Sylvania 300 Preview
By Micah Roberts
Let the Chase begin! NASCAR’s 10-race Chase for the Championship begins this week at Loudon, New Hampshire’s one-mile flat track with Jimmie Johnson listed as the 5 to 2 favorite to win it all according to the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book. Johnson’s going for an unprecedented fifth straight title and although he has struggled coming in, this type of format is where Johnson and his team have excelled. When the pressure is on, how can you bet against someone like Johnson?
Well, if the price is right, you can make a case for just about anyone in the Chase. He’s a look at the each of the drivers in the Chase with their listed odds. The odds are based somewhat on existing action on the drivers accumulated over the year, but are more shaded towards what each of these drivers should do during the 10 combined races. Who is hot coming in. Who will do the best on the five 1.5-mile tracks that are in the chase and who will be able to avoid trouble
Jimmie Johnson 5/2: His four DNF’s in 2010 raise caution because Johnson has thrived on gaining quality points even when he doesn’t have a great day. All it takes is one poor finish in the Chase and it could spell good night for anyone, ask Carl Edwards in 2008. His team is at it’s best on the 1.5-mile tracks as well as Martinsville, New Hampshire and Phoenix. It’s hard to bet against him, but let’s see if we can make solid cases for anyone else.
Denny Hamlin 9/2: He starts with a 10 point lead over Johnson on the basis of his six wins this season. If it weren’t for ending a slump at Richmond last week, it would appear that he could be written off as a contender, but all appears well now. He’s run well on all the tracks this season, but now it’s a matter if he can pick up the pace like he had in the middle of the season.
Kyle Busch 5/1: It seems they have been really good and then very mediocre. He’s gone through stretches where he looks to be the best, but is too inconsistent. He also has the weight of being like the Colts used to be in the playoffs, lots of wins, but no success in the playoffs. I can see a few wins, but maintaining 10 straight races of excellence looks too tough for Busch.
Kevin Harvick 6/1: If the Chase is all about consistency, than Harvick is who you want. He leads the series with 11 top-5’s and 17 top-10’s and has been good on every track. His best overall performances this year have been on the 1.5-mile tracks and restrictor-plate racing. Talladega looms large for several drivers as a possible danger spot on the schedule, but for Harvick, he welcomes that race which could be a great spot for separation from the others. Best value on the board!
Tony Stewart 10/1: He’s coming on strong and has looked his best since the beginning of June. If he can improve just a little more on the 1.5-mile tracks, he’ll be a contender because he’s got everything else wrapped up. But I’m not sure he can make a bet on Stewart a tough sell.
Jeff Gordon 12/1: Lots of value from him just because of how good he’s been everywhere. Over the last two season, not many have been better than Gordon on the 1.5-mile tracks. Who cares that he hasn’t won this year. This format is about piling up points and through last week only Harvick had done a better job than Gordon for 26 races. I would be very happy with a Harvick and Gordon ticket in the Chase.
Carl Edwards 12/1: He’s been the most consistent driver since the Daytona firecracker in July. Like Gordon, he has no wins, but hoisting a trophy in the end is all that matters. He’s definitely worth taking a shot with.
Kurt Busch 15/1: He’s won in Atlanta and Texas suggesting that he’ll be good on the five 1.5-mile tracks during the chase, but there seems to be a drop off from this team race to race. I like Busch to win at least one race during the chase, but 15 to 1 won’t draw me in, maybe 25 to 1 though.
Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer 18/1: Each driver is in the same boat and nearly as good as their teammate Kevin Harvick, but over 10 races I see them both being middle of the pack and not making too big a threat.
Greg Biffle (20/1) & Matt Kenseth (40/1): If I could make my bet on who would finish last in the Chase, these would be my guys. Although they have raced much better in the last seven weeks, I cant see it happening.
I chose Denny Hamlin to win at the beginning of the year, but I’d be much more happier at this juncture with a Kevin Harvick ticket. For long shot purposes, I’ll take Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards at 12 to 1 each at lesser units.
As for the New Hampshire race this weekend, look Johnson, Stewart and Gordon to battle for the win. Use the three tracks of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire races as a guide to handicap this week. You’ve got four races of information to sift through. Johnson’s finished in the top-3 in four of those races winning in Loudon in June.
Be sure to check in Saturday for my final practice report which will detail what cars look the based based on all practice sessions.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
3) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
Odds & Ends - New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 27 of 36 (9-19-10)
Track Size: 1.058 miles
Race Length: 317.4 miles (300 laps)
Banking/Corners: Variable at 2 & 7 degrees
Banking/Straights: 1 degree
Driver Rating at New Hampshire
Tony Stewart 114.1
Jeff Gordon 107.9
Jimmie Johnson 107.9
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 99.8
Denny Hamlin 99.8
Mark Martin 95.5
Jeff Burton 94.0
Kurt Busch 93.6
Kevin Harvick 93.0
Ryan Newman 91.2
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at New Hampshire.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec.)
2009 race winner: Mark Martin, 100.753 mph, 9-20-09)
Track qualifying record: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec., 9-20-09)
Track race record: Jeff Burton (117.134 mph, 7-13-97)
Estimated Pit Window: 70-78 laps
The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup
# 22 different drivers have made the Chase. All 12 drivers in this year’s field have made a prior Chase.
# In the 60 Chase races, Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 18 Chase wins. Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are tied for second, with six.
# Champion’s wins during each Chase:
-- 2004: Kurt Busch, one win
-- 2005: Tony Stewart, no wins
-- 2006: Jimmie Johnson, one win
-- 2007: Jimmie Johnson, four wins
-- 2008: Jimmie Johnson, three wins
-- 2009: Jimmie Johnson four wins
Champion’s average finish during each Chase:
-- 2004: Kurt Busch, 8.9
-- 2005: Tony Stewart, 8.7
-- 2006: Jimmie Johnson, 10.8
-- 2007: Jimmie Johnson, 5.0
-- 2008: Jimmie Johnson, 5.7
-- 2009: Jimmie Johnson, 6.8
# Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to make all seven Chases for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
# Three drivers have made six Chases: Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth. Gordon missed in 2005; Stewart in 2006; Kenseth in 2009.
# Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to average a top-10 finish in Chase races (8.4).
# Three drivers have 20 or more top-five finishes during Chase races: Jimmie Johnson (33), Jeff Gordon (26), Carl Edwards (20) and Matt Kenseth (20).
# 12 drivers have more than 20 top-10 finishes during Chase races: Jimmie Johnson (45), Jeff Gordon (41), Carl Edwards (32), Kurt Busch (32), Tony Stewart (31), Kevin Harvick (29), Matt Kenseth (26), Greg Biffle (26), Jeff Burton (26), Mark Martin (24), Denny Hamlin (23) and Kyle Busch (20).
# Jimmie Johnson has the most laps led during the Chase (3,190). Matt Kenseth is second with 1,642.
# Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, two drivers have a Chase Driver Rating of at least 100.0: Jimmie Johnson (110.5) and Jeff Gordon (100.5).
# Jimmie Johnson’s average start during the Chase is 9.0. He has eight poles in the 60 Chase races, second only to Ryan Newman’s nine.
# There have been 12 races won by drivers who did not qualify for the Chase. The last to do so was Jamie McMurray, at Talladega last year.
# Eight qualifying sessions in the Chase have been canceled due to weather.
Driver Highlights - New Hampshire
1 - Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.9
2010 Rundown
# Six wins, 10 top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 15.2
# Led 15 races for 918 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# One win, three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 8.2 in nine races
# Average Running Position of 10.6, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 99.8, fifth-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 124.124 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,063 Laps in the Top 15 (77.4%), ninth-most
# 321 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most
2 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.4
2010 Rundown
# Five wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.5
# Led 18 races for 1,083 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Three wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 9.0 in 17 races
# Average Running Position of 9.4, second-best
# Driver Rating of 107.9, second-best
# 284 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 124.160 mph, fourth-fastest
# 2,830 Laps in the Top 15 (86.7%), second-most
# 369 Quality Passes, third-most
3 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.8
2010 Rundown
# Three wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s
# Average finish of 9.8
# Led 11 races for 230 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.3 in 19 races
# Average Running Position of 13.1, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.0, ninth-best
# 130 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.928 mph, ninth-fastest
# 2,078 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6%), eighth-most
4 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.4
2010 Rundown
# Three wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 12.5
# Led 14 races for 978 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# One win, four top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 15.2 in 11 races
# Average Running Position of 14.8, 15th-best
# Driver Rating of 91.1, 11th-best
# 110 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 550 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
# 1,903 Laps in the Top 15 (58.3%), 10th-most
# 284 Quality Passes, eighth-most
5 - Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.1
2010 Rundown
# Two wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 14.4
# Led 14 races for 817 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Three wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.7 in 19 races
# Average Running Position of 12.9, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.6, eighth-best
# 122 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 124.007 mph, seventh-fastest
# 2,245 Laps in the Top 15 (68.7%), seventh-most
# 349 Quality Passes, fourth-most
6 - Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.7
2010 Rundown
# One win, seven top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 13.0
# Led 15 races for 332 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Two wins, 12 top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.9 in 23 races
# Average Running Position of 9.7, third-best
# Series-best Driver Rating of 114.1
# Series-high 305 Fastest Laps Run
# 549 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 124.439 mph
# 2,578 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), third-most
7 - Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 86.6
2010 Rundown
# One win, five top fives, 14 top 10s
# Average finish of 15.3
# Led 9 races for 258 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# One win, four top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 17.4 in 16 races
# Average Running Position of 15.4, 16th-best
# Driver Rating of 86.8, 14th-best
# 569 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
# 257 Quality Passes, 11th-most
8 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 102.7
2010 Rundown
# 10 top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.1
# Led 14 races for 813 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Three wins, 14 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 11.2 in 31 races
# Series-best Average Running Position of 7.3
# Driver Rating of 107.9, second-best
# 264 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 124.420 mph, second-fastest
# Series-high 2,961 Laps in the Top 15 (90.7%)
9 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 88.9
2010 Rundown
# Six top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 11.9
# Led 6 races for 133 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Two top fives, two top 10s
# Average finish of 14.8 in 12 races
# Average Running Position of 14.8, 14th-best
# Driver Rating of 85.9, 16th-best
# 102 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
# 501 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
10 - Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 99.3
2010 Rundown
# Five top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.7
# Led 12 races for 390 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.5 in 31 races
# Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 94.0, seventh-best
# 116 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
# 539 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 123.895 mph, 10th-fastest
# 2,276 Laps in the Top 15 (69.7%), sixth-most
# 269 Quality Passes, 10th-most
11 - Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.4
2010 Rundown
# Five top fives, 10 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.6
# Led 6 races for 35 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# Five top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.7 in 21 races
# Average Running Position of 17.1, 17th-best
# Driver Rating of 79.6, 19th-best
# Series-high 630 Green Flag Passes
12 - Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 91.4
2010 Rundown
# Four top fives, 14 top 10s
# Average finish of 14.7
# Led 11 races for 163 laps
New Hampshire Motor Speedway Outlook:
# One win, one top five, three top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 17.8 in nine races
# Average Running Position of 14.2, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 90.7, 12th-best
# 121 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 124.002 mph, eighth-fastest
# 1,725 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7%), 12th-most
# 251 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Driver Handicaps: New Hampshire
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for Sunday's Lenox Sylvania 300. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 300-lap event.
Who's HOT at New Hampshire
• June winner Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with a 5.1 average finish in the seven races with the COT.
• Denny Hamlin leads all drivers in overall average finish at 8.2.
• Tony Stewart has one win and seven finishes of eighth or better in his last 11 starts.
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in top fives (14), top 10s (17) and laps led (1,205).
• Kurt Busch has a 3.8 average finish in last five starts.
• Jeff Burton leads all drivers with four wins.
Keep an Eye on at New Hampshire
• Juan Pablo Montoya has won the past two poles at New Hampshire and led 105 laps in this event last year.
• Kasey Kahne started second and led 110 laps in June at New Hampshire before the engine expired.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in his last two New Hampshire starts.
• Kyle Busch is fourth-best in average running position and laps in top 15 in the past 11 races at New Hampshire.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. Will pilot the same car that he scored an eighth-place finish with in June at New Hampshire.
• Clint Bowyer kicked off the 2007 Chase by leading 222 laps en route to the win at New Hampshire.
• Kevin Harvick is coming off his 10th top 10 in 19 starts at New Hampshire.
• Greg Biffle has finished in the top 10 in the last two September New Hampshire races, including a win in 2008.
• Mark Martin, who is the defending race winner, has posted a 12.0 average finish in three starts at New Hampshire with Hendrick Motorsports.
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to New Hampshire unless noted)
1. Denny Hamlin: Leads all drivers with a 8.2 average finish; Won the 2007 July race after leading 46 laps; Fourth-best average finish (9.1) in the seven races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 282) in the Sylvania 300.
2. Jimmie Johnson: Coming off third win in 17 starts; Victory extended top 10 streak to seven races; 5.1 average finish in the seven races with the COT is best among all drivers; Second in laps led with the COT with 224; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 540) that he led nine laps with en route to the win in June.
3. Kevin Harvick: 17.1 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Fifth-place finish in June was first top five with the COT and 10th top 10 in 19 overall starts; Won the 2006 September race from the pole; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 322) Sylvania 300.
4. Kyle Busch: 13.9 average finish in the seven races with the COT; 7.7 average finish in the last three races; Led 46 laps and finished 11th in June; Won the 2006 June race with Hendrick Motorsports; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 283) in the Sylvania 300.
5. Kurt Busch: 3.8 average finish in last five starts; Scored third win in the 2008 June race; Has combined to lead 68 laps in last three starts; Tested at Milwaukee in preparation for Sunday's race; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 737) in the Sylvania 300.
6. Tony Stewart: Third-best average finish (8.1) in the seven races with the COT; Started 25th and finished second in June; 7.0 average finish in three starts with Stewart-Haas; 266 laps led is best among all drivers with the COT; Scored two wins and 12 top 10s in 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 587) that he raced in June.
7. Greg Biffle: Winner of the 2008 September race; Victory was one of six top 10s in 16 starts; 15.6 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 700) in the Sylvania 300.
8. Jeff Gordon: Second-best average finish (7.1) in the seven races with the COT; Coming off 14th top five in 31 starts; Last of three wins came in this event in 1998; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 616) in the Sylvania 300; This chassis was tested at The Milwaukee Mile.
9. Carl Edwards: 15.1 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Led 61 laps and finished third in the 2008 September race; Best finish (second) came in the 2006 July race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 647) that he finished 25th with at New Hampshire in June.
10. Jeff Burton: Four-time winner; Led every lap in this event in 2000; All wins came with Roush Racing; 12.7 average finish in 12 starts with Richard Childress Racing; Led 89 laps en route to a 12th-place finish in June; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 319) Sylvania 300.
11. Matt Kenseth: Has yet to finish in the top 15 in last five starts; Last top 10 came in this event in 2007; 19.4 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 704) in the Sylvania 300.
12. Clint Bowyer: Coming off third top 10 in nine starts; Won the 2007 September event after leading 222 laps; Finished 10th in this event last year; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 320) in the Sylvania 300.
13. Ryan Newman: Coming off 11th top 10 in 17 starts; Finished 29, seventh and sixth, respectively, in three starts with Stewart-Haas; Captured two wins and nine top 10s in previous 14 track starts with Penske Racing.
14. Jamie McMurray: No top 10s in last 11 starts; Finished 18th in June in first track start in an Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1008) that he races in June at New
Hampshire.
15. Mark Martin: Defending race winner; 12.0 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Posted 13 top 10s in previous 24 starts with Roush Racing; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 588) that he finished 21st with in June.
16. Juan Pablo Montoya: Winner of the last two poles; Led 105 laps and finished third in this event last year; Finish is only top 10 in seven starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 907) that finished 34th in June after an on-track incident.
17. David Reutimann: 18.4 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Fourth-place finish in the 2009 June race is only top 10; 10.3 average finish in last three starts.
18. Kasey Kahne: Started second and led 110 laps in June before the engine expired; Last of three top 10s came in the 2009 June race; 24.3 average finish in the seven races with the COT.
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 17.0 average finish in five starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Eighth-place finish in June was ninth top 10 in 22 starts; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 589) that he raced in June at New Hampshire.
20. Martin Truex Jr: Finished 22nd in June in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing; Posted four straight top 10s in 2007 and 2008 with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; 13.9 average finish in the seven races with the COT.
Practice Notes - New Hampshire
By Micah Roberts
Top 8 Driver Rating Following All New Hampshire Practice Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3
1 Tony Stewart 12/1 1st 3rd 1st 4th
Notes: Two-time NHMS winner; the last in 2005. Using runner-up chassis from June race.
2 Jimmie Johnson 4/1 7th 25th 8th 3rd
Notes: Three wins in 17 starts with a 9.0 average finish; using winning chassis from June.
3 Clint Bowyer 12/1 20th 2nd 5th 6th
Notes: 2007 fall winner had fastest average speeds in both final practices; new car this week.
4 Denny Hamlin 5/1 10th 22nd 16th 7th
Notes: 2007 spring winner has a track best 8.2 average finish in nine starts; new car this week.
5 Jamie McMurray 30/1 12th 4th 3rd 1st
Notes: Only one top-five finish in 15 career starts; best 10-lap average during second practice.
6 Jeff Gordon 12/1 26th 17th 27th 2nd
Notes: Three wins in 31 starts with 12.1 average finish; finished fourth in June race. New car this week.
7 Kurt Busch 12/1 18th 12th 6th 19th
Notes: Three-time winner at NHMS with five straight top-six finishes. Using new chassis this week.
8 Juan Pablo Montoya 20/1 21st 5th 10th 5th
Notes: Career best finish of third in this race last year; using same chassis from June race.
Note: New Hampshire chassis set-up is similar to Richmond and Phoenix; those who do well on one should do the same on the others.