STP 500 Betting News and Notes

Martinsville - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Four top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.818, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.559, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, ninth-best
· 356 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.154, seventh-fastest
· 7112 Laps in the Top 15 (64.5), seventh-most
· 697 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, 11 top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.087, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.989, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.9, third-best
· 533 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.313, fourth-fastest
· 8533 Laps in the Top 15 (74.0), third-most
· 752 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 20.917, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.006, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.0, 12th-best
· 177 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 90.912, 13th-fastest
· 6091 Laps in the Top 15 (50.6), 12th-most
· 578 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.957, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.941, third-best
· Driver Rating of 98.7, fourth-best
· 576 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.327, third-fastest
· 8466 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4), fourth-most
· 817 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Five wins, 12 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 9.227, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.578, second-best
· Driver Rating of 108.2, second-best
· 752 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.441, second-fastest
· 8897 Laps in the Top 15 (80.6), second-most
· 811 Quality Passes, third-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, three top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.000, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.244, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.6, fifth-best
· 460 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.155, sixth-fastest
· 8078 Laps in the Top 15 (67.1), fifth-most
· 737 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Nine wins, 19 top fives, 24 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 6.750, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.990, series-best
· Driver Rating of 117.7, series-best
· 1098 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.574, series-fastest
· 10330 Laps in the Top 15 (85.8 ), series-most
· 818 Quality Passes, series-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 20.167, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 20.050, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 77.2, 13th-best
· 281 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 90.932, 11th-fastest
· 4503 Laps in the Top 15 (37.4), 13th-most
· 427 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Six top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 13.542, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.221, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.9, eighth-best
· 317 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.085, ninth-fastest
· 7084 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9), ninth-most
· 610 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Four top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 13.786, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.793, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 90.8, sixth-best
· 253 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.198, fifth-fastest
· 4534 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6), sixth-most
· 522 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Four top fives, six top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 14.250, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.411, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, seventh-best
· 205 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.100, eighth-fastest
· 4935 Laps in the Top 15 (61.5), eighth-most
· 515 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, 15 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.708, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.277, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.2, 11th-best
· 223 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 91.046, 10th-fastest
· 6959 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8 ), 10th-most
· 601 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 14.333, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.135, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.3, 10th-best
· 170 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 90.925, 12th-fastest
· 6800 Laps in the Top 15 (56.5), 11th-most
· 656 Quality Passes, seventh-most

STP 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Kyle Larson has only one win this season and two career Cup wins while in his fourth season, but I'm getting the feeling it he's going to have double-digit wins and possibly end up with a championship. He's got a 1998 Jeff Gordon look about him so far.

Larson kept his incredible start to 2017 going Sunday at Fontana with a win following three consecutive second-place finishes and he's got Las Vegas taking notice. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as the 6/1 co-favorite (Bet $100 to win $600) with four other drivers to win NASCAR's Cup Series Championship. He's right there on the same plateau as Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. Jimmie Johnson, who won his seventh title last season, is listed at 8/1 odds. That is some serious respect given to Larson, and well deserved.

Double-digit wins by Larson may be a bit of an exaggeration by me, but it's clear at this early juncture that Larson and Martin Truex Jr. have the new low downforce package figured out the best on the tracks where it makes the biggest impact.

Three of the five races so far have been tracks where the package means everything and there are still nine more races on 1.5-mile tracks and two more at Michigan's 2-mile layout. Joe Gibbs Racing has been a little sluggish so far on these tracks after dominating on them the past two seasons. The new Toyota Camry body design may have something to do with JGR's slow start, but Truex is using the same equipment and same body design and doesn't seem to have the same problems as his four defacto teammates.

This weekend at Martinsville, we can clean the slate on data accumulated between races at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Fontana. The low downforce package will have little effect on the outcome on the flat half-mile layout. This track usually has the same group of guys winning on it twice a year. When looking back the past 14 years of Martinsville results, four drivers combined to win 22 of the 28 races.

Two of those four drivers have retired in the past two seasons. Jeff Gordon had nine wins all-time there while Tony Stewart had three, which leaves Jimmie Johnson (nine wins) and Denny Hamlin (five wins) as the lone Martinsville dominators in what is obviously the dawning of a new era in NASCAR. The door is left open for some new blood to jump into the Martinsville mix.

Just who might those drivers be? Kyle Larson finished third in this race last season and you have to consider him just because of current form, but the style of tough hard-nosed racing doesn't fit his profile like the bigger faster tracks do. Last years third-place was his only top-10 finish in six starts which he's averaged a 22nd-place average.

We can't really call 2015 Cup Champion Kyle Busch "new blood", but he's only been able to capture one win in 23 starts because of Hamlin, Gordon and Johnson hogging all the grandfather clock trophies. He won this race last season and it was sandwiched around two fifth-place finishes. His upbringing in car racing in Las Vegas at the Bull Ring saw him dominate like the LVMS short track has never seen. This should typically be his best type of track.

It took Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30 starts to finally win his first race at Martinsville in the fall of 2014, but he's always ran well there with a 12.9 average finish in 33 starts. He's yet to have top-10 this season but he's a great bet to do so this week.

Brad Keselowski has four top-fives in 14 starts, but no wins with a 13.7 average finish. He's got the mentality and temperament to be good here, but it hasn't happened yet. His teammate Joey Logano had a Martinsville win in hand in the fall of 2015, but a late payback hit while leading by a vengeful Matt Kenseth halted it from happening. Still, Logano has averaged a 14.3 finish in 16 starts with a best of second-place in 2010.

A good long shot to take notice of this week is Clint Bowyer because he's finally got a Stewart Haas car that can compete and show his true skills as a driver after being in a jalopy the past few years. Flat tracks have always been his best types. In 22 Martinsville starts he's averaged a 14.8 finish, but that average is muddied from his past three races driving junk that saw him finish 25th or worse. From 2012 to 2014, he had a run of six straight top-10 finishes including runner-up in 2013. Last week he finished third in Fontana. It's aweseom seeing Bowyer matter again in the series.

Kevin Harvick grabbed his only Martinsville win in 2011 and his fourth-place finish later that season was his last top-5. Ten races have passed since then, but the type of racing this track produces is right up his alley.

I'm sticking with the meat and potatoes here with Hamlin and Johnson until I see someone else step up and those names will be identified during Friday and Saturday's practices. Johnson won the fall race last season and is probably really looking forward to coming here after a sluggish start.

Hamlin hails from Virginia and its the two races he circles on his calendar each year. He comes in knowing he's going to win each time out and is the best and entering and exiting the tights turns at maximum speed. He last won in 2015 and finished third in the fall last season.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (10/1)
5) #14 Clint Bowyer (25/1)

STP 500 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox,com

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Ridgeway for the STP 500 on Sunday. Last week, the drivers competed in the Auto Club 400 in California. Kyle Larson won that race, and it was much deserved for the 24-year-old. He had finished in second place in three consecutive events, so it’s only right that he was finally able to break through and win. This race, meanwhile, is one that guys like Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin will be looking forward to. Both guys have won this race three times in their careers, and they have a ton of work to do if they want to catch Richard Petty for most wins all-time in the STP 500. Petty is currently sitting on a ridiculous nine wins here, and it’s likely nobody will touch that mark ever again. Both Darrell Waltrip and Rusty Wallace are tied for second-most wins here, as each of them has won this race five times in their careers. Due to Petty’s dominance on this track, it’s not surprising to find that Petty Enterprises is the team with the most wins here all-time. Petty Enterprises has 12 wins in this race, and Hendrick Motorsports is next with eight. Chevrolet, meanwhile, is the most successful manufacturer, as a Chevy driver has won this race 26 times. With that out of the way, here’s a look at some of the best plays for Sunday’s race:

Denny Hamlin (11-to-2) - Denny Hamlin is the favorite to win Sunday’s race and it is for good reason. Hamlin has been dominant at this event in his career, as he won this race in 2008, 2010 and 2015. Last year, Hamlin lost control on Turn 1 and ended up wrecking. He finished in 39th place, but he’ll be back to compete for another victory on Sunday. He’ll be hungrier than ever, as he’ll want to get the bad taste from last year’s result out of his mouth and also needs to earn his first victory of the season before it’s too late.

Jimmie Johnson (7-to-1) - Jimmie Johnson is coming off of a lousy 21st finish at the Auto Club 400, and he can really use a win on Sunday. Johnson was last year’s Series champion and has not yet won a race this season. The clock is starting to tick and he will definitely race with a sense of urgency on Sunday. It also helps that Johnson has been pretty good here in his career. Johnson won this race back in 2007, 2009 and 2013. He has also finished inside the top-10 twice since that victory in 2013. He’s worth a shot at 7-to-1.

Kevin Harvick (10-to-1) - Kevin Harvick is getting some favorable odds on Sunday at 10-to-1, and he definitely has a chance of entering victory lane after this one. Harvick won this race back in 2011, and he has been solid here since then. He has two other top-10 finishes in Virginia, and there’s a pretty good shot he’ll be competing for the top spot on Sunday. It also helps that he has two top-10 finishes this season, as it shows he is driving pretty well heading into this weekend.

Ryan Blaney (55-to-1) - When looking for this week’s potential dark horse winner, Ryan Blaney is somebody that stands out. Blaney has been driving extremely well this season and it appears the oddsmakers haven’t caught on. Heading into this race, Blaney has finished inside the top-10 at two of the past three events. He also finished in second place at the Daytona 500 in the first race of the year. His break could be coming, much like Larson’s.

Martinsville Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway.

Who's HOT at Martinsville

• Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in his last three starts, including a win in this event last year.
• Joey Logano has won the last three poles, led 417 laps and finished in the top 10 three times in the last five races.
• Five-time winner Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races, including a win in the 2015 spring race.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with nine wins and 2,838 laps led.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in three of the last four races.
• Martin Truex Jr. has the best average finish (9.3) among all drivers that have competed in all of the last four races. He also won the pole and led 147 laps last fall.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Martinsville

• Kyle Larson, who finished third in this event in 2016, has posted four consecutive finishes of second or better in the last four races this season, including a win last weekend.
• Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races at Martinsville. He also participated in the Goodyear tire test last fall along with Paul Menard and Truex.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has not led a lap in his last three Martinsville starts, but does four top 10s in his last six starts, including a win in the 2014 fall race.
• Matt Kenseth has led 568 laps and finished in the top 10 in five of his eight Martinsville starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Kevin Harvick, who will be without crew chief Rodney Childers this weekend, has three top 10s and 265 laps led in his six Martinsville starts with Stewart-Haas Racing.
• Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman each rank in the top 10 in driver ratings at Martinsville.
• Kasey Kahne and Chase Elliott each ranked in the top 10 in points scored at short tracks in 2016. Elliott will also run the truck race on Saturday.
• AJ Allmendinger, who is looking for his first top 15 since Daytona, has the third best average finish (7.7) in the last three races at Martinsville.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Robbie Mays: Kyle Busch
Tyler Burnett: Brad Keselowski
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Martinsville

Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in his last three Martinsville starts. He won this event last year after leading a race-high 352 laps. Busch led the series in laps led (689) at short tracks in 2016.

Denny Hamlin scored his fifth Martinsville win in this event in 2015. An accident last year in the spring race is his only finish outside the top eight in his last five starts. Hamlin finished sixth or better in the last four short track races in 2016, including a win at Richmond.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four Martinsville starts. He is a two-time pole winner and led 84 laps in the 2014 fall race.

Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in three of his six starts at Martinsville with Richard Childress Racing, including a 10th last year in this event. Newman does have one win at the track, coming in 2012 with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Joey Logano has combined to lead 456 laps in the last six races at Martinsville, which ranks first among all drivers. During that five-race span, Logano recorded three poles and four top-10 finishes, including three in the top five. He led 207 laps in the 2015 fall race before being taken out by Matt Kenseth. Last year, Logano scored the most top 10s at short tracks with five.

Matt Kenseth has finished sixth or better in five of his last seven starts at Martinsville. His only finish (38th) outside the top 15 in that span came when he was parked for intentionally wrecking Joey Logano. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, Kenseth has led 568 laps, which ranks second among all drivers in that eight-race span. Last fall, Kenseth led 176 laps and finished fourth.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished eighth or better in four of his last six starts at Martinsville, including a win in the 2014 fall race.

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts at Martinsville. In the one finish outside the top five (38th) Keselowski led 143 laps before being involved in a late-race multi-car crash on lap 434 while running second. Keselowski, who ranks third in stage 1 and 2 points earned, has finished in the top five in the last four races of the season.

AJ Allmendinger has finished 11th or better in his last three Martinsville starts, including a runner-up in this event last year. Since finishing third in the Daytona 500, Allmendinger has yet to post a top-15 finish.

Martin Truex Jr. has finished seventh or better in three of the last four races at Martinsville. He finished seventh last fall after leading 147 laps from the pole. This season, Truex ranks fourth in points earned in Stage 1 and 2.

Kyle Larson finished third last year in this event for his only top 10 in six starts at Martinsville. He's finished second or better in the last four races this season, including a win last weekend at Auto Club Speedway. Larson is also the only driver that has recorded points in all 10 stages this year.

Paul Menard finished eighth last year in this event for his second top 10 in 19 starts at Martinsville. Since finishing fifth in the Daytona 500, Menard has yet to post a top-15 finish.

Kevin Harvick has posted a 15.5 average finish in his six starts with Stewart-Haas Racing at Martinsville. He's combined to lead 265 laps and his best finish in that span came in this event in 2014 in seventh. Daniel Knost will serve as Harvick's Crew Chief this weekend in place of the suspended Rodney Childers. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 842) that he last finished sixth with at Indianapolis in 2016.

Jimmie Johnson is coming off his ninth Martinsville win after leading 92 laps last fall. The fall race marked the first time Johnson had led a lap since this event in 2014. Johnson is the active leader in laps led at Martinsville with 2,838.

Austin Dillon finished fourth in this event last year for his only top 10 in six starts at Martinsville.