Tuesday 7/19/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL, NCAAF, CFL & WNBA games
Jon Bollman's expert pick (posted Monday)
Obviously, this is an All-Star game so both teams are absolutely stacked. There are about 40 players on each team, including the legacy adds in Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, so it will be literally impossible to know who will pitch and who will get the at-bats. With that being said, I highly recommend to just bet this game for fun because honestly, we don't really know who will even be playing in it. There is also no incentive for either side to win anymore now that home field advantage in the World Series is determined by the team with the best record.
However, the American League has been absolutely dominating this game lately. They have won eight straight, and they are 20-3-1 in their last 24 games played. These games are also usually very-low scoring as well, 11 of the last 13 games have come in under this number. There is just so much pitching talent and all the starting pitcher's pitches play up. That means their fastballs are harder, their breaking pitches break more, and they have their best control because they know they only have to pitch an inning instead of getting deep in the game and working through a lineup. I like the American League starting lineup better than I do the National League and that's the only confirmation we have of certain players appearing in this game. The starters usually get two plate appearances, so I will go with the American League knowing they have the best starting lineup and the matchup history. I really like the American League in this matchup, and I would lean towards the under as well.
American League +100 over National League (Lean: Under 8)
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Micah Roberts' expert picks
American League +100
Under 8
The American League has won the last eight MLB All-Star Games to take a 46-43-2 all-time lead. The AL is 20-3-1 in the last 24 Midsummer Classics. What in the world could I say that would make me bet the National League with the horrible run it is on?
Because the game is at Dodger Stadium and the NL won 4-2 when it last was held there in 1980? Because the Dodgers have six players on the NL squad and the home crowd will inspire them the same way it did when Los Angeles' Jerry Reuss notched the win 42 years ago?
No matter how many comparisons you use with hitter-pitcher matchups, you're likely not going to find a solid answer that will help you win a bet. We have to realize that this is an exhibition game, albeit the best All-Star Game format of any sport. The All-Star player hits for himself, fields for himself and pitches for himself, all at a high level.
The AL's winning streak is the only thing that makes logical sense to bet on, and even then, I'm only betting a few dollars to make my viewing of the game more interesting. My wager on Tuesday's contest will be a small fraction of what I bet on meaningful games in which I feel I have an edge. There is no edge here.
My dream result would be the AL winning a low-scoring game with Shohei Ohtani notching the victory for the second consecutive year, a feat last accomplished by Bruce Sutter in 1978-79. The Los Angeles Angels have been so bad this season despite the fact Ohtani has put up great numbers that it only would seem fitting that he goes into the Angels' big brothers' house, does some damage at the plate, and wins the game.
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