I was hesitant all week on todays race and didn't make a single bet before qualifying since I thought they would have problems with the new surface at Las Vegas and boy was I ever correct but I have to make a bet or two to watch the race so here goes.
Kurt Busch 15/1
Denny Hamlin 30/1
Elliot Sadler 35/1
😉
UAW Daimler-Chrysler 400: Reconfiguring Vegas
by Brian Gabrielle
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
No, okay, it was pretty much just the best of times.
After getting shut out at the Daytona 500, for me the race in Fontana two weeks ago was a breath of fresh air: Matt Kenseth held on for the outright win, and Greg Biffle did his part by toppling Casey Mears in a head-to-head match-up. Kenseth's win gives us a nice big bankroll heading into a Vegas race that should be crazy.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway used to be a flat track: low banking in the turns, so brakes were extremely important. Now LVMS has been completely changed: it's got 20 degrees of banking in the turns, and eight degrees in the front and back stretches. These factors, plus a slick racing surface, should combine to make Sunday's race both incredibly fast and a crash-fest. Will Vegas now be the fastest track in Nextel Cup racing? It could very well be. In terms of configuration, the new Vegas is a lot like the new Homestead, and setups on these cars will be kissing cousins with the high-torque setups at Bristol and Dover. We should look at results from all those tracks (especially Homestead) when making our picks this week. Let's get to it.
Last Week: Kenseth's win at +1656 (and Biffle's H2H win at -180) made up for our Daytona failings. For the year, then, we sit at a positive net 1.48 units, on three total units wagered; that's a return of 49.3% on the young season.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+650), 1/6th unit. The #48 car was coming two Sundays ago, but Johnson made a rare mistake by speeding on Pit Row, and could never quite get back up front at the race's end. As it was, J.J. finished third at Fontana, signaling that his cookie-cutter program is alive and well. I've said this many times, but there's no better driver/chief combo than Johnson and Chad Knaus when it comes to adjusting that day's car to maximize a finish. Add to this mix the fact that Johnson has been very strong at the reconfigured Homestead (a second, a third, a ninth and a crash-induced 40th), and he's a great bet for Sunday.
Take Kasey Kahne (+500), 1/6th unit. Kahne was super-fast at Fontana, as befitting his status as the current king of the downforce tracks. Unfortunately, his engine exploded not even halfway through the race, giving him a terrible 38th-place finish. This Friday, Kahne was back to his old tricks at a downforce track, practicing fastest and then qualifying on the pole. You have to believe that the week off came at a good time for the #9 bunch; they went back to the shop, figured out what went wrong with the engine program at Fontana, and will go on from there. There's been some speculation that the changeover from leaded to unleaded fuel was somehow to blame for Kahne's woes, but that seems far-fetched. I think the Evernham engines hold together this week, and finish strong.
Take Kevin Harvick (+1200), 1/6th unit. Don't undervalue Happy. He probably should have two race wins already this year; he won at Daytona, of course, and he was tracking down Kenseth at Fontana with a faster car when a red flag came out, whereupon he suffered a flat tire and finished just 17th. Don't discount the value of momentum, and the Richard Childress cars have a ton of it. I also look at the #29's recent past at Homestead, Bristol and Dover, and see a pattern of excellence. At Homestead, Harvick has the second-best finishing average of any driver since the reconfiguration (behind only Greg Biffle (+2000)); he's finished second, fifth, eighth and 10th in those four events. He didn't look great in the first practice or qualifying, but his teammate Jeff Burton (+1200) did, and perhaps the #31 shares some notes with Happy. I still like this bet.
www.spreadexperts.com
I was hesitant all week on todays race and didn't make a single bet before qualifying since I thought they would have problems with the new surface at Las Vegas and boy was I ever correct but I have to make a bet or two to watch the race so here goes.
Kurt Busch 15/1
Denny Hamlin 30/1
Elliot Sadler 35/1
😉
1 Jimmie Johnson +430
2 Tony Stewart +950
3 Kasey Kahne +700
4 Matt Kenseth +750
5 Jeff Gordon +1200
6 Kevin Harvick +1200
7 Kyle Busch +1200
8 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
9 Greg Biffle +2800
10 Carl Edwards +2200
11 Jeff Burton +800
12 Denny Hamlin +3000
13 Kurt Busch +2500
14 Mark Martin +1500
15 Clint Bowyer +1500
16 Martin Truex Jr +6500
17 Scott Riggs +4000
18 Elliott Sadler +2800
19 Ryan Newman +8000
20 Casey Mears +5000
21 Jamie McMurray +5000
22 Reed Sorrenson +5000
23 Juan Montoya +3500
24 Field (All Others) +3000
Adding the field since I think anyone could win this race and I get 20 cars at a nice price.
Two laps in and we have the first crash 😀