2009 National League Central preview
By David Chan
Chicago Cubs (97-64, 1st in Central)
Predicted 2009 finish: First place
The NL Central is the Cubs’ to lose again in 2009, as they return a veteran group that will be looking for its third straight division crown.
The Cubs lineup will look much the same as it did a year ago, with one exception. Milton Bradley will assume the clean-up role, provided he's healthy when the regular season gets underway. Despite rumors to the contrary, Alfonso Soriano will remain in the leadoff spot.
Kosuke Fukodome may have to split time with Reed Johnson. Last year Fukudome's production trailed off considerably down the stretch. Lou Piniella is hoping he'll be a good fit batting second. Hitting grade: A-
Carlos Zambrano will again take the ball on Opening Day. He'll be the ace of one of the strongest rotations in the National League. Of course, that statement hinges on the injury status of Rich Harden. He continues to battle through right shoulder problems but all indications are that he'll be ready to make his first start of the season.
Kerry Wood left for Cleveland, but the Cubs signed former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg to fill his role. Carlos Marmol could also close games should Gregg struggle. Jeff Samardzija will try to improve on a strong rookie season, while guys like Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, and Luis Viscain take over for Bob Howry, Scott Eyre, and Michael Wuertz. Pitching grade: A-
St. Louis Cardinals (86-76, 4th in Central)
Predicted 2009 finish: Second place
If anyone is going to give the Cubs a run, it's going to be the Cardinals.
The Cards owned a league-best .281 batting average last season and should be near or at the top again in 2009. Their lineup is familiar outside of Khalil Greene at shortstop. He has had a tremendous spring, batting better than .400 while cutting down on his strikeout numbers considerably.
I'm not sold on Chris Duncan batting clean-up, but the situation sets up nicely for him with Albert Pujols batting third and Ryan Ludwick fifth. He missed most of last season due to injury. Troy Glaus will be out until June, leaving the door open for rookie third baseman David Freese. He hit over .300 with 91 RBI at the AAA level last season. Hitting grade: A-
The Cardinals rotation features five right-handers including Chris Carpenter, who is back at full strength after missing the bulk of the last two seasons. Kyle Lohse is penciled in behind Adam Wainwright. Lohse won 15 games a year ago, but now has the pressure of performing under a gaudy new contract.
Rookie Jason Motte will get a shot at the closer's role, at least until Chris Perez is healthy. Kyle McLellan will need to build on a solid rookie season while Brad Thompson will be called upon to bounce back in order for this group to succeed. Pitching grade: B+
Houston Astros (86-75, 3rd in Central)
Predicted 2009 finish: Third place
Astros manager Cecil Cooper is quick to scoff at the so-called experts that have them finishing near the bottom of the Central in '09.
“We’re going to be in the lower rung of our division (according to predictions),” he told reporters. “ I don’t believe that.”
I'll cut Cooper some slack.
Even after subpar Spring, the Astros are still primed to be one of the best hitting teams in the NL Ivan Rodriguez gives them some much needed leadership, while the middle of their order is downright scary with Berkman, Lee, Tejada, and Pence.
Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn provide a great deal of speed at the top of the order. The Astros could use some more production from third base, where Geoff Blum still holds down a job. Hitting grade: B+
Any rotation that starts with Roy Oswalt should be in pretty good shape. The problem I see is that this rotation also includes Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz. Both have pitched well this spring, but I question whether that success will carry over into the regular season.
Their bullpen is one of the best in the business, lead by closer Jose Valverde. The 'Stros have a lot of depth in the bullpen and that's imperative as their rotation doesn't feature many innings eaters outside of Oswalt. Pitching grade: B+
Milwaukee Brewers (90-72, 2nd in Central)
Predicted 2009 finish: Fourth place
After finding their way into the playoffs last season, the Brewers have done some minor re-tooling entering the '09 campaign. I don't think it's enough to keep them from slipping a couple of spots.
None of that re-tooling involved their offense. They'll return all eight of their position players and that's not a bad thing. The only real question is whether Ricky Weeks can hold down the leadoff spot after a poor '08 season.
J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart flank Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder and both have been swinging the bat well in the spring. The Brew Crew will need some more production out of the bottom third of their order, which includes Mike Cameron, Bill Hall and Jason Kendall. Hitting grade: B
The Brewers are trying to get better on the mound, but adding oft-injured Braden Looper to the rotation isn't the answer. Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra have plenty of upside, but neither are ready to be a top-level starter. The Opening Day nod will go to Jeff Suppan, who continues on the downward slope of his career.
Newly signed closer Trevor Hoffman will begin the season on the DL. That job could belong to Seth McClung for now, and that's a scary thought. Jorge Julio joins his sixth team in the last four seasons and has been wildly inconsistent this spring. Pitching grade: C
Cincinnati Reds (74-88, 5th in Central)
Predicted 2009 finish: Fifth place
With a renewed emphasis on speed and defense, the Reds could show some improvement. But it won't be enough to move them up the ladder in the crowded Central.
Willy Taveras isn't your typical leadoff hitter and doesn't get on base all that often. With that said, he did steal 63 bases last season and should give the Reds some spark. The sky is the limit for Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce but the rest of the order is filled with question marks.
Last year Jeff Keppinger, Chris Dickerson, and Paul Janish found themselves playing every day at times, but all three will likely start this season either on the bench or in the minors. Hitting grade: C+
The Reds pitching staff turned in an impressive spring, but how will it fare once the games count for real?
The top of the rotation looks solid with Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo. The back side has plenty of potential with Johnny Cueto and Micah Owings. Homer Bailey could also find his way into the group should Cueto or Owings miss a step.
With a veteran group of relievers, Cincinnati's bullpen looks markedly stronger than in years' past. As closer Francisco Cordero goes, so will this unit. Pitching grade: B-
Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95, 6th in Central)
Predicted 2009 finish: Sixth place
The Pirates are optimistic heading into the new season, but I'm not sure why.
Their lineup is average at best and remains unchanged from the order we saw at the end of last season. They'll hit well for average, but only Adam Laroche and Nate McClouth have hit 20 home runs in a season.
I'm not sure that McClouth can match the numbers he put up a year ago and if he doesn't, the Bucs are going to be in trouble. Youngsters Brandon Moss and Andy Laroche will be counted on to produce after playing every day late last season. Hitting grade: C
Is this the year that the Pirates young starting rotation lives up to expectations? This group should be good, but not great. Paul Maholm finished strong last season and has pitched well this spring. Ian Snell gained some experience pitching in the World Baseball Classic while Zach Duke and Ross Ohlendorf were surprisingly effective in March.
The Pirates 'pen is in a state of flux. Beyond Matt Capps and John Grabow, there isn't much consistency. Should their starters falter, they're going to have a tough time bridging the gap from the fifth to eighth innings with guys like Sean Burnett, Craig Hansen, and Even Meek. Pitching grade: C+