3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info
By Doug Upstone
The oddsmakers have done their work well accordingly to most sports bettors, as the Line Moves have been sparse on the money line side. The greatest amount of action has occurred on the totals, where the numbers have been changing like a traffic stop light. Here are today’s most notable wagering alterations.
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia 7:05 EDT
The Dodgers and Phillies had a slugfest last night, touching home plate 24 times on 32 base hits. Game 2 in the series appears to be a potential pitching matchup with Chad Billingsley (9-6, 3.82 ERA) and Roy Oswalt (6-13, 3.50) going head to head. Billingsley has been special, with the right-hander dialing up 0.98 ERA in his last four starts. Oswalt was much calmer in his second start in Philadelphia uniform and he is 6-3 with a 3.47 ERA in his career against L.A. Online sports bettors don’t see this matchup that way and this contest has moved upward to 8, from starting number of 7.5. One explanation for this is Billingsley is 1-3 with 5.07 ERA against the Phils; however Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are still on the DL. The road team is 12-3 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season. The Phillies come in 26-12 UNDER after a contest with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last two seasons. Personally, I would recommend the Under.
Baltimore at Cleveland 7:05 EDT
For those that don’t believe attitude is everything, I present the Baltimore Orioles. You might not win a championship with Buck Showalter as your manager; however he will take a team stuck in the doldrums and start them heading in a positive direction. The Orioles are 7-1 since Showalter started running the show and they are winning with pitching, hitting and defense, covering all the details. No wonder Baltimore has gone from +135 ML underdogs to +124 or lower. For those betting on sports, these Birds are the classic “forget the numbers” team, you bet Baltimore because they are playing well, period.
N.Y. Yankees at Texas 8:05 EDT ESPN
Sports bettors tempted fate and got burned here yesterday on the total and are coming right back at it again. The Yankees and Rangers had a total of 7.5 on the overnight line and have been bumped up to 8. It would seem Cliff Lee (10-5, 2.44) isn’t the rationale behind such wagering prospects, but Javier Vazquez (9-8, 4.63) would whet the appetite for Over players. Vazquez has inefficient 5.32 ERA since the All-Star break and is 9-1 OVER against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the past two years. (Team's Record) During that same expanse of time, Lee is 20-8 UNDER and the Yankees are 12-3 UNDER after two or more straight defeats. With the Rangers 13-4 UNDER vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the campaign, the wagering masses could be incorrect again.
Minnesota at Chic. White Sox 8:10 EDT WGN
Minnesota continued its hot-hitting ways in 12-6 thumping of the White Sox to take over first place in the division. The Twins are averaging 6.5 runs per game in putting together 15-4 record since July 21. Those with the cash to wager are using this information as sports betting tips to go along with Lew Perkins being the Minnesota starting pitcher. The total opened at 8.5 and faster than an elevator ride to the top of the former Sears Tower (now Willis Tower), the number sped to 9.5. Perkins is back in the Twins rotation for the first time since 2009 and has 5.96 ERA in four starts against the White Sox. John Danks (11-8, 3.30) has the second best AL batting average against RH hitters at .194; nevertheless he is 5-6 with a 5.28 ERA in 16 starts against the Twins. Chicago is 34-14 OVER as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last three years and Minnesota 14-5 OVER in August road tilts since last year, thus the adjustment makes sense.
3DW Bonus Info
Money Line Nugget
Cleveland is 1-10 (-12.0 Units) at home after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for four or more runs over the last two seasons.
Totals Nugget
The Chicago Cubs are 30-10 UNDER vs. teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.350 to 1.450 this year.
Run Line Nugget
The New York Mets are 9-0 (+12.7 Units) against the run line at Citi Field after two straight games with no home runs in 2010, winning by 4.5 RPG.