Who's Up, Who's Down and What, If Anything, Can We Really Learn From Two Races?
By Buzz Cutler
As every good NASCAR fan knows, Newton’s third law of motion states, “Actioni contrariam semper et æqualem esse reactionem”. (And people say Latin is a dead language.) For those of you whose command of physics is superior to your command of Latin, the common translation is “To every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction.” In other words, if Stewart-Haas Racing is down, then Richard Petty Motorsports must be up.
Stewart-Haas Racing’s Ryan Newman has fully embraced the sophomore slump on behalf of his team. With an average finish of 35.0 so far, Newman is sitting in 38th place in the 2010 Owner’s Standings. While Newman hasn’t won a race since the 2008 Daytona 500, he did make the Chase in 2009 and had to be expecting a stronger start to 2010 than this.
So, what is the “equal and opposite reaction” to Ryan Newman’s travails? Scott Speed’s success …
At the end of last season, Speed’s No. 82 car sat just outside of the top 35 in Owner’s points. That means, of course, that he has to qualify for the first five races of this season on speed with no guaranteed starting spot. Not only has he accomplished that, but he also has an average finish of 15.0 for 2010.
Way back in December I picked Denny Hamlin to win the whole damn toastaquac in 2010, unseating Jimmie Johnson as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion. I didn’t climb out too terribly far on any limbs to do so, and many people were right there with me. Yet, Denny has yet to break the top 15. More than that, he’s yet to look terribly racy and has led a grand total of seven laps in the season’s first two races.
Paul Menard is the anti-Denny. That’s right, I said Paul Menard.
While I have been highly critical of Menard’s nepotistic career, he has managed to string together top twenty finishes two-weeks in a row. While that might seem an underwhelming accomplishment, he’s only done it one other time in his career: in 2008 he followed up a 16th place showing at Martinsville with a 17th place run at Texas, the sixth and seventh races of that season.
Richard Childress Racing has been close to victory while powering to the top of the standings. Roush Fenway Racing still seems to be missing something.
Joey Logano is ranked inside the top 10. Jeff Gordon sits outside the top 20.
Tony Stewart has yet to lead a lap. A.J. Allmendinger has led 11.
David Reutimann is ranked 8th. Kasey Kahne is 33rd.
It’s not too late for Ryan, Denny, Kasey & Jeff. Scott, Paul, Joey & A.J. are far from sure things. While our tendency is to react to each race as if it is a litmus test for the entire season, we need to be careful about making pronouncements after just two races. Yet, two races are all we have so what in the hell else are supposed to do?
Watch Las Vegas and Atlanta carefully. The story lines that have begun to take root will either fly or die at those two tracks. Then, we’ll start a short-track run through Bristol, Martinsville and Phoenix, switch from a wing to a spoiler, and throw out everything we thought we knew about 2010.