Toyota/Save Mart 350 Betting News and Notes

Sonoma - Driver Tale of the Tape

AJ Allmendinger 8/1 (No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 20.875, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.814, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.5, eighth-best
· 29 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.952, third-fastest
· 454 Laps in the Top 15 (51.2), 11th-most
· 198 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Clint Bowyer 8/1 (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 11.455, second-best
· Average Running Position of 15.648, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.2, third-best
· 40 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.991, second-fastest
· 671 Laps in the Top 15 (55.1), ninth-most
· 264 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kurt Busch 7/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, seven top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.750, third-best
· Average Running Position of 9.709, series-best
· Driver Rating of 107.8, series-best
· 82 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 90.161, series-fastest
· 1054 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4), series-most
· 298 Quality Passes, third-most

Kyle Busch 5/1 (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, two top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 18.083, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.408, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.1, fourth-best
· 55 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.780, 10th-fastest
· 738 Laps in the Top 15 (55.6), eighth-most
· 215 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick 7/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 15.833, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 14.163, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.9, seventh-best
· 48 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.853, sixth-fastest
· 829 Laps in the Top 15 (62.5), fourth-most
· 271 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson 8/1 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, four top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 10.833, series-best
· Average Running Position of 11.487, second-best
· Driver Rating of 99.9, second-best
· 73 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.916, fifth-fastest
· 1013 Laps in the Top 15 (76.3), third-most
· 340 Quality Passes, series-most

Kasey Kahne 40/1 (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, two top fives, six top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.333, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.373, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 86.9, 10th-best
· 45 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.807, eighth-fastest
· 786 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2), sixth-most
· 311 Quality Passes, second-most

Kyle Larson 12/1 (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top 15s
· Average finish of 18.333, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 11.591, third-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, fifth-best
· 8 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.642, 12th-fastest
· 255 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3), second-most
· 66 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Joey Logano 18/1 (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.875, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.017, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 83.4, 13th-best
· 9 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.585, 13th-fastest
· 508 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4), seventh-most
· 162 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jamie McMurray 25/1 (No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, two top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 17.167, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.593, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 85.5, 11th-best
· 27 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.832, seventh-fastest
· 605 Laps in the Top 15 (45.6), 13th-most
· 158 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Ryan Newman 50/1 (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 13.083, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.919, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, sixth-best
· 18 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.790, ninth-fastest
· 815 Laps in the Top 15 (61.4), fifth-most
· 260 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Martin Truex Jr 9/2 (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, two top fives, three top 10s
· Average finish of 19.545, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.259, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.0, ninth-best
· 65 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 89.928, fourth-fastest
· 626 Laps in the Top 15 (51.4), 10th-most
· 219 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Toyota/Save Mart 350
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

My favorite type of racing has always been on a road course whether asphalt or dirt watching BMX, go-karts, motorcycles, Formula One, Indy Cars or NASCAR's stock cars. Nothing against racing on ovals, but making 1,000 left turns while going in circles can get a little repetitive. And to me, the true mark of a great driver is how they perform on the roads when they have to also make right turns.

The two-race road course season starts Sunday at Sonoma Raceway located within the scenic wine country in northern California. There's nothing quite like it on the tour just because of the scenery and the drivers all take advantage of their surroundings.

“It’s a fun weekend for everyone in the garage area,” said 2012 Sonoma winner Clint Bowyer. “It’s almost like vacation, it really is for everybody — the wives, the girlfriends – they all go on wine tours, we get done with practice and have our hands full with a complete mess on our hands. Nonetheless, everybody is having a lot of fun.”

Yes, spas, wineries and total tranquility despite these big heavy stock cars making some serious noise over the weekend. It's beautiful

So let's do the double date thing. Get the girls, grab a blanket, fill the picnic basket up with a variety of nuts and cheeses and I'll grab the bottles of wine and get us entry into the track. We'll find a nice spot on top one of Sonoma Raceway's rolling hills and we'll watch NASCAR in a way like you've never imagined stock car racing could be viewed.

Sunday's race at Sonoma's 1.99-mile, 10-turn course will have a different feel to it because there are no more true road aces in the series. There are some pretty good road drivers, but the road racing talent is definitely weaker than its been in the past. It's a changing of an era and new guys will have to step up. We no longer have Marcos Ambrose and Juan Pablo Montoya in the series and we saw the last of Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon last season who combined to win 17 road course races. Even the retired Carl Edwards had a road course win and was getting to close ace status.

What we're left with now is a bunch of young guns with not a lot of experience on the roads. Kyle Busch has four road course wins making him the active leader. No other driver has more than one win between Sonoma and Watkins Glen. That absolutely blows my mind.

I'm combining the two road courses just as a reference to show just how much talent the series has lost over the past four seasons. But the reality is that Sonoma and Watkins Glen are as different as Martinsville and Talladega are among the left-turn only tracks. Watkins Glen has long straights and is much faster while Sonoma is the more technical course with rolling hills and 160 feet of elevation changes. Edwards won the pole at both tracks last season and the speed disparities give a great example of the track differences. Sonoma's pole speed was 95.7 mph while Watkins Glen was 126.5 mph.

Stewart won this race last season for the final win of his career and Kyle Busch won his second Sonoma race in 2015. In 2014 Edwards won this race, and he's gone. Only six active drivers have ever won at Sonoma and I'm looking at two of those as top contenders and I'm looking for two of the older dogs in the series to try and get their first victory there. Three of those four drivers come from the Stewart Haas Racing.

Clint Bowyer, who took over Stewart's car, has an 11.5 average finish over his career which is the best among active drivers.

“Not in a million years would I have imagined this success,” Bowyer said of Sonoma. “After the first couple stabs at it, I was relatively good out there. I struggled a lot at Watkins Glen but always was able to find pretty good speed and get settled in and get comfortable at Sonoma. It has been good to me, it’s a fun racetrack. It’s a short track of road-course racing and it just kind of fits my driving style.”

I was hoping for at least 12/1 odds with Bowyer, but it doesn't appear like it will happen.

Kevin Harvick has a career-best second-place at Sonoma in 2007, but has finished sixth and fourth in the past two races there. Kurt Busch won at Sonoma in 2011 and was second behind his brother in 2015.

I like those three guys to be the new guard in road racing and I also like Denny Hamlin, who burst onto the road scene loudly last year by finishing second to Stewart at Sonoma and winning at Watkins Glen. He actually had the Sonoma race won but blew it on the last turn. Hard to believe that Joe Gibbs Racing hasn't won through 15 races, but this might be the spot with Kyle Busch being the favorite to win. Hamlin probably has the best value on the Westgate SuperBook's board at 18/1 odds.

A.J. Allmendinger has established that he deserves to be considered one of the best road racers, but there's no way I'm taking only 8/1 on him in that No. 47. He has a Watkins Glen win under his belt for his only career win, but in eight career starts at Sonoma he has a 20.9 average finish with no top-fives. No thanks.

A few decades ago we used to see some really high class road course ringers like Ron Fellows and Boris Said take over regular cars for the road races to get the team more points, and more cash prizes by finishing well. We don't see it as much any more, but the ringer to take notice of this weekend is Billy Johnson who will take over Richard Petty Racing's famed No. 43. Johnson, from San Clemente, CA, had three wins in the Rolex Grand-Am Sports Car Series.

“We are so excited about Billy Johnson making his Cup debut," said Dave Pericak, global director for Ford Performance. "He drove great for us in Le Mans this past weekend, has been a champion for us in the past in the GT350, and he’s been one of our development drivers for a while,” .

Johnson has great road racing instincts and should be expected to fare well in this new era of road racers. The SuperBook is giving him plenty of respect at 60/1 odds. Look at those odds and then consider that the fourth leg of Stewart Haas Racing, Danica Patrick, is 500/1 to win.

Another driver I'll be keeping an eye on during Friday's practice will be rookie Daniel Suarez, who is listed at 100/1 odds. Suarez began his career karting on courses and also had plenty of success on the roads from his days in NASCAR's Mexico Series. He took over the Edwards car, which has been amazing on roads the past few years.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #14 Clint Bowyer (8/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (18/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
4) #41 Kurt Busch (7/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1)

Toyota Save Mart 350 Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

The first of two road course races scheduled for the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season will take place on Sunday when the drivers fire up their engines at Sonoma Raceway in California for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. This is the 16th race of the 26-race regular season. The second, and last, road course race will be August 6 at Watkins Glen in New York. These road course races aren’t liked by a lot of drivers, so we’ll definitely see some interesting odds for this one.

Fifteen races plus a couple of duels are in the books for the season. The top four in the standings aren’t really a huge surprise at this point, but we have seen some fascinating finishes and some stunning placement in the rankings throughout the season. The scoring changes to separate the races into stages has certainly had an impact and so has a lack of consistency from some of the sport’s better-known names.

Through 15 races and a duel for each driver, Kyle Larson maintains his stranglehold on the top spot with a five-point lead over Martin Truex Jr. Larson has 640 points and Truex has 635 points. No other driver has more than 510 points. That puts Kyle Busch, who hasn’t won a race yet this season, in a very distant third. Kevin Harvick, who also hasn’t won a race yet this season, is fourth with 508 points. Chase Elliott is fifth with 478 points.

Brad Keselowski comes next with 476 points, followed by Jamie McMurray with 450 points, Jimmie Johnson with 449 points, Denny Hamlin with 430 points, and then Joey Logano with 398 points. Things are going to be a little bit crazy the rest of the way. Twelve different drivers have already won a race and 16 drivers will qualify via points or wins for the playoff. Ryan Newman and Austin Dillon each have wins and they are outside of the top 16 in points. Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. rank 13th, 14th, and 15th, respectively, and they all have wins. It could be a frustrating end of the year for some very strong drivers that get shut out of the postseason.

This is one of those races where something crazy could happen and another playoff spot could be taken. In fact, that’s what happened last year when Tony Stewart won this race and qualified for the playoff in his final season. These will be 110 important laps on Sunday.

The race favorite at 5Dimes Sportsbook is Kyle Busch at +450. Busch won this race back in 2015 and also won in 2008. He’s one of the few notable drivers that seems to enjoy running on road courses. Busch has really turned it on of late. After a slow start to the season, Busch has three stage wins and three top-five finishes over his last six races. He’s also led the most laps twice, once at Talladega and once at Pocono. He doesn’t mind racing in close quarters and that’s what happens on these road courses. It’s easy to see why he’s the favorite. Busch was seventh last year after his win in 2015. He hasn’t had much success in those years between wins, but he tends to run pretty well at Watkins Glen, too.

Martin Truex Jr. checks in at +550 this weekend. Truex is also a past winner in this race with a victory back in 2013. He finished fifth last year to partially erase the memories of a couple of bad outcomes in 2015 and 2014. Truex isn’t as accomplished at Watkins Glen as Busch is, but these two are Toyota teammates and these Toyota Camrys seem to handle well in tight quarters. Truex is also second in points and has eight top-10 finishes in his last nine races, including a win and six stage wins.

The one guy that can throw a wrench in everything is AJ Allmendinger. Aside from Watkins Glen, you won’t see any other track where Allmendinger is listed at +700, but that’s the case with this road course. Allmendinger hasn’t won here in the past and only has three top-10 finishes this season, but the 35-year-old California native’s lone Cup Series win came at Watkins Glen. The interesting thing is that Allmendinger hasn’t finished higher than 14th at Sonoma since 2012. It seems like perception and reality aren’t in line with his road course prices at Sonoma. He’s got much better results at Watkins Glen.

If you’re looking for another guy that can make some noise and ruin the weekend for some teams, check out Clint Bowyer at +800. Again, you won’t find Bowyer at a price like this very often, but he won this race back in 2012. Bowyer has two other top-five finishes here over the last four years. He’s quietly had a solid season and sits 12th in points, but he only has one top-10 in his last seven starts. He likes road courses and has had as much success as any active driver at Sonoma.

Prices are all over the map for this race. Jimmie Johnson has a win here and is +750. Good drivers like Joey Logano (+2000) and Brad Keselowski (+2750) have lofty prices because road courses just don’t seem to work out as well for them. This is a race where limited exposure is the best bet that you can make, so pick one or two guys and hope for the best.

Sonoma Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingome.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.

Who's HOT at Sonoma

• Kyle Busch is the only active driver with multiple wins.
• Kurt Busch, the 2011 winner, leads all drivers with a 6.2 average finish in the last five races.
• Kasey Kahne is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 5.0 average finish in his last two starts.
• Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top five in each of the last two races.
• Jimmie Johnson has finished ninth or better in seven of his last eight starts, including a win in 2010.
• Clint Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts, including a win in 2012.

Keep an Eye On at Sonoma

• Denny Hamlin led 33 laps in this event last year - same tire combination will be used again this weekend - and finished second.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top five in two of his last four Sonoma starts, including a win in 2013.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has posted a 7.0 average finish in his last three Sonoma starts, which leads all drivers in that span.
• Jamie McMurray is a three-time Sonoma pole winner and has posted an average finish of 10.7 in the last three races.
• AJ Allmendinger has started on the front row and combined to lead 56 laps in the last three Sonoma races. His best finish in that span came last year, in 14th.
• Along with Harvick, Ryan Blaney and Daniel Suarez will compete in the K&N Pro Series West race for extra track time.
• Last week's winner Kyle Larson has a top 10 Driver Rating (90.0) in his three Sonoma starts.
• Brad Keselowski (9.0) and Ryan Newman (12.0) each had a top 10 ranked average finish in both road course races last season. Newman has finished in the top 10 in the last two Sonoma races.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Clint Bowyer
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Joey Logano
Tyler Burnett: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Joey Logano

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Sonoma

Kurt Busch has finished 12th or better in his three Sonoma starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. He won this event in 2011 (Team Penske) and ranks first among all drivers in laps led with 197. Busch has a 7.2 average finish in six road course starts (Sonoma and Watkins Glen) with SHR and has finished in the top 10 in four of them. This weekend, Busch will pilot a new car (chassis No. 1018) in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Jimmie Johnson finished 13th last year to snap a streak of consecutive top 10s at Sonoma at seven. He won this event in 2010 and has led a race-high number of laps in that race (55) and in 2015 (45). Johnson has finished in the top 10 seven times in the last 10 road course races (Sonoma and Watkins Glen).

Kasey Kahne is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in all of the last four races at Sonoma. Kahne, who has a 7.2 average finish in that span, won in 2009 at Sonoma when he drove for Richard Petty Motorsports. Kahne's only top 10s at road courses with Hendrick Motorsports are his four top 10s at Sonoma.

Joey Logano is tied for the best average finish (4.0) in the last two races at Sonoma, finishing in the top five in both. Logano has finished sixth or better in the last five road course races, including a win at Watkins Glen in 2015. His 3.4 average finish in the last five road course events ranks first among all drivers.

Kevin Harvick has finished sixth or better in his last two Sonoma starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick, who will also compete in this weekend's K&N Pro Series West race, has finished seventh or better in four of the last five road course events.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads all drivers with a 7.0 average finish in the last three races at Sonoma. Earnhardt, who has yet to lead a lap in the last 12 Sonoma races, has finished 11th or better in his last five road course starts.

Clint Bowyer finished 40th last year with HScott Motorsports because of an electrical issue to snap a streak of five consecutive top 10s at Sonoma. Bowyer won this event in 2012 with Michael Waltrip Racing after leading 71 laps. In the last 10 road course races, Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in seven times.

Ryan Newman has posted a 9.3 average finish in his last three Sonoma starts with Richard Childress Racing. He's finished in the top 10 in the last two events, which are his only top 10s in the last 10 road course events (Sonoma and Watkins Glen).

Paul Menard has finished 16th or better in his last four Sonoma starts, including a fifth-place run in 2014. That finish is Menard's only top 10 in the last 10 road course events (Sonoma and Watkins Glen) where he has a 16.4 average finish in that span.

Jamie McMurray is a three-time Sonoma pole winner and his last of two top 10s came in 2014 in fourth. McMurray is coming off his second top 10 in the last 10 road course events, finishing eighth at Watkins Glen.

Martin Truex Jr. finished fifth last year for his second top five dating back to his win in 2013 with Michael Waltrip Racing. Last year, Truex finished in the top 10 in both road course events with Furniture Row Racing - one of only four drivers to do so.

Kyle Busch is the only active multiple race winner at Sonoma. He's finished in the top 10 in his last two starts, including his second win in 2015. Busch is one of two drivers that have finished in the top 10 in the last four course races (Sonoma and Watkins Glen).

Brad Keselowski scored his only top 10 at Sonoma in 2011. Keselowski has finished in the top 20 in the last four road course events with two top 10s at Watkins Glen.

Kyle Larson finished 12th last season for his best finish in three Sonoma starts. Larson, who has started in the top five in all of his starts, has a 16.7 average finish in six overall road course starts (Sonoma and Watkins Glen).

Austin Dillon has posted an 18.7 average finish in three starts at Sonoma with his best finish being a pair of 17th-place runs. He's yet to post a top 10 in his six road course starts (Sonoma and Watkins Glen).

Toyota/Save Mart 350 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sonoma for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on Sunday. This was a very exciting race last year, as Tony Stewart ended up winning with a time of 2:42:13. That victory would ultimately go down as the final win of Stewart’s phenomenal career. This race is, however, a very unique one. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 is one of only two road course events, which means this isn’t the traditional oval course you’ll see elsewhere. That means that a whole different skill set comes into play here. One guy that never had trouble adjusting to the course change was Jeff Gordon. Gordon won this race five times in his career, which is more than any other driver in history. Kyle Busch, meanwhile, has won this thing twice. That is more than any other active driver that will be driving on Sunday. The team that has experienced the most success at Sonoma Raceway is Hendrick Motorsports. They have won six races here, but that is in large part due to Gordon’s ability. As for the manufacturer that has had the most success here, that would be Chevrolet. Chevy drivers have won this race 11 times, and the next closest is Ford with seven. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the best values for this weekend’s race:

Martin Truex Jr. (5-to-1) - Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite to win this race on Sunday, but his 5-to-1 odds are still worth taking here. Truex Jr. knows what it takes to get the job done on this road course, as he came away with the win here back in 2013. He finished in 2:51:20, and he also came in fifth here last year. He is as safe a bet as any to be competing down the stretch, and that is value that is hard to pass up on. Truex Jr. has also finished inside the top-10 at six races at Watkins Glen, which is the only other road course.

Kyle Busch (11-to-2) - As previously mentioned, Kyle Busch has won this race more than anybody else that will be out on the track on Sunday. Busch has won as recently as 2015, and he also won it way back in 2008. He also happens to have two victories at Watkins Glen. That proves that Busch is one of the best road course drivers in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, and you can safely assume that he’ll be looking forward to this race. And his odds are still good enough to help with a major payday.

Joey Logano (18-to-1) - Joey Logano is very good on road courses, and it’s honestly very surprising to see him receiving odds as favorable as 18-to-1. Logano is coming off of a third place finish a week ago, and will be confident when he’s out on the track for this one. He finished in third in Sonoma last year, and that followed up a fifth place finish two years ago. He also happens to have a victory and four other top-10 finishes at Watkins Glen. He’s definitely going to give himself a shot in this one.

Austin Dillon (100-to-1) - Austin Dillon has already won a race this season, so it’s a bit surprising that he’s getting 100-to-1 odds in this race. Obviously things are a lot different on a road course, but this is a dark horse pick and you’d be taking a chance on Dillon’s talent. It’s also not like he has been terrible on road courses in his career. Dillon has two top-20 finishes in this race, so it just might be time for him to take a next step.