STP 500 Betting News and Notes

Martinsville Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-Hour Energy Toyota)

· Four top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.1
· Average Running Position of 12.1, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.0, seventh-best
· 296 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.276 mph, sixth-fastest
· 6,586 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), seventh-most
· 613 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew Chevrolet)

· One win, 12 top fives, 17 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.4
· Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.2, fourth-best
· 523 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· Series-high 1,181 Green Flag Passes
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.386 mph, fourth-fastest
· 7,860 Laps in the Top 15 (78.3%), third-most
· 719 Quality Passes, second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Axalta Chevrolet)

· Eight wins, 28 top fives, 35 top 10s; seven poles
· Average finish of 6.8
· Series-best Average Running Position of 6.6
· Driver Rating of 119.8, second-best
· Series-high 1,105 Fastest Laps Run
· 1,000 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.689 mph, second-fastest
· 8,848 Laps in the Top 15 (88.2%), second-most
· Series-high 754 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)

· Four wins, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 8.7
· Average Running Position of 8.8, third-best
· Driver Rating of 110.1, third-best
· 612 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.473 mph, third-fastest
· 7,503 Laps in the Top 15 (83.1%), fourth-most
· 659 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Budweiser / Jimmy John's Chevrolet)

· One win, three top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.4
· Average Running Position of 14.4, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.8, eighth-best
· 255 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· 1,016 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.130 mph, eighth-fastest
· 6,475 Laps in the Top 15 (64.5%), eighth-most
· 593 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· Eight wins, 18 top fives, 22 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 6.2
· Average Running Position of 6.8, second-best
· Series-best Driver Rating of 122.5
· 1,041 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 91.700 mph
· Series-high 8,932 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%)
· 689 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Four top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.7
· Average Running Position of 15.7, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.9, 12th-best
· 178 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 1,097 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.043 mph, 11th-fastest
· 5,235 Laps in the Top 15 (52.2%), 12th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)

· Three top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 14.0
· Average Running Position of 15.1, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.1, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.036 mph, 12th-fastest

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 CESSNA Chevrolet)

· One top five, 12 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 17.3
· Driver Rating of 85.1, 11th-best
· 195 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.060 mph, 10th-fastest
· 5,471 Laps in the Top 15 (54.5%), 10th-most
· 452 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Quicken Loans Chevrolet)

· One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 15.0
· Average Running Position of 15.0, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.4, ninth-best
· 1,071 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· 5,843 Laps in the Top 15 (58.2%), ninth-most
· 568 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Code 3 Associates / Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 10 top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 13.6
· Average Running Position of 11.2, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.6, fifth-best
· 397 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.253 mph, seventh-fastest
· 6,711 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), sixth-most
· 471 Quality Passes, 10th-most

STP 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We’ve all been waiting for a driver to step up and not take any more of this Kevin Harvick domination to start 2015, and surprisingly the one that has is Harvick’s teammate Kurt Busch who raced to a top-5 finish for the consecutive week since being reinstated by NASCAR after missing the first three races of the season.

Neither of those two Stewart-Haas teammates won last week at Fontana as Brad Keselowski stole one after cautions flew on two separate occasions when Busch had one lap to go before victory was his, but it’s still clear these two cars have a major edge over everyone else in the new rules package, and they don‘t seem willing to share their secret with anyone -- not even car owner/teammate Tony Stewart.

Busch finished third for the second consecutive year at Fontana, but he easily had the car to beat over the weekend. He put on a speed display during Friday and Saturday practices that not even Harvick has pulled off this season. Busch had the fastest lap in all three practice sessions as well as the fastest 10-consecutive lap average in both Saturday sessions. He also won the pole.

Harvick no longer had that huge edge we have seen from the end of last season when he won the final two races to win his first Sprint Cup to this season when he won the first two races on the West Coast swing. However, he still managed to finish ahead of Busch in second-place which is his eighth straight top-2 finish.

That is unreal in this era of NASCAR!

This week, the playing field is more even for the drivers at Martinsville. Other than the road courses, Martinsville is the most reliant upon a drivers skills where a car that may not be the fastest can out duel the top power teams just because of the driver being the equalizer. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the top Martinsville performers come from those power teams.

But last season, it was Busch who won there in the spring for his only win of the season and then Dale Earnhardt Jr. won for the first time in 30 career start on the flat half-mile paper clip layout.

Prior to those two winning, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin had combined to win 18 of the previous 22 races. That’s a lot of noise being made at each of their homes with the Grandfather clocks Martinsville gives away as its trophy.

Harvick managed to break up the party in 2011 for his only Martinsville win. Tony Stewart won for the third and final time that same season. Ryan Newman won in the spring of 2012, but then it was back to the Johnson and Gordon show for the next three events until Busch broke through last season.

Johnson and Gordon each have eight Martinsville wins and Virginian Hamlin has four, but none since 2010.

The big question this week is whether or not Harvick can maintain his second-place or better run again because Martinsville has not been his best track. Johnson and Gordon will still be favored this week, but because of what Harvick and Busch have done lately, you’ll get favorable prices on either Gordon or Johnson. Because Hamlin has been off his game on his favorite track of late, he’ll also fetch higher odds than usual.

Two drivers you might able to go out on limb with this week is Stewart or Newman and each will be getting higher than 30/1 odds. Stewart should have his best run of the season. But I’m sticking with the meat and potatoes here.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1)

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- There's been nothing that can slow Kevin Harvick down so far this season. He's been dominant to the point that he's finished first or second in all fives races. If we take it back to last season, he's got a streak of top-two finishes that's currently at eight straight. It's one of the most incredible runs we've seen in NASCAR history, especially for the modern era.

However, none of those eight races were on the flat half-mile layout at Martinsville Speedway like Sunday's STP 500 will be. He's had only three top-five finishes in 27 starts with a 16.4 average finish on the track.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook knows all too well about Harvick's Martinsville history, which is why he isn't listed as the favorite. This is the case for the first time since the season opening Daytona 500, where anyone has a legitimate chance to win.

Let's take a look at all the drivers' odds offered by the Westgate along with how they have fared at Martinsville over their careers.

JIMMIE JOHNSON 7/2: It seems like an eternity since the last time he won here, but only three races have passed since winning in the spring of 2013. It's just because for a decade, no one was better, including his teammate Jeff Gordon. In 26 starts, he's averaged a 6.2 finish that includes eight wins. He's got a long way to go to catch Richard Petty's track record 15 wins, but consider that Petty had 67 starts, or one win in every 4.4 Martinsville starts. Johnson gets one win in every 3.2 starts, and that means he's due here after failing in his last three starts which is part of the reason he's the easy favorite this week.

KEVIN HARVICK 5/1: It's amazing that Harvick hasn't fared better over his career here because he grew up racing on the short flat tracks. It's the type of racing that shaped the no-nonsense attitude that we all have grown fond of. He did win in the spring of 2011, and then finished fourth in the fall of the same year. It really is astonishing that he's only had one other top-five finish in all 25 other starts, including 33rd last fall. The only reason his odds are as low as they this time around is just because he's currently in a zone, and the books aren't doubting that he can win despite history saying he most likely won't.

JEFF GORDON 5/1: Just like Johnson, Gordon's house can be quite noisy at the top of the hour with eight grandfather clock (Martinsville trophy) bells chiming away. In 44 career starts, he's had an average finish of 6.8 aided by 28 top-five finishes. It's the one track that he has remained dominant at throughout all phases of his career between different crew chiefs, and even two different wives. It would only seem fitting if he closed out his final season of Sprint Cup racing with at least one more Martinsville win, and the good news for Gordon backers this week is that he's using the same chassis that finished second here last fall.

DENNY HAMLIN 7/1: There was a time when he was one of the co-favorites with Gordon and Johnson for every Martinsville race. During one stretch, the trio won 18 of 22 races, with Hamlin contributing four wins, but that last win came in 2010 when he swept the season. Last fall, there were signs that he was back to being himself again at the track he grew up racing on, only three hours from his Chesterfield, VA home; he finished eighth, but led twice for 68 laps. We'll get a better idea during Friday and Saturday practices where Hamlin stands with the elite, but expect a top-5 start position like last fall, which will be a good sign. Start position is huge at Martinsville where 71 percent of all races have been from a top-10 qualifier.

DALE EARNHARDT JR 10/1: He's always been good at Martinsville, but he just happened to get stuck in the wrong generation with all-time greats like Johnson and Gordon hogging all the wins. After 30 starts, he finally got his grandfather clock last fall. He'll be using that same winning chassis this week and offers pretty good value at 10-to-1. It might be his turn to start reeling off some wins for Hendrick Motorsports who have gathered a track record 22 wins.

BRAD KESELOWSKI 10/1: This should be his perfect type of race track. He had a great run of four straight races of ninth or better until last season, when his career average took a dive thanks to a 38th and 31st. Still, his 15.2 average in 10 starts is better than Harvick's.

JOEY LOGANO 10/1: He's had three top-five finishes in 12 starts and two of them came last season. Between both 2014 races, Logano led four times for 99 laps. It's safe to say that the kid is getting the hang of it.

KURT BUSCH 18/1: This is probably the best value on the board just because of the roll he's on (two starts and two top-fives) and the fact that he won this race last season -- his only win of 2014. He also won here in 2002 for Roush Racing.

MATT KENSETH 20/1: In 30 starts, he's had only four top-five finishes, but he appears to be getting better with age. Maybe it's hanging out with Hamlin to get Martinsville pointers since he joined Joe Gibbs Racing. He's finished sixth or better in his last three starts, including a career-best runner-up in a pressure packed Chase race in 2013.

CLINT BOWYER 20/1: He's had top-10 finishes in past six starts, including a career best second-place in 2013. In 18 career starts, he's got a snappy 12.1 average finish. It's been a disappointing 2015 so far, but he'll be pumped for this one because he knows he'll get another great finish and maybe jump start the team to better things down the road.

CARL EDWARDS 25/1: Things sure haven't turned out the way he expected since coming over to JGR. The good news is that he's not driving the jalopies Roush Fenway Racing are producing this year. The bad news is that Martinsville hasn't been his best track with his only top-five finish coming in 2008.

KASEY KAHNE 25/1: In 22 starts, he's got three top-five finishes and a 21st-place average finish. He's finished 22nd or worse in his last three starts, including 40th last fall.

RYAN NEWMAN 25/1: He's given very attractive odds here and is probably the best value among all drivers 20-to-1 or higher. He's on a great run to start the season (three top-fives) and he's had some great moments here, such as third-place during the Chase last year and stealing a win from Johnson and Gordon in 2012. That win was paved by Bowyer wiping out Gordon, who was leading late, and they've been feuding ever since.

KYLE LARSON 40/1: This track can't be a welcomed sight for Larson who has taken his lumps with a 40th, 27th and 30th in his three career starts. The bright side is that almost anything will be an improvement.

MARTIN TRUEX JR 40/1: He's one of three drivers with top-10 finishes in all five races this season, which is two more than he's had in nine years of racing at Martinsville. Expect a good run and for him to compete for another top-10, which makes him a good play in driver match-ups. Consistency can be contagious.

JAMIE McMURRAY 40/1: He's been a lot more competitive here than his 17.3 average finish in 22 starts would indicate.

TONY STEWART 40/1: This should be the race where we see Stewart step it up and look similar to his former self. In addition to three wins here, which were all at different stages of his career, he was fourth last fall. Even if his car isn't up the standards of teammates Harvick and Busch, Martinsville is the great driver equalizer where the good ones can take lemons and make Lynchburg Lemonade.

DAVID RAGAN 75/1: A 22nd-place average finish over 17 starts with a best of eighth in 2011. He finished 10th last fall.

CHASE ELLIOTT 75/1: Welcome to the show, kid. He'll make his Sprint Cup debut in the No. 25 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy (Isn't each team only allowed four official cars?). He raced in the Camping World Truck Series twice and finished sixth in 2013.

PAUL MENARD 75/1: He's slowly getting better on the short tracks, but his best finish in 15 starts came with 10th-place in this race last year.

AUSTIN DILLON 100/1: He could be in store for his best finish of the season due to getting more comfortable with half-mile tracks. He had 15th and 12th-place finishes last season and also finished third in a Truck series race in 2011. He's using that 12th-place car this week as well.

GREG BIFFLE 100/1: You have to love Biffle at Martinsville. It seems like over the past 14 years, he's given us plenty of excitement outside of the car in heated confrontations with Harvick and even Jimmie Johnson. He's been punted several times during the races which has led to poorer finishes than he deserved. Things are tougher than ever this year, but he could be in store for a top-10 and a decent play at plus-money in match-ups. He's a fighter and will battle all day knowing he has a say in how he finishes as opposed to the downforce tracks where he has little power in every sense of the word. .

AJ ALLMENDINGER 100/1: In 2012, he was runner-up and last season he finished 11th and ninth. Expect a solid run out of him and will be a good play in match-ups.

ARIC ALMIROLA 200/1: After a real bumpy start to his career at Martinsville, he's been very good with a career-best fourth in 2012 and eighth in this race last season.

DANICA PATRICK 300/1: She had a surprising 12th-place finish in her first ever run on the track, but it's been downhill from there. Still, her 23.8 average finish is better than several Cup drivers including her boyfriend. A fun prop bet to play with your friends watching the race is picking which lap it will be when the green No. 10 is punted to bring out a caution.

TREVOR BAYNE 300/1: He started one race here in 2011 and finished 35th.

RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300/1: He finished 15th last fall, but has a 27.8 average finish in four career starts.

SAM HORNISH JR 300/1: His best finish was 13th twice, including his last Cup start here in 2012. In seven starts, he's got a 26.1 average finish.

CASEY MEARS 500/1: Three top-10 finishes in 23 starts with a 23.5 average.

FIELD 300/1: Good luck on this one, but everyone still fires away on it like their getting value because of having multiple drivers. Seriously, the Westgate will have double-digit ticket counts on this bet. People, save your money, or bet the $5 on Junior or Busch where you at least have a chance of cashing.

Chassis Selections
Jayski.com

#3-Austin Dillon will pilot Chassis No. 489 in the Martinsville 500 at Martinsville Speedway. This is the same Chevrolet SS that Dillon raced at Martinsville Speedway in October 2014, securing a 12th-place finish.
#4-Kevin Harvick: will pilot the No. 4 Budweiser/Jimmy John's Chevrolet SS built on Chassis No. 4-864 in the Martinsville 500 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race Sunday at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway. Built in 2014, Chassis No. 4-864 made its debut at Martinsville last March, when it started 18th and led one lap and finished seventh. It made its second appearance at Martinsville in October, when it started 33rd and finished 33rd after being collected in an accident with Matt Kenseth.
#5-Kasey Kahne: Crew chief Keith Rodden has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 5-925 for Sunday's race at Martinsville. This is a brand new car.
#10-Danica Patrick: will pilot Chassis No. 909 in the Martinsville 500. Previously a No. 41 team chassis, the car made its on-track debut with her Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) teammate Kurt Busch last October at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway. He started 10th, led 21 laps and raced inside the top-10 until an oil line failure on lap 424 relegated him to a 36th-place finish.
#15-Clint Bowyer: Chassis No. 806 serves as Bowyer's primary chassis at Martinsville. Bowyer raced the chassis to top-10 finishes in both Martinsville races in 2014. He finished ninth in March and seventh in October. This weekend's back-up chassis also served as the back-up at both Martinsville races in 2014.
#24-Jeff Gordon: #24 crew chief Alan Gustafson has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 24-902 for this Sunday's race. Gordon raced this chassis to a runner-up finish at Martinsville in October of last year.
#27-Paul Menard: will utilize chassis No. 488 during the 263-mile event at Martinsville Speedway. This Richard Childress Racing-prepared Chevrolet SS will make its first laps of the 2015 season.
#31-Ryan Newman: will drive chassis No. 490 on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. This is a brand new Chevrolet SS that will be utilized under race conditions for the first time this weekend.
#32-Mike Bliss: Crew Chief Clinton Cram will be bringing chassis 669 to serve as the primary car. This chassis previously ran at the fall Martinsville event in 2015 with Kyle Fowler finishing 28th in his NSCS debut. Chassis 289 will serve as the backup car.
#41-Kurt Busch: will pilot Chassis No. 865 in Sunday's Martinsville 500 at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway. Formerly a No. 10 chassis for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) teammate Danica Patrick, Chassis No. 865 debuted in March 2014 at Martinsville , where Patrick started 10th but struggled with an ill-handling racecar and finished 32nd. Its next event was in July at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, where she started 29th and finished 22nd. Chassis No. 865 then raced again at Martinsville in October, where Patrick started 30th and finished 34th after being involved in a massive accident on the frontstretch late in the race. Chassis No. 865 will see its first laps of 2015 competition this weekend.
#48-Jimmie Johnson: For this weekend's event, crew chief Chad Knaus has selected chassis No. 48-913, which Johnson raced last October at Martinsville. The backup car is No. 48-749, which Johnson raced at Martinsville in March 2014.
#55-Brett Moffitt: Primary: 807 - Brian Vickers drove this chassis to 16th and 27th-place finishes at Martinsville in 2014. Backup: 785 - served as backup in Martinsville in 2014.
#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Crew chief Greg Ives will unload Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 88-789 for this weekend's race at Martinsville Speedway. Earnhardt most recently won with the chassis at Martinsville last October.

Drivers to Watch - Martinsville
By Sportsbook.ag

The fifth race of the Sprint Cup Series ensues at Martinsville Speedway as the drivers run in the STP 500, a 263-mile event that has been held since 1950. The oval-shaped track is sometimes referred to as a paper clip with long straightaways and 12-degree bankings on each side of the multi-paved surface with straightaways being asphalt and the corners being concrete.

Of the racers in the field this week, three have won multiple times as this event as Jeff Gordon (1997, 2003, 2005) and Jimmie Johnson (2007, 2009, 2013) have three victories and Denny Hamlin (2008, 2010) has won twice. Last year, Kurt Busch earned the checkered flag for the first time since joining Stewart-Haas Racing and overcame 33 lead changes throughout the day; a track record. Now that we have the season in full swing, let’s take a look over the entry list and see who has the advantage going into the weekend.

Drivers to Bet

Denny Hamlin (6/1) - As mentioned above, Hamlin has won here twice before and in total has four victories at the course while holding an impressive average finish of 8.7 and a driver rating of 110.1; third-best among active drivers. He’s been in the top-15 83.1% of the time when on this track and can make his way from deep in the pack forward with 659 career quality passes (5th-most). Hamlin has been all over the place this year, getting two top-fives sandwiched around a few finishes outside of the top-20, but he is coming to a spot where he is obviously comfortable and should show up ready to go.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1) - Earnhardt Jr. has pretty favorable odds despite ranking in the top-six at four of the first five races this year. He has led a total of 37 laps in that time and should do well once again as he has 12 career top-fives at this track in 30 starts. Those impressive runs have led him to an average finish of 12.4 here while owning a driving rating of 101.2 (4th-best among active drivers). He is among the most experienced drivers at this venue and could be a real factor on Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (16/1) - He has four top-fives at this course in the past and has a solid driver rating of 84.9, ranking him 12th among his peers. He has been all over the place this year and has just two top-10’s despite leading 54 laps on the year and most of those came last week in California as he started in the third spot and led a total of 43 laps before eventually finishing in 31st. Kenseth has the third-most green flag passes (1,097) at Martinsville and that should help him, especially if he can get a solid starting spot.

Martin Truex Jr. (33/1) -Truex Jr. has been on an absolute tear to start this season, going a perfect 5-for-5 in top-10 finishes as he’s improved on his starting position each time. He currently ranks third in the Sprint Cup Standings and is running hot since his best career finish is 11th in the series. He’s raced on this track 18 times in his career, putting up a pretty poor driver rating of 68.7, but with the odds he’s getting and how well he’s been racing, it would not be a surprise to see him compete for his third career victory.

Aric Almirola (200/1) - Almirola has been one of the more consistent racers this year despite failing to crack the top-10 as he has finished between 11th and 20th in four of his five performances. He also does have three top-10s at this track over 12 visits in his career and one victory, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to see his consistency pay off with a strong showing in Virginia this week.

Sportsbook.ag - Odds to win STP 500

Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Jeff Gordon 5/1
Kevin Harvick 5/1
Denny Hamlin 7/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1
Joey Logano 10/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Carl Edwards 25/1
Kasey Kahne 25/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Kyle Larson 40/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Tony Stewart 40/1
Chase Elliot 75/1
David Ragan 75/1
Paul Menard 75/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
Aric Almirola 200/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse 300/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 300/1
Trevor Bayne 300/1
Casey Mears 500/1

Check out more NASCAR Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!