week. It seems like with the pressure to make the Chase as well as expectations being way down, Junior is primed to close out the 2009 season on a high note. His withering comments about the CoT this week came across a bit like a sore loser and now if he can string together consecutive weeks of solid finishes his comments might resonate more.

Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No.88, (20/1)

2009 Sharpie 500 - Odds for Top-3 Finish

Carl Edwards is set at 15/2 to win on Saturday night as the two-time defending champion at Bristol and has dominated the concrete track at Bristol. Edwards is currently in fourth place in the NSCS standings and looks to be a lock to make the Chase again this year -- although if he doesn’t win he’ll be without the benefit of the 60 bonus points he earned last year. In 10 starts at Bristol Edwards has three Top-5s and four Top-10 finishes. Gamblers should note that Edwards does far better racing at Bristol when racing at night rather than during the day. In the past two years at the spring race in Bristol, which is run in the day, Edwards finished 15th in 2008 and 16th in 2009. Ordinarily I would recommend a play on Edwards to win in this spot, but considering that Edwards is fourth in the NSCS standings and has said that his first goal is to finish the race rather than win it, I see him being competitive throughout the race but not taking the chances he’ll need to win. This is why I have Edwards finishing in the Top 3 rather than winning the race outright.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (9/4)

Docsports.com

Sharpie 500 PostQ

It has been quite some time since Richard Childress Racing has had anything to be happy about. That could change this weekend as Clint Bowyer holds down the No. 1 spot on our PostQ forecast. Bowyer has fought his way into position to be a contender in the Chase for the Championship as he sits 15th in the point standings. A win could get him that much closer to his third consecutive championship run and he could easily do so at Bristol Motor Speedway. He is looking for his third consecutive top 10 finish and has been among the fastest cars all weekend. Bowyer ranked in the 4th position on our Speed chart while also qualifying in the 6th position. Look for the #33 Cheerios Chevrolet to be a contender for the win in the Sharpie 500.

If there is one driver that other drivers are nervous of this weekend it is Mark Martin. Martin will lead the field to the green flag this Saturday night and also ranks as the No. 1 on our Speed chart. Martin would have been the top driver on our PostQ forecast but because he has just one race under his belt at Bristol in the last three seasons. He did finish 6th in the first race at Bristol this season and has placed in the top 10 in all three short tracks races this year. With plenty at stake for Martin to make the Chase for the Championship he could gain valuable points this weekend.

With just three races remaining before the Chase starts this could be a disastrous weekend for Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is over 200 points ahead of 13th place Brian Vickers but could lose a ton of points to him if he runs anything like he has in practice and qualifying. Hamlin had to take a provisional starting spot and will be starting the race in the 41st position – a huge detriment considering that Bristol is just .5-mile long. He will be nearly a lap behind before the race even begins. Hamlin was not much better in the practice sessions ranking 40th on our Speed chart. The #11 FedEx Toyota needs to keep his nose clean or he could be fighting for a position in the Chase.

ProFantasySports.com