Toyota Save Mart/350 News and Notes

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview
By Micah Roberts

After 15 races of NASCAR Sprint Cup racing where the cuisine and beverage of choice for fans at the track is a giant turkey leg and tall-boy Budweiser, we go to the serene surroundings of Sonoma County where cheese, crackers, and wine stuffed in picnic baskets along the rolling hills can be found with Northern Californian race fans. It truly is a different scene and it’s very appropriate that is such a vastly different type of setting also has the racing be about as different, or at least different from 34 of the 36 scheduled races.

Only twice year do NASCAR fans get to see racing on road courses where the big bulky stock cars traverse through left and right turns in a racing style that the rest of world can relate to, once at Sonoma, and the other at Watkins Glen in early August. Because the racing is so different from the constant left turns of the weekly ovals, a few drivers really stand out from others just because of their past history.

The drivers who grew up through the ranks of stock car racing on ovals dread the two races a year, while others who had go-kart and open-wheel racing experience before jumping into stock cars thrive on it. Entering and exiting turns and maximum speed with minimal breaking is the key to success on the road courses and while it may not be genetically proven that some are better from birth, history has shown that those with the early experience from a young age do better than those that don’t.

Drivers like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, and Robby Gordon all use their past experience and excel big time for these races while others like Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, and Matt Kenseth all race like they can’t for next week to arrive.

At the beginning of the year, the NASCAR Nation was complaining non-stop about Jimmie Johnson winning every week as he took three of the first races. Since then, Denny Hamlin has gone on to win five of the last 10 races with Kyle and Kurt Busch combining to win three or the other 10 prompting the boo-birds to heckle from around the country again.

I don’t get it, do the fans want no one to win, or do they just want someone new to win every week, or is it just a matter of 50% of the NASCAR Nation being Dale Earnhardt fans who haven’t seen him win in the last two years? It’s probably a combination of all of the above.

Hamlin and the Busch brothers will be an interesting look this week because they have all had some success on the road courses and all three are running better than everyone else right now.

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book installed Tony Stewart as the 9/2 favorite to win this weeks Toyota-Save Mart 350 at Infineon Raceway. This is the second straight year that Stewart has been listed as the favorite on the Sonoma road course after Jeff Gordon occupied the top slot for 11 straight years thanks to his five career wins on the track.

Stewart is a two-time winner at Sonoma and also has five other wins on NASCAR’s other road course at Watkins Glen. The crown that Jeff Gordon proudly wore as NASCAR’s best road course driver has been passed on to Stewart. Gordon’s are still listed low and respectful at 5/1, but Gordon admittedly has said that his team no longer spends the time and energy they once did for the road course races because it only represents two races a year and it’s reflected at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen. His skills are still there and he’s hungry for a win, so if he gets in on the right pit sequence, he could be a contender once again.

Tony Stewart is searching for his first win this season and also battling to cement his place within the top-12 in the Chase for Championship. The two road courses give Stewart an edge over all the other fringe drivers that are borderline at making it.

A driver, like Stewart, who can make up some serious ground in points both this week and at Watkins Glen is Juan Pablo Montoya. Unlike Stewart, Montoya isn’t within the top-12 at the moment. In fact, he’s barely in the top-20 -- 189 points behind Mark Martin for the 12th and final position with 11 races to go. He is a long shot to make it, but he and his team knows that their advantage over everyone else lies within the two road courses and then maybe Indianapolis and Pocono. This week is an absolute must quality finish for Montoya, as in a top-3 finish for him to utilize and gain ground from a road course.

Listed at 5/1 along with Gordon is 2008 Sonoma winner Kyle Busch, who also won the same year at Watkins Glen. 2007 Sonoma winner, and master International road course driver, Juan Pablo Montoya, is listed at 8/1 with Australian Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose finished third in last years race.

Because the track is so technical, many teams bring in road racing specialists to compete. Ron Fellows and Boris Said have been the best hired guns over the years. Fellows won’t be racing this week, but Said is listed at 30/1. Team Red Bull has brought in Mattias Ekstrom to handle their No. 83 entry and he is listed at 30/1 as well.

Robby Gordon won at Sonoma in 2003 and has two entries this week with the other driven by P.J. Jones. Gordon is listed at 25/1 and Jones is 200/1.

Mark Martin has four career road course wins, including his 1997 Sonoma win, and is listed at 50/1. Martin once wore the road racing crown as NASCAR’s best before passing it on to Gordon, who then passed it off to Stewart. Martin’s last top-five finish at Sonoma came in 2000 with third-place.

TOP-5 Finish Prediction

1) #14 Tony Stewart (9/2)
2) #42 Juan Pablo Montoya (8/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (5/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)

Driver Handicaps: Infineon
Racingone.com

SONOMA, Calif. - This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Infineon Raceway for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 110-lap event.

Who's HOT at Infineon
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with five wins.
• Juan Pablo Montoya, winner of the 2007 race, leads all drivers with a 4.3 average finish.
• Tony Stewart has two wins and seven top 10s in 11 starts.
• Kasey Kahne scored his first top 10 last season after leading 37 laps en route to a win.
• Clint Bowyer has finished eighth or better in the last three races.
• 2008 winner Kyle Busch has led the most laps (88) in the three races with the COT.
• Mark Martin has one win and 13 top 10s in 19 starts.

Keep an Eye on at Infineon
• 2003 winner Robby Gordon had another good run in 2007, but ran out of fuel and finished in the 16th position.
• Boris Said, Jan Magnussen and Mattias Ekström are among the road course experts entered in the race.
• Marcos Ambrose finished third in this event last year.
• Ryan Newman has the third-best average running position in the last five races at Infineon.
• Kurt Busch has the fourth-best driver rating over the past five races at Infineon.
• Jeff Burton has completed 352 laps in the top 15 in the last five races at Infineon.
• Denny Hamlin led 33 laps and finished fifth last year at Infineon.
• Jamie McMurray has led 30 laps with the COT at Infineon.
• Kevin Harvick, who has won at Infineon in the NASCAR West and Southwest Series, finished second in the first COT race at the track in 2007.

Road Course Performers
Tony Stewart has competed in 22 road course events, and his 7.3 average finish tops all drivers. Jeff Gordon, who has a 12.1 average finish, leads all drivers in road course wins (9) and laps led (664) in 34 starts. Mark Martin (9.4), Juan Pablo Montoya (10.3), Denny Hamlin (10.5), Clint Bowyer (11.8), Marcos Ambrose (12.5), Carl Edwards (12.8), Kyle Busch (13.6) and Ryan Newman (13.6) are the only other drivers that have an average finish of 15.0 or better on the road courses - Infineon Raceway and Watkins Glen International.

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Infineon Raceway unless noted)

1. Kevin Harvick: 20.3 average finish in the three races with the COT; Best finish (second) came in the 2007 race; Finish was second top 10 in nine starts; Will race the same car (chassis No. 241) that finished 29th and 35th, respectively, in both road course events in 2009.

2. Kyle Busch: Fifth-best average finish (10.3) in the three races with the COT; Won the 2008 race after leading 78 laps; 88 laps led with the COT is most among all drivers; 22nd-place finish in 2009 dropped average finish in five starts to 16.4; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 240) that most recently finished fourth at Watkins Glen in 2009.

3. Denny Hamlin: 14.0 average finish in the three races with the COT; Led 33 laps and finished a best third last year; Finish was second top 10 in four starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 241) that finished in the top 10 in both road course events in 2009.

4. Kurt Busch: 18.5 average finish in four starts with Penske Racing; Fifth-place finish from the pole in 2007 is best with the team; Posted best finish in the three races with the COT last season in 15th; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 722) that was tested at Virginia International Raceway.

5. Matt Kenseth: 20.0 average finish in the three races with the COT; Eighth-place finish in 2008 is only top 10 in 10 starts; Has yet to lead a lap in 10 starts.

6. Jimmie Johnson: Sixth-best average finish (12.0) in the three races with the COT; Coming off best finish (fourth) in eight starts; Led 27 laps in the 2008 race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 543) that finished 12th last year at Watkins Glen.

7. Jeff Gordon: Leads all drivers with five wins; Last win came in 2006; Fourth-best average finish (6.3) in the three races with the COT; Has yet to lead a lap with the COT; Started 13th and finished ninth last year.

8. Jeff Burton: 16.7 average finish in the three races with the COT; Best finish in five starts with Richard Childress Racing came in 2007 in third; Has five top 10s and three laps led in 16 overall starts; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 245) in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

9. Greg Biffle: 14.7 average finish in the three races with the COT; Best finish came in 2006 in fourth; Finish was one of two top 10s in seven starts; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 659) in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

10. Carl Edwards: Seventh-best average finish (13.3) in the three races with the COT; Last of two top 10s came in 2008 in ninth; 16.8 overall average finish in five starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 656) that finished third at Watkins Glen last year.

11. Tony Stewart: Two-time winner; Last win came in 2005; Third-best average finish (6.0) in the three races with the COT; Best average finish (9.3) among all drivers with five or more starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 546) that led 11 laps and finished second last year at Infineon.

12. Mark Martin: Finished 35th in first road course start with Hendrick Motorsports in 2009; Posted one win and 13 top 10s in previous 18 starts with Roush Racing; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 608) in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

13. Clint Bowyer: Second-best average finish (5.3) in the three races with the COT; Has finished eighth or better in last three starts; Will debut a new chassis (No. 300) in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

14. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 19.0 average finish in two starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Finished 26th last year after contact late in the race; Best finish in previous eight starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. was a pair of 11th-place runs; Nine laps led in 2004 race are only laps led; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 514) that raced in both road course events in 2009; This car was recently tested at Kershaw.

15. Ryan Newman: Finished 17th in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing last year; Has finished 20th or better in all eight starts at the track, including five top-10 finishes; 11th best average finish in COT (14.7).

16. Martin Truex Jr. Two top-20 finishes in four starts; 21.7 average finish with the COT; Had two days of pre-race study with Marcos Ambrose in May at VIR; Making track debut with Michael Waltrip Racing.

17. Joey Logano: Ran as high as eighth last year in track debut before making contact late in the race; Rallied back from 25th to finish 19th; Bringing same chassis (No. 234) that he used in both road course events last year.

18. Jamie McMurray: Has completed all but one lap at Sonoma in seven starts; 23.0 average finish with the COT; Finished a best second in 2004, which is only top 10 at track; Two front row starts, including one pole in 2007; Piloting Chassis No. 1012, which has yet to be raced, but was tested at VIR.

19. David Reutimann: 35.5 average finish in two starts at the track; Has taken several opportunities over the last few months to test at several tracks including in late models in Infineon and a special two-seater at VIR.

20. Juan Pablo Montoya: Won the 2007 race from the 32nd starting position; Leads all drivers with a 4.3 average finish in the three races with the COT; Has yet to lead a lap since his victory; Will debut a new chassis (No. 1014) that was tested at Virginia International Raceway.

21. Kasey Kahne: Defending race winner; Victory is only top-20 finish at the track and first Cup win on a road course; 19.0 average finish with the COT.

22. AJ Allmendinger: 22.0 average finish with two starts with the COT; Finished a track best seventh last year with Richard Petty Motorsports driving a Dodge; Bringing Chassis No. 257 that was tested at Road Atlanta.

23. Paul Menard: Posted track best 21st last year; 27.5 average finish in two starts with the COT; Piloting Chassis No. 254 that was used in this event last season but is untested after being completely rebuilt.

24. Brad Keselowski: Making first start Cup road course start this weekend; Team has adapted Chassis PRS-723 for this weekend's race, which was last driven to a 12th-place finish at Martinsville.

25. David Ragan: 28.7 average finish with the COT; Track best finish was 24th in 2008; Bringing same car (Chassis RK-627) that he finished 24th with at Watkins Glen last year and recently tested at Road Atlanta.

26. Scott Speed: Finished 37th in track debut last year driving for Joe Nemechek.

27. Sam Hornish Jr.: Bumped and banged his way to a 38th-place finish last year after running as high as sixth; 34.5 average finish in two starts.

28. Elliott Sadler: Ninth-best COT average (14.3); Five top-10 finishes in 11 starts, including a 10th-place finish last year in debut with Richard Petty Motorsports; Bringing Chassis No. 243, which was tested at VIR earlier this month.

29. Regan Smith: Finished 30th in only Cup start at track in 2007; Making Cup first road course start since Watkins Glen in August 2007.

30. Marcos Ambrose: Came back from rear of the field after an engine change in 2009 to finish third; Finished 42nd in only other Cup start at the track; Tested at both VIR and Watkins Glen recently.

Road skills needed for Toyota Save Mart 350
By Steve Makinen

NASCAR hits the road for the first time this weekend, or more specifically, the road course, as the Cup Series takes on the twists and turns on Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California. Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 is the first of two-season road racing events, races that seem to be generating more and more excitement each season. Once vilified by fans of the sport for the obvious differences from the schedule’s other races, these events have become widely embraced. Competition is fierce, there is plenty of beating and banging on the track at any given time, and the presence of road course “ringers” like Boris Said and P.J. Jones offer quite a changeup from the ovals. Still, even with the added talent and varied skills needed to win these races, it’s always a series regular that leaves with the checkered flag. The driver favored to do so this week is Tony Stewart, who at 5-1, is looking for his third win at Sonoma and 8th road course triumph overall.

There are several drivers who typically run up-front at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, the two road courses, and that collective group is reflected in the odds for this week. Besides Tony Stewart at 5-1, Jeff Gordon, Juan Montoya, and Marcos Ambrose are listed at 6-1, and Kyle Busch is 7-1. No one else is in single-digits. Stewart’s average finish at the two tracks since ’07 has been 3.7 in the last six races, all Top 10 finishes, and he has led 72 laps during that span. Gordon owns the most career wins and pole positions at Infineon, with five each. He is in a bit of a road win drought though, having gone 0 for 6 in the COT races since ’07. Juan Montoya has been very impressive at this facility, owning his only ever Cup Series win plus an average finish of 4.3 in three prior starts, despite starting with an average spot of 23.3. Ambrose, like Montoya, is a former road series driver, and thus is very comfortable at tracks like Sonoma. In his five road events in Cup over the last three years, he has three Top 5’s and an average finish of 12.5. He has yet to break into the win column though. Busch is the only driver other than Stewart to win more than one road race in the last three years, and he also leads the field with 155 laps led in that time frame.

Laps led are a very good indicator at road courses, since the laps don’t click away that fast and running out front is usually reserved for the best cars. In that sense, some of the other drivers you might want to consider for Sunday as potentially strong underdogs include the following, all of whom have led at least 30 laps in the last six road course events: Robby Gordon (51), Kasey Kahne (41), Jamie McMurray (36), Denny Hamlin (36), Jimmie Johnson (33), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (33). Of the six, Hamlin would be the least surprising winner, as he is red-hot of late, leading the series with five wins in 2010, and priced at a fair 12-1. Johnson is a season low 15-1, providing a good indicator of what the experts think of his chances, at least where winning is concerned. No one else in the group is better than 20-1, with Junior actually represented in the FIELD option for wagering, which in a group of 22 other drivers, would pay 10-1.

Some of the usual contenders that have really struggled on the road have been David Reutimann (32.3 avg. fin, 4 starts), Mark Martin (29.0 in two starts last season), Jeff Burton (24.2 avg. fin, 0 laps led), Kevin Harvick (23.0 avg, 0 LL’s), and Matt Kenseth (16.3 avg., 1-Top 10, 0 LL’s). All of these stats date back to the beginning of the ’07 season. Interestingly, Martin used to be one of the series’ top road course aces, however he seems to have lost some of that edge from taking the ’07 & ’08 seasons to run part-time, skipping these events. Also, with as sharp as the Roush Racing Team seems to be at tracks like Michigan, they have proven far from a contender at Infineon and Watkins Glen. In fact, Carl Edwards, on his best days, seems to be the only driver capable of running out front at any given time.

Road racing offers a number of new changes and challenges for the teams and drivers. Among the factors unique to the racing here are 12 turns, both left and right-handed, and long 1.99-mile laps that last in excess of a minute and 15 seconds. There are just a few turns of the 15’s where drivers can manage a pass though, as there is not much room on the track, especially with the new wider cars. In addition the fuel windows are timed such that many crew chiefs can roll the dice and gamble on fuel mileage. The number of cautions, as well as the threat of a green-white-checkered finish, always seems to play a huge factor in who wins. In essence, for every team, all the stars must align, including handling, horsepower, fuel, and timing of luck. One of the other interesting storylines every year at Sonoma and Watkins Glen is the presence of the “Road Course Ringers”. The group of drivers hoping to qualify for this year’s race includes Boris Said, P.J. Jones, Brandon Ash, Mattias Ekstrom, Jans Magnussen, and Brian Simo. Their familiarity gives them a sizeable advantage and they are normally contenders, but keep in mind, no ringer has yet to win in NASCAR’s top series.

After last Sunday’s 400-mile race at Michigan, win by Denny Hamlin, the standings have tightened quite a bit at the top. Kevin Harvick continues to set the pace, but is just 22-points in front of Kyle Busch, and 47-points ahead of Hamlin. Kurt Busch (-118) and Matt Kenseth (-150) are also within one-race striking distance of the lead. Holding down the key 12th place position is Mark Martin, with a 43-point cushion over Clint Bowyer. That spot is of course the cutoff for qualifying for the Chase, which is rapidly approaching. In fact, with 15 races down, there are only 11 to go before the postseason.

While the spots to pass and speeds at this track are limited, the dramatic track change and the storyline of “hired guns” taking on series regulars normally makes for an exciting race. The entire weekend gets started with qualifying at 6:35 pm ET on Friday. Starting position at Infineon used to prove more critical, but strangely, the average starting spot of the winner in the last five years here has been an unimpressive 17.0. Happy Hour rank has been significantly more important, with an average rank of 6.2. The race is scheduled for 3:19 PM ET on TNT Sunday. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to get you ready for all of the racing action…

Toyota/Save Mart 350: NASCAR Preview and Picks
By GREG ENGLE

After 15 races of left turns, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Sonoma California for the first of two road course races.

While there will be several road course ‘ringers’ (road course specialists who step in for one race), recent history shows that the NASCAR Sprint Cup regulars still shine during Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Infineon Raceway.

Favorites

Jeff Gordon (+500)

Gordon is NASCAR’s all-time leader in road-course victories with nine. Five of those came here at Infineon. In addition to those wins, he has 10 top fives, 13 top 10s and five poles. Gordon took part in a test on the road course at Watkins Glen in New York several weeks ago and heads to California this weekend primed for success.

Tony Stewart (+450)

Stewart is another road course ace. He’s second in the series behind Gordon with seven road course wins, and has two wins at Infineon along with four top fives, seven top 10s and one pole. With his recent upsurge, Stewart is a favorite to win it all this weekend.

Juan Pablo Montoya (+800)

Montoya returns to the site of his first and only win in the Sprint Cup Series. His win in 2007 was made all the more amazing considering that he started 32nd; the farthest back any winner has ever started. In addition to his win he has one top five and three top 10s. Despite recent struggles, Montoya has to be considered a threat this weekend.

Others to watch

Kyle Busch (+500)

Busch isn’t exactly known as a road course wiz, but he did surprise many when he won here in 2008. Besides his win he has one top five and two top 10 finishes. Busch and his Joe Gibbs Racing team are hot and cold each week. If they can hit the ground running, Busch might be in a position to surprise again Sunday.

Kasey Kahne (+3000)

Kahne heads to Infineon as the defending race winner. His win last year shocked the rest of the field and was the first of two wins last season. On top of his win, Kahne has a top five, a top 10 and a pole. Kahne should be considered a threat but a win would be just as shocking as it was last season.

Marcos Ambrose (+800)

The three-time Australian V8 Supercar champ is always a threat when NASCAR hits the road courses. He has top five finishes in four of his three non-oval races in the past two years. Last August, Ambrose scored his best Cup result when he finished second at Watkins Glen behind Tony Stewart. At Infineon he has one top five and one top 10 finish and could live up to his nickname of the Tasmanian Devil and spoil the weekend for many of the favorites by finally sealing the deal.

Head-to-head picks

Robby Gordon Vs. Boris Said

Sprint Cup regular Gordon usually shines on road courses and won here in 2003; he also has two top five and three top 10 finishes. Said is an accomplished road course ringer with four top 10 finishes at Infineon. This will be the matchup of the week, but look for Gordon to come out on top.

Jimmie Johnson vs. Greg Biffle

Johnson isn’t exactly known as a road course specialist but has two top fives and three top 10s. Likewise Biffle isn’t known for his road course prowess but has a nearly identical record with two top fives and two top 10s. Both have one DNF and that could be the difference Sunday. Look for Biffle to keep it together well enough to finish ahead of Johnson.

Kevin Harvick vs. Kurt Busch

Harvick has two top five and two top 10 finishes while Busch has three top five, three top 10s and one pole. Harvick will race conservatively to protect his points lead, Busch wants nothing more than to win and will no doubt let it all hang out. If he can keep the fenders on his Dodge, look for Busch to finish in front of Harvick.

Practice Notes - Sonoma
By Micah Roberts

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3

1. Marcos Ambrose 6/1 1st 6th 1st 1st

Has finished no worse than third-place in his last three Sprint Cup road race starts.

2. Jeff Gordon 5/1 7th 5th 21st 13th

Nine career road course wins; five wins at Sonoma with last coming in 2006.

3. Tony Stewart 5/1 32nd 7th 15th 23rd

Seven career road course wins; two wins at Sonoma. Won at Watkins Glen last year.

4. Kevin Harvick 12/1 5th 4th 6th 4th

Won at Watkins Glen in 2006, best Sonoma finish came in 2007 with second-place.

5. Juan Pablo Montoya 12/1 14th 14th 13th 12th

Won this race in 2007 and finished sixth the last two seasons; his best track in NASCAR.

6. Martin Truex Jr 40/1 10th 10th 5th 6th

Outstanding Saturday practice using a set-up similar to Ambrose. Won at Mexico in Nationwide series road race.

7. Denny Hamlin 12/1 16th 12th 7th 8th

Won 2006 Nationwide series race on Mexico’s road course. Finished fifth last year at Sonoma.

8. Jamie McMurray 40/1 24th 25th 9th 2nd

Best finish came in 2004 with second-place. Had one of the fastest cars during final practice.

Jimmie Johnson is the luckiest man I have ever seen. ???