3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info
By Doug Upstone
Sports betting fans everywhere are pumped with the first week of the NFL preseason starting tonight. One game in particular has drawn interest in side action. A number of baseball games have seen money line and totals action moving the digits in different directions; let’s delve into what is happening.
MLB -Florida at Washington 7:05 EST MASN2
The Nationals are getting a career year performance from Livan Hernandez (8-7, 3.03 ERA) and not taking advantage of it. Hernandez’s earned run average is at its lowest level since he was a rookie with Florida in 1997 making 17 starts (3.18). The 35-year old right-hander has permitted more than one earned run once in his last five starts, yet is 2-2 and Washington is 2-3. With the Marlins Ricky Nolasco (12-8, 4.57) having won seven of previous nine starts, is it any wonder the sports betting public has downsized the Nats from -114 on the money line to -104 or less. It’s hard to argue with the betting trend since Florida and Nolasco are 9-0 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game over the last three seasons.
MLB- Baltimore at Cleveland 7:05 EDT MASN
This is like the movie “Goundhog Day”, where linemakers keep listing Baltimore at one number and online sports bettors keep backing the smokin’ hot Orioles. The bustling Birds are 8-1 with skipper Buck Showalter calling the shots and after starting the day at +139, they have fallen like Spencer Pratt’s acting career (?) to +123 or lower. The only game Baltimore has lost is one Kevin Millwood (2-11, 5.84) has started and he goes tonight, however in that case he deserved a better fate after allowing just one run on six innings. Rookie Jeanmar Gomez (2-0, 1.56) has been sharp for Cleveland; nonetheless the Indians are toiling again with four consecutive losses. Baltimore is playing with a great deal of swagger and won’t be easy out, yet the Tribe is 11-5 after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season.
MLB- L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia 7:05 EDT
Clayton Kershaw (10-7, 3.19) of the Dodgers is usually bounced around by the Phillies with 0-4 record and ailing 7.20 ERA. At least the left-hander won’t have to face three of the most productive bats in the lineup with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino, all who are out with injuries. The combination of Kershaw’s woes with Philly and Joe Blanton’s general ineffectiveness (4-6, 5.65) has those betting on sports pushing the total up to 8.5 from 8. The Phillies are 18-6-2 OVER when Blanton takes the ball and L.A. is 4-1 OVER after scoring two or less runs, but keep this in mind. Philadelphia is 11-3 UNDER at home against left-handed starters this year and Kershaw is 11-4 UNDER in previous 15 road starting assignments.
MLB - N.Y. Yankees at Kansas City 8:10 EDT YES
The total on this AL tilt went from 8.5 to 9. The Yankees had confidence building 7-6 come from behind win over Texas last night and should be able to score at will against Bruce Chen (1-4, 6.29 vs. New York) of Kansas City, who is 17-5 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs game in the second half of the year in his career. (Team's Record) The rest boils down to C.C. Sabathia and does he continue to stay focused. Sabathia (14-5, 3.14) hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since May 29 to Cleveland, yet is 7-3 OVER in past 10 road outings against losing teams. Of the last 17 matchups between these clubs, 12 have fallen below the total including five of six at Kauffman Stadium.
NFL- Oakland at Dallas 9:00 EDT
The Cowboys gave a strong showing against Cincinnati in their 16-7 win in the Hall of Fame game, which has led football bettors to believe they might go thru the motions tonight. The original number was Dallas a -4.5, but has since cascaded to -3. The Cowboys are notorious poor favorites at 18-31 ATS and are 6-20 ATS in their first two contests of the preseason. Most see Oakland improving this season, but a .500 season is about as far out as a General Motors electric car. Not sure of the relevance, nevertheless, worth noting the Raiders are 0-7 AT in road games when played on a Thursday, losing by 16 points a try.
3DW Bonus Info
ATS Nugget
The New Orleans Saints are 22-9 ATS as a road underdog the last 16 years.
Totals Nugget
Florida is 23-3 OVER after two or more consecutive wins this season, with average total score of 11.5 RPG.
Run Line Nugget
San Diego is 16-4 (+14.4 Units) against the run line vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more run a game in 2010, winning by 3.5 RPG.
Thanks Clinton, haven't seen updated the last few days and liked checking it out daily.
No problem Blade, glad to be of service.