Darlington preview
By Micah Roberts
This weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race is at Darlington Raceway, a track more entrenched in NASCAR tradition than any other on the circuit. Darlington was the first track to run on asphalt and also the first track to have a 500 mile race. The odd egged shaped 1.36 mile track built on a whim of competing with Indianapolis Motor Speedway is what NASCAR tradition is all about amid all the new similar facilities sprouting up across America over the last 13 years.
This weekend’s race is run on Mother’s Day weekend again for the 5th straight year, which was an initial off limits rule demanded by NASCAR’s creator Big Bill France. You see, France never wanted to co-mingle fan loyalty with disrupting major religious days or honoring one’s Mother. He also didn’t want to see any Mother have to suffer pain of seeing their son suffer possible injuries up to and/or including death or her special day.
Fast forward to 2005 when NASCAR’s economics and growth were clouding their judgment and decisions where all they saw were dollar signs instead of respecting the sports tradition and values. NASCAR changed the Darlington dates, which included removing the venerable Southern 500 on Labor Day weekend that had run since 1950, longer than any other, and sent that date to California which NASCAR and its subsidiary ISC thought would create better ratings across America. In the process, NASCAR eliminated one of the two races that had been run annually at Darlington since 1957.
The irony of the whole switch and change of dates at Darlington is that it was moved to Mother’s Day weekend and the nickname of the track is “The Lady in Black.”
My, how things have changed, and what a perfect testament to NASCAR and their changes, for better or worse.
This Saturday night’s race on the crazed oval of Darlington is unlike any other. Each of the entries into the turns are different in circumference and banking make it so unique. Because of the high banking, teams will need a car balanced somewhat like Texas, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, but because of distance and variance of corners, it will have to handle like a Bristol or Phoenix. It’s a different mix altogether and what makes Darlington so special amid all the replica tracks recently built.
The king of the facility and 7 time winner on the track labeled, “Too Tough to Tame”, is Jeff Gordon who is 3 wins shy of tying the David Pearson for the tracks all time leader in wins. Gordon set a record by becoming the only driver to 5 straight Southern 500’s from 1995-99. Prior to that, the most anyone had won in a row was two. After last weeks race in Richmond and a one week relegation to 2nd place, Gordon is again back in the points lead by a slim 10 point margin over Las Vegan Kurt Busch.
To further illustrate how great Gordon is at Darlington in all phases of his career is that he’s had 28 career starts on the track and finished in the top 5 on 16 occasions. His last victory was in this race two seasons ago. This season things have gone all too well for the four-time Cup Champion despite suffering through nagging back injuries. His car has been too good to allow any personal defects get in the way of a well revamped team that struggled through 2008. Kyle Busch may be the favorite to win this week, but Gordon may be the best bet based on pedigree and experience.
Kyle Busch now has three wins on the season after last weeks win at Richmond on his birthday. He won this race last season and shunned the “Lady in Black” like she wasn’t even there as he led the most laps and dominated the last third of the race. Nothing seems to have changed from last year to 2009, other than he has combined a sick sense of aggression with an equally intelligent game plan that makes him possibly more dangerous than the first 26 races last year. While sulking and free falling in the last 10 races of the Chase last season, Kyle may have learned a valuable lesson in humility which seems to have fueled him to another level that no one is on. They’re all professionals out there, but for some reason Kyle has his moments whether its on a restart, a classic outside pass, or just a gutsy maneuver that separates him from everyone else.
Until last season, Kyle had some trouble with the “Lady” while garnishing his “Darlington Stripes” as a newcomer to the tough track. His win last year doesn’t necessarily say he’s all cured from the famed wall, but it definitely gives him more confidence.
Kurt Busch was part of perhaps the greatest Darlington race of all time when he and Ricky Craven battled for the five laps side by side, sliding, banging, and bumping all the way to the finish until Craven finally won. That second place finish was the best run Kurt Busch has ever had at Darlington. His Penske tenure has been has been rocky since coming over, but it appears everything is well now on all types of tracks. Darlington should get Kurt’s blood flowing and is the type of track he likes, at least with a good car. Even though neither will say much about it, Kurt wants to beat his brother Kyle as much as he wants to win. Kyle has gotten a bit mouthy about his brother in the press because of his recent success with Gibbs. There’s nothing more than the more mature Kurt Busch would like than to knock his brother’s cocky block off himself, on the track.
Jimmie Johnson swept the 2004 season when Darlington ran two races, including taking the final Southern 500, not the refurbished Southern 500 NASCAR is throwing to the fans this week. Unless the Southern 500 is on Labor Day weekend, it cannot be the Southern 500. Those two wins remain Johnson’s only of his career on the track, but overall has eight top 10’s in his ten career starts. Johnson dropped 3 positions in points after a poor run in Richmond last week and doesn’t appear to have it all together at this juncture as he has in the past. You never want to count Jimmie out, but he doesn’t look like the Jimmie that should be going for a 6th straight titles this season, despite capturing 3 straight.
Oh Roush, where art thou? Not quite sure what is going on with the team, but it’s obvious despite winning the first two races of the season with Matt Kenseth that the team is struggling. Greg Biffle, who is a two time winner at Darlington, is having a terrible time even though he’s sitting 11th in points. Carl Edwards only has one top 5 this season, while Kenseth with the two wins sits 12th in points. This is a track where several Roush drivers have done very well, not necessarily in the win category with only 5, but in top 5 finishes. Last season Roush had 4 of his drivers finish in the top 11 with Edwards charging late and finishing 2nd.
Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman had great runs last week at Richmond which should serve well for this week’s race. They have all kinds of momentum going their way after starting slowly, in particular Newman. Stewart is currently 3rd in points while Newman has moved into 10th. Stewart has finished 2nd in two of the last three races and is looking for not only his first win with his new team he owns, but also his first win at Darlington. The track is on of only 3 Stewart hasn’t won on during his career. Should Stewart win, he would become the first driver since Ricky Rudd in 1998 to win a race with a car he drove and owned.
Drivers that should also have good runs this week are Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Martin TruexJr, and Denny Hamlin. Junior has never done anything special at Darlington, but the Junior Nation has to have some impact after all his struggles thus far, No?
TOP 5 Finish prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
3) #2 Kurt Busch (13/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
5) #16 Greg Biffle (18/1)
VegasInsider.com
Driver Averages - Darlington
Darlington Raceway (Last 10 Races)
Denny Hamlin 6.3
Jimmie Johnson 7.4
Dale Earnhardt, Jr 9.7
Carl Edwards 12.4
Jeff Gordon 12.7
Mark Martin 12.8
Martin Truex, Jr 13.0
Ryan Newman 13.3
Kasey Kahne 14.0
Kurt Busch 14.2
Mike Bliss 14.5
Greg Biffle 14.8
Jeff Burton 14.8
Tony Stewart 14.9
Clint Bowyer 15.7
Jamie McMurray 15.8
David Ragan 16.0
Matt Kenseth 16.0
Bobby Labonte 16.7
Kyle Busch 17.0
Elliott Sadler 17.7
Joe Nemechek 18.6
Jeremy Mayfield 21.4
Sterling Marlin 21.7
Kevin Harvick 22.8
Juan Pablo Montoya 23.0
Robby Gordon 23.3
Dave Blaney 23.6
David Gilliland 25.0
Dale Jarrett 25.6
David Reutimann 26.0
Kyle Petty 26.1
Michael Waltrip 26.9
Brendan Gaughan 27.0
Reed Sorenson 27.7
Scott Riggs 27.8
Johnny Sauter 28.0
Brian Vickers 28.2
Regan Smith 29.0
Casey Mears 29.5
David Stremme 29.5
A.J. Allmendinger 31.5
Paul Menard 33.5
John Andretti 34.0
Sam Hornish, Jr 38.0
Odds and Ends - Darlington
Darlington Raceway Data
Race #: 11 of 36 (5-9-09)
Track Size: 1.366 miles
Banking/Corners: 23-25 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 6 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 6 degrees
Frontstretch: 1,229 feet
Backstretch: 1,229 feet
Driver Rating at Darlington
Greg Biffle 121.8
Jimmie Johnson 116.0
Jeff Gordon 115.1
Denny Hamlin 112.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 104.2
Kyle Busch 99.0
Carl Edwards 98.6
Ryan Newman 97.1
Matt Kenseth 91.2
Kasey Kahne 88.4
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (4 total) at Darlington.
Qualifying/Race Data
2008 pole winner: Greg Biffle (179.442 mph, 27.405 seconds, 5-9-08)
2008 race winner: Kyle Busch (140.350 mph, 5-10-08)
Track qualifying record: Greg Biffle (179.442 mph, 27.405 seconds, 5-9-08)
Track race record: Kyle Busch (140.350 mph, 5-10-08)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, based on fuel mileage
Driver Highlights - Darlington
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Darlington Raceway. The Loop Data statistics - Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. - in this release, however, cover the last four races at Darlington. NASCAR's scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Two wins, two top fives, three top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.8
# Average Running Position of 7.9, fourth-best
# Series-best Driver Rating of 121.8
# Series-high 174 Fastest Laps Run
# Average Green Flag Speed of 155.230 mph, second-fastest
# 1,298 Laps in the Top 15 (88.2%), fourth-most
# 126 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Combos Toyota)
# One win, one top five, two top 10s
# Average finish of 17.0
# Average Running Position of 11.1, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 99.0, sixth-best
# 72 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# 225 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# 1,172 Laps in the Top 15 (79.7%), fifth-most
# Series-high 155 Quality Passes
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
# Three top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 14.2
# Average Running Position of 8.8, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 104.2, fifth-best
# 45 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 221 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# 1,306 Laps in the Top 15 (88.8%), third-most
# 149 Quality Passes, second-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# Two top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 12.4
# Average Running Position of 12.0, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 98.6, seventh-best
# 79 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 227 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 154.989 mph, fifth-fastest
# 1,075 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), sixth-most
# 140 Quality Passes, third-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
# Seven wins, 16 top fives, 19 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 11.5
# Average Running Position of 6.0, second-best
# Driver Rating of 115.1, third-best
# 61 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 155.036 mph, fourth-fastest
# Series-high 1,453 Laps in the Top 15 (98.8%)
# 138 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# One top five, three top 10s
# Average finish of 6.3
# Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
# Driver Rating of 112.5, fourth-best
# 106 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 155.176 mph, third-fastest
# 964 Laps in the Top 15 (87.6%), eighth-most
# 128 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
# Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 7.4
# Series-best Average Running Position of 5.7
# Driver Rating of 116.0, second-best
# 132 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 155.341 mph
# 1,393 Laps in the Top 15 (94.7%), second-most
# 131 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
# One top five, six top 10s
# Average finish of 18.5
# Average Running Position of 14.7, 13th-best
# Driver Rating of 91.2, ninth-best
# 55 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 254 Green Flag Passes, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 154.419 mph, 10th-fastest
# 817 Laps in the Top 15 (55.5%), 12th-most
# 111 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
# Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.3
# Average Running Position of 12.2, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 97.1, eighth-best
# 45 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 154.984 mph, sixth-fastest
# 1,072 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), seventh-most
Southern 500 Preview
By Sports Network
Last season, Kyle Busch posted the third of his eight wins in 2008, as he raced to victory ahead of Carl Edwards. Busch dominated the race, leading 169 of the 367 laps to defeat Edwards by 3.115 seconds. Pole sitter Greg Biffle failed to finish the race due to engine problems and placed last. Coming off his win last week in Richmond, Busch ranks fifth on the points list and has three victories this year in 10 races. His victory last week was the 50th of his NASCAR career, spanning all three series.
Jeff Gordon led only 22 laps, but it was the final 22 laps, as he clipped Denny Hamlin by less than a second for his 78th career Sprint Cup title in 2007. Gordon, who now totals 82 checkered flags, started from the 10th position on the grid and made his way to the top on lap 346, overtaking Jimmie Johnson. Hamlin dominated the race, leading five times for 179 laps, while Johnson, who placed third, led four times for 44 laps. Pole sitter Clint Bowyer led for the first 16 laps, but faded and placed ninth.
In 2006, Greg Biffle became the first back-to-back winner of this race since Dale Jarrett in 1997-98, as he crossed the finish line 0.209 of a second ahead of Jeff Gordon. The win, the 10th of his Sprint Cup career, was the first of two 2006 victories. Biffle, who led seven times during the race for a total of 170 laps, reclaimed the advantage for the last time on lap 319 of the 367 lap race before an estimated crowd of 75,000. The race was filled with lead changes, 25 in all, among 10 drivers. Pole sitter Kasey Kahne led three times for 41 laps and placed 21st.
Gordon has now posted seven wins at Darlington Raceway and has finished in the top-10 19 times in 28 races. In fact, Gordon has placed in the top five in each of the last five Darlington races. Gordon's average finish at Darlington is 11.5 and has led a series high 1,604 laps.
Darlington Raceway is celebrating its 60th year of racing. The track was originally built as a 1.25-mile paved superspeedway in 1949-50 and hosted the first 500-mile race in NASCAR history on asphalt. The track was re-measured to 1.375-mile in 1953 and then re-configured to 1.366 in the spring of 1970. The track has been repaved in 1995 and then again in 2007. There have been 105 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Darlington Raceway since the track opened. Not only is Darlington the site of the oldest NASCAR race on asphalt, it is also the site of one of the closest race finishes in NASCAR history. Ricky Craven edged Kurt Busch by 0.002 seconds on March 16, 2003 - the smallest margin of victory since NASCAR instituted electronic timing in mid-1993.
This and That at Darlington: The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Darlington was 43rd, in the track's inaugural race in 1950 by Johnny Mantz. That race had a 75-car field. 18 races at Darlington have been won from the pole, the most productive starting position. Hendrick Motorsports has won 12 races at Darlington, more than any other organization. David Pearson leads all drivers with 10 victories, followed by Dale Earnhardt with nine. Pearson leads all drivers with 12 poles at Darlington.
The next event on the Sprint Cup Series schedule is the May 16th NASCAR Sprint All-Star Challenge at Lowe's Motor Speedway. Kasey Kahne won last year's "all- star" race in Charlotte.
ODDS TO WIN THE SOUTHERN 500
Kyle Busch +475
Jimmie Johnson +550
Carl Edwards +750
Jeff Gordon +650
Tony Stewart +950
Kurt Busch +950
Greg Biffle +950
Denny Hamlin +950
Mark Martin +1350
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1350
Matt Kenseth +1850
Martin Truex Jr +2350
Kevin Harvick +2350
Ryan Newman +2350
Jeff Burton +2850
Brian Vickers +3350
Kasey Kahne +3850
Jamie McMurray +3850
David Ragan +3850
Clint Bowyer +3850
David Reutimann +3850
Field +2000
NASCAR -- Southern 500 PreQ
The last couple of weeks have been quite disappointing for Jimmie Johnson, especially the race at Richmond. Johnson had won three of the previous four races at the track but placed just 36th last weekend – his second consecutive finish of 30th place or worse. He is definitely looking to improve upon that at Darlington Raceway where he currently rates at the No. 1 driver on our PreQ forecast. Johnson is averaging a 7th place finish in ten career starts with a pair of wins and eight top 10s. Plus he is considered one of the better speedway drivers averaging a 5th place finish in the last eight events. Expect Johnson to bounce back after two porous runs in this weekend Southern 500.
It is difficult to not talk about Jeff Gordon at Darlington. Gordon has four straight top 3 finishes at the track with one win while averaging a 2nd place finish. He has not always run that well at Darlington but has been stellar since the introduction of the COT. He has not produced on the other speedway tracks in the series but for whatever reason he has loved this track over the last two seasons. Like his teammate expect Gordon to have a big night in South Carolina.
Everyone is trying to figure out why Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been struggling this season. Junior has just three top 10s this season while posting four finishes outside the top 20 as he sits in 18th in the point standings. Junior is looking for a big run this weekend to get back into the running to be a participant in the Chase for the Championship and he could easily do so. For one, his teammates (Johnson and Gordon) run extremely well at this track. For two, Junior has also run very well in the COT at Darlington recorded four straight top 10 finishes. Junior doesn’t necessarily need a win but a solid top 10 could get the ship pointed in the right direction.
The first quarter of the season went extremely poorly for Kevin Harvick and the second quarter did not start any better. Harvick has just two top 10 finishes on the season and has posted four consecutive finishes outside the top 25 as he has fallen all the way to 23rd in the point standings. At this point it would be hard to say that the #29 Pennzoil Chevrolet would be a contender for the championship this season. He could turn it around but it doubtful to occur this weekend. In 12 career starts he has posted just four top 10s with the last one coming during the 2003 season. He has run extremely poorly in the last four races at the track averaging a 27th place finish. We recommend avoiding the slumping Harvick for this race.
Casey Mears posted his first top 10 finish driving the Richard Childress Racing’s #07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet. Mears has struggled in his move to the team averaging a 21st place finish through the first nine races before coming through at Richmond. His good fortune is unlikely to continue at Darlington where he has had all sorts of problems in his career. In eight career starts Mears is averaging a 30th place finish with five finishes coming outside the top 30. It is does not look like RCR will be in for a very good weekend in the Southern 500.
profantasysports.com
Southern 500 HOT! Sheet
Ahoy mate! The man known as the “Tasmanian Devil”, Marcos Ambrose, finds himself near the top of our sheet this week. He has been one of the best buys in fantasy racing in the first ten races. The #47 team has posted five top 15s in the last six races. They are coming off three straight events in which they improved dramatically from start to finish (on average, 18 spots). The only downside this weekend would be that this is their first trip to Darlington. But we still see him as a good buy.
There has been a lot of moving and shaking going on at Richard Childress Racing recently. However, one of the bright spots has been the #31 team of Jeff Burton. Ever since struggling in the first two races of the year (28th and 32nd), they have not finished outside the top 15. In those eight races, he has a 9.6 average finish. He is coming off of season best starting (5th) and finishing (3rd) performances at Richmond. He has been highly successful here, so add him if you can.
It has been a wild season so far for Greg Biffle. He has finished 7th or better in five of the events, and 20th or worse in four of the events. But his better outcomes have come most recently. In the last four races, he has an average finish right at 8th place. At Richmond, he never really was in contention, but still managed to stay on the lead lap and place 17th at the end. He won back-to-back races here not too long ago (2005 and 2006). He’ll contend again this Saturday night.
One of the surprise names near the bottom this week is Jeff Gordon. It’s mainly due to his hiccups in consecutive weeks at Phoenix and Talladega when circumstances forced the four-time Cup winner home in 25th and 37th. He has also been experiencing some pretty serious back pain, which is cause for concern. But with all of that being said, there’s no way that we can say bench him. He’s got five straight top 3s here, including a win two years ago. We’ll put the “buyer beware” label on him this week.
One team that has been slowly on a downward slide is the #44 team of A.J. Allmendinger. Ever since his 9th place showing at Martinsville, he has yet to post a top 20 finish. At Texas he ran 34th. At both Phoenix and Talladega it was 35th. Then last week under the lights at Richmond he went home 21st. If this keeps up, he’ll find himself fighting to stay inside the top 35. He had value earlier in the season, but right now it’s just not there.
profantasysports.com
Kenseth takes pole at Darlington, Johnson crashes
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
DARLINGTON, S.C. - Jeff Gordon left his car with hands shaking and heart pounding after another harrowing experience at Darlington Raceway.
Gordon's teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, three-time Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson, wasn't as lucky qualifying Friday, crashing before he could finish his lap.
"This is a nail-biter, white-knuckle experience qualifying here," said Gordon, who'll start second Saturday night in the Southern 500.
Matt Kenseth set a track record to win his first pole since 2005, his 179.514 mph eclipsing Greg Biffle's mark from a year ago. And Gordon marveled at Kenseth's record-setting performance at the track "Too Tough To Tame."
"You've got to push really hard. You've got to be committed," Gordon said. "This track is narrow. It's got a lot of grip, but the edge is right there. It's really easy to break loose."
That's what happened to Johnson, a two-time winner at Darlington. His No. 48 Chevrolet slid in turn two, the back end crunching the wall then the front side bounding into an interior wall and coming to a stop.
Johnson's crew ran out to help. He was taken the infield care center for evaluation and released a short time later.
Johnson said right before his lap, crew chief Chad Knaus' "final words were, 'Go like hell,' and off I went and didn't make it back."
Johnson qualified on owner's points and will start 42nd, his worst opening spot in 11 career Cup races at Darlington.
"I hate that happened to Jimmie," Gordon said. "I know they've got another great car in the truck. They're a championship caliber team. They'll rebound, I'm sure, in a big way."
Kenseth's hopes his fourth career pole -- and first since Kansas in October 2005 -- leads to a rebound in confidence.
He won the Daytona 500 and then the next week at Auto Club Speedway in Los Angeles. However, he's just one top 10 finish in the past eight races.
Kenseth had felt good during practice, then came an afternoon rain that threatened to wash off much of the grip Sprint Cup drivers had spent the morning laying down.
To Kenseth's surprise, his car held its line and led to the quickest lap in Darlington's 60-season history.
"It's the most confident I've been in my car since, I don't know," Kenseth said.
Ryan Newman qualified third, followed by improving Sam Hornish Jr. and Darlington first-timer Joey Logano.
Defending Darlington champion Kyle Busch, who swept last week's Nationwide and Sprint Cup races at Richmond, will start 14th.
Brad Keselowski made it into his first Cup race since winning Talladega two week ago and starts 31st.
Jeremy Mayfield and Scott Speed failed to make the 43-car field.
Johnson, sixth in the points, had hoped a strong qualifying lap would end a run of bad races. He was 30th at Talladega and 36th a week ago at Richmond.
"Unfortunately, I tore up a race care but we have great backups and we'll be out there tomorrow night," he said. "I'm looking forward to it."
NASCAR: Southern 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Cale Yarborough will pace the field to the green flag as the iconic Southern 500 returns after four years to South Carolina as NASCAR motors down to Darlington Raceway to celebrate 60 years of racing at the historic Lady in Black this Saturday night at 7:45, televised by FOX.
Last week Kyle Busch won his 49th career race on Friday, turned 24 on Saturday and won his 50th career race on Sunday at 'Dega for his third win of the season. However, Jeff Gordon took back the points lead from Kurt Busch as the No. 24 car finished eighth place at on Sunday, good enough for a 10-point lead in the Sprint Cup standings over brother Kurt Busch. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson tumbled four spots in the standings to sixth place following a disastrous Crown Royal 400 at Richmond.
Who will win the Southern 500?
In 2005 and 2006 Greg Biffle earned back-to-back victories at Darlington and led about half of the total laps in his two victories. Last year it looked like more of the same as Greg Biffle started Darlington from the Pole and led for 95 laps before a faulty engine doomed his chances and Biffle finished the race dead last at 43rd. This year Greg Biffle hopes that the No. 16 car doesn't run into the same difficulty.
In the first practice session on Friday Biffle's No. 16 Chevy proved to be the fastest, but in the final practice it was Mark Martin leading all cars with a lap of 175.103, proving the Hendrick Motorsports Driver might be old, but he isn't slow. Darlington really favors the speed but, of course, practice laps aren't the real thing and they can only give you so much information.
One thing you can take from the practice sessions is that they'll give an indication how the car will race on Saturday night. However, remember that day practice and night racing are two different things and a cool track will have a much different effect on the performance on the cars than a hot South Carolina afternoon will have.
It has been a mercurial season for Biffle as he has not been able to be as consistent as he was last year. He did well in Las Vegas and moved all the way up to fourth in the Sprint Cup standings. But since then he has had three straight lousy races and has tumbled in the Sprint Cup standings to 23rd. Following those three Biffle reeled off three consecutive top-seven finishes and has moved back into the Chase at No. 11 in the Sprint Cup standings and 248 points behind Gordon. At Darlington in his career Biffle has two wins, two top-five finishes and three top-10s. Given the way Biffle has dramatically improved over the past three races and his penchant for racing well at Darlington he is my pick to win on Saturday night.
Pick! Greg Biffle, No.16, (3/1)
2009 Southern 500- Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Dominating NASCAR driver news are the usual suspects: Gordon, Busch, Johnson, Earnhardt, Jr., Edwards and Stewart. One driver that has remained almost invisible, despite his success and consistency after 10 races in 2009, is Richard Childress Racing's Jeff Burton. Burton is currently in seventh place in the Sprint Cup standings and last week notched a third a Talladega. Burton is also a two-time winner at Darlington sweeping both races in 1999.
Since 2005, though, there has been only one race per year at Darlington. In 26 starts at Darlington Burton has eight top-fives (I just mentioned two of them) and 15 top-10 finishes, but has finished 10th the past two years. While Burton has struggled at Darlington in the past two years I think Talladega showed that his crew chief Scott Miller and team tweaked the No. 31 Caterpiller Chevrolet so that it was one of the fastest cars on the track. If they can duplicate that type of speed at Darlington I see Burton not only contending but winning outright. And at 30/1 that is some fine change if he is the first past the waving checkers.
Pick! Jeff Burton, No. 31, (30/1)
2009 Southern 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven wins at Darlington Raceway, five of which have come at the Southern 500. His five wins ties Cale Yarborough's record for the most wins at the Southern 500. In 28 starts at Darlington Gordon has 16 top-fives and 19 top-10 finishes at the Lady in Black. The last time Gordon won at Darlington was two years ago and last year he placed third; and 2008 was a poor year for Gordon. If he wins on Saturday night it will be Gordon's 83rd Sprint Cup victory. This would tie him with Yarborough and put him in sixth for all-time career Sprint Cup wins, just behind Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip, who both have 84 career wins. For these reasons I like Gordon to at the very least come in the top three on Saturday night.
Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24. (2/1)
Docsports.com
NASCAR Trading Paint: Southern 500 picks
Posted by The Grand Rapids Press
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Saturday's Southern 500 in Darlington, S.C.
The rules:
1. A panelist can only pick a driver five times total for the season.
2. Standings will be calculated each week, with panelists awarded the actual points their drivers earned.
Here are the standings, with last week's pick in parentheses:
1. Jeff Bleiler (Kyle Busch) -- 1,355
2. Steve Kaminski (Tony Stewart) -- 1,333
3. Mike Pryson (Denny Hamlin) -- 1,172
4. Troy Ruel (Jimmie Johnson) -- 1,167
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Some of the greatest ideas have been knockoffs of things that already have been invented. In that spirit, I'd like to offer my co-horts a Kaminski-like haiku after correctly picking Kyle Busch to win the Richmond race last week.
I am in first place.
Kaminski, Pryson and Ruel
You guys can't pick squat.
Winner: Greg Biffle
Don't let last year's last-place finish fool you. He was going for his third victory at Darlington in the past four years and had led 95 laps before his engine blew up. He'll be up for a little revenge this year.
Sleeper: Matt Kenseth
His season started brilliantly with a pair of victories, but he hasn't had much to be proud of since. He's 12th in the standings but should improve after Darlington, where he has three straight finishes of seventh or better.
No chance: Kevin Harvick
Man, has this guy struggled. Three finishes of 30th or worse has him sitting 23rd in the standings, and it's been five years since his last top-10 finish at Darlington. Ouch.
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
This would be a great opportunity to shed some analysis on Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Darlington.
Nah. I would rather use this space to make fun of Mike Pryson and Troy Ruel. Their picks stink.
Winner: Matt Kenseth
True, Kenseth has one top-10 finish in the past eight races, but he does have three straight top 10s at Darlington.
Sleeper: Sam Hornish
Hornish is coming off a sixth-place finish at Richmond, the best finish of his Sprint Cup career.
No chance: Casey Mears
Mears has never finished better than 15th in eight career Darlington starts.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
A Happy Mother's Day edition of the picks starts off with a tip of the hat to Mark Martin. The ageless one re-ups for 2010 with Hendrick Racing. Give Martin credit. He's having one heck of a retirement. By the way, did he have to give back all those retirement gifts that the tracks and sponsors gave him a few years back? Just wondering.
Winner: Kyle Busch
It's been pretty much feast or famine for Busch of late. In his last six races, he's got two wins and four finishes outside the top 15. The beast will feast this week.
Sleeper: Ryan Newman
For about the fifth time this year, the dart lands on Newman for my sleeper pick. This time, with good reason. He's put together back-to-back top-five finishes and has inched into the Chase picture at No. 10 in points. Newman seems to like his new digs with the Stewart outfit.
No chance: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last time I put him here, promise. His season is just making less and less sense. If he were a baseball pitcher, you'd want him to have an MRI or something. He's with arguably the sport's best team, yet he's managed just three top-10 finishes in 10 starts. By comparison, his teammates are doing just fine (Jeff Gordon has seven top 10s, Jimmie Johnson 6 and Martin 5). Earnhardt Jr. has just one more top-10 finish than Sam Hornish Jr. and A.J. Allmendinger, and nobody is calling those guys contenders for much of anything this year.
Troy Ruel -- The Muskegon Chronicle
I think I'm hitting the rookie wall. A 50-1 horse wins the Kentucky Derby and last week's pick, Jimmie Johnson, finished 36th. I think I need to quit picking the favorite ... starting next week.
Winner: Kyle Busch
He's been the best driver over the last month and looking to get on another roll. It doesn't hurt that he's the defending race winner, too.
Sleeper: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
At this point last season, Junior had seven top-10 finishes and led 416 laps. This year, he sits 18th in the standings. Things have to turn around some time, right?
No chance: Brian Vickers
It's been a good season for this Toyota team, however, don't expect Vickers to pick up points this week. In six career races he has just a single top-20 finish (2005).
Driver Handicaps: Darlington
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Darlington Raceway for Saturday's Southern 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 367-lap event.
Who's HOT at Darlington
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with seven wins.
• Jimmie Johnson has the best average finish (4.8) in the last six races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 in the last four races.
• Denny Hamlin has a 6.3 average finish in three starts.
• Greg Biffle has led the most laps (441) in the last four races.
• Kyle Busch is the defending race winner.
• Carl Edwards has finished in the top five in his last two starts.
Keep an Eye on at Darlington
• Matt Kenseth has finished seventh or better in his last three starts at Darlington.
• Mark Martin has an 8.5 average finish at Darlington in his last six starts.
• Darlington is Jeff Burton's best track on the circuit where he has made more than 20 starts based on his 11.5 average finish.
• Tony Stewart will be shooting for his fifth top five in the last six races in 2009.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top five in four of his last six starts at Darlington.
• Kurt Busch has the best average finish (7.0) in the last three races of the 2009 season.
Qualifying Tidbits
The pole position at Darlington has yielded the most race winners of any starting position, but no active drivers have won a Darlington race from the pole. All but 13 races at Darlington have been won from a starting position in the top 10. Greg Biffle captured the pole for last year's race. He will be joined by 10 other Darlington pole winners in qualifying Friday evening, including Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne who lead active drivers with three poles each. David Pearson leads all drivers with 12 poles at Darlington.
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Ryan Newman
Pete Pistone: Jeff Gordon
Rachael West: Denny Hamlin
Kym Opalenik: Greg Biffle
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
1. Jeff Gordon: Gordon leads all active drivers with seven victories at Darlington Raceway. His most recent win came in 2007 after starting 10th. The only two drivers that stand ahead of Gordon in wins at "The Track Too Tough to Tame" are Dale Earnhardt (9) and David Pearson (10). In the 2004 spring race Gordon placed 41st, his worst performance and sixth DNF at Darlington, after he was involved in an accident with Andy Hillenburg on lap 28. That same season he led 155 laps in the fall and finished third after a pit mis-cue under caution cost him a shot at victory in the closing laps. In 2006, Gordon started 12th and led five laps en route to his second consecutive runner-up finish. In 28 Darlington races, Gordon has led in 23 for 1,604 laps, won three poles and holds an 11.5 average finish. His last five finishes have been third or better. This weekend, Gordon will pilot the same car (chassis No. 466) that finished second at Auto Club Speedway.
2. Kurt Busch: This weekend, Busch will be making his fifth start (13th overall) with Penske Racing at Darlington Raceway. His best finish at the 1.366-mile speedway with Penske was a pair of 12th-place finishes in the last two races. His four top-10 finishes came with Roush Racing. This weekend, Busch will be debuting another one of Penske's next generation chassis (No. 608) in the Southern 500.
3. Tony Stewart: Stewart has captured two top fives and eight top 10s in 16 starts at Darlington Raceway. Stewart's only Darlington DNF came in the 2002 spring race after being collected by a spinning Buckshot Jones. The accident didn't stop there when Stewart's heavily damaged car then drifted down the track and into the racing groove where he was then T-boned by the car of Jimmy Spencer. Stewart, who ended up with a trip to the hospital after that race, led a career track-high seven laps in that event before the impact. Stewart, who has a 12.5 average finish at Darlington, will be making his Darlington debut with his Stewart-Haas racing Team.
4. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has yet to finish outside the top 10 in seven combined starts in the NASCAR Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series at Darlington Raceway. In 2007, he won his second consecutive Nationwide race from the pole and then went on to lead 179 laps en route to a second-place finish in the Cup race. Both finishes in 2006 came while he had 19 stitches in his left hand after he cut it on his team's hauler. Hamlin, who finished seventh last year, will be driving chassis No. 220 this weekend. The car's best finish this year was sixth at California. Hamlin also finished third at Indianapolis and in the fall Richmond race in 2008 with the car.
5. Kyle Busch: Busch is coming off a win at Darlington Raceway after leading 169 laps in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing. Busch's previous three starts at Darlington came with Hendrick Motorsports where he posted an average finish of 22.3. His other top 10 came in 2006 when he finished seventh.
6. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has competed in 10 races at Darlington Raceway. He has finished in the top 15 in every race except the 2003 spring race where he finished 27th after making contact with Sterling Marlin on lap 22. In 2004, he swept both races at Darlington after leading 69 laps in the spring event and 124 in the fall. Johnson's 7.4 average finish leads all drivers that have entered four or more events at the 1.366-mile speedway. This weekend's chassis (No. 502) has been used five times and was last piloted to a ninth-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway in March.
7. Jeff Burton: At Darlington Raceway, Burton has two wins, which came back-to-back in 1999. As rain began to fall at both the events in 1999, Burton, who was leading, was named the winner when the races were called. In his 26 starts at the track, he has eight top-five and 15 top-10 finishes and has led 786 laps. Burton's ninth and 10th-place finishes in the last three races were his first top 10s in five track starts with Richard Childress Racing. This weekend Burton will be back behind the wheel of the same car (chassis No. 271) that last finished third at Las Vegas and 14th at Atlanta.
8. Clint Bowyer: In 2006, Bowyer started third in his Sprint Cup debut at Darlington Raceway. He performed well in the opening laps but fell out of contention after a right-rear tire got away from the team on a pit stop. In 2007, he rebounded by winning the pole and then went on to finish ninth. Last season, Bowyer finished 15th to lower his overall finishing average to 15.7. This weekend, Bowyer will debut a new car (chassis No. 262) in the Southern 500.
9. Carl Edwards: Edwards's finishing average at Darlington Raceway took a major hit in 2006 after he finished 39th when the No. 99 suffered an engine problem. In his two starts prior, Edwards finished seventh and ninth, respectively. He led his first laps (4) at the track in 2005. The last two races have resulted in Edwards's first top fives (fifth and second) at Darlington. This weekend, Edwards will drive the same car (chassis No. 565) that finished third at Atlanta.
10. Ryan Newman: In 10 starts at Darlington Raceway, Newman has six top-10 finishes, with his best finish of second coming in his second track start on September 1, 2002. In the 2003 fall race, where he sat on the pole for the only time at Darlington, he led 120 of a track total 249 laps before a mishap on pit road caused the team to lose several laps and finish 23rd. Three of Newman's last four races at Darlington have resulted in finishes of sixth or better. This weekend, Newman will make his Darlington debut with Stewart-Hass Racing when he drives the same car that he drove to a seventh-place finish at Bristol Motor Speedway.
11. Greg Biffle: Biffle dominated the 2005 and 2006 races at Darlington Raceway after leading a combined 346 laps en route to two victories. His only other top-10 finish came in the 2003 August race when he led 70 laps before finishing 10th. Last year, Biffle started from the pole and finished 43rd after engine failure in the No. 16 Ford. This weekend, Biffle will be racing the same chassis (RK-566) that finished seventh at Las Vegas.
12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth will be making his 16th start at Darlington Raceway, where he has six top-10 and one top-five finish. Kenseth does boast two wins at Darlington in the Nationwide Series in 1999 and 2005, and he has led in six of his last seven starts there. Kenseth's last three finishes have been top 10s, including a sixth-place run in 2008.
13. David Reutimann: Reutimann has made two Sprint Cup starts at Darlington Raceway, finishing 33rd and 19th, respectively. His first finish was the result of an engine failure in his No. 00 Toyota.
14. Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya will be making his third-career start at Darlington Raceway where he has finished 23rd in his last two starts. This weekend, Montoya will drive chassis No. 815 for the first time this season. This chassis made six starts in 2008 with the last coming at Atlanta.
15. Mark Martin: Martin has made 42 starts at Darlington Raceway and has one win, 16 top fives and 25 top 10s. His last two starts came in a Chevrolet and broke a streak of four consecutive top 10s. Martin's success at Darlington came with Roush Racing, including his 1993 win where he led 178 laps. This weekend, Martin will pilot chassis No. 527 when he makes his Darlington debut with Hendrick Motorsports. This is the same car that ran inside the top 10 for the majority of the Auto Club race before the engine expired.
16. Brian Vickers: Vickers has finished 43rd and 25th, respectively, in his two starts at Darlington Raceway with Team Red Bull. In his previous four starts with Hendrick Motorsports he posted one top-20 finish.
17. Kasey Kahne: Kahne has competed in six races at Darlington Raceway. In his first race at Darlington in 2004 he started on the pole and finished 13th. In the next two races he finished fifth and third, respectively, and he claimed his second pole in this event in 2005. Kahne would go out to win one more pole, but has posted an average finish of 21.0 in his last three starts.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Earnhardt Jr. has competed in 14 races at Darlington Raceway scoring seven top-10 finishes. His best Darlington finish, fourth, came in the 2002 spring race. Junior has led in five races at Darlington, for a total of 170 laps. This weekend, Earnhardt will look to extend his four consecutive top 10s at Darlington when he makes his second track start with Hendrick Motorsports (finished fourth in 2008). Earnhardt Jr. will be driving the same car (chassis No. 526) that finished 14th at Bristol.
19. Marcos Ambrose: This weekend, Ambrose will be making his first Sprint Cup Series start at Darlington Raceway. He does have two Nationwide starts at the track with his best finish (10th) coming last season.
20. Casey Mears: This weekend, Mears will be making his first start with Richard Childress Racing at Darlington Raceway. He has made eight starts at the 1.366-mile speedway with his best finish (15th) coming with Chip Ganassi racing in 2004. In his last two starts driving a Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, he finished 35th. On Saturday, Mears will be driving a new car (chassis No. 270) in the Southern 500.
Southern 500 PostQ
This is one track in which you will want to be looking at the Roush-Fenway drivers. Last weekend at Richmond we recommended avoiding the team. This week we are all for the RDR drivers including the top ranking driver on the PostQ forecast Greg Biffle. Biffle did not have a very good day in this race last season finishing in the 43rd position. Although he finished dead last he is still considered to be the top ranking driver on NASCAR’s Driver Rating category. It also helps that he was the quickest driver on our Speed chart while qualifying in the 11th spot. Look for Biffle to contend for his first win of the season.
Another RFR driver you will want to consider is Matt Kenseth. Kenseth recorded just his seventh pole of his career at Darlington Raceway. Plus he has been fast in the practice sessions ranking in the 4th position on our Speed chart. He is averaging an 18th place finish in his 15 career starts at the track but has posted three straight top 10 finishes. Look out for the #17 DeWalt Ford this Saturday night.
The big question this weekend is will Jimmie Johnson be able to overcome a qualifying day crash. Johnson must now start the race in the 42nd position and due to recording a 0.000 qualifying time ranks just 39th on our Speed chart. Johnson has the ability to get his car to the front at the end of the day but that means he must avoid all of the trouble in front of him as he makes his way through the field. Johnson does run well at Darlington but he may be a driver you will want to avoid for the Southern 500 because all of the question marks surrounding the team.
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