Aces high and low: Betting baseball's best arms
By The Miller Group.
May is winding down and we're beginning to see the cream rise to the top when it comes to staff aces.
Here's a look at two to play and two to fade in the coming weeks.
The best of the best
Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers knew they had a future ace when they picked Chad Billingsley in the first round of the 2003 draft. But did they know he would be so good, so fast?
Billingsley is a winner - simple as that.
This is his fourth big league season and all he's done so far is post a 40-20 record to go along with a 3.22 earned run average. He's getting better with each passing season and, here in 2009, he's putting it all together.
Through eight starts, Billingsley is 5-1 with a sparkling 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning). Opponents are hitting just .206 against him, amassing only 37 hits in 54 2-3 innings.
The best part is we're still not required to pay a tariff to back Billingsley. On Tuesday night against the Mets you only have to lay 30 cents to back the Dodgers with their ace on the mound.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
The wins haven't started piling up yet, but make no mistake; Jered Weaver is in the zone right now.
Weaver has been plagued by a lack of run support so far this season, a big reason why he has only three wins to his credit. The Halo bats have provided him with only three runs to work with over his last two outings, both losses.
But Weaver continues to pitch well.
He owns a solid 2.59 ERA and an eye-popping 0.97 WHIP as we enter the final week of May. Over his last five starts he has allowed only 20 hits and nine earned runs over 37 innings of work.
I haven't been the biggest Weaver supporters in recent years, but I believe he's coming into his own in his third full season in the majors.
As the weather heats up, so will the Angels bats, and Weaver should be a solid investment in the coming weeks.
Cold as ace
John Danks, Chicago White Sox
Danks wasn't considered the White Sox’s ace entering the season, but he assumed the role thanks to a red hot start. The wheels have come off since then.
After three masterful outings in April, Danks has stunk up the joint in three of his last four starts.
Over that four-start stretch, Danks has allowed 31 hits and 18 earned runs over 18 1-3 innings. His strikeout numbers have been way down in his losses, a sign that he's relying too much on getting guys out by way of the 'K’.
The Sox offense is putrid right now, and that won't help Danks' cause as he tries to shake out of his slump.
James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays
James Shields was a huge part of the Rays’ surprising run to the World Series last season, but he's been unable to pick up where he left off here in '09.
What worries the Rays is that Shields isn't traditionally a slow starter. Prior to this season he was 8-3 in pre-June starts.
So far this season Shields is 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA and things could be even worse were it not for some solid defense behind him. He has been getting hit hard, allowing 56 hits in 52 innings.
Over Shields' last two starts he has been tagged for 20 hits and seven earned runs and lasted just 11 innings.
Five of his eight starts have come on the road, where he owns a 13-19 record and 4.71 ERA over the course of his career.