Subway Fresh Fit 500 Picks & Fantasy Picks
After taking a week off for Easter, NASCAR heads out West to Phoenix for the Subway Fresh Fit 500 at Phoenix International Raceway this Saturday night.
The Phoenix International Speedway is known for its odd shape and virtually flat, one mile track. This track is known for drivers who either love it, or absolutely despise it since it requires driving skills that most drivers haven’t yet mastered.
Track position is a must at Phoenix and for those drivers that are stuck in the back of the field it usually turns into a very long day. So finding drivers who generally start up front is what we will be looking at this week.
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Denny Hamlin has looked spectacular so far this year on tracks similar to Phoenix, but he still has not come away with a win due to some bad luck. Is this is week? We happen to think so. In seven starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has a very respectable average finish of 11.0, with four top 5 finishes. Hamlin has looked very strong the last few weeks – even on tracks that he normally struggles with. And with that momentum at his back, we will make him our top pick for the SUBWAY FRESH FIT 500.
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Kevin Harvick was racing at Phoenix long before he made the move to NASCAR and just one look at his track record here confirms that he is a very live long shot this week. With two wins already at Phoenix, he ranks second behind race favorite Jimmie Johnson, who has won the last three races at Phoenix. Harvick hasn't done much this year, but he has been up front in most races and with a return to his old stomping grounds, it might just be enough to get him over that hump and grab a win.
Tony Stewart 15/1
I know you might think we’re chasing Stewart and to be honest, we are since he is running well at inflated odds. And although oddsmakers are catching on and starting to adjust his odds from week to week, we think 15/1 is too generous to pass up again this week. It has been a few years since his last win here, but Stewart still has had some solid runs with four top 5 finishes in his last seven starts and we look for another solid run again this week.
Mark Martin 13/1
Mark Martin has finally broke out of the funk he was in the first few weeks and has posted some very good results the last three races. He’s posted three top 10’s while being in position for the win in each event. Martin loves racing at Phoenix and what better place to show his followers he still has it.
Love Harvick at this price. Definitely getting a lack of respect from the oddsmakers this week
Johnson, Stewart, Dale Jr and Ambrose this week for me in Fantasy.
Everyone but Harvick looked good in qualifying,Harvick looked horrible in happy hour as well and looks like they unloaded junk this weekend.
Everyone ran like I thought they would expect Harvick and glad to see Martin get the win.
I fucking hate dale jr
For Mr. "I fuckin hate Jr." Cash
Cash in While You Can!
By Mr. NASCAR
Opportunities are always there for sports bettors, but the key to cashing in on them is early recognition.
Back in 1985 the New England Patriots covered the spread a whole bunch of times in a row – Ten? Eleven? Thirteen? Something like that.
In 1988 the Baltimore Orioles lost 21 straight games to start their season. Anyone who saw that one coming and compounded a few times could have retired early.
And just last year the Houston Rockets won 22 straight games.
Opportunities like these are rare, but they’re out there. Ya just gotta know where to look and get in on it while the going's good..
And if you don’t know where to look this season, your old pal Mr. NASCAR has been pointing you in the right direction.
I make fun of Little Junior Earnhardt on a weekly basis, but it’s not just because I enjoy skewering him. Or because he deserves it – which he does. I’m trying to bring it to the attention of spots bettors that on a weekly basis you have what we gamblers call an overlay.
The public has not caught on yet as to just how bad this kid is.
He has neither the physical skills nor the mental skills to be a successful NASCAR driver. All he really has is his daddy’s name.
Junior is by far the number one most popular driver on the circuit so books like to offer him in matchups and props. But the books are starting to make adjustments in the prices they offer, and the drivers they are matching him against. The days of seeing Junior matched up against the top drivers are over. He hasn’t been paired with a Jeff Gordon, a Jimmy Johnson or a Kyle Busch since the second or third week of the season because the books were getting hammered as smart punters took the real driver every time, regardless of price. Right now he’s being matched with 2nd tier drivers, but he’s not on their level either, so this too won’t last much longer. Get it while you can.
On Sunday, in Phoenix, there was not a matchup on the board that you couldn’t have bet against him in and lost. Just another day at the races for Junior. Look at ‘lead laps run” and you’ll see Junior had a bunch of them, but the results don’t tell the whole story. Junior was in the back of the pack when there was a caution flag and 38 drivers went in to pit – Junior stayed out. This gave him a false lead, and it was only a matter of time before he was middle of the pack again as the real drivers began to catch up and pass him
Of course you can’t blame his crew chief for telling him to stay out and not pit, since once again Junior had a screw up on a previous pit. He is at his most amateur when he comes in for fuel and tires – driving past his designated area is always a laughable possibility with Junior at the wheel.
At the end of the race in Phoenix everyone else was on fresh tires and full of fuel, but little Junior was going to run out of gas – his refusal to pit earlier gave him some lead laps, but left him without enough fuel to finish the race. Frustration took over, and some back and forth bumping with Casey Mears saw Junior crash into the wall with 12 laps to go, 12 laps he wouldn’t have been able to finish anyway.
When it was all over, Little Junior finished 31st out of 39 cars running.
He finished behind EVERY driver he was matched up against.
He finished 23 1/2 spots higher that the 8 ½ the books foolishly placed him at in finishing props.
When it was all over, it was time for THE MONSTER THAT NASCAR CREATED to once again show the adult world what a petulant, spoiled child he really is - on the cool down lap he went after Mears, hit his car and spun him out.
And NASCAR played their accustomed role of blind mother –
“Not MY son. HE didn’t do anything wrong.”
In 2006, NASCAR fined Carl Edwards $20,000 dollars for hitting Junior on the cool down lap.
This year, Jr. spins Mears, and NASCAR does NOTHING !!!
NASCAR know that fans, the media and other drivers have started to refer to two sets of rules, “NASCAR rules” and “Junior Rules” and it’s as if they are no longer interested in even pretending it is not so. Remember Daytona – Junior dropped below the yellow line and caused a huge wreck. NASCAR did nothing. The day before, Jason Leffler dropped below the yellow line and NASCAR held him back for five laps. Afterwards, other drivers wondered aloud why one was penalized and the other was not.
But they knew. Everyone knows.
He can’t drive for shit.
And he’s an entitled little punk.
Cash against him while you can - before the books take him off the board.
(NASCAR season total +$955.00)
Sign seen as you enter Beavertown - 'lectricity and indoor outhouses!
by Mr. NASCAR
Well, it’s been a shitty week for ole’ Mr. NASCAR, and the hits just keep on coming.
It began last week, when I tapped TWO top 10 drivers - I had the number 5 finisher and the number 9 finisher - and STILL lost both matchups!
In all, I dropped $490 on the day and my season winnings are down to just over five hundred bucks.
Then, I thought I caught a break when the schedule maker gave us a short vacation (no race today) until we get to Phoenix next week for the Subway Fresh Fit 500, but then my crew chief and main bimbo Bambi insists we use the time off to visit her parents in Alabama. I said, “Hell, honey, we’re gonna be down there in three weeks to race at Talladega, can’t we just go see them then?” but she wasn’t having none of it. She said when we get to Talladega I’ll be busy at the track all week and wouldn’t have no time to visit, and she’s right. So after losing the race in Texas I lost my week off too, and I'm heading to Alabama.
In case you ain’t never been to ‘bama, it’s the deep South, and has a lot of little towns where Northern boys like me just don’t fit in, like the place where Bambi was born – Beavertown. It’s real name is Beaverton, but I call it Beavertown, cuz that’s where mine comes from! (though Bambi slaps me whenever I make that joke in front of her parents.)
Now, Beavertown is a real life honest-to-God Mayberry RFD, where everybody knows everybody and their business. I'm talkin small, small town, one where everyone is close to one another - and 'close' in the south has a whole other meaning than it does up north. If one Beavertown resident murdered another one they would probably get away with it and CSI would be SOL cuz they all got the same DNA!
It’s only got a population of about 200, and about 199 of them hate me, cuz I stole their little hometown princess away. The only one who doesn’t hate me is Bambi’s daddy. He don’t actually like me, he just couldn’t care less about nothing one way or another – 'cept for drinking beer and the Crimson Tide football team.
Bambi knows I hate going to Beavertown to see her folks, especially her mom, (otherwise known as Beelzebub) and this morning, when we hit the road to start the drive down there, she said, “Don’t you worry none, Honey. Remember what Franklin Delano Roosevelt said, ‘We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.’”
Not too many know this, but what he really said was, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself. And polio. Polio sucks. So, fear and polio, but that’s about it.”
And I’m thinking polio might be preferable to spending time in Beavertown.
I’ll check back in and give you a mid-week report of my trip.
Wish me luck.
Welcome to the site Mr. NASCAR.
I'm afraid being able to bet against JR in matchups is just about over. The sports books are definitely bleeding money on JR's pairings the last two seasons.
Unfortunately for me I am in a fantasy league so I have to use him sometimes because there aren't enough other choices available. I figured since it was such a short race he was worth the risk since I will use him sparingly the rest of the season.
I would definitely say his problems lately are mostly mental. I have said many times he doesn't have the attention span to finish a whole race.
If he dropped to the nationwide series full time he might be able to be the champion the next 10 years because the races are shorter.
Some great reads Mr Nascar
Thanks for the welcome, guys.
Michael, sorry, I didn't know you used him this week, I saw your post and just figured you were another member of "Junior Nation (not!)"
Wasn't trying to rub it in.
Yeah, you're right, the last 2 season have seen less pairings with jr., and higher prices against him. I caught him in a match against Smoke three weeks back (I think books have been slow to catch on that new team/ownership does NOT mean TS is not going to be competitive this season) but don't expect to see that matchup again, and certainly not at the price I got.
I can't blame the books though - they're just trying to do their job, although it would be nice to see someone else try and make matchups other than the 3-4 guys doing it currently.
Problem with NASCAR is not enough linemakers understand it, and too many book managers have gotten killed over the past 7-8 years because they tried to do their own matchups, failed to take prices down during qualifiying, didn't make adjustments after qualifying, and got killed by the sharpies.
And yeah, I think it is the mental part of the sport that junior is most lacking in. He has good backing, decent machines; ever-changing pit crew doesn't make it easier though and his driving skills are average.
Love when he drives past his pit though, and love cracking on him and getting hate mail from Junior Nation.
Still, betting aside, don't know about you two, is it just me, or is the season off to a kind of boring start?
Im outta here now, thanks for the correspondence.