A Tribe Called 'Over'
By Kevin Rogers
The Indians have been the biggest money-burner in the American League through the first six weeks of the season, losing bettors over ten units if you sided with the Tribe every game this season. While it may not be the greatest strategy to start fading Eric Wedge's club right now, it may be wise to look at Cleveland's propensity to eclipse the 'over' on the road. Through Sunday's game at Tampa Bay, the Indians have hit the 'over' in 16 of 21 games away from Progressive Field. Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Pedro Cerrano aren't walking to the plate anymore for the Indians, so how is Cleveland involved in so many high-scoring affairs?
First things, first. What is the reason for the substantial number of 'over' tickets on the road for the Indians? Is it great hitting? Is it a lack of starting pitching? Is it bullpen issues? A resounding "yes" to the final two two questions. The Indians rank second-to-last in the league in ERA at 5.59, while the 'pen is third-to-last in baseball with an ERA of 5.78. Last year's AL Cy Young Award Winner Cliff Lee is slowly finding the magic he possessed on the mound in 2008, producing six consecutive quality starts following two horrible starts to begin the season. Lee's biggest issue recently has been run support. The Indians lefty has received six runs from his offense in his last five starts, while pitching seven innings or more in each of those outings. Not surprising, all five of those games have gone 'under' the total, but just one has come on the road, a 3-1 setback at Detroit earlier this month.
Fausto Carmona has compiled just two quality starts this season, while allowing at least four earned runs in each of his six other starts. The 'over' has hit consistently when Carmona toes the rubber on the road, doing so four of five times. To be fair and not to skew numbers, if you remove the 22-4 beatdown of the Yankees last month in which Carmona took the hill, the average number of runs scored when Carmona starts on the road is still a resounding 13.25/game in the other four starts. Carmona has failed to find the stuff he had in 2007 when he helped the Indians to 19 wins and a spot in the ALCS against the Red Sox. The reason that '07 season is brought up, there is a stark contrast from that successful season compared to the last two with Carmona when he pitches on the road. Since the start of the '08 season, the 'over' has hit for Carmona away from Cleveland 11 of 14 times. In the 19-win season of '07, the 'under' hit 11 of 15 times in the regular season. A left hip strain sidelined Carmona for two months last season, and he has not been able to get his sinkerball to work as well when the Indians played lower-scoring games in his career season two years ago.
Carl Pavano signed with the Indians this past offseason after his disastarous tenure with the Yankees, starting 26 games in four seasons. Pavano struggled to begin this season, with Cleveland dropping his first four starts, including a one-inning, nine-run performance in his debut at Texas. Pavano has pitched better recently, with the Tribe winning three of Pavano's last four starts. Pavano does deserve credit for the competition he has faced on the road, squaring off against the Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, and Yankees over the last month, all teams in the top-half of the league in batting average.
The acquisiton of Kerry Wood from the Cubs hasn't lived up to the billing. Wood has saved five games this season, and despite blowing only one save opportunity, his ERA sits at 5.84. The buffer zone from the starter keeping the lead until getting to Wood has been the unreliable middle relief staff. Lefty Rafael Perez and his ERA of 15.19 have been sent down to Triple-A Columbus. Jensen Lewis has blown four saves this season, but has pitched better recently, allowing four hits and two runs (one unearned) in his last four appearances.
Catcher Victor Martinez has been the bright spot of the Cleveland lineup, leading the American League in batting average at .401, an OPS of 1.109, and hits with 61. The Indians have tallied the most runs in baseball on the road with 125, but have allowed the second-most runs away from home with 133. Cleveland is still scoring plenty of runs even without their top power hitter, Travis Hafner, who is on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder. Hafner has played in 17 games this season, knocking out four home runs and batting .270, but is on his way back to the big club, currently on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus.
Will the Indians road-scoring barrage keep up in the long run? Cleveland continues their ten-game road trip Tuesday night in Kansas City against the Royals. The Indians are due to face the league's ERA leader, Zack Greinke on Thursday afternoon, as the Royals have gone 'under' in six of Greinke's eight starts. The Tribe then follows up that series with an interleague battle against cross-state rival Cincinnati Friday night. The Indians will then play 17 of their next 23 games by the Lake, but in this current stretch of road games, Cleveland will have an opportunity to make bettors cash by taking the 'over.'
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