Sylvania 300 preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
As we enter NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship this weekend in Loudon, it has become apparent to all that there are 3 drivers capable of winning the 10-race sprint. Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jimmie Johnson have every facet of being a successful driver going for them right now, including a lot of momentum, organizational continuity, team communication, great equipment, and just a little skill behind the wheel.
Over the last nine races it seems like the three drivers have been playing to the tune of “Anything you can do, I can do better”, No one else has won over that span and each of the three have won three times each. The last driver other than Kyle, Carl, or Jimmie to win a race was Kyle’s big brother, Kurt, won the first New Hampshire race in late June, albeit by the help of rain. Together, the BIG 3 have combined to win 18 of the 26 races this season.
As good as Kyle has been over a few separate long stretches this season, the last 4 races have gone in back to back fashion to Jimmie and Carl. It’s almost like Kyle is in a slump of sorts and this is the absolute worst time to start a slump. Momentum is everything at this stage and if it wasn’t for high risk on Kyle Busch to win the Championship already, Jimmie Johnson would be the favorite among the 3 candidates.
True odds on the three drivers based on their career record at all the Chase tracks, driving record under pressure, and then mixing in momentum, Johnson would be a 2 to 1 favorite, Busch 3 to 1, and Edwards 9 to 2.
The only thing going against Johnson is history. Three Championships in a row for a driver is tough, and only a tough rattle snake like Cale Yarbrough has ever done it. Johnson may not be as brash or vocal as the great Yarbrough, but he’s every bit as consistently tenacious.
This week in New Hampshire we’ll likely see the exact same chassis we saw them run with last week in Richmond. Everything witnessed last week will have some sort of relevance this week. All the handicapping you may have done for Richmond can be used almost identically the same for this week. Who are we to argue with what the crew chiefs do? If their notes are used for each track on the same chassis then it should be good enough for us to do the same.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1- #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
2- #20 Tony Stewart (10/1)
3- #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
4- #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
5- #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
Driver to win the Sylvania 300
Jimmie Johnson +500
Kyle Busch +600
Denny Hamlin +600
Tony Stewart +700
Dale Earnhardt Jr +900
Carl Edwards +900
Kevin Harvick +1000
Jeff Gordon +1400
Clint Bowyer +1400
Kasey Kahne +2000
Greg Biffle +2000
Jeff Burton +2000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2500
David Ragan +3000
Kurt Busch +3000
Ryan Newman +5000
Brian Vickers +6000
Field +2200
TheGreek
Driver Highlights - New Hampshire
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last seven races at New Hampshire. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) 5/1
One win, three top fives
Average finish of 15.7
Average Running Position of 13.8, 11th-best
Driver Rating of 92.4, ninth-best
96 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
330 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
1,260 (60.2%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet) 18/1
Four wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 13.1
Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 94.6, eighth-best
323 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
1,474 (70.5%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
160 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet) 10/1
Four top fives, seven top 10s
Average finish of 17.8
Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
Driver Rating of 100.1, fifth-best
108 Fastest Laps Run, tied for fourth-most
324 Green Flag Passes, tied for seventh-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 124.364 mph, third-fastest
1,599 (76.4%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
215 Quality Passes, third-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) 18/1
Three wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 11.6
Series-best Average Running Position of 7.0
Driver Rating of 108.7, second-best
183 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 124.435 mph, second-fastest
Series-high 1,855 (88.7%) Laps in the Top 15
Series-high 219 Quality Passes
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota) 10/1
One win, two top fives, four top 10s
Average finish of 6.8
Average Running Position of 9.6, third-best
Driver Rating of 104.0, fourth-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 124.191 mph, fourth-most
1,270 (85.1%) Laps in the Top 15, second-best percentage
Series-best average 37.2 Quality Passes (186 total in five races)
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet) 12/1
One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.7
Average Running Position of 9.7, fourth-best
Driver Rating of 104.3, third-best
120 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 124.188 mph, fifth-fastest
1,577 (75.4%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-best
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) 5/1
Two wins, three top fives, eight top 10s
Average finish of 10.5
Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 98.3, seventh-best
100 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
1,681 (80.4%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
217 Quality Passes, second-most
Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge) 45/1
Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; four poles
Average finish of 11.4
Average Running Position of 12.7, ninth-best
Driver Rating of 99.9, sixth-best
94 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 124.119 mph, sixth-fastest
1,618 (77.3%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
175 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota) 8/1
Two wins, 10 top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.8
Average Running Position of 9.2, second-best
Series-best Driver Rating of 118.6
Series-high 223 Fastest Laps Run
Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 124.508 mph
1,738 (83.1%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
209 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Odd and Ends - New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
History
Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989. It was the first superspeedway to be constructed in the United States since 1969.
The official opening was June 5, 1990 with the first race being a NASCAR Nationwide Series race on July 15, 1990.
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on July 11, 1993.
The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck series race was on Sept. 9, 1996.
The track was renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2008. Notebook
There have been 27 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one a year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.
Four drivers have competed in all 27 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.
Mark Martin won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole.
Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
There have been 15 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four). Qualifying has been canceled three times.
17 different drivers have posted victories, led by Jeff Burton (four).
Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers that have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners. Roush Fenway Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have each won six races, more than any other organization.
Chevrolet has won 12 races – including five of the past seven.
14 of 27 races have been won from the top-10 starting positions, including four from the pole.
The deepest in the field that a New Hampshire race winner started was 38th by Jeff Burton in 1999.
All NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire have been scheduled for 300 laps.
There has been one postponed/rescheduled race at New Hampshire. The 2001 fall race was run as the season finale in November, after being rescheduled following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
There have been eight different pole winners in the past nine New Hampshire races (qualifying was canceled once in the nine-race period).
There have been seven different race winners in the past seven New Hampshire races.
There have been three shortened races at New Hampshire: July 2002 (273 laps), September 2002 (207) and June 2008 (284).
Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.
Clint Bowyer led 222 laps and scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 in last year’s fall New Hampshire race.
In the Chase era, the eventual champion has an average finish of 12.0 in the first race of the Chase, which has always been held at New Hampshire. Kurt Busch won in 2004, Tony Stewart finished second in 2005 and Jimmie Johnson finished 39th and sixth in 2006 and 2007, respectively.
NASCAR in New Hampshire
There have been 27 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in New Hampshire, all at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
13 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as New Hampshire.
There has been one race winner from New Hampshire in NASCAR’s three national series: Jamie Aube. Aube, from Manchester, won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Oxford Plains Speedway in 1987.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 27 of 36 (9-14-08) Track Size: 1.058 miles Race Length: 317.4 miles (300 laps) Banking/Corners: 12 degrees Banking/Straights: 2 degrees
Driver Rating at New Hampshire
Tony Stewart 118.6
Jeff Gordon 108.7
Kevin Harvick 104.3
Denny Hamlin 104.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100.1
Ryan Newman 99.9
Jimmie Johnson 98.3
Jeff Burton 94.6
Kyle Busch 92.4
Martin Truex Jr. 92.4
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (7 total) at New Hampshire.
Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Clint Bowyer (130.412 mph, 29.206 seconds) 2007 race winner: Clint Bowyer, 110.475 mph, 9-16-07) Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (133.357 mph, 28.561 secs., 9-12-03) Track race record: Jeff Burton (117.134 mph, 7-13-97)
Estimated Pit Window: 70-78 laps, based on fuel mileage
Sylvania 300 PreQ
Kevin Harvick has not been mentioned among the top contenders to take the championship this season. Harvick, however, is proving that he will be a force in the Chase for the Championship by recording his sixth consecutive top 10 finish. Consistency is the key once the final 10 races come around as one bad finish can essentially end a drivers hopes of hoisting the trophy at the end of the year. Harvick does benefit from beginning the Chase at New Hampshire Motor Speedway where he has run well. He won at the track in 2006 and is averaging a 10th place average finish over the last four races. Expect Harvick to be a major player over the final 10 events starting this weekend in the Sylvania 300.
The one thing that Harvick has yet to record this season is a win. Much like Harvick Tony Stewart enters the Chase winless and has been running much better as of late. Stewart has recorded three 2nd place finishes in the last six races with an 8th place average finish in that span. He also has a pair of wins in his career at NHMS with an average finish of 8th place in the last four races at the track. Stewart was upset he has not won yet this season and could rectify that this weekend. Look for a good run out of the #20 Home Depot Toyota this weekend.
It has been a disappointing season for Martin Truex Jr. after he missed making the Chase for the second consecutive season. Truex has just seven top 10s this season but he has run very well at NHMS in his career. He has three straight top 5s at the track including a 4th place finish early this summer at the track boosting his career average finish in five races to 10th place. Truex is looking to build some momentum for the 2009 season, which could be his last with DEI. He will be a player for the remainder of the season although he will not be competing for the title.
Clint Bowyer won this race last season. While winning a race at the NASCAR level is always a great feat that is all Bowyer has to brag about his career at NHMS. In his four other starts at the track Bowyer has failed to finish in the top 20 as he averages a 22nd place finish in five career starts. Bowyer did come on strong at the end of last season and held off a furious challenge for the final transfer spot from Kasey Kahne and David Ragan. Still, Bowyer gets the ‘buyer beware’ label for this race.
Travis Kvapil has run decent for Yates Racing this season holding down the 23 spot in the point standings. He has 11 top 20 finishes on the season with three top 10s. Kvapil, however, does not like this track at all. In five career starts at NHMS he is averaging a lowly 33rd place finish failing to finish any of those starts in the top 25. Kvapil has been productive as a lower tier driver but this is not a track where you want him in your lineup. Avoid the #28 Hitachi Power Tools / K&N Ford for this race.
profantasysports.com
Sylvania 300 Driver Rating
Tony Stewart is atop NASCAR’s Driver Ratings for this weekend’s Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In 19 career races at Loudon, Stewart has two victories, along with 10 top 5s. His consistency has been remarkable to say the least. This will hopefully be a good start for him in the Chase. Without a victory on his resume this season, he’ll begin the playoff 80 points behind Kyle Busch.
Kevin Harvick has eight top 10s in 13 career starts at New Hampshire. His High Rating of 148.9 is second only to Stewart. Beyond his success at New Hampshire, Harvick has had incredible fortune leading up to the Chase. Harvick has six consecutive top 10s, including three top 5s. Many publications are listing Harvick as a dark horse candidate to win the title. He may have used all of his luck a bit too early in the season.
Denny Hamlin has been nothing short of brilliant at Loudon. In five career starts, Hamlin has four top 10s, including a victory in 2007. Hamlin has never finished outside the top 15, and has an average finish of 6.8. Hamlin is too inconsistent to compete for a title, but if has any chance, he’ll have to excel at tracks like this. His High Rating of 114.9 is pretty mediocre, but his exceptional finishes shot him to a 104.0 Average Driver Rating.
profantasysports.com
Driver Handicaps: New Hampshire
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for Sunday's Sylvania 300. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 300-lap event.
Who's HOT at New Hampshire
• Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with a 6.8 average finish.
• Tony Stewart has one win and three finishes of third or better in his last seven starts.
• Jeff Burton leads all drivers with four wins.
• Two-time winner Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top five in his last three starts.
• 2006 September winner Kevin Harvick has 10.0 average finish in his last four starts.
Keep an Eye on at New Hampshire
• Clint Bowyer will be driving the same car that won this event at NHMS last season.
• Series points leader Kyle Busch has one win and three top fives at NHMS.
• Matt Kenseth holds the fourth best average finish (10.5) at NHMS.
• Kurt Busch is coming off his third career win at NHMS after leading 10 laps up until rain called the race.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be back in the same car that led 29 laps at NHMS in June before getting caught up in an accident entering pit road.
New Hampshire Rookie Report
Patrick Carpentier won the pole for his first start at NHMS in June but only led four laps and finished two laps off the pace in 31st when the race was called for rain. Regan Smith has made three Cup starts at NHMS, with a best coming this June when he finished 27th. Sam Hornish Jr. and Michael McDowell finished 39th and 42nd in their first starts at the track this June. Joey Logano will attempt to make his first Cup start at NHMS in the No. 96. Rookie Standings
Qualifying Tidbits
Patrick Carpentier stunned the Cup world when he took the pole for the June race in his first start there and 17th career Cup start. Ryan Newman leads all drivers in poles at the track with four and he and Jeff Gordon are the only repeat pole winners who are still active full-time drivers. Four New Hampshire races have been won from the pole, the most of any other spot at the track. Clint Bowyer most recently won from the pole at NHMS when he took his first career Cup victory last year in this event. Newman holds the qualifying record at the track of 133.357 mph set in qualifying for this event in 2003. Qualifying has been rained out twice in qualifying for the fall race, most recently in 2004
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Tony Stewart
Pete Pistone: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Rachael West: Tony Stewart
Kym Opalenik: Denny Hamlin
Top 20 Driver Notes - Based on Current Standings
1. Kyle Busch: Busch won the 2006 July race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway after leading 107 laps from the fourth starting position. It marked his second of three top-five finishes in seven starts at the track. Busch's finishing average (15.7) is hindered by two finishes of 27th and 38th in the 2005 and 2006 fall races after coming together with two separate drivers in each incident. Busch, who finished 25th in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing in June, has led 176 laps at the 1.058-mile track.
2. Carl Edwards: Edwards has recorded an average finish of 14.1 in eight starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His best finish came in the 2006 July race when he took the checkered flag in second. Edwards has completed all but one of the laps he has attempted at the one-mile speedway. Despite that fact, his 2006 finish is his only top 10. This weekend Edwards will return in the same car that finished 17th in June at NHMS.
3. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson, who swept both races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2003, has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts. His only finish (39th) outside the top 15 came in this event in 2006 when Johnson's No. 48 experienced engine problems early, got caught in a chain reaction accident on lap 80, and ended up in the wall. Although Johnson has yet to win a pole at NHMS, his starting average of 9.4 ranks fourth among all active drivers. This weekend Johnson will be driving the same car (chassis No. 61) that won at Martinsville and Phoenix last fall.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Earnhardt Jr. picked up his best finish since 2004 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the June event last year after he came home fourth. The finish marked his seventh top 10 in 18 starts, and it came after leading a race-high 64 laps. In the 2006 July event, Earnhardt Jr. posted his third DNF (finished 43rd) at NHMS after losing an engine. He started 25th in that race and spent 80 laps in the top 15 before the problem struck, and the result ended a streak of three consecutive top 10s. In June, Earnhardt made his New Hampshire debut with Hendrick Motorsports and led 29 laps before getting caught up in an accident entering pit road. He will return in that same car (chassis No. 490) that finished 24th in that event.
5. Clint Bowyer: Prior to this event last year, New Hampshire Motor Speedway was Bowyer's worst non-restrictor plate track on the schedule based on his finishing average of 29.3. He turned around his performance at the 1.058-mile speedway by dominating this race, leading 22 laps en route to his first career win. After finishing 22nd in June, Bowyer's New Hampshire average sits at 22.2. This weekend he will look for another victory when he climbs behind the wheel of chassis No. 212. This is the same car that won at NHMS and at Richmond this season.
6. Denny Hamlin: Defending race winner Hamlin leads all drivers with a 6.8 average finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His win in the June race last season was one of four finishes of eighth or better. This weekend Hamlin will look to continue his success on the flat tracks by driving the same car (chassis No. 214) that raced at NHMS this season.
7. Jeff Burton: On no other track has Jeff Burton scored more victories than New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He has claimed four victories at the "Magic Mile", one each year beginning in 1997. His last win there was on September 17, 2000, and he started second and went on to lead all 300 laps of the race. In his third win at the track, Burton won from the furthest back of any NHMS winner after he started 38th and led for only two laps. The track is sentimental as well for one other reason, as it was the site of his Sprint Cup debut in 1993. He has started in every race at the track since, with a total of seven top fives, 12 top 10s and has led a total of 694 laps in 10 races. This weekend Burton will be driving the same car (chassis No. 204) that raced finished 12th at NHMS in June. Burton has posted an average finish of 11.1 in his eight races at NHMS with Richard Childress Racing.
8. Tony Stewart: In 19 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Stewart has two wins (most recently in the 2005 July event), 10 top-five and 11 top-10 finishes. Stewart, who has led in 10 races for 132 laps, led a combined total of 388 laps in the two races he won. His worst finish in the last five races came in the 2006 July event when he finished 37th after a tangle with pole-sitter Ryan Newman early in the race. This weekend Stewart will pilot the same car (chassis No. 216) that led a race-high 132 laps and appeared to be on its way to a possible victory finish at NHMS in June until rain cut short the race when other teams gambled on fuel.
9. Greg Biffle: Biffle has four top-10 finishes and six finishes of 21st or worse, including two DNFs, in 12 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Biffle turned his New Hampshire record around with three consecutive top fives up until the last four races when he finished 14th, 31st, 13th and 21st, respectively. This weekend Biffle will be driving the same car (chassis No. RK-608) that finished eighth at Indianapolis.
10. Jeff Gordon: Gordon is the leader among all drivers in top fives (12), top 10s (15) and laps led (1,141) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His last of three victories at NHMS came from the pole on August 30, 1998. Gordon's worst finish in the last 12 Loudon races came in the 2005 July race when he suffered a late race problem when his brakes gave out less than 15 laps from the checkered flag. After running in the top 10 most of the day, Gordon was credited with a 25th-place finish in that event. In the last four races at NHMS, Gordon has posted an average finish of 4.5.
11. Kevin Harvick: This weekend Harvick will be seeking his ninth top-10 finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Last September, he ended a streak of three consecutive finishes of eighth or better when he crossed the finish line in 17th. Harvick's only win at New Hampshire came in the 2006 September race when he led 196 laps from the pole. This weekend Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 251) that finished 14th at NHMS in June.
12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth holds the fourth best average finish (10.5) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His finishing average is bolstered by finishes of 14th or better in 11 of the last 12 races. Kenseth, who has led 88 laps at NHMS, will return in the same car (chassis No. RK-606) that finished 18th at NHMS in June after the race was called for rain.
13. Kasey Kahne: This weekend will mark Kahne’s 10th career start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His worst non-DNF finishes at the track came the three Car of Tomorrow events in 25th, 20th and 30th place. Kahne's last top of four top 10s came in the June 2006 race.
14. David Ragan: Ragan has posted a 24.7 average finish in his three career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He appeared to be on his way to a top-10 finish in June, but got caught up in an incident on that track that wasn’t his fault. This weekend Ragan will race the same car (chassis No. 467) that finished 11th at Martinsville.
15. Brian Vickers: Vickers finished 16th at new Hampshire Motor Speedway in June for his best finish in two starts with Team Red Bull. Prior to 2007, Vickers competed in six races with Hendrick Motorsports, capturing one top 10, a fifth-place finish in this event in 2006.
16. Ryan Newman: New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the site of Newman's first career Sprint Cup victory. The win came after he won his first of his series leading four poles at the "Magic Mile" in the 2002 fall event. His second victory came again in the fall race, in 2005, after leading 66 laps from the 13th starting position. Newman has led in all but two of his 13 Loudon starts for a total of 520 laps. In September 2004, Newman lost the engine in the Alltel Dodge while leading, relegating him to a 33rd-place finish, his only DNF at NHMS. This weekend, Newman will race the same car (chassis No. PRS-525) that finished 10th at Auto Club Speedway in February.
17. Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr. is coming off three consecutive top fives at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His best finish in that span came in the 2007 June race when he led 46 laps en route to a third-place finish. In his most recent start, Truex finished fourth to give him an overall average of 10.4 in five starts.
18. Jamie McMurray: McMurray has competed in five races with Roush Fenway Racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. His best finish with the team came in this event last year in 11th. In June, McMurray recorded his first DNF at NHMS with the team after a crash relegated him to a 41st-place finish. McMurray's previous six starts came with Chip Ganassi Racing, where he posted three top-10 finishes. This weekend McMurray will race the same car (chassis No. RK-572) that he raced at NHMS in June.
19. Kurt Busch: Busch is coming off his third career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway after leading 10 laps up until rain called the race. The victory was his first top 10 in five starts with Penske Racing. In 2004, Busch swept both races at NHMS after leading a combined 265 laps. This weekend Busch will debut a new car (chassis No. 576) that is considered a “clone” of the “574 car” he won with at NHMS in June.
20. Bobby Labonte: Labonte will be making his sixth start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with Petty Enterprises. In June, he scored his best start (second) and finish (10th) with the team. Prior to joining Petty, Labonte recorded nine top 10s with Joe Gibbs and Bill Davis Racing.
Sylvania 300 HOT! Sheet
He may not be considered one of the favorites to win the Cup, but if Kevin Harvick keeps being as consistent as he has recently, he’s going to make a strong run for it. His 7th place effort at Richmond last weekend made it six races in a row in which he finished 8th or better. He also ended up leading 80 laps, the most that he’s led in a race so far this season. He won this race from the pole just two years ago. Get him on your roster if you can.
Fellow Chaser, Tony Stewart, will start the “post season” with some momentum of his own. As you can see from our chart, over the course of the last six races he has an average finish of 8th place. The #20 car has yet to make the left turn into victory lane this season, but the team has finished runner-up three times in the last six events. He is a multiple winner at this track so that first checkered flag may fly for him this weekend.
Even though he has a couple of number ones on his doors and hood, Denny Hamlin has had the lucky number of three recently. That’s exactly where he’s finished in each of the last three weeks, and it marks the seventh time this season he has been scored in that position. It’s been good enough to place him fourth at the start of the Chase, well within striking distance of the leader. He’s been highly successful in his five races here, including a victory. You can almost assure at least another top 3 showing.
At the other end of the spectrum this week is a guy who not long ago was a pretty good fantasy option. Lately, however, Elliott Sadler has been anything but good. He has failed to finish on the lead lap in each of the last three events. At Bristol, he was 10 laps down in 32nd. A good start (6th) turned out bad (34th) at California. He wound up two laps down in 37th at Richmond. He should not be on your roster at this time.
His teammate, Kasey Kahne, has found hard times recently, too. It results in him getting the unlucky 13th position in the standings, which leaves him on the outside looking in. The struggles began with back-to-back DNFs at Michigan (40th – engine) and Bristol (40th – accident). He bounced back at California with a strong 8th place finish. But then he could only come up with a 19th place showing at Richmond. Until he comes up with a couple of weeks of good outings in a row, we’d stay away.
profantasysports.com
Rocketman Sports Top 5 Nascar Drivers to Win in New Hamsphire
by: Rocketman Sports
The Sprint Cup boys move to New Hampshire this Sunday for the 27th race of the season. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1.058 mile Oval flat Track located in Loudon, New Hampshire. Here are my Top 5 drivers to win in New Hampshire this weekend. We still have to wait for Qualifying and Happy Hour before finalizing our Head to Head matchups. New Hampshire is normally a very good money track for us!! Now 31-19 62% the past 19 weeks with our Head to Head Nascar matchups.
For starters, I think Tony Stewart has the best shot of winning this race. Stewart has 2 wins, 10 Top 5 finishes and 11 Top 10 finishes in his 19 starts here in New Hampshire. Stewart has an average finish of 12.8 here in New Hampshire. Past 2 years, Tony Stewart's average finish at track type - FLAT TRACK is 8.0. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes.
Next in line I would go with Jeff Gordon. Gordon has three wins, 12 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes in 27 starts here in New Hampshire. Gordon has an average finish of 11.6 here in New Hampshire. Past 2 years, Jeff Gordon's average finish at track type - FLAT TRACK is 6.5. In 6 races, he has 1 win and 4 top 10 finishes.
Then, back in my 3rd spot, I have to go with Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has 1 win, 2 Top 5 finishes and 4 Top 10 finishes in his 5 starts in New Hampshire. Hamlin has an average finish of 6.8 here in New Hampshire which is best among all drivers. Past 2 years, Denny Hamlin's average finish at track type - FLAT TRACK is 7.7. In 6 races, he has 1 win and 4 top 10 finishes. Denny Hamlin's average finish over the past 3 races is 3.0. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes.
Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Martin Truex Jr. Truex Jr. has no wins, 3 Top 5 finishes and 3 Top 10 finishes in his 5 starts in New Hampshire. Truex Jr. has an average finish of 10.4 in New Hampshire which is 2nd best among all active drivers. Past 2 years, Martin Truex's average finish at track type - FLAT TRACK is 7.8. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 5 top 10 finishes.
Rounding out my Top 5 and sitting in the 5th position is Ryan Newman. Newman has two wins, five Top 5 finishes and nine Top 10 finishes in his 13 starts in New Hampshire. Newman has an average finish of 11.4 in New Hampshire.
The odds for these drivers to win in New Hamsphire currently at Bodog are:
#20 Tony Stewart 6 to 1
#24 Jeff Gordon 12 to 1
#11 Denny Hamlin 6 to 1
#1 Martin Truex Jr. 25 to 1
#12 Ryan Newman 40 to 1
Qualifying for first "Chase" race rained out
Fri 12th, September 2008
Loudon, NH (Sports Network) - The starting line-up for the first race in the 2008 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship, the Sylvania 300, was set by owner points after rain cancelled Friday's qualifying at the New Hampshire International Speedway.
Points leader Kyle Busch will start on the pole, while Carl Edwards will start in the second spot.
"I feel like starting up front now, we should be able to hold on to the track position a little bit better, where as though some of those other guys that are starting around us, it maybe a little bit of a struggle for them, you never know what really happens," Busch said.
Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will make up row two, and Clint Bowyer and Denny Hamlin will start in row three.
Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth, the remaining "Chase" drivers, will start seventh through 12th, respectively.
Joey Logano will make his Sprint Cup debut, driving the No.96 Toyota for Hall of Fame Racing.
"I'm really excited about it," Logano said. "We brought the same car back from Richmond after practicing there. It was a good top-10 car in practice, so I was happy with that."
Logano will start 40th.
Tony Raines and Carl Long failed to make the field.
Teams were able to practice earlier in the day with Bowyer leading the way at 130.273 m.p.h. Bowyer won his first career Cup race at New Hampshire one year ago.
Sprint Cup final practice is scheduled for Saturday morning. The green flag is scheduled to drop Sunday around 2 p.m. (et).
Brian Gabrielle
Sylvania 300
Last Week: Old reliable came through, as Jimmie Johnson won his fourth race of the season and the third in which we picked him. That gave us a net positive 0.5 units on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 100% for the week. On the season, we're up to a profit of 5.69 units on 33.5 units wagered, a return of 16.7%. We're also giving you a winning week in 19 of 25 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won three units on three units wagered, a return of 100%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 15.73 units on 96 units wagered, a return of 16.4%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Tony Stewart (+600), 1/6th unit. For the first race in the Chase for the Championship, the Smokeless Set heads to the flat one-miler in Loudon, New Hampshire. Stewart had a hissy fit at the end of the Richmond race last Sunday, blaming his crew for the No. 20's second place finish, but it's always been my contention that Smoke runs best when he's pissed off. He had the best car at Loudon back in June, but lost because of bad late pit strategy and because of rain. Nevertheless, I think he's got a chance to start the Chase off right, and finally get his first win of 2008.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+500), 1/6th unit. Johnson is going for three wins in a row, and has a chance to do it. In flat-track Car of Tomorrow races, nobody has a better finishing average than Johnson. Get this: in three COT events at Phoenix, he's finished first, first and fourth. In three COT events at Martinsville, he's finished (you guessed it) first, first and fourth. And in three COT events at Loudon, he's finished a pedestrian fifth, sixth and ninth, though remember, his ninth-place finish here in June was artificially lowered by the rain. I give Johnson a great chance of contending for this win.
Take Denny Hamlin (+600), 1/6th unit. Hamlin won the first-ever COT race at this track, back in June of 2007, and since then he's finished 15th and eighth here. He won at Martinsville, a similar venue, earlier this year, and placed third at Phoenix. This kind of racetrack is his milieu. And you have to admit: you don't often hear the word "milieu" used in association with NASCAR.
Sylvania 300 PostQ
Denny Hamlin struggled in the Chase for the Championship last season. He says the experience taught him plenty and he now has a much different approach entering the Chase for the second consecutive season. Hamlin has already looked like he has benefited from that experience as he ranks as the top driver on the PostQ forecast for the race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This has been one of Hamlin’s best tracks in his young career averaging a 7th place finish in five career starts. He has finished all five starts in the top 15 while recoding a win at the track in 2007. Hamlin is ready to contend for the title and now has the experience to do so.
There has been no driver that has been hotter than Kevin Harvick over the last six races. In that span Harvick has recorded six top 10 finishes with three 4th place runs. Harvick is the dark horse to win the championship and if he continues to run as well as he has in the past few weeks could be a contender. Getting off to a good start is important and New Hampshire has been kind to Harvick in his career. He won here in 2006 with eight top 10s in 15 career starts. The #29 Pennzoil/Rheem Chevrolet will be a player in the Sylvania 300 and throughout the Chase.
The one driver we were not high on earlier in the week we are no in love with as Clint Bowyer is looking to repeat last season’s win to start the Chase in which Bowyer remained a player in the championship hunt. Bowyer has had the strongest car in the practice sessions ranking as the top driver on our Speed chart. Bowyer had had his problems at New Hampshire with the win his lone top 20 finish in five career starts. Still, Bowyer has looked extremely solid this weekend at may be the car to beat.
For the driver in the Chase getting off to a slow start at New Hampshire pretty much ends any chance of winning a championship. If you’re a driver at the tail end of the top 12, such as Matt Kenseth, a poor finish in this race is even more detrimental. It doesn’t look like Kenseth will be a factor in the championship as he has looked horrible so far this weekend in Loudon. He ranked just 35th quickest on our Speed chart and was just 18th in the race earlier this season. While a top 20 finish is not a killer drivers need top 10 runs to contend for the title. It doesn’t look like Kenseth will be that good and gets the ‘buyer beware’ label for the Sylvania 300.
It has been a horrible three weeks for Elliott Sadler as he has failed to finish in top 30 in the last three races. Sadler is having a decent season but has been often bitten by the bad luck bug. He has not looked very good in the practice sessions ranking 31st on our Speed chart while also having to start in the middle of the pack in the 23 position. Sadler does have a pair of top 10 runs at New Hampshire in the last two seasons including a 5th place finish earlier this season but also has a pair of finishes outside the top 35 in that same span. We expect a long day for the #19 Best Buy Dodge this weekend.
profantasysports.com
Trading Paint: Sylvania 300 picks
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week, as the series enters the Chase for the Championship with Sunday's Sylvania 300 in Loudon, N.H., the point structure is being revamped to align the panelists with the series.
The rules remain the same:
1. A panelist can't pick the same driver in back-to-back weeks.
2. Standings will be calculated each week based on the actual points earned by the drivers each panelist picks to win.
The panelists' points have all been reset to 5,000 base points with 10 points awarded to each panelist for the races they correctly picked the winner. In addition, standings that do not reflect the points being reset will also be listed each week.
After 26 races, the standings are as follows, with their pick of last week's winner in parentheses:
1. Steve Kaminski (Denny Hamlin) -- 3,961
2. Jeff Bleiler (Clint Bowyer) -- 3,543
3. Mike Pryson (Tony Stewart) -- 3,534
4. Antoine Pitts (Carl Edwards) -- 3,370
Entering the Chase, the standings are as follows:
1. Steve Kaminski -- 5,050
2. Jeff Bleiler -- 5,020
2. Antoine Pitts -- 5,020
4. Mike Pryson -- 5,010
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
It was starting to get out of hand. Simple enough. That's the bare bones reason behind pushing for a revamping of the Trading Paint points system to align itself with NASCAR's Chase. Kaminski had to be brought back to earth, and this was the sensible way to do it. Oh, he whined. Most certainly. And he'll be whining even more once this 10-race sprint for the Sprint Cup has concluded.
You can't go by what happened the last time around at New Hampshire when most of the class of the field pitted late and those who stayed out were rewarded when rain put an end to the race. That's why Kurt Busch, Michael Waltrip, J.J. Yeley, Martin Truex and Elliott Sadler were that race's top five. Not so Siunday.
• Winner -- Kyle Busch. Some will say this is the easy pick. I'll have you know that of the four panelists, I have picked Busch now exactly twice all season, meaning I don't bank on the sure thing every week like others. It may also mean I don't know what I'm doing with these picks. At any rate, Busch has gone a season-long four races without a win. He gets off to a good start in the Chase opener.
• Sleeper -- David Ragan. He may be smarting from a late-season slump that saw him drop from Chase contender to also-ran. He certainly wants to prove to folks that he can drive with the big dogs, and this would be a good time to start.
• No chance -- Tony Stewart. The wheels of this train have been about to fall off for quite some time, and last week's blowup over the radio between Stewart and crew chief Greg Zipadelli sounded like the last lug nut is dangling there. Stewart's in the Chase, but he might as well not be.
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
So the other three participants on this panel want to apply the Chase format to Trading Paint, which will wipe away nearly all of my 400-point lead.
That's fine, we can do that. Bring it on, boys.
• Winner -- Tony Stewart. He'll serve notice that he is not to be overlooked in the Chase. Stewart finally wins his first race this season.
• Sleeper -- Martin Truex Jr. He has three consecutive top-five New Hampshire finishes.
• No chance -- Jeff Gordon. It's looking like this will be the first time since 1993 that Gordon goes winless in a season.
Antoine Pitts -- The Ann Arbor News
Alright gentlemen, the Chase is on. It's another chance for us all to learn from the mistakes of the past -- not that I've made too many -- and put yourself into victory lane with the correct pick.
• Winner -- Kyle Busch. He kicks off the Chase season dominantly, just like he's driven all season.
• Sleeper -- Clint Bowyer. Even though it didn't propel him to the championship, the won at Loudon last year.
• No chance -- Kasey Kahne. Finishing 13th in the standings had to be a bitter pill.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
We finally made it to the Chase. Now, the real race begins. Here's how it shapes up for Week 1 at New Hampshire:
• Winner -- Jeff Gordon. No one was happier to see the 26-race chase to the Chase end than Gordon. He was just about everyone's favorite to win the title at the beginning of the season. All he's done this year is go winless. He even had a few anxious moments late in the regular season and could have actually missed the Chase. Here's predicting that he makes up the 80-point difference, or at least most of it, this week at a track where he finished second in both 2007 races.
• Sleeper -- Kasey Kahne. K-squared just missed out on the Chase and the big money checks that get delivered at the end-of-the-season banquet. Kahne's big money will now only come with big finishes over the final 10 races. With two wins this season, he already has more wins than 9 of the 12 Chasers.
• No chance -- Jeff Burton. The more you look at the numbers, the more you wonder how this guy has been so high in the points this season. He's finished out of the top five in 12 straight races. Ten of those races, he's finished outside the top 10. Burton showed a little life last week at Richmond, but not enough to think he's a threat this week.
mlive.com
Sylvania 300 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Move over Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, the rumors of two-time defending Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson's demise have been greatly exaggerated as No. 48 goes into New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday at 1 p.m. EST for the Sylvania 300 off back-to-back wins and 40 bonus points behind the Chase leader Kyle Busch.
Last week rain washed out the debut of Joe Gibbs Racing 18-year-old racing prodigy, Joey Logano, who's slated to take over the No. 20 from Tony Stewart next year. Logano is set at 100/1 to win in his first Sprint Car race this weekend. It only took Logano three races to win his first Nationwide race this season so keep an eye out for the Home Depot 02 car on Sunday.
While NHMS is the shortest race of the season (by one mile) it will have the most cars with 46 entrants as Logano will be the fourth car that JGR fields in the Sylvania 300. Gamblers who like to trend spot (or wager on the winning manufacturer) should note that Chevrolet has won five out of the last six years and in the last eight years the only other manufacturer to win was Dodge. Complicating matters more is that a different driver has won the last seven races at NHMS and the last driver to have two wins here was Kurt Busch when he swept in 2004.
Who will win the Sylvania 300?
What makes the Chase so exciting for me is that with the points reset and a bit of good hard consistent driving it's possible any one of the 12 drivers in the Chase could win the Cup. Two weeks ago experts were lamenting the Busch and Edwards duel a two-car chase. The resurgence of Johnson and the cooling off of Busch (he hasn't won in five races!) shows how quickly things can change from week-to-week in NASCAR. Dominating the season can become just a footnote to a season if drivers aren't consistent for the next 10 races they're not going to win the Sprint Cup.
Just ask Jeff Gordon about last year. Gordon dominated the entire season until the Chase and Johnson won his third race in a row at Martinsville, positioning him to overtake Gordon and win his second Cup. This year all Johnson has to do is catch Busch, and considering Johnson's past history you could say that Johnson has Busch and Edwards just where he wants them as the Chase begins for the first of 10 playoff weekends.
This weekend it's hard not to back the No. 48 car. JJ has done everything right and charges into the Chase in third place in the standings, 10 points behind Carl Edwards who is in second place. Richmond was a crucial win for Johnson. Those 10 points and the 10-point deduction Edwards got at the beginning of the season is actually a 20-point swing. It's not unreasonable to think that Johnson will win his third race in a row.
Kyle Busch won this race in 2006 but hasn't had a whole lot of great finishes at NHMS. He has one win, three top-fives, and three top-10s with an average finish of 15.7; rather high when compared to Jimmie Johnson's 10.5 average finish or Denny Hamlin's amazing 6.8 average finish.
Speaking of the No. 11 driver, Hamlin's sported four top-five finishes in his last seven races and has led more than 700 laps this season, good enough for fourth best laps-led of all Chase drivers. Hamlin held off Jeff Gordon in last year's spring race at NHMS to win it. He might have to do the same this year.
Pick! Denny Hamlin
Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Sylvania 300 this weekend but here is one that should cash. The No. 48 car took us to the woodshed as Johnson killed both our matchups against the +1.20 'dog Matt Kenseth. Kenseth was never in the race and the Pole sitter Johnson showed why he's the two-time defending Chase Champion. Last weekend Greg Biffle did more than just show up. Biffle started sixth on the grid and finished 14th while I backed Kasey Kahne (-1.15) who finished 19th and never really challenged Biffle. My one unit loss brings my record Over-the-Wall to 13-15 and +.15 units on the season after 26 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. As of deadline Friday no lines had been hung for the Sylvania 300 matchups but if you get a chance to bet against Dale Earnhardt Jr., I would. Winning at NHMS takes synchronicity between crew chief, pit crew and driver. Right now the discord between Junior and Tony Eury Jr. is deafening and perhaps Junior needs a Senior to help him get back to victory lane.
Long Odds Pick
For the next 10 races you'll get the shortest win odds on the 12 Chase drivers. But it does not follow that only one of the 12 Chase drivers will actually win the race. I am backing the only driver to win at New Hampshire and then went on to win the title in 2004. The elder Busch has done well at Loudon in the past, and even back-doored a win at the rain shortened spring race. Kurt has three wins, five top-fives and six top-10 finishes. At this price Kurt Busch is worth a look who knows maybe the Penske Racing Dodge can make it rain again.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (40/1)
Docsports.com
Sylvania 300 Odds and Predictions
Long Odds Pick
For the next 10 races you'll get the shortest win odds on the 12 Chase drivers. But it does not follow that only one of the 12 Chase drivers will actually win the race. I am backing the only driver to win at New Hampshire and then went on to win the title in 2004. The elder Busch has done well at Loudon in the past, and even back-doored a win at the rain shortened spring race. Kurt has three wins, five top-fives and six top-10 finishes. At this price Kurt Busch is worth a look who knows maybe the Penske Racing Dodge can make it rain again.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (40/1)
I actually like this pick and played it myself before reading this.