Subway Fresh Fit 500 Preview
February 22, 2011
By Micah Roberts
Everything you saw last week in the Daytona 500, throw it away and don’t let anything you witnessed persuade you into betting the likes of Trevor Bayne, David Gilliland, Bobby Labonte, all of whom had excellent Top 5 finishes. File those finishes in the back of your mind until they roll up to Talladega in April.
This week, there will be no upsets, no gimmicks and no restrictor plates. It’s all about the car and driver at Phoenix International Raceway. If looking for a 100/1 payout again with the likes of Bayne, you’ll have to wait until Talladega. But if you’re looking to use your handicapping skills to the fullest, Phoenix is your race.
This is the true beginning of the season where the drivers who are expected to compete for the Championship will all fare well.
The best car usually wins at Phoenix. After looking at all the practice data, you can key in on about three of four drivers and have a legitimate shot. This week also presents a great shot at winning some driver vs. driver matchups where all the information holds true unlike what we saw at Daytona.
Usually, we don’t see Phoenix until April, but a change in this year’s schedule eliminated California’s, bringing us great 1-mile track action in the desert. We saw the drivers compete at Phoenix in the second to last race of the 2010 season with Carl Edwards dominating the speed charts coming in and then winning the race. In the April race, Ryan Newman won the green-white-checker finish. Newman would finish second the Edwards in the fall as well.
We can use a lot of what happened last year and expect similar instances to occur this week beginning with Edwards. He had gone 70 races without winning a race, winless the entire 2009 season, before capturing that Phoenix win. Edwards followed that up with a season ending win at Homestead and finished runner-up last week at Daytona. There is no hotter driver than Edwards right now coming into Phoenix.
The Phoenix win last season was the first of his career on the track, but he accumulated four other Top 5’s over his career on the track. Only five other drivers have a better average finish at Phoenix than Edwards over his career since he started in 2004.
Jimmie Johnson is a four-time winner at Phoenix and hasn’t finished outside the Top 5 in a race there since the spring of 2006, and that was a very solid seventh-place finish.
Denny Hamlin led the most laps in the fall race last year and finished 12th, a race that probably costs him the 2010 season title. In 11 starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has six finishes within the top-6 and has an average finish of 11.6, good enough for fourth best among active drivers.
Mark Martin won this race is 1993, and then again in 2009, and has maintained his excellence throughout over the years with only Johnson having a better average finish during his career on the track. Since winning in 2009, Martin has two fourth-place finishes and an eighth.
Jeff Gordon had gone his whole career without winning at Phoenix until 2007, but had always excelled on the track with quality finishes. In this race last year that Newman won, Gordon had the thing all sewed up, but got beat off the line in the overtime restart and had to settle for a runner-up finish.
Jeff Burton won back-to-back Phoenix races in 200 and 2001 and has stayed consistent throughout since despite not winning again. Nothing bad seems to happen to Burton and Phoenix which makes him a great play in matchups. He always manages to get a top-10 finish.
As press releases start coming in, we’ll get to see what chassis some of these teams are bringing. It will be interesting to see what teams decide to do for this race because set-up is so pivotal. Will we see the successful teams from last year bring their same cars or will thy all be brand new? We saw last week Dale Earnhardt Jr. revert to a backup-car at Daytona that was once run by Jeff Gordon. During the garage swap between Earnhardt Jr. and Gordon, does Junior get the benefit of having Gordon’s old Phoenix cars?
Be sure to check out my BLOG later in the week and I’ll have a lot of those answers before the sportsbooks do. It could be valuable information that helps lead to good odds to win plays before they even practice.
On Saturday, I’ll also have my driver ratings following all practices and qualifying. Most of the good information will be found on Friday as there will be the only two practices run with just qualifying on Saturday.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
5) #5 Mark Martin (25/1)
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Odds & Ends - Phoenix
Phoenix International Raceway Data
Race: 2 of 36 (2-27-11)
Track Size: 1 mile
# Banking/1 and 2: 11 degrees
# Banking/3 and 4: 9 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 3 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees
# Frontstretch: 1,179 feet
# Backstretch: 1,551 feet
Driver Rating at Phoenix
Jimmie Johnson 122.6
Carl Edwards 101.7
Mark Martin 100.8
Jeff Gordon 99.8
Kurt Busch 99.3
Denny Hamlin 98.6
Kyle Busch 96.3
Greg Biffle 96.2
Tony Stewart 96.2
Kevin Harvick 95.2
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-10 races (12 total) at Phoenix.
Qualifying/Race Data
2010 pole winner: AJ Allmendinger (134.675 mph, 26.731 seconds)
2010 race winner: Ryan Newman (99.372 mph, 4-10-10)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (135.854 mph, 26.499 seconds, 11-5-04)
Track race record: Tony Stewart (118.132 mph, 11-7-99)
Driver Highlights - Phoenix
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Four top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 14.6
# Average Running Position of 14.3, 11th-best
# Driver Rating of 96.2, eighth-best
# 270 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# 436 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.036 mph, seventh-fastest
# 2,402 Laps in the Top 15 (63.0%), 10th-most
# 242 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 10th-most
Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
# Two wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 11.7
# Average Running Position of 14.9, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 86.3, 13th-best
# Series-high 590 Green Flag Passes
# 2,371 Laps in the Top 15 (62.2%), 11th-most
# 305 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)
# One win, four top fives, nine top 10s
# Average finish of 13.3
# Average Running Position of 10.4, third-best
# Driver Rating of 99.3, fifth-best
# 232 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 122.957 mph, 11th-fastest
# 2,621 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), eighth-most
# 225 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
# One win, one top five, seven top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 13.8
# Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 96.3, seventh-best
# 137 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 477 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 122.968 mph, 10th-fastest
# 3,246 Laps in the Top 15 (85.2%), second-most
# Series-high 345 Quality Passes
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 11.8
# Average Running Position of 12.5, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 101.7, second-best
# 234 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.260 mph, second-fastest
# 2,777 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), fifth-most
# 276 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)
# One win, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 10.4
# Average Running Position of 10.1, second-best
# Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
# 99 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.042 mph, sixth-fastest
# 3,144 Laps in the Top 15 (82.5%), third-most
# 242 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
# Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.6
# Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
# 191 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.114 mph, third-fastest
# 2,503 Laps in the Top 15 (71.5%), ninth-most
# 250 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)
# Two wins, three top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 14.4
# Average Running Position of 11.9, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 95.2, 10th-best
# 147 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# 445 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 122.990 mph, ninth-fastest
# 2,714 Laps in the Top 15 (71.2%), sixth-most
# 243 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
# Four wins, 10 top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 4.9
# Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
# Series-best Driver Rating of 122.6
# Series-high 415 Fastest Laps Run
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 123.548 mph
# Series-high 3,661 Laps in the Top 15 (96.1%)
# 310 Quality Passes, third-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
# Two wins, 12 top fives, 19 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 8.6
# Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 100.8, third-best
# 241 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.088 mph, fourth-fastest
# 2,341 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9%), 12th-most
Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
# One win, five top fives, five top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 20.2
# Average Running Position of 15.0, 13th-best
# Driver Rating of 88.0, 12th-best
# 446 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
# 2,691 Laps in the Top 15 (70.6%), seventh-most
# 324 Quality Passes, second-most
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet)
# One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
# Average finish of 12.0
# Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 96.2, ninth-best
# 128 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 500 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.063 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,836 Laps in the Top 15 (74.4%), fourth-most
# 295 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
# One top five, four top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 15.6
# Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 89.0, 11th-best
# 114 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 122.998 mph, eighth-fastest
# 2,163 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), 13th-most
# 223 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Driver Handicaps: Phoenix
By: Jeff Wackerlin
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Phoenix International Raceway for Sunday's Sunday Fresh Fit 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 312-lap event.
Who's HOT at Phoenix
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (4), laps led (744) and average finish (2.5) in the eight races with the COT.
• Mark Martin, winner of this event in 2009, has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts.
• Denny Hamlin has finished sixth or better in six of the last nine races.
• Jeff Gordon, the 2007 spring winner, has finished in the top 10 in 17 of his 24 starts.
• Ryan Newman, the defending race winner, finished in the top five in both races in 2010.
• Carl Edwards led 93 laps en route to the win last fall.
• Kurt Busch has posted four top 10s and led 212 laps in four of the last five races.
Keep an Eye on at Phoenix
• Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle have average finishes of 10.4 and 10.5, respectively, in the eight races with the COT at Phoenix.
• Jamie McMurray will race the same car that he posted a top 10 with at PIR last fall.
• Juan Pablo Montoya led 104 laps and finished fifth in this event last year at Phoenix.
• Clint Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at Phoenix.
• Tony Stewart finished second in this event in 2009 and has a 16.8 average finish in four Phoenix starts with Stewart-Haas.
• AJ Allmendinger won the pole and finished 15th last April at Phoenix.
• Jeff Burton has the fifth best average finish (11.7) in the last 10 races at Phoenix.
• Kevin Harvick equaled his best finish (sixth) last fall since sweeping both races in 2006.
• Matt Kenseth finished in the top 10 in both Phoenix races last season.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has two top 10s and 150 laps led in the eight races with the COT.
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Phoenix unless noted)
1. Carl Edwards: Coming off first win in 13 starts after leading 93 laps; Sixth-best average finish (11.9) in the eight races with the COT; 180 total laps led have all come with the COT; Led 87 laps in the 2007 fall race from the pole before an engine failure; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 726) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
2. David Gilliland: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in nine starts; 35.0 average finish in two starts with Front Row Motorsports; Finished 38th last November due to brake issues.
3. Bobby Labonte: 18.2 average finish in 24 starts; Last top 10 (eighth) came in 2007 spring race with Petty Enterprises; Will make first track start with JTG-Daugherty Racing.
4. Kurt Busch: Coming off ninth top 10 in 16 starts; His ninth-place finish in November was his fifth top 10 in 10 starts with Penske Racing; Ninth-best average finish (13.5) in the eight races with the COT; Has combined to lead 212 laps in the last five races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 738) that finished 30th at Charlotte last fall; This car has been completely rebuilt since then.
5. Juan Pablo Montoya: Led 104 laps last April en route to a fifth-place finish; Finish was second consecutive top 10; Finished 16th last November to give him an average finish of 17.0 in eight starts; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 1109) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
6. Regan Smith: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in five starts; Equaled best finish, of 23rd, last fall; Has yet to lead a lap; 25.6 average finish in three starts with Furniture Row Racing.
7. Kyle Busch: 11.3 average finish in six starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Won the 2005 fall race with Hendrick Motorsports; Led 113 laps en route to an eighth-place finish last spring; Fourth-best average finish (10.4) in the eight races with the COT; Will race chassis No. 280 for the third time; This chassis most recently finished 35th at Auto Club after engine problems took him out of the race.
8. Paul Menard: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in eight starts; Best finish (21st) came in a Chevrolet with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. in the 2008 spring race; Will make first track start with Richard Childress Racing; Will pilot a new car (chassis No. 342) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
9. Mark Martin: 6.9 average finish in seven starts with the COT; Third in laps led (225) with the COT; Won the 2009 spring race from the pole in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Finished eighth last November for fourth consecutive top 10.
10. AJ Allmendinger: Won the pole and finished 15th last April; Finish was second consecutive top 15 driving a Ford; Started second and finished 18th last November to give him an overall average of 19.4 in five starts.
11. Bill Elliott: Will make first track start with Phoenix Racing; Last of four top 10s came in 1993.
12. Tony Stewart: 16.8 average finish in four starts with Stewart-Haas; Best finish with the team came in the 2009 spring race in third; 17th-place finish last November raised his average finish to 12.0 in 18 starts; Posted one win and six top fives in previous 14 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 587) that he most recently finished 24th with at Martinsville.
13. David Ragan: Only top 10 (10th) in eight starts came in the 2008 fall race; Has yet to lead a lap; Will pilot a new car (chassis No. 737) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
14. Terry Labonte: Will not race in this weekend's Subway Fresh Fit 500.
15. Robby Gordon: 27.9 average finish in 17 starts; Best finish in 10 starts with Robby Gordon Motorsports came in the spring last year in 14th.
16. Clint Bowyer: Scored fourth top 10 (ninth) in 11 starts last year in this event; 13.8 average finish in the eight races with the COT; Will pilot a new chassis (No. 340) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
17. Jamie McMurray: Coming off second top 10 in 15 starts; 17.0 average finish in two starts with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing; 16.2 average finish in the eight races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1008) that he finished 10th with at PIR last fall.
18. Martin Truex Jr.: 16.0 average finish in two starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Last of four top 10s came in the 2009 fall race when he won the pole and finished fifth with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing; The 2007 fall race was the only time he's led laps (72).
19. Denny Hamlin: Third-best driver average (9.8) in the eight races with the COT; 12th-place finish last fall put his finishing average to 11.6 in 11 overall starts; Second in laps led with 260; Finished 30th last spring 10 days after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee; Finish ended streak of four consecutive top 10s.
20. Ryan Newman: Winner of last year's spring race; Finished second last fall to give him an average finish of 20.2 in 17 starts; 9.8 average finish in four starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Will return in the same car that he ran in both Phoenix races last year.
Notable Drivers Outside the Top 20
Joey Logano: Coming off best finish in four starts in third; Finish was second consecutive top 10; 13.8 overall average finish and no laps led.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 17.5 average finish in six starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Has led a combined 150 laps with the team in 2008 and 2009 spring races; Won the events in 2003 and 2004 with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.
Kasey Kahne: Finished 30th last fall in first track start with Team Red Bull; Last of three top 10s came in the 2006 fall race with Evernham Motorsports; Has yet to lead a lap in 13 starts.
Jimmie Johnson: Winner of four of the last seven races; 4.9 average finish leads all drivers; Finished fifth last fall for 11th consecutive top 10; Leads all drivers with a 2.5 average finish and 744 laps led in the eight races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 590) that he last finished third with at Richmond.
Jeff Gordon: Finished second and 11th, respectively, in 2010; 17 top 10s in 24 starts; 14.0 average finish and 56 laps led in the eight starts with the COT; Won the 2007 spring race from the pole.
Brad Keselowski: 31.7 average finish in three starts; Best finish, and only inside top 30, came in this event last year in 16th.
David Reutimann: Only top 10s came in the 2009 season; 26th-place finish last fall raised his finishing average to 19.9 in seven starts.
Brian Vickers: Finished 37th in this event last year; 30.3 average finish in six starts with Team Red Bull; Only top 10 (fifth) came with Hendrick Motorsports in 2005.
Matt Kenseth: Finished in the top 10 in both races in 2010; 14.9 average finish in the eight races with the COT; Winner of the 2002 race; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 725) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
Greg Biffle: 10.5 average finish in the eight races with the COT; Coming off fourth top five (fourth) in 14 starts; Will pilot a new car (chassis No. 727) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
Jeff Burton: 11.0 average finish in 13 starts with Richard Childress Racing; Finished 25th in this event last year after a penalty on pit road; Both finishes in 2010 were first outside the top 15 with RCR; Won the 2000 and 2001 events with Roush Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 323) that he finished 18th with at Kansas last fall.
Marcos Ambrose: 15.2 average finish in five starts; Will make first track start with Richard Petty Motorsports.
Kevin Harvick: Won both Cup races in 2006; 14.4 average finish and 54 laps led in the eight races with the COT; Best finish since season sweep came in the 2007 and 2010 fall race in sixth; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 332) in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
Trevor Bayne: Will make first track start in the Sprint Cup Series; 20.0 average finish in three Nationwide starts.
Subway Fresh Fit 500: NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle
Now the season can begin. After the pageantry and, according to some, the hype of the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series begins the weekly grind that will ultimately crown a champion.
For the first time since the Sprint Cup series began racing there in 1988, Phoenix International Raceway becomes NASCAR’s second stop on the schedule.
Moving the race from its former date in April to February may not seem like a big deal but this is the desert and the temperatures will be more akin to the last visit in November. When the Series last raced here in November, Carl Edwards scored his first Sprint Cup victory at Phoenix. It was the first of two wins for Edwards, as he raced to victory in the 2010 season-ending race at Homestead-Miami.
Carl Edwards took a ton of momentum into this season.
The Phoenix victory also marked the end of a winless streak for Edwards and gave him momentum heading into this season. Edwards finished second in the 2011 Daytona 500, left with the points lead and there’s no reason he won’t continue his momentum this week.
“We are taking a brand new car that should be even better than the car we won with there last year,” Edwards’ crew chief Bob Osborne said this week. “It was a relief to come out of Daytona with a good finish and the points lead. It's nice when you don't start the season in a points deficit and spend the first several races trying to fight your way back into the Top 10."
Don’t count out the driver who has won five of the last seven races here though. Five-time and reigning Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson may not be off to a stellar start to his 2011 season after finishing 27th at Daytona, but he’ll be looking for redemption this week. With the best average finish and the most wins among active drivers, Johnson may just get that redemption Sunday.
For the spoiler, look no farther than the defending winner of this event. Ryan Newman scored his first win since joining Stewart-Haas Racing last spring and finished second here in the November race.
The first primetime matchup of the year will be between Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. Both have wins here and both will be out to prove that the strength of RCR seen at Daytona wasn’t a fluke. Harvick, however, will get the nod. His wins came in the form of a season sweep in 2006. Burton’s victories came in fall races in 2000 and 2001.
Kurt and Kyle Busch are both hoping for better outings then they had in the season opener. Like Harvick and Burton, both have wins here, ironically they both won a single race apiece in 2005. Older brother Kurt has a slightly better average finish, 13.3 as opposed to 13.8 for Kyle, so look for Kurt to come out ahead.
Still not sure? Go all in on the winner of the pole position. There’s an interesting trend over the last four years. The winner of the pole in four of the last eight races has gone onto victory. Jeff Gordon came through in the spring of 2007, Jimmie Johnson in the fall of 2008, Mark Martin in the spring and Carl Edwards last fall. With history giving the nod to the spring pole winner, whoever wins the starting spot Saturday has a good shot at victory Sunday.
NASCAR betting picks
Carl Edwards +700
Jimmie Johnson +500
Ryan Newman +2500
Phoenix Practice Notes
By Micah Roberts
Even though Daytona began the season last week, it could be argued that this weeks race at Phoenix is the real beginning to the season. Restrictor-plate racing only has four races a year and in those races, anything can, and usually does happen. The other races have more to do about the set-up of the car, engine, individual driver and who can be consistent in those races over that stretch. The points count the same for all races, but there’s just more of these type of races to make it a major priority for most teams. You can have a poor race at Daytona and not be concerned, but to run poorly at Phoenix, and then Las Vegas next week, that will sound the alarms.
For some of the drivers, they just simply like being able to race on their own for the first time.
“That style of racing (Daytona) we only have four times a year," said Carl Edwards, winner of the last Phoenix race. "The other 32 times they are races like this, so this really is the style of track that you need to be good at and this is the start of the season that you can control more. That race on Sunday, that’s a tough one. That’s a tough one to be in control of your own destiny and your own fate.”
Tony Stewart is also ready to control his own destiny heading into Sunday's race.
"Daytona is a restrictor-plate race and, unlike Daytona, four guys can’t get in a line at Phoenix and go to the front", said Stewart. "Daytona and Talladega have always just been two different forms of racing. With the draft being so important at those two tracks, it’s more of a team deal than an individual deal. What happens at Phoenix and the races after that has to be done on your own. You can’t help each other at Phoenix. You just have to go race.”
After watching Friday’s two practice sessions, it was no surprise we didn't see the names of Trevor Bayne, David Gilliland and Bobby Labonte -- top four finishers last week in the Daytona 500 -- anywhere near the top of the charts. Unlike last week’s race, there is no freakish two-car draft that can be the great equalizer. This week, It will be all about the top teams battling it out for the win.
Only two practice sessions were run leading up to qualifying. Of the two, the first practice should be used as the best barometer because most of the teams were running in race trim. The three known exceptions who used a qualifying set-up in the first practice were Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski and Jeff Burton.
The driver who looked the best during that first practice was Kevin Harvick who had the fastest average speeds and fourth fastest single lap overall. Seeing Harvick do well at Phoenix shouldn’t be that big of a surprise because he finished 13th or better last year in the six flat mid-range races at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond. Kyle Busch was the only driver to match Harvick’s feat last season.
In 2006 Harvick won four of those six races, including a sweep of Phoenix. There is some uncertainty because he’s using a brand new chassis, but it appears that all the successful notes from last year transferred well into the new car. Following the practices, Harvick Tweeted that his Cup car was “really, really fast in race trim.”
He's not just blowing smoke either, his car is really fast and likely the one to beat Sunday.
Denny Hamlin had the second fastest times during the first practice and third fastest single lap. He is currently the favorite to win the race and it’s easy to see why on paper. Last year coming into the fall Phoenix race, he had been on a roll at tracks like this having won at Richmond and then runner-up at New Hampshire. He led the most laps at the ensuing Phoenix race but finished 12th because of some late miscalculations on fuel mileage. Overall, Hamlin has four third-place finishes at Phoenix and has an average finish of 9.8 in the eight COT races.
During last year’s fall practices, Edwards blew everyone away and looked like the easy choice to win. He was first in every practice, sat on the pole and then won the race. Edwards is on the pole again this week, but his practices weren't near as good. He was much faster in qualifying trim than in a race set-up. He's debuting a new chassis this week.
Kyle Busch came out with the fastest lap in the final practice while in qualifying trim. During the early session, Busch was fifth fastest, but had the fastest 10 consecutive-lap average of the session meaning that he should be one of the best on the track in short runs.
Ryan Newman was excellent on the short run last season in this race when he beat Jeff Gordon off the line in the green-white-checker finish. In the fall, Newman came back with a runner-up finish to give him top-11 finishes in five of the six races on similar tracks. He didn’t do anything spectacular in practice, but he didn’t in either of his Phoenix practices last year. This week, he’s using the same chassis from both those Phoenix races.
A couple of long shots to take a look at begin with Kasey Kahne who had good average speed times and was the fastest for 10 consecutive laps in race trim during the final practice. David Ragan was right behind Kahne in the final practice on 10-lap speeds and was second quickest overall.
The was one initial surprise of the practice and qualifying sessions was a sluggish Jimmie Johnson. He finished 14th and 21st in practice, but before we get too worked thinking Jimmie may be sliding, we need to look back at his practices from the fall where they were worse than Friday’s. In that race, Johnson finished fifth. Over his career at Phoenix, no one has been better than Johnson’s 4.9 average finish in 15 starts. It’s his best track statistically.
Kurt Busch was fastest in the first session which got me kind of excited about his prospects, but I later found out he was in qualifying trim. He came back with only the 39th best lap in final practice. Busch finished ninth in the fall last year and won at Phoenix in 2005.
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