More problems for the #18 in Happy Hour
#18-Busch scraped the wall and pancaked the right side
Top 5 Sppeds
#48-Johnson 182.587
#24-Gordon 181.555 #77-Hornish Jr. 181.464
#2-Busch 181.275
#5-Martin 181.263
#18-Busch 181.153
Shelby 427 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Matt Kenseth, the first driver to win the first two races of the season since Jeff Gordon did in 1997, goes into the Shelby 427 on March 1 at 4:45 p.m. in great shape to win the first three races, a feat that has never been done in NASCAR history. However, looking to prevent the three-peat is Jimmie Johnson who has won three out of the last four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Sprint Cup racing continues in the desert this week as drivers will try their luck, and hardly tested engineering, on the fast-track that is LVMS. LVMS is essentially a 1.5-mile D-oval "flat track" that was renovated in 2006-07 to provide 20-degree banks in the turns and nine degrees on the straight-aways. This track is made for serious speed as cars will top 190 in the stretch and won't have to sacrifice too much speed on the turns. The track is multi-grooved which should allow for some good side-by-side racing, but generally doesn't.
Gamblers should note that in the last six races at LVMS the pole-sitter has never won, but in three of the last five races has finished in the top 10. Carl Edwards won this race last year after starting in the front row from outside the pole.
Who will win the Shelby 427?
Last year the question on everyone's minds before the UAW 400 was could Johnson win his fourth straight in Las Vegas? Johnson began the race from the 33rd spot and finished an unspectacular 28th place. This year the question is will Matt Kenseth make it three for three this year? Carl Edwards managed to win at California and then at LVMS, perhaps Matt Kenseth will do so as well?
While the odds may be stacked against him winning the first three races of the season, Kenseth has done really well in Las Vegas and could very well be the driver to beat on Sunday. Kenseth's early season results are indicative of his skill as a driver as well as his skill for avoiding accidents. Kenseth led four times for 70 laps last year, succumbing to eventual race winner Edwards and finishing the race 20th place.
Kenseth won at LVMS in 2003 and 2004 before the track was renovated and then finished no worse than eighth during the next four years. Kenseth now sports a gaudy two wins and two top fives with five top 10s for an average finish of nine in nine races.
This week I like the hometown kid Kyle Busch. Last week Busch was coming off an emotional record-setting Saturday when he won both the truck race and the Nationwide race on the same day; a feat that one driver had never done.
Busch won the pole last year but finished a disappointing 11th-place after leading the race three times for 56 laps. In the three previous races at LVMS Busch has finished second, third and ninth. I think Busch has looked impressive in his races this year and this might be over-shadowed by a lot of other factors such as Kenseth winning Daytona and California. This is exactly what makes Busch so dangerous in this spot. He finished in third place behind Kenseth and Gordon at California and I think Busch will improve on that on his "hometrack."
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, 11/2
2009 Shelby 427 - Long Odds Special
Kasey Kahne, in five races at LMS, has an average start position of 10.2, which shows that Kahne is good at qualifying at LMS. He has already won two poles and even set the qualifying record on March 9, 2007, with a speed of 184.856 mph (29.212 sec.). Despite Kahne's 17.00 average finishes the No. 9 car has two top-five and three top-10s in the desert. Kahne appears to like the spring race the best. In 2004 he started from the pole, led the race for 43 laps and finished second. The year Kahne set the qualifying record he led for 13 laps but was taken out of it in an accident on the 251st lap and finished the race with a 35 place. Kahne started the Auto Club 500 in 22nd place and finished in 12th place, picking up 127 points for the effort. While Kahne has had fabulous starting position in the spring races in Las Vegas this has not translated into wins. Kahne finished sixth last year and I think he'll do better this year. If you are looking for a good long odds driver who will provide you with a competitive chance of return on your sports investment the No. 9 Budweiser Dodge is a great play.
Pick! Kasey Kahne, No. 9, 40/1
2009 Shelby 427 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin is coming off a strong sixth-place finish at California last week. Hamlin has only raced at LVMS three times and all three times has finished within the top-10, even taking third place in the March 2007. His average finish of 7.33 belies the fact that his average starting position hovers around 20th on the grid; an average improvement of 13 spots in each of the three races in the desert. I see Hamlin building on his excellent finish in California and continuing his success in the desert. Hamlin at 6/1 odds makes the price right for me to gamble on the No. 11 to finish within the top three spots in Las Vegas this Sunday.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, 6/1
Docsports.com
Toyota scrambling to fix motor problems
February 28, 2009
LAS VEGAS (AP) -The president of Toyota Racing Development said he was embarrassed by a rash of engine problems that forced four motor changes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Lee White said the engine issue, which first popped up last week at California, appeared to be related to lubricants and coolings in the motors that TRD builds at its Costa Mesa, Calif., factory. The motors for Brian Vickers, Scott Speed, David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose all had to be pulled after qualifying Friday. Vickers also had to switch motors last week after winning the pole in California, as did Michael Waltrip.
Kyle Busch, the pole-winner for this Sunday's race, also changed a Toyota motor on Friday, but his was built by Joe Gibbs Racing and the issue was unrelated to the TRD problems.
White said TRD thought the issue was resolved after California, and was bothered that changes the company made didn't work.
``We thought (the change) was the right direction,'' White said. ``I'm disturbed to say that the right direction apparently was the wrong direction. We came here and thought we had a handle on it. We didn't. We made it worse.''
TRD is using different lubricants and coatings on the motors now in place for Sunday, and five additional engines were sent from Costa Mesa to be on hand in case additional switches were needed after Saturday's practice session. All the TRD motors appeared to be free of the problem following a post-practice inspection late Saturday afternoon.
The problem appears within the first 75 miles of use, and once an engine passes that mark, it is good for the remainder of the race.
``We're going to use a heavier lubrication and not try to squeeze every ounce of horsepower out of them,'' said White, who estimated the difference will be between four and five horsepower.
``Four or five horsepower is not insignificant in this league. No driver in the world would give it up willingly. But every team ... needs to get to the end. Our goal is to give them the best shot.''
SAFER RACE: Jeff Gordon feels secure on the track at Las Vegas a year after one of the worst wrecks of his career.
Gordon spun coming out of Turn 2 in last year's race and slammed into the inside retaining wall. The hit, at a portion of the track where energy-absorbing barriers had not been installed, was so hard it knocked the radiator out of his car.
The four-time series champion was extremely critical of the track after the accident, and speedway officials responded by installing SAFER barriers around the 1.5-mile facility.
``I'm confident in Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and in the comments that were made last year and the conversations I had with them last year and this year of what their plans were,'' he said. ``I feel good about what they've done and seeing it at a slower pace without hitting it.''
Gordon said he's never seen footage of the accident.
UNDER THE WEATHER: Jamie McMurray had the fastest Ford in Saturday's final practice session, but a bout with the flu prevented him from feeling good about his chances at a win.
McMurray, seventh fastest overall, headed to the infield care center after practice to ask for new medication.
``The medicine that I've got right now is not really working,'' said McMurray, who fell ill Tuesday night. ``You think you'd be better by now and I'm not, so I'm going to see if they'll give me something else to help with my chest. My eyeballs are the biggest issue right now. There's a lot of pressure on them and when the car loads up in the corner it really hurts my eyes.''
McMurray was also ill the week of the season-opening Daytona 500, as were several other drivers.
MONKEY SEE, MONKEY DO: Minutes before the start of the final Sprint Cup Series practice, several of the top drivers in NASCAR could be seen running through the garage.
Jeff Burton led Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards as they weaved in and out of groups of fans trying to get to their cars.
The drivers had just left the pre-race meeting for the Nationwide Series race, when Burton broke into a trot. The rest then followed him, even though they all made it to their garage stalls with plenty of time to spare before the start of practice.
FAST CARS: Jimmie Johnson, a three-time winner at Las Vegas, was the fastest driver in the final practice Saturday.
He led teammate Jeff Gordon, Sam Hornish Jr., Kurt Busch, and teammate Mark Martin. Defending race winner Carl Edwards was ninth fastest.
The only issue Saturday was minor, when rookie Joey Logano lightly tapped the wall following a spin.
Shelby 427 PostQ
Jimmie Johnson assumes the No. 1 spot on the PostQ forecast and well he should. Johnson is still considered the top driver in the series according to NASCAR’s Driver Rating analysis even though you finished 29th in this race last season. Despite that poor run he has three wins and an average finish of 9th place at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He was the quickest car in Happy Hour which moved him into the No. 2 spot on our Speed chart and will be starting the race in the 3rd position. Johnson is off to a bit of a slow start to the season but should be in for a strong showing this weekend in the Shelby 427.
Even though Kyle Busch took the pole he will have to start at the tail end of the field as the team had to make an engine change in the #18 M&Ms Toyota. That should not be much of a hindrance to the young driver as he ranked in the top 10 in each of the practice sessions after the switch. He is ranked in the No. 6 spot on our Speed chart and sits behind Johnson on the PostQ forecast in the No. 2 position. He will have some work to do and a bad day in the Nationwide series will only make Busch that much hungrier for a good run. Expect Busch to be battling for the win when it is all said and done this Sunday afternoon.
Through the first two races Mark Martin ranked among the top 10 in our PostQ forecasts. He once again ranks in the top 10 as he sits in the No. 5 position after a solid qualifying run in which he will begin the race from the 8th position. He also has looked strong in the practice sessions ranking as the No. 1 driver on our Speed chart. Martin is expected to be a contender for the championship this season driving the #5 CARQUEST Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports. Some poor luck has relegated him to a 16th and 40th place finish so far. Expect much better than that at Las Vegas where he has three straight top 10 finishes.
After finishing 13th in the point standing last season there was plenty to look forward to for David Ragan this season. He has not disappointed as he is currently 8th in the point standings after the first two races. Things could change this weekend, however, has he has struggled at Las Vegas. In two career starts Ragan has not started better than 35th place which is his starting spot for this race. He has also struggled in the practice sessions ranking just 38 out of the 43 cars on our Speed chart. Ragan did manage to come from the back of the pack last season to finish in the top 10 but with some poor practice times we would recommend looking elsewhere to fill your roster.
Reed Sorenson has had a very respectable start to the 2009 season driving for Richard Petty Motorsports. Through the first two races he is averaging a 15th place finish while sitting 14th in the point standings. Sorenson may be a risky selection this weekend however as he will be starting the race from the 39th position while also ranking at the back end of our Speed chart in the 40th position. There are plenty of other drivers in Sorenson's category to choose from and one of those would be a much better selection for the Shelby 427.
profantasysports.com
NASCAR Jack: Shelby 427 matchup picks
By NASCAR JACK
If you like wagering on NASCAR there is no better time or place to do so than Sunday’s Shelby 427 in Las Vegas. Can Matt Kenseth become the first driver to ever win each of the opening three races of the season?
There might not be much value backing Kenseth but this happens to be one of his best tracks. He has four top five finishes and has won the race outright twice in the 11 times Vegas has hosted the event.
Other multiple winners at the 1.5 mile track are Jimmie Johnson (2005-07) and Jeff Burton (1999 and 2000).
Here is a look at some of the matchups listed on Sportsbook.com:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-120) vs. Tony Stewart (-110)
Jr. is off to a horrendous start. His over-publicized crash in the Daytona 500 and a parts malfunction at California leave him in 35th spot dangerously close to falling out of an automatic entry after the first five events. Stewart was expected to start slowly while going through a learning curve as driver-owner of a new team. With two top 10s in two races he is surprising even his most ardent worshippers.
Pick: Stewart
Kyle Busch (-140) vs. Jeff Gordon (+110)
Vegas is home for the Busch brothers and they showed how comfortable they are here by qualifying one and two. Kyle blew his engine, so he’ll actually start at the rear of the pack. We’ve seen him quickly move up through the pack many times before. Jeffie has a win and five top fives with a finishing average (FA) of 14.9 at Vegas. Kyle will have a tough time beating him.
Pick: Gordon
Mark Martin (-150) vs. Kurt Busch (+120)
Kurt would like nothing better than to win at home. He put himself in a good spot to do it starting in the front row. But since his third place finish in 2005 he has finished well back. His FA here is 20.1. Martin is having a ball since moving over with ‘The Cat in the Hat’ Jack Roush. He qualified in eighth and was fastest in the first practice. The track has not been unkind to him with a win, five top fives, nine top 10s and a FA of 11.1.
Pick: Martin
Jimmie Johnson (-130) vs. Matt Kenseth (Even)
This one could be kicked around all day. Both drivers have had all kinds of success at this track and their stats on are near identical in Vegas. The deciding factor will be Kenseth having to move through the pack while Johnson starts in the front row.
Pick: Johnson.
Last week: 2-2
Season: 5-3
Trading Paint: Shelby 427 picks
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Sunday's Shelby 427 in Las Vegas.
The rules:
1. A panelist can only pick a driver five times total for the season.
2. Standings will be calculated each week, with panelists awarded the actual points their drivers earned.
Be sure to give us your picks in the comments section below.
Here are the standings after one race, with last week's pick in parentheses:
1. Mike Pryson (Jimmie Johnson) -- 272
1. Troy Ruel (Jimmie Johnson) -- 272
3. Jeff Bleiler (Jeff Gordon) -- 225
3. Steve Kaminski (Greg Biffle) -- 215
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Jeff Gordon nearly made me look good last week (or would that be the other way around?) by finishing second to the surprise of the season, Matt Kenseth. Time to roll the dice again as the series shifts to Sin City.
Winner: Carl Edwards
Roush goes 3-for-3 on the season, but it's Edwards instead of Kenseth in winner's circle. Hard to picture Kenseth doing a backflip, isn't it? (Or doing much of anything, for that matter.)
Sleeper: Kasey Kahne
He had a decent showing (12th) last week in California and is due for something better. He finished in the top 10 in Vegas last year and should do so again this weekend.
No chance: Matt Kenseth
The hex must be broken. Pryson had Kenseth as his "no chance" pick before Daytona, he won. I had him last week, he won. No way he wins three in a row this weekend. I mean, come on. Seriously?
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
One must be encouraged so far by what we have seen through two races.
First, 51 drivers have registered to compete in Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Las Vegas. There were plenty of concerns during the offseason that Cup wouldn't be able to fill its fields. So far, so good.
And second, I see that Pryson, Bleiler and the new kid have come to play this year. I really thought last year that they were afraid of me and rolled over. Hopefully, Trading Paint will be more competitive in 2009.
Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Johnson has started slowly, by his standards. However, he has three Las Vegas victories in his career.
Sleeper: Michael Waltrip
True, the season is only two races old. But Waltrip is seventh in points.
No chance: Matt Kenseth
Three in a row? It's not going to happen, even though this is one of Kenseth's best tracks.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
How does that old expression go? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Snd with that, here's this week's picks for Vegas:
Winner: Matt Kenseth
Hey, I'm no dummy. I can see when a guy is running a hot streak, and what better place to play a hot streak than Las Vegas. Kenseth is trying to become NASCAR's first driver to make it three wins to start a season. He's coming to a track that has been good to him. He's finished every lap there for the past six races and has two wins. Something kind of special is brewing with that No. 17 car.
Sleeper: Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is one of those drivers who rarely gets any love in pick-'em games like these. It's too easy to pick the big boys every week. Still, Hamlin has three straight top-10 finishes at Las Vegas and he's coming off a quiet sixth at Fontana. He's one good finish away from being in the top 12 in points, and he'll get that good run this week.
No chance: David Reutimann
Let's see, I had Kenseth in this spot in Week 1, and Bleiler had Kenseth here in Week 2. This week, let's put the whammy on Reutimann. He's in the top 12 in season points and the guy that just doesn't fit that mold just yet. It's been a nice start to the season for Michael Waltrip and his race team, but this is the week Reutimann comes back to earth. He finished 37th in his last Vegas start.
Troy Ruel -- The Muskegon Chronicle
It's hard to go against the hot hand, so I'm gambling that Matt Kenseth winds up in Victory Lane in Las Vegas on Sunday night. No! He won't be there waving the checkered flag again. He'll be there congratulating a former teammate.
Winner: Mark Martin
Martin has nine top-10 finishes in 11 Vegas starts, including the last three years with three different owners. He also has three Nationwide wins, including last year while driving for current teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Sleeper: Sterling Marlin
I'm not delusional enough to believe that Marlin can contend. However, the No. 09 car has been good enough in the past to get into the field and if the 33-year veteran driver can post a top-20 finish, it would be a major success.
No chance: Clint Bowyer
If Jeff Burton can't win for Richard Childress Racing at Vegas, no one will. Bowyer, sixth in the points standings after two races, drops Sunday.
mlive.com
LAS VEGAS SHELBY 427
By: K. Sig Shelor
Good Afternoon, well last week we nailed every head to head but came up just short for the sweep. All in all it was a great day to bring us basically back to even money after two weeks. Here is what the numbers look like. On the year we are (-$95.04, - 00.95%) return on investment. As a reminder the goal for the season is 25% return so there is a lot of racing and plenty of opportunity for you to get on board to build your bankroll for the upcoming football season.
Todays race I am backing Greg Biffle to come away with the win here in Busch and Sprint. I think the Roush boys of course will run great here expecting a bit of a let down from Kenseth although he'll run top 10. I like the older Busch brother over Kyle today, and most of it does have to do with starting from the rear. Now tires were not supposed to be an issue here and we'll see this will be the third year running with these banks at Las Vegas. The lines are sharp in today's race be careful out there folks as always best of luck and I'll see you back here for Atlanta.
2009 Dodge Shelby 427 Preview
Site: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, Nevada
Track: 1.5-mile tri-oval
Annual: 9th
Television: Fox
Start Time: 4:35 p.m. (EST)
Defending Champion: Carl Edwards
Runner-up: Dale Earnhardt Jr
To Win:
1* Greg Biffle +750, or 1% of bankroll.
3/4* Jimmie Johnson +300, or .75% of bankroll.
1/2* Kurt Busch +1100, or .50% of bankroll.
Long Shot to Win:
3* Mark Martin +1500, or 30% of 1% of bankroll.
Head to Head:
3* K. Kahne (-165) over C. Bowyer, or 2.34% of season bankroll.
2* B. Vickers (-125) over J. Burton, or 1.56% of season bankroll.
2* C. Edward (+110) over Ky. Busch, or 1.56% of season bankroll.