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Driver Highlights - Phoenix

Greg Biffle (No. 16 U.S. Census Ford)

# Three top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 14.8
# Average Running Position of 13.8, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 99.8, fifth-best
# 268 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# 361 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.201 mph, third-fastest
# 2,140 Laps in the Top 15 (68.6%), seventh-most
# 214 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)

# Two wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 10.8
# Average Running Position of 14.4, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 86.9, 12th-best
# Series-high 497 Green Flag Passes
# 2,010 Laps in the Top 15 (64.4%), 11th-most
# 250 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

# One win, four top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 12.0
# Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
# Driver Rating of 104.6, second-best
# 219 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.139 mph, sixth-fastest
# 2,311 Laps in the Top 15 (82.3%), fifth-most
# 185 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Snickers Toyota)

# One win, one top five, six top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.5
# Average Running Position of 12.5, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 92.2, 10th-best
# 411 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 122.873 mph, 12th-fastest
# 2,594 Laps in the Top 15 (83.1%), third-most
# Series-high 291 Quality Passes

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)

# Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 19.2
# Driver Rating of 86.7, 13th-best
# 94 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 122.944 mph, 11th-fastest
# 1,803 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8%), 13th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)

# Four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.3
# Average Running Position of 13.7, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.8, seventh-best
# 191 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.297 mph, second-fastest
# 2,091 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), ninth-most
# 224 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)

# One win, eight top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 10.8
# Average Running Position of 9.9, third-best
# Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
# 80 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.061 mph, ninth-fastest
# 2,606 Laps in the Top 15 (83.5%), second-most
# 183 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)

# Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 9.6
# Average Running Position of 11.2, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.8, sixth-best
# 108 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
# 359 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.168 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,196 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2%), sixth-most
# 222 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)

# Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 15.1
# Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 94.6, ninth-best
# 142 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.018 mph, 10th-fastest
# 2,113 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7%), eighth-most
# 177 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)

# Four wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 5.1
# Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
# Series-best Driver Rating of 123.0
# Series-high 354 Fastest Laps Run
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 123.610 mph
# Series-high 2,987 Laps in the Top 15 (95.7%)
# 251 Quality Passes, third-most

Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)

# Two wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 8.8
# Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 103.8, third-best
# 228 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.194 mph, fourth-fastest
# 1,989 Laps in the Top 15 (70.8%), 12th-most
# 174 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)

# One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
# Average finish of 11.0
# Average Running Position of 10.9, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 97.8, eighth-best
# 114 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 413 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.134 mph, seventh-fastest
# 2,346 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), fourth-most
# 249 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)

# One top five, four top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 15.5
# Average Running Position of 14.1, 11th-best
# Driver Rating of 89.7, 11th-best
# 85 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.071 mph, eighth-fastest
# 174 Quality Passes, 13th-most

 
Posted : April 6, 2010 9:49 am
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Phoenix International Raceway Data

Track Size: 1 mile

# Banking/1 and 2: 11 degrees
# Banking/3 and 4: 9 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 3 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees
# Frontstretch: 1,179 feet
# Backstretch: 1,551 feet

Driver Rating at Phoenix

Jimmie Johnson 123.0
Kurt Busch 104.6
Mark Martin 103.8
Jeff Gordon 99.8
Greg Biffle 99.8
Denny Hamlin 98.8
Carl Edwards 98.8
Tony Stewart 97.8
Kevin Harvick 94.6
Kyle Busch 92.2

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-09 races (10 total) at Phoenix.

Qualifying/Race Data

2009 pole winner: Mark Martin (133.814 mph, 26.903 seconds)
2009 race winner: Mark Martin (108.042 mph, 4-18-10)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (135.854 mph, 26.499 seconds, 11-5-04)
Track race record: Tony Stewart (118.132 mph, 11-7-99)

Pit Window: Approximately 70-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.

 
Posted : April 6, 2010 9:50 am
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NASCAR hits Phoenix
By Micah Roberts

We’re only six races into the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup season and the circuit will be making it’s third visit of the season west of the Mississippi when they roll into Phoenix for the first night race of the year. Then a week later, they make a stop at Texas before heading back to some traditional roots in Talladega.

With the west side visits still seem somewhat new even though they’ve been coming out here regularly for over a decade, one thing that seems to be getting old for many is Jimmie Johnson leading in points. It’s only been four straights years with a title, but if you add up the two previous years before he won that he probably should have, and tack on this years outstanding performance, the California driver is a huge sign of the new NASCAR.

Two weeks ago in Martinsville, Johnson didn’t have his car ever at Martinsville, but still took it to a top-10 finish. After Kevin Harvick fell out early and Matt Kenseth got punted late, there was Mr. Johnson backing into his familiar position of number one in points.

Even on what may have been his worst car ever for a Martinsville, he still gains two positions in the standings. The law of physics and averages should always somehow equate for the lucky factor balancing out over the long haul, but Johnson seems to have used up more luck than a three-legged dog named Lucky.

Then when you compound just how good he and his team are week to week, you’re left scratching your head saying, “Man, this guy don’t need no luck.”

Ever since Phoenix has gone to two races a year back in 2006, Johnson has dominated like no other. Heck, even if you include his four races prior to 2006, no one has been better. He’s got an average finish of 5.1 and comes in winning four of the last five Phoenix races. Over his last seven races, he’s finished no worse than fourth. His worst performance ever was 15th, which he’s done twice, and has helped contribute to that awful 5.1 average.

Phoenix starts the mid-range flat track season for NASCAR which includes new Hampshire and Richmond. Although all are different in configuration, most teams that have success on one track always run well on the others prompting crew chiefs to usually bring the exact same chassis to each.

The drivers should give a good run for Johnson’s money include all three Childress drivers, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin, and Tony Stewart.

Martin was stellar at all three tracks, Richmond, New Hampshire, and Phoenix at the tail end of last season that included a win and two fourth-place finishes. Martin also won this particular race last season denying Johnson of four straight Phoenix wins. The win was the second of his career at Phoenix that also has him with 11 top-5 finishes.

Jeff Burton used to be the Phoenix sun-king while he drove for Jack Roush with two wins and a host of other top-5 finishes. Burton was also equally good at the same time during his reign in Phoenix at New Hampshire.

Last season, his team debuted some new chassis’ down the stretch as they were attempting to get a jump on the 2010 campaign for what was an awful 2009 season for the entire team, and it worked well. Burton finished second in the fall race and has carried that momentum into this year showing both improved handling and horsepower in nearly every race.

We all know how Denny Hamlin loves Richmond, and he treats Phoenix the same way, except calling it home. After having a finish of 34th-place in his first Cup race, he’s gone a tear over his last seven starts there that include four third-place finishes. He finally had something good happen to him at Martinsville with a win and should be set-up nice to compete this week a well.

The one issue with Hamlin this week is having to race after having ACL surgery last week. It’s not known yet how it will affect his driving ability. If there is discomfort, Casey Mears will be available to take over during one of the pit stops.

Phoenix was a track that Jeff Gordon could never win at through his great career, even when he was the original Jimmie Johnson-type from the 1990’s. He finally took the checkers in 2007 after series of quality runs. Since then, Gordon hasn’t been so good there. In his last five races there, his best finish has been ninth, mixed in with a 41st and 25th-place finish, not exactly numbers expected from someone of Gordon’s stature considering who his cars room with in the Hendrick garages.

Tony Stewart won at Phoenix as a rookie in 1999, one of three late season wins Stewart had that year, but has gone winless there ever since. He does have 3 second-place finishes over his career since, with the last coming in this race last season. His quality finish in this race last season gave validation to the racing world that his new team was going to be able to contend with the rest of NASCAR’s best on a regular occurrence. Look for another quality finish this week.

The Busch Brothers are definite wild cards this week. You know Kurt is going to run well after having three straight terrific runs there with finishes no worse than sixth, but Kyle is the tough one to gauge. Sooner or later Kyle is going to win a race, but he hasn’t had the look of a winner in any practice session prior to each race. He’s almost looked like the weak link among the Joe Gibbs cars as Hamlin and Joey Logano have each tasted some kind of success this year.

Based on Kyle’s history, Phoenix is a place he should run well at just because of how well he’s run at New Hampshire and Richmond over his career, yet his best career finish is seventh.

In Las Vegas, the SuperBook at the Las Vegas Hilton has been daring folks to bet on Kyle Busch all season after practices with his odds reaching above 25 to 1, odds we never thought we would have seen for Kyle on any track just a mere few months ago. But that’s how far he has slipped and it’s hard to say when he’ll rebound, but as the odds get higher, he’s going to force some bets out of people and they may just get lucky as Kyle can steal any race.

Johnson’s going to be tough to topple again this week and wouldn’t recommend betting against him in driver match-ups either no matter how high the plus-money is because he’ll probably finish in the top-3. I think the best value may be going with Childress cars this week in match-ups and odds to win.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #31 Jeff Burton (12/1)
2) #5 Mark Martin (10/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)

 
Posted : April 6, 2010 4:31 pm
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Driver Handicaps: Phoenix
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to action at Phoenix International Raceway for Saturday's Subway Fresh Fit 600. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 375-lap event.

Who's HOT at Phoenix
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (4), laps led (631) and average finish (2.0) with the new car (COT).
• Denny Hamlin, who will have Casey Mears on standby, has a 6.0 average finish in his last six starts.
• Defending event winner Mark Martin leads all drivers with 11 top fives and 833 laps led.
• Jeff Burton has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts.
• Kurt Busch has a 3.7 average finish in his last three starts.
• 2007 event winner Jeff Gordon has finished in the top 10 in 16 of his 22 starts.
• Carl Edwards has an 8.5 average finish in his last four starts.

Keep an Eye on at Phoenix
• Tony Stewart finished second in this event last year and has led 151 laps with the new car.
• Greg Biffle has an 8.2 average finish in his last five starts at Phoenix.
• Although they both posted respective average finishes of 27.0 and 33.0 last year at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhradt Jr. each have two wins at Phoenix.
• Martin Truex Jr. (will make PIR debut with Michael Waltrip Racing) and David Reutimann finished in the top 10 in both races at Phoenix last season.
• Kyle Busch has an 11.8 average finish in four starts with Joe Gibbs Racing at Phoenix.
• Clint Bowyer has finished 12th or better in four of his last five starts, including a runner-up finish in this event in 2008.

COT Performers
Jimmie Johnson has had the field covered in the six races with the new car at Phoenix International Raceway. Johnson leads all drivers in wins (4), average finish (2.0), top fives (6) and laps led (631). Denny Hamlin, who will have Casey Mears on standby if he has problems with his knee, is Johnson's closest competition so far with the COT at PIR, posting an average finish of 6.0 and five top 10s. Defending event winner Mark Martin has raced in five events with an average finish of 7.2 and 225 laps led. Besides Johnson and Martin, only three other drivers have led more than 100 laps with the COT: Kurt Busch (192), Tony Stewart (151) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (150). Jeff Gordon, who won the first race at the track with the COT, has led 53 laps and finished in the top 10 three times.

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Phoenix Int'l Raceway unless noted)

1. Jimmie Johnson: Winner of four of the last five races; 5.1 average finish leads all drivers; Finished fourth in this event last year; Has combined to lead 631 laps in last five races; Last finish outside the top seven was 15th in this event in 2005; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 540) that led 238 laps en route to the win last fall at Phoenix.

2. Greg Biffle: Has an 8.2 average finish in last five starts; Finished fifth in this event last year for third top five in 12 starts; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 634) in the Subway Fresh Fit 600.

3. Matt Kenseth: Winner of the 2002 race; 17.7 average finish in six starts with the new car; Last of six top 10s (third) came in the 2007 fall race when he led 93 laps; Finished 27th in this event last year.

4. Kevin Harvick: Won both Cup races in 2006; Has posted a 16.0 average finish in the six races at the track with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 304) in the Subway Fresh Fit 600.

5. Jeff Burton: Coming off sixth top five in 21 starts with a second-place finish last fall; Third-best average finish (9.0) among drivers that have raced in all six events with the new car; Won the 2000 and 2001 events with Roush Racing; Last fall's finish was seventh top 10 in 11 starts with Richard Childress Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 280) that ran at Phoenix last November.

6. Kurt Busch: Best track on the circuit based on 12.0 average finish; 3.7 average finish in last three starts; Second-best driver rating in last 10 races; Won the 2005 race with Roush Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 701) that finished eighth at Auto Club Speedway last October in its debut. This car was tested at Gresham Motorsports Park last month.

7. Jeff Gordon: Coming off 16th top 10 (ninth) in 22 starts; Won the 2007 spring race from the pole; Three-time pole winner; 16.5 average finish in the six races with the new car.

8. Tony Stewart: Finished second in this event last year in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing; 25th-place finish last fall raised his average finish to 11.0 in 16 starts; Posted one win and six top fives in previous 14 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Bringing chassis No. 14-535; Car brought team a second-place finish in this event last year.

9. Clint Bowyer: Coming off third top 10 (seventh) in nine starts; 13.3 average finish in the six starts with the new car; Finished 26th in this event last year; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 265) that was rebuilt during the offseason after finishing sixth (Atlanta) and 36th (Charlotte) last season.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 19.8 average finish in four starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Has led a combined 150 laps with the team in the spring races; Won the events in 2003 and 2004 with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 586) in the Subway Fresh Fit 600.

11. Paul Menard: 24.3 average finish in six starts; Finished 23rd in this event last year in first track start driving a Ford; Will pilot a 2009 chassis (No. 574) in the Subway Fresh Fit 600. This car has yet to make a start in 2010.

12. Brian Vickers: 29.0 average finish in five starts with Team Red Bull; Best finish (19th) with the team came in this event last year; Only top 10 came in the 2005 spring race, in eighth, when he was driving for Hendrick Motorsports.

13. Joey Logano: Finished 21st in both events in 2009; Taking brand new chassis No. 269 to Phoenix.

14. Carl Edwards: 14.5 average finish in the six races with the new car; Has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts; Led 87 laps in the 2007 fall race from the pole before an engine failure; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 647) that finished 16th last fall at Phoenix.

15. Denny Hamlin: Second-best average finish (6.0) among drivers that have raced in all six events with the new car; Has finished sixth or better in last four starts; Will have Casey Mears on standby because of his knee surgery last week; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 263) that finished third at Phoenix last fall.

16. Kyle Busch: 11.8 average finish in four starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Won this event in 2005 driving for Hendrick Motorsports; Has yet to lead a lap in last seven starts.

17. Mark Martin: Won this race from the pole last year in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Finished fourth in the fall; 8.8 average finish in 25 starts; Also won the 1993 race with Roush Racing; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 588) in the Subway Fresh Fit 600.

18. Martin Truex Jr.: 15.0 average finish in the six races with the new car; Coming off consecutive top 10s; Scored only top five (fifth) last year in the fall race from the pole; Will make first track start in a Toyota.

19. Jamie McMurray: Only top 10 (third) in 13 starts came in the 2008 fall race; Will make first track start in a Chevrolet with Earnhardt-Ganassi; This is the same team that finished in the top 10 in both races in 2009 with driver Martin Truex Jr.; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 1008) in the Subway Fresh Fit 600.

20. Kasey Kahne: One top five and three top 10s in 11 starts; 19.2 average finish; Celebrating 30th birthday on race day.

21. Scott Speed: Track debut in 2008 ended in bad accident and 40th-place finish; Average finish of 35.7 in three starts.

22. Ryan Newman: Three top-five finishes in 15 starts; Best finish was runner-up spot in 2004; Recorded 18.0 average finish with SHR in 2009; Leads all drivers in poles (4); Piloting chassis No. 39-536, which was raced at both Phoenix and Richmond races in 2009; Posted two top-10 finishes at Richmond with the car.

23. Elliott Sadler: Only top 10 in 16 starts was in a Ford for Yates Racing in 2002 fall event; 26.6 average finish; Making 400th Cup start; Driving brand new chassis No. 609.

24. David Reutimann: Posted two top-10 finishes in 2009; Track best eighth place in this event last year; 18.6 average finish in five starts.

25. Juan Pablo Montoya: Finished eighth last fall for best finish in six starts; 19.2 average finish; Driving chassis No. 909; Same chassis he used in last fall's event.

26. AJ Allmendinger: Finished 13th in a Ford in last fall's race; 21.3 average finish in three starts; Bringing chassis No. 277 for second race this season; Finished 25th at ACS in February with this car.

27. Brad Keselowski: One start in fall of 2009 resulted in 37th-place finish; Bringing brand new chassis PRS-716.

28. David Ragan: One top-10 finish in six starts came in fall of 2008; Piloting chassis RK-613; Car was driven to 23rd-place finish in fall 2009 race.

29. Marcos Ambrose: 14.3 average finish with three top-20 finishes; Best finish of 11th came in fall 2009.

30. Sam Hornish Jr.: Finished ninth in this event last year for first Cup Series top-10 finish; 21.8 average finish in five starts.

 
Posted : April 8, 2010 12:03 pm
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Subway Fresh Fit 600: NASCAR Betting Preview
By Greg Engle

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Phoenix for Saturday's Subway Fresh Fit 600. This go around, the race has been lengthened and the new spoilers will have a chance to really have an effect of the way the cars race. However, there will still be some old favorites who will shine this weekend.

Favorites

Greg Biffle (+1800)

Biffle has been quietly putting together a decent season despite no wins to date. He finished a respectable 10th in Martinsville two weeks ago and moved into second in the standings only 14 markers behind the leader. Biffle has three Top 5s and four Top 10s here and, while he hasn't won, he's been knocking at the door showing that he's competitive each and every week. Saturday he may very well unlock that door.

Mark Martin (+700)

The last three races for Martin haven't exactly been memorable ones, but Phoenix is the site of his emotional comeback win in this race last year. He has another win here along with 11 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s and one pole. After his miserable outings to start the year, Martin could stage another comeback win this week.

Jimmie Johnson (+400)

Yet another week and yet another race where Johnson has to be the favorite. He's won four of the last five races at Phoenix and has eight Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and one pole. Of course, he was the favorite last week at Martinsville and finished 10th - a rare off weekend for the four-time champ. That's the key, Johnson only has rare weekends where the team is off and he tends to bounce back stronger the next race. Look for him to lead the way this Saturday.

Others to watch

Kevin Harvick (+1000)

Harvick is frustrated. He won the Truck Series event at Martinsville, the Nationwide Series race at Nashville the following week, but can't win a Sprint Cup race. He suffered mechanical problems after starting from the pole in Martinsville. Now, he returns to Phoenix where he has two wins, three Top 5s and six Top 10s. Harvick could break his drought this Saturday.

Tony Stewart (+1200)

Stewart has definitely been off the radar the last few races, but, at Phoenix, he has one win, seven Top 5s and nine Top 10s. Those totals don't include the fact that Stewart is the only driver in the field who has won in every type of car raced at Phoenix including USAC and IRL machines. His experience could pay off big.

Kurt Busch (+800)

Busch has many memories at Phoenix. Most of them unpleasant. But with one win, four Top 5s and eight Top 10s, he will work hard to make some pleasant memories and rain on someone's parade.

Head to head

Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards

Busch has struggled so far this season but heads to Phoenix with a record of one victory, a Top 5, six Top 10s and a pole looking for a breakthrough. Edwards has never won here, but has four Top 5s, seven Top 10s and a pole as well. Busch may have the motivation to win, but so far this year Edwards seems one step ahead. Advantage Edwards.

Jeff Gordon vs. Matt Kenseth

Kenseth and Gordon tangled on the final lap at Martinsville while battling for the win, both were denied the front spot in the end. There will be no love lost between the two Saturday. Gordon has a win, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and three poles. Kenseth has one win, five Top 5s, and six Top 10s. Hell hath no fury like a scorned Jeff Gordon though, so look for the four time champ to come out ahead.

Jeff Burton vs. Denny Hamlin

Burton hasn't exactly set the world on fire lately but is always a threat to break through at any time. Hamlin is the series most recent winner. Burton has two wins, six Top 5s, 12 Top 10s here, while Hamlin has five Top 5s, six Top 10s and one pole. Hamlin, however, is coming off knee surgery and although reports say he will be fine Saturday, if the mended knee gives him trouble he could be forced out of the car or lose focus. If he can put his pain behind him though there's no reason Hamlin won't continue his success and finish very well and ahead of Burton.

 
Posted : April 9, 2010 10:27 pm
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Changing Conditions at Phoenix Track Will Play a Big Role Saturday Night
By Micah Roberts

Saturday night’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Phoenix is going to be a tale of three races in one and which driver adapts to all three the best as the race goes on. The race starts in the bright Arizona sunlight at 4:45 p.m. (PDT), where the anticipated temperature will be about 85 degrees. The drivers will race for a few hours under those conditions until twilight hits at about 6:30 p.m., and then by 7 it will be completely dark with temperatures much cooler than when it started.

Each of those stages will be critical for every team involved because the surface and temperature of the track will change drastically. The crews for each team will have to slowly make the transition from day to night racing a little bit at each pit stop with the combined goal of having the optimum setup for the final stages of racing at night and finishing strong.

Phoenix International Raceway changed the length of its race from 500 kilometers to 600 because of the earlier NASCAR-mandated start time, which would have had the race ending just as twilight hit. The difference equates to about 63 laps, but also ensures that the spring Phoenix race remains unique because of the day/night changes.

Because the race is being run on a Saturday, the practice and qualifying schedule was compacted into one Friday session, which changes a normal pattern set by the crews as well as everyone else who use the practice speeds as a barometer in trying to figure out who will do well. On a normal weekend, we have a practice session Friday, which is used mostly with qualifying trim, then the teams qualify, take a break, and practice for real on Saturday.

The two sessions Saturday are critical for handicappers, bookmakers and fantasy players to get the best read on who the drivers to beat will be. This week in Phoenix, we have a jumbled mess because everyone was trying many different things to prepare for the different expected conditions on Saturday.

Following Friday’s qualifying session, the teams will not get any other practice time and will have to do their final tinkering as the race goes on.

More so than with other races to determine who might win, we have to look at recent past history of a driver’s performance at not only Phoenix, but Richmond and New Hampshire as well. While none of those three tracks are similar on paper, they all have relatively flat banking and are a mile or less in distance. Crew chiefs who have had success on one of the three tracks often will bring the same chassis to the other two because the setup requirements are similar.

The practices are still important and critical to the calculations, but because it was a much different kind of practice this week, it doesn’t hold as true as with other tracks. So this week, we’ll place a lot of emphasis on what chassis certain drivers have brought for the race, mixed in with some notes about practice.

Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last five races at Phoenix and it just so happens he brought the same car he won with in the last Phoenix race. He wasn’t spectacular in practice and only ran a few laps with qualifying trim on in the final session Friday, but chances are that this car is set up to run its best when the lights come on with cooler temperatures. Knowing this, it’s likely crew chief Chad Knaus made only minor adjustments for the early stages of the race because you can’t win a race at the beginning.

Denny Hamlin is an interesting candidate to win because he’s on the injured list. Following his Martinsville win two weeks ago, Hamlin had surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. He has Casey Mears on standby just in case he can’t go the distance because of the pain.

Should Hamlin hand over the steering wheel to Mears during a pit stop, chances are that they’ll go a lap down, which makes Hamlin a risky play this week. However, he had a great practice run Friday and brought the same car that finished third at Phoenix last fall.

All indications show that it will be tough to get Hamlin to get out of the car while the race is going, especially if he’s having a good run. He’s a competitor, the team finally ran well with their win at Martinsville, and he’ll want to keep the momentum going as much as he can.

Tony Stewart hasn’t been talked about too much this season, but has managed to quietly put himself eighth in points. He brought his second-place Phoenix chassis from this race last year which, coupled with a great practice on Friday, makes him a solid contender to get his first Phoenix win since his rookie year of 1999.

Along the same lines as Stewart is his teammate Ryan Newman who brought his same chassis that ran at both Phoenix and Richmond races last season. He finished in the top-10 of both Richmond races. During the final stages of practice, Newman reeled off the third-fastest lap while in qualifying trim.

Jeff Burton is a two-time winner at Phoenix, along with multiple wins combined at New Hampshire and Richmond. The team struggled early in practice but gathered itself nicely toward the end Friday with good speeds in qualifying trim. The best thing about Burton this week is that he brought the same car that finished second in Phoenix last November.

Mark Martin should be considered a candidate just because he won this race last season. He practiced well Friday, but the car he’s using is new which always leaves some uncertainty to its capabilities because it has no track record. Jimmie Johnson has proven this year that a new car can win a race, but Johnson is in an entirely different class.

Greg Biffle is a nice candidate to run well this week just because he runs well every week. He’s the only driver this season to have finished the first six races within the top 10. Biffle had a strong practice with the fourth-fastest single lap and has done well at Phoenix in all series in the past. His most recent success was a fifth-place finish in this race last year.

Drivers that could surprise this week include Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray and Dale Earnhardt Jr. McMurray had a great first practice but couldn’t get any speed with qualifying trim on. Joey Logano was smooth for the entire day Friday, and Earnhardt Jr, a two-time Phoenix winner, had a good first practice.

Don’t put too much into start position for this race, even though it has proved very critical the last four races. Only 10 of the 27 Phoenix races have been won from a top-five starting position with only four more getting wins while starting among the top 10. However, the last four races have been won from a top-five starting position. Based on this week's lineup, it doesn’t appear anyone of the top nine starters can win.

Driver Quotes

Kevin Harvick on the challenge of the changing conditions:
“It’s going to be a challenge because a lot of it depends on the type of weather that we have. If it’s really hot during the day, then it usually cools off quite a bit at night. As soon as the sun goes behind the suites in Turns 1 and 2, the temperature really drops and the track gains quite a bit of grip. The lap times generally pick up a few tenths of a lap.”

Jeff Burton on how he can turn last year's runner-up Phoenix finish into a win:
“Phoenix has been a really good racetrack for me. I felt that if we had qualified better and been up front earlier, we would have been hard to beat in that race. We were really fast and got by a lot of cars early but never had good track position until later in the race. It’s been a while since I’ve won there and we’re going back to finish where we left off in the fall. The key for us to do that is to go back better than we were and respond better to the spoiler than everybody else.”

Tony Stewart on what makes the Phoenix track so slick:
“It is just Phoenix. But that is what makes it fun, too; it makes us work as drivers. You have got to not overdrive your car. It is very sensitive to heat and that makes us as drivers have to work harder.”

Jeff Gordon on how his Friday Phoenix practice and qualifying sessions went:
"Under the conditions, I am pretty happy our team had a very impressive day. We started the day really far off, so we tried a few new things and experimented since we’re early in the season. It’s hard to do that when we have all our practices in just one day. I’m really proud of my guys; they didn’t give up and we made big gains certainly for qualifying as well. We’ll see what happens tomorrow night in the race."

 
Posted : April 10, 2010 9:58 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Practice Notes - Phoenix
By Micah Roberts

Rating Driver - Odds (Practice 1, Practice 2, Qualifying)

1. Jimmie Johnson - 4/1 (8th, 6th, 16th)

Four wins in last five Phoenix starts and using same chassis that won last time out at Phoenix. Best team to adapt to day-night change during the race.

2. Denny Hamlin - 15/1 (1st, 18th, 26th)

Looks like best car on the track; same one finished third in Phoenix last fall. Slim chance he may use Casey Mears as a backup driver due to recent knee surgery.

3. Tony Stewart - 12/1 (10th, 10th, 11th)

The most consistent in average speeds throughout Friday practices. Using same chassis that finished second at Phoenix last spring.

4. Jeff Burton - 12/1 (13th, 5th, 15th)

Two-time Phoenix winner; brought same chassis that finished second at Phoenix last fall.

5. Matt Kenseth - 15/1 (7th, 31st, 27th)

Phoenix winner in 2002; Had a great early practice session before qualifying trim came on.

6. Clint Bowyer - 15/1 (6th, 13th, 25th)

Phoenix best of second place in 2008 spring race, using rebuilt chassis that finished sixth in Atlanta last season.

7. Kyle Busch - 10/1 (12th, 8th, 17th)

Won at Phoenix as rookie in 2005, no top-five finishes there since. Had one of his best practices of the 2010 season coming into a race.

8. Mark Martin - 7/1 (9th, 11th, 23rd)

Two-time Phoenix winner, won this race last season and finished fourth in the fall. Brand new chassis this week.

 
Posted : April 10, 2010 11:40 am
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